Agl Energy Limited · ASX:AGL
Agl Energy — ESG Presentation (June 2020)
19 slides from Agl Energy's sustainability presentation, Jun 1, 2020
Slide 1: Scenario Analysis & TCFD Reporting, 1 June 2020
1 June 2020 1
Slide 2: Responsibility for clear disclosure, transparency and responsible transition
As Australia’s largest electricity generator and carbon emitter, we have an important responsibility for clear disclosure, transparency and responsible transition We recognise the large part we can play in Australia’s transition to a low carbon economy TCFD reporting deepens our assessment of climat
Slide 3: A core element of the TCFD Framework is the use of scenario analysis
A core element of the TCFD Governance Strategy Framework is the use of scenario AGL’s Board actively considers AGL sees significant transformation climate-related risks and driven by technological changes, and analysis to demonstrate potential opportunities regularly when customer and community dema
Slide 4: TCFD application principles for scenario development
TCFD Application Principles • AGL developed scenarios “top down” Each scenario was developed using a range of credible global and domestic to facilitate comparability with global Plausible sources including the AEMO 2020 Integrated System Plan, and and national scenario modelling and the Intergovern
Slide 5: Scenario descriptions: National Targets to 1.5 Degree Limit
Temperature Global References AEMO ISP Description outcome (°C) RCP SSP Scenarios Current industry commitments and policy settings are maintained over the medium to long-term without Scenario A – material change Not N/A SSP3 Central National Targets assessed Assumes AGL meets its Paris commitments o
Slide 6: NEM emissions pathways show progressive decarbonisation to 2050
NEM Emissions Pathways Modelling results show progressive 100% decarbonisation of the electricity sector to 2050 90% occurs under all scenarios, with the electricity 80% sector achieving net zero emissions by 2050 70% under scenarios Response 2020, Response 2030 and 1.5 Degree Limit 60% 50% The emis
Slide 7: Modelling of Scope 1 emissions projects net zero by 2050 or earlier
Modelling of Scope 1 emissions projects net zero emissions by 2050 or earlier Bayswater AGL emissions from grid-connected generation 100% end of assets in the NEM decline under all technical life 90% 2035 scenarios, achieving net zero by FY50 or earlier 80% Scenarios National Targets, Response 2020
Slide 8: Proportion of Renewable Generation Output in the NEM
Proportion of Renewable Generation Output in the NEM 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% FY20 FY25 FY30 FY35 FY40 FY45 FY50 National Targets Response 2020 Response 2030 1.5 Degree Limit Scenario Analysis & TCFD Reporting | 1 June 2020 8
Slide 9: NEM renewable and storage capacities and customer opportunities
Additional NEM wide customer opportunities NEM Renewable & Storage Capacities between FY20 and FY50 90 National Targets 1.5 Degree Limit 80 Technology - NEM - NEM 70 Behind the 60 Installed Capacity (GW) + 8GW capacity + 16GW capacity meter battery 50 Rooftop solar + 13GW capacity + 31GW capacity 40
Slide 10: Customer and generation roadmap by scenario
National Targets: Customer & generation roadmap 1.5 Degree Limit: Customer & generation roadmap Electricity Electricity Customers Electricity generation Emissions Customers Electricity generation Emissions (millions) (MtCO2e) (millions) (MtCO2e) 6% 6% 2019 2.3 84% 10% 43.2 2019 2.3 84% 10% 43.2 2% 1
Slide 11: AGL's business and strategy is resilient and flexible to all scenarios
AGL’s business and strategy is resilient and flexible to adapt to all scenarios • The full finalised report will be released on 13 August with our Annual Report • The finalised report will include: – Full results, risks and opportunities analysis – Implied closure dates under each scenario – Quantum
Slide 12: Macarthur Wind Farm, Victoria
Macarthur Wind Farm, Victoria Scenario Analysis & TCFD Reporting | 1 June 2020
Slide 13: Global scenarios and Australian scenarios
Global scenarios Australian scenarios Global emissions trajectory Australian carbon budgets Each RCP links atmospheric carbon Australia’s share of the global carbon path can be concentrations with warming outcomes for the calculated using methods of convergence and contraction world. These show the
Slide 14: Market modelling input assumptions
Electricity Input assumptions for each Market modelling sector carbon Electric BTM BTM Underlying Pumped Level of Inter- Asset scenario are sourced from Carbon Aurora and AEMO scenarios input assumptions budget price start data vehicle rooftop small-scale electricity hydro international Commodity co
Slide 15: Globally recognised scenarios used to inform Australian scenarios
In order to define the scenarios, globally recognised scenarios were used to inform the development of Australian scenarios Global context Australian context • The IPCC publishes assessments through comprehensive • AEMO’s Integrated System Plan 2020 (ISP) outlines Assessment Reports which cover mode
Slide 16: Derived NEM carbon budgets and carbon constraints
Scenarios Derived NEM carbon budgets NEM Carbon Constraints Scenario A – National Targets N/A 50 Scenario B – Response 2020 2,208 MtCO2e 45 Scenario C – Response 2030 2,208 MtCO2e 40 Scenario D – 1.5 Degree Limit 1,465 MtCO2e 35 • The modelling assumes a carbon constraint is applied to the NEM acros
Slide 17: Alignment of scenarios to RCPs and modelling assumptions
This work has been undertaken with reference to the IPCC Alignment of Assessment Report 5 (AR5), and uses the RCPs as outlined The electricity sector market modelling assumes that the market NEM market scenarios to RCPs within. We note that the RCPs will differ in AR6 however AR6 structure structure
Slide 18: Important notice and disclaimer
• The material in this presentation is general information about Statutory Profit and Underlying Profit: AGL’s activities as at the date of this presentation. It is • Statutory Profit is prepared in accordance with the provided in summary form and does not purport to be Corporations Act 2001 and Aus
Slide 19: Investor relations contacts
James Hall Chantal Travers General Manager, Corporate Finance Head of Investor Relations Phone: +61 2 9921 2789 Phone: +61 2 9921 2132 Mobile: +61 401 524 645 Mobile: +61 428 822 375 Email: jbhall@agl.com.au Email: ctravers@agl.com.au agl.com.au 131 245 Download agl.com.au/ facebook.com twitter.com/