Duke Energy Corporation (Holding Company) · NYSE:DUK
Duke Energy Corporation (Holding Company) — Corporate Update (November 2017)
27 slides from Duke Energy Corporation (Holding Company)'s corporate update, Nov 9, 2017
Slide 1: 2018 Integrated Resource Plan Stakeholder Workshop #1
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Stakeholder Workshop #1 November 9, 2017 Plainfield, IN
Slide 2: Welcome
Welcome § Safety message § Conference call § Call-in # 866-385-2663; § Participant Code 8863708 § Introductions 2
Slide 3: Why are we here today?
Why are we here today? § Kick off stakeholder process with a review of the 2015 IRP § Gather stakeholder feedback and suggestions § Discuss IRP & Stakeholder process goals and measurement § Provide overview of anticipated meetings and topics § Provide initial thoughts on modeling EE and scenarios in
Slide 4: Agenda
Agenda 8:30 Registration & Continental Breakfast 9:00 Welcome, Introductions, Agenda 9:30 Review of 2015 Stakeholder Process and IRP 10:00 Break 10:15 Stakeholder Feedback on 2015 IRP 10:45 Goals of IRP & Stakeholder Process 11:15 Overview of 2018 Stakeholder Meeting Schedule 11:45 Lunch 12:30 EE Mo
Slide 5: Review of 2015 Process and IRP
Scott Park, Director IRP Analytics - Midwest Review of 2015 Process and IRP 5
Slide 6: Meetings 1 and 2
Meetings 1 and 2 Meeting 1 Meeting 2 § Overview of Duke Energy Indiana § Meeting 1 Comments and Response § Review of 2013 § Scenario Discussion § Stakeholder Process § Resource Discussion § IRP § Portfolio Development Exercise § Lessons Learned § Scenario Discussion 6
Slide 7: Meetings 3 and 4
Meetings 3 and 4 Meeting 3 Meeting 4 § Meeting 2 Comments and Response § Meeting 3 Comments and Response § Scenario Review § Scenario Review § Portfolio Review § Portfolio review § Modeling Results § Modeling & Sensitivity Results § Sensitivity Exercise § Decision Making § Preferred Portfolio § Shor
Slide 8: Meeting 4 – Modeling Results
Meeting 4 – Modeling Results PORTFOLIOS No CO2 Opt CO2 Opt w/ CPP Opt w/ Stakeholder Stakeholder High No CO2 Opt CO2 Opt CPP Opt w/ CC CC CC Dist Gen Green Utility Renewables No CO2 Tax 20,297 20,655 20,891 20,379 20,677 20,931 27,465 22,623 21,219 CO2 Tax 27,549 27,186 27,209 27,617 27,243 27,334 3
Slide 9: Stakeholder Feedback on 2015 IRP & Goals Discussion
Heather Quinley, Director Energy Affairs & Stakeholder Engagement Stakeholder Feedback on 2015 IRP & Goals Discussion 9
Slide 10: Activity
Activity § Purpose: Debrief and Understand Stakeholder Feedback on the 2015 IRP process § Activity: Discuss at your table the following questions (15 minutes) § Why are you here and/or why did you return? § What did you like about the 2015 IRP process? § What do you want to see change/see more of/ne
Slide 11: Goals for the IRP & Stakeholder Process?
Goals for the IRP & Stakeholder Process? EXAMPLE GOAL METRIC Minimize Cost Present Value of Revenue Requirement (PVRR) Minimize Risk Variability of Costs Decrease CO2 emissions Tons of CO2 emitted Increase Generation Diversity Energy Mix Maximize Jobs Net change in jobs created 11
Slide 12: Overview of 2018 Stakeholder Meeting Schedule
Nate Gagnon, Lead Planning Analyst Overview of 2018 Stakeholder Meeting Schedule 12
Slide 13: Six Stakeholder Meetings
Six Stakeholder Meetings Meeting Approximate Date Topic 1 Nov 9, 2017 Stakeholder Feedback & Process Goals; Discussion on modeling EE & Scenario Planning 2 Feb 2018 Resources including discussion on modeling EE; Scenario discussion 3 Apr 2018 Scenarios 4 June 2018 Portfolios 5 Aug 2018 Portfolios &
Slide 14: Lunch
Lunch DUKE “ © ENERGY.
Slide 15: EE Modeling
Tom Wiles, Director EE Analytics EE Modeling 15
Slide 16: Modeling EE for 2018 IRP
Modeling EE for 2018 IRP § Market Potential Study (MPS) performed by Nexant scheduled to be completed early November § What is in the MPS? § Assessment of Technical, Economic and Achievable potential for EE and DR within DEI service territory § Timeline of MPS, IRP and EE filings 2017 2018 2019 MPS
Slide 17: Modeling EE for 2018 IRP
Modeling EE for 2018 IRP § In the 2015 IRP § Based on most recently approved EE filing as starting point with expectation that future years would look like year 5 § Included Incremental bundles that were similar to Base bundles but more expensive § 10 total EE bundles § In the 2018 IRP, we are think
Slide 18: Serving the Load
Serving the Load Load Curve Resource Options Non-Res Day Non-Res Night Res HVAC Res Lighting Output Flat Energy Efficiency Peaking Hydro Output Intermediate Generation Wind Baseload Generation Solar Hour Hour 18
Slide 19: Scenario Development
Scott Park, Director IRP Analytics - Midwest Scenario Development 19
Slide 20: Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning § Focus on key drivers that are difficult to forecast with confidence § Should be plausible, internally consistent and sufficiently different § Address a wide range of possible outcomes § Uncertainty increases over time, scenarios diverge accordingly 20
Slide 21: Identifying Key Uncertainties
Identifying Key Uncertainties § Should significantly affect resource planning § Outcomes should be difficult to predict with a wide range of possibilities § Many factors that affect resource planning are difficult to predict § Factors that are less impactful or less uncertain should be addressed in
Slide 22: Identifying Key Uncertainties
Identifying Key Uncertainties Factor Impact on Resource Plan Variability / Uncertainty Gas Price High High Coal Price Low Low Cost of Wind High High Cost of Solar High High Cost of Energy Storage High High EE Adoption Rates Low High Load Low High Carbon Tax High High Other Regulatory Changes Low Low
Slide 23: Identifying Key Uncertainties
Identifying Key Uncertainties Factor Impact on Resource Plan Variability / Uncertainty Gas Price High High Coal Price Low Low “Renewables” Grouped as Cost of Wind High High Cost of Solar High High Cost of Energy Storage High High EE Adoption Rates Low High Load Low High Carbon Tax High High Other Re
Slide 24: Scenario Evolution
Scenario Evolution Today Mid-Late 2020s High Tax High Tax Carbon Tax Carbon Tax Gas Dramatic Reference Transition Change Case Dramatic Gas Incremental Stable Keep On Change Keep On Incremental Transition Greening Progress Keepin’ On Keepin’ On Greening No Tax No Tax Natural Natural Renewables Renewa
Slide 25: Scenario Evolution (Mid-Late 2030's)
Scenario Evolution (Mid-Late 2030’s) Gas Gas Dramatic High Tax High Tax Transition Transition Change Gas Dramatic Transition Change Carbon Tax Carbon Tax Reference Gas Reference Case Transition Case Keep On Incremental Keep On Incremental Keepin’ On Greening Keepin’ On Greening No Tax No Tax Natural
Slide 26: Closing Comments, Stakeholder Comments
Heather Quinley, Director Energy Affairs & Stakeholder Engagement Closing Comments, Stakeholder Comments 26
Slide 27: Next Steps
Next Steps § Please complete comment cards or send by Nov 16 to Scott at: scott.park@duke-energy.com § Meeting summary and other materials will be posted on website by Nov 17 (http://www.duke-energy.com/indiana/in-irp-2018.asp) § Next workshop tentatively scheduled for February 2018 27