National Bank Of Greece S.a. · ATHEX:ETE
National Bank Of Greece — Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation
46 slides from National Bank Of Greece's earnings presentation, Nov 7, 2024
Slide 1: 3Q24 Financial Results
3Q24 Financial Results 7 November 2024
Slide 2: Table of Contents
Table of Contents 01 Key Financial Highlights 02 Financial Results in Detail 03 Macro 04 ESG Update 05 Transformation Program Update 06 Appendix 2
Slide 3: 01 Key Financial Highlights
01 Key Financial Highlights 3
Slide 4: Strong performance continues despite lower rates
01 Key Financial Highlights Strong performance continues despite lower rates RoTE | % C:CI | % Loan balances | € b CET1, PAT | € b Core PPI | € b Total Capital | % Core RoTE 17.5% C:CI 30.5% Loan expansion €0.9b Including the 9M24 accrual for a 40% payout in 2025 out ytd of 2024 profits of c0.9% Cor
Slide 5: Key metrics continue to improve
01 Key Financial Highlights Key metrics continue to improve Core PAT | € m Core RoTE | % +15% yoy TBV €6.8b TBV €7.7b 983 855 17.8% 17.5% Before adjusting for excess capital 284 6.9% 9M22 9M23 9M24 9M22 9M23 9M24 Cost to Core Income | % EPS¹ | € TBVPS €7.4 TBVPS €8.4 48.3% 31.4% 1.43 30.5% 1.25 0.41
Slide 6: Deposits increase despite a large shift to fee-generating MFs; deposit mix also improves
01 Key Financial Highlights Deposits increase despite a large shift to fee-generating MFs; deposit mix also improves NBG Domestic Deposit flows (€ b) NBG Deposit¹ mix (%) +€0.4b -€0.3b 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% -€0.3b or 18% 19% 19% 18% 17% -3% qoq -€0.2b -€0.1b 1H24 3Q24 NBG Mutual Funds (€ b) +€0.3b or +20%
Slide 7: Comfortably inside our FY24 guidance
01 Key Financial Highlights Comfortably inside our FY24 guidance Financial performance metrics Actual Guidance FY24 NII expected to surpass FY23 levels, driving Core Income higher P&L KPIs 9M24 FY24E Net Interest Margin (bps) 322 >300 Cost to Core Income 30% <33% FY24 CoR remains on a normalization
Slide 8: 02 Financial Results in Detail
02 Financial Results in Detail 8
Slide 9: 9M24 Group core PAT at €1b (+15% yoy, +4% qoq) supported by resilient NII
02 Financial Results in Detail 9Μ24 Group core PAT at €1b (+15% yoy, +4% qoq) supported by resilient NII and strong Fee income P&L Highlights P&L | Group (€ m) 9M24 9M23 YoY 3Q24 QoQ 9M24 Group core PAT at €983m, up by +15% yoy, on the back of NII resilience (+9% yoy), NII 1,782 1,640 +9% 589 +0% Ne
Slide 10: Well capitalized and highly liquid B/S remains a key comparative advantage
02 Financial Results in Detail Well capitalized and highly liquid B/S remains a key comparative advantage Balance sheet Highlights Key Balance Sheet items & ratios | Group Key Balance sheet items 9M24 6M24 3M24 FY23 9M23 • Loan expansion in 9M24 stood at nearly €1b ytd, reflecting corporate disburse
Slide 11: Strong capital generation continues, driven by recurring profitability
02 Financial Results in Detail Strong capital generation continues, driven by recurring profitability 9M24 capital movement¹ 21.5% c22.5% PF for CAD 20.2% +c2.7% rating related RWA relief -c0.5% -c0.5% -c0.9% 9M24 accrual for a 40% payout 19.6% 18.7% 17.8% c19.7% PF for CET1 rating related RWA relie
Slide 12: Deferred Tax Credits down to zero by 2032-33 through amortization acceleration
02 Financial Results in Detail Deferred Tax Credits down to zero by 2032-33 (vs 2041) through amortization acceleration NBG’s capital strength and distribution options improve Deferred Tax Credits over CET1⁴ | % DTC current balance €3.5b 55% The framework’s impact on NBG’s DTC amortization (yearly)
Slide 13: A stand-out Balance Sheet: well-capitalized and highly-liquid
02 Financial Results in Detail A stand-out Balance Sheet: well-capitalized and highly-liquid Group Assets1 (€ b) Group Liabilities1 (€ b) Interbank 2.0 Cash & reserves 8.4 Excess liquidity at €9.0b (post full repayment of TLTRO) Interbank 2.7 Securities portfolio +0.5b qoq Securities² 18.2 HTC €14.3
Slide 14: Core PAT edges higher towards €1b, fueled by core income growth and normalizing credit costs
02 Financial Results in Detail Core PAT edges higher towards €1b, fueled by core income growth and normalizing credit costs Group core PAT (€ m) Group Core PAT (€ m) Yoy +9% +14% +4%¹ -9% +15% yoy 983 +15% yoy 855 +142 +40 82 +16 983 +3 -27 63 -13 -32 Non core income 855 Core PPI 1,456 +11% yoy 1,31
Slide 15: NII & NIM remain strong, absorbing lower rates
02 Financial Results in Detail NII & NIM remain strong, absorbing lower rates Group NII (€ m), Group NIM (bps) Domestic NII breakdown (€ m) -2bps -17bps NIM¹ (Group) 322 337 326 322 320 qoq from peak -25bps -40bps 563 594 578 561 563 3M Euribor (avg) 378 396 392 381 qoq from 356 peak 623 Due to lowe
Slide 16: PEs +€1b higher ytd, on a seasonally weak 3Q24; lending spreads resilient
02 Financial Results in Detail PEs +€1b higher ytd, on a seasonally weak 3Q24; Disbursements at c€1b in Oct24; Lending spreads resilient Group Performing loan evolution (€ b) Loan disbursements¹ (€ b) Greek PE lending spreads² (bps) 9M23 9M24 Group 29.6 30.5 31.4 +6% yoy Total 4.4 5.2 Performing 234
Slide 17: Deposits set to support NII through an improving mix
02 Financial Results in Detail Deposits set to support NII through an improving mix Group deposits evolution (€ b) Greek deposit spreads¹ (bps) Group 56.3 57.1 55.6 57.1 57.0 +€0.7b yoy Demand Spread drop 373 390 386 375 350 reflects Euribor Int’l 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 movement 54.4 55.1 54.9 54.8 +€0
Slide 18: Strong net cash position supports NII and NIM
02 Financial Results in Detail Strong net cash position supports NII and NIM Cash & reserves, Net Interbank (€ b) NBG Funding Cost (bps) 378 396 392 381 NBG is a net lender in 356 3M Euribor (avg) 7.4 8.0 9.0 336 the interbank market 264 8.4 9.0 8.4 TLTRO TLTRO fully repaid since 58 66 77 80 77 73 C
Slide 19: Fees continue growing in double digits +14% yoy
02 Financial Results in Detail Fees continue growing in double digits +14% yoy, led by increased use of bank payments and investment products Group fees (€ m) Domestic retail fees (€ m) Fees/Assets 49bps 57bps ΥοΥ ΥοΥ 171 +17% 313 +14% 273 12 146 20 +15% 21 12 14 Deposits 18 43 +18% 109 37 101 Payme
Slide 20: Recurring expenses continue to be contained (+4% yoy) despite inflation
02 Financial Results in Detail Recurring expenses continue to be contained (+4% yoy) despite inflation, with C:CI at 30.5% Group C:CI (%) Group headcount (#k) Optimization supported by digital strategy 19.8 implementation Cost/ core income % 31.4 30.5 -1.0pps yoy 7.8 6.6 at Bank level Personnel cost
Slide 21: Favorable asset quality trends, allow for a sustained CoR normalization
02 Financial Results in Detail Favorable asset quality trends, allow for a sustained CoR normalization Domestic NPE stock per category | 3Q24 (€ b) NPE balance change (€ b, Bank) o/w: €0.3b or c31% <30dpd o/w: €0.1b or c46% <30dpd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 NPE inflows (+) 0.1 0.7 0.7 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Curin
Slide 22: FNPE stock comprises mostly of <30dpd exposures
02 Financial Results in Detail FNPE stock comprises mostly of <30dpd exposures NPE ratios and coverage | 3Q24 Domestic forborne stock (€ b) | 3Q24 Collateral coverage¹ 70% 62% 66% FNPEs <30 dpd 0.3 NPE coverage NPE ratio 4.6% at c86% FPEs 0.9 FNPEs 31-90dpd 3.3% 3.3% €1.4b 0.0 2.7% FNPEs >90dpd 0.1
Slide 23: Sector leading coverage levels across stages
02 Financial Results in Detail Sector leading coverage levels across stages Group gross loan stage evolution (€ b) Group S2 ratio and coverage (%) Group S3 ratio and coverage (%) Δ yoy 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 Stage 3 -0.1 o/w: €0.9b FPEs €1.2b SICR 10.7% €0.3b +30dpd 9.3% Stage 2 3.5 3.1 2.6 2.4 -1.1 7.4% 7
Slide 24: 03 Macro
NATIONAL BANK @ OF GREECE 03 Macro
Slide 25: Sustained growth trajectory buoyed by strong demand and robust business activity
03 Macro Sustained growth trajectory buoyed by strong demand and robust business activity GDP growth accelerated to 2.3% yoy in 2Q24 (1.1% qoq s.a., the strongest quarterly GDP growth to 10 contributions yoy 10 exceed 2.0% in 2024 in pps pace in the EA), from 2.1% in 1Q24, outpacing the EA average f
Slide 26: On track for investment-led growth combined with a revived labor market
03 Macro On track for investment-led growth combined with a revived labor market Investment-related indicators point to a further strengthening in GFCF: Key macroeconomic 180 index, and financial 168 − Capacity utilization rates in industry and services close to all-time highs in 3Q24. 170 2017=100
Slide 27: Resilient business performance led by industry and services sectors
03 Macro Resilient business performance led by industry and services sectors Sustained growth of 50 yoy, 50 Industrial GVA at record 3 3 business activity until highs, accounting for 80% contributions in pps yoy 2m m.a. August 2024 40 40 of total economy-wide production growth in 2Q24 2 2 30 30 20 2
Slide 28: Strong labor market & supportive liquidity conditions offset inflation-related headwinds
03 Macro Strong labor market & supportive liquidity conditions offset inflation-related headwinds 24 15 Acceleration in employment 8 yoy % 30 Rising employment, €b yoy growth to 1.7% yoy in 9M24 wages, and non–wage from 1.3% in FY23 with labor incomes, support real 10 6 25 22 force participation rat
Slide 29: Solid fiscal performance and ongoing risk re-rating of the economy bolstered by the RRF
03 Macro Solid fiscal performance and ongoing risk re-rating of the economy bolstered by the RRF General Government %GDP 210 Impressive decline in the %GDP 60 pps surplus primary surplus 12 public debt-to-GDP ratio Cumulative decline in estimated at 2.4% in 185 on rapid budget 50 gross public debt i
Slide 30: 04 ESG Update
04 ESG Update 30
Slide 31: Our C&E strategy continues to create value for NBG and our customers
04 ESG Update Our C&E strategy continues to create value for NBG and our customers Lead the market in sustainable energy financing Hydro & Other 15% • Leading franchise in Greece for RES large projects and small-scale solar solutions though our highly expert Project Finance teams Corporate financing
Slide 32: Ambitious emissions targets substantiate our net zero commitment
04 ESG Update Ambitious emissions targets substantiate our net zero commitment NBG is the first Greek systemic bank to join PCAF1 and NZBA2 with declared emissions reduction targets Sector/ Scopes Unit of Reference Scenario / 2022 Baseline 2023 2030 Delta Portfolio Covered Measurement Pathway Value
Slide 33: Broad recognition of our ESG activity and best practices
04 ESG Update Broad recognition of our ESG activity and best practices NBG upgrade ESG ratings and indices 2022 2023 2024 October update Years of coverage MSCI ESG rating BBB A A 11 ISS Corporate rating C- C- C (Prime) 7 ISS ESG score (E | S | G) 1|2|2 1|1|2 1|1|2 Confirmed ‘Discloser’, CDP Carbon d
Slide 34: 05 Transformation Program (TP) Update
05 Transformation Program (TP) Update 34
Slide 35: Our TP is a competitive edge, supporting change and targets delivery
05 Transformation Program Update Our TP is a competitive edge, supporting change and targets delivery BEST BANK FOR OUR CLIENTS BEST BANK FOR OUR CLIENTS ESG (Corporate) (Retail) • Best-practice service model for • Productive service model for individuals • Sector-specific net-zero targets and Corpo
Slide 36: We are widely recognized for the impressive results of our digital transformation
05 Transformation Program Update We are widely recognized for the impressive results of our digital transformation CROSS- ONBOARD ENGAGE SELL Mobile app downloads (m) Digital active users1 (m) Digital cumulative sales2 (m) 4.9 Active 4.3 users 12M 3.0 2.9 3.6 2.7 1.5 2.5 2.9 1.2 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3
Slide 37: 06 Appendix
06 Appendix 37
Slide 38: Balance Sheet & P&L
07 Appendix Balance Sheet & P&L Balance Sheet | Group P&L | Group €m 3Q24 2Q24 1Q24 4Q23 3Q23 €m 3Q24 2Q24 1Q24 4Q23 3Q23 Cash & Reserves 8,397 8,356 8,307 9,015 8,400 NII 589 587 606 623 588 Interbank placements 2,662 2,573 2,527 2,792 2,330 Net fee & commission income 108 106 100 109 95 Securities
Slide 39: Geographical segment P&L: Greece & International
07 Appendix Geographical segment P&L: Greece & International Greece International €m 3Q24 2Q24 1Q24 4Q23 3Q23 €m 3Q24 2Q24 1Q24 4Q23 3Q23 NII 563 561 578 594 563 NII 26 26 28 29 25 Net fee & commission Net fee & commission 104 102 96 106 92 4 4 4 4 4 income income Core Income 667 662 673 700 654 Cor
Slide 40: ESMA Alternative Performance Measures (APMs), financial data and ratios definitions
07 Appendix ESMA Alternative Performance Measures (APMs), financial data and ratios definitions The 3Q24 Financial Results Presentation contains financial information and measures as derived from the Group and the Bank’s financial statements for the nine months period ended 30 September 2024 and for
Slide 41: Definition of financial data, ratios used and alternative performance measures
07 Appendix Definition of financial data, ratios used and alternative performance measures Name Abbreviation Definition Assets held for sale -- Non-current assets held for sale Cash and Reserves -- Cash and balances with central banks Combined Buffer Requirement CBR Total CET1 capital required to me
Slide 42: Definition of financial data, ratios used and alternative performance measures
07 Appendix Definition of financial data, ratios used and alternative performance measures Loan / Lending Yield -- Annualized (or annual) loan interest income over gross performing exposures Loans-to-Deposits Ratio L:D ratio Loans and advances to customers over due to customers at year/period end, e
Slide 43: Important Notice – Disclaimer
07 Appendix Important Notice – Disclaimer The information, statements and opinions set out in the 3Q24 Results Presentation and Performance Measures (“APMs”), definition of financial data and ratios used” and may not accompanying discussion (the “Presentation”) have been provided by National Bank of
Slide 44: Important Notice – Forward Looking Information
07 Appendix Important Notice – Forward Looking Information The Presentation contains forward-looking statements relating to management’s intent, Forward Looking Statements are provided for illustrative purposes only and are not belief or current expectations with respect to, inter alia, the Bank’s b
Slide 45: Contact details
Contact details Christos Christodoulou | Group CFO Greg Papagrigoris | Group Head of IR +30 210 334 3051 +30 210 334 2310 cchristodoulou@nbg.gr papagrigoris.gr@nbg.gr Maria Kanellopoulou | Analysts Panagiotis Alevras | Institutional Investors +30 210 334 1537 +30 210 334 3031 mkanellopoulou@nbg.gr A
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National Bank of Greece — Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation on 6ix