Slide 1: CF Industries at KeyBanc Basic Materials & Packaging Conference
Corporate Development Supply Chain Sales Finance Legal Operations Human Resources Dv Sc Sa Fi Le Op Hr CF Industries NYSE: CF KeyBanc Basic Materials & Packaging Conference September 13, 2011
Slide 2: Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements contained in this communication may constitute "forward-looking statements." All statements in this communication, other than those relating to historical information or current condition, are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of
Slide 3: Tony Will, Vice President, Manufacturing and Distribution
Tony Will Vice President, Manufacturing and Distribution
Slide 4: Manufacturing and Distribution Locations
Manufacturing and Distribution Locations Medicine Hat Courtright Port Neal Woodward Verdigris Yazoo City Donaldsonville Plant City Hardee (Mine) Ritzville Velva Grand Forks Glenwood Pine Bend Blair Garner Aurora Fremont Spencer Tampa Palmyra Mt. Vernon Cowden Terre Haute Frankfort Huntington Kingsto
Slide 5: Nitrogen Leadership
Nitrogen Leadership Sales Volume (000 st) North America’s leading producer of all four primary nitrogen products World’s leading producer of UAN Segment size doubled with acquisition of Terra Industries in April 2010 6.5 million nutrient tons annual nitrogen capacity (converted to 14.0 million produ
Slide 6: Phosphate Operations Advantages
Phosphate Operations Advantages World scale operation 3.5 million tons of phosphate rock annually 1 million tons of P2O5 2 million tons DAP/MAP Well balanced, fully integrated system 12 years fully permitted reserves at current rates; permitting process begun for additional 10 years of reserves Exce
Slide 7: Record Profits and Cash Flow
Record Profits and Cash Flow Any-quarter record Second quarter record 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Earnings per Share Operating Cash Flow (millions) Terra acquisition improved earnings power and cash flow
Slide 8: Capital Deployment
Capital Deployment Quadrupling of regular quarterly dividend to $0.40 Project investments of up to $1.0 to $1.5 billion over the next four years Debottlenecking Increased upgrading of ammonia Expenditure of up to $1.5 billion to repurchase shares through December 31, 2013 Focused on shareholder valu
Slide 9: USDA Corn Supply Revision
USDA Corn Supply Revision WASDE Report Jun. 9, 2011 Jul. 12, 2011 Aug.11, 2011 Sep. 12, 2011 Sep. vs. Aug. Planted Acres (millions) 90.7 92.3 92.3 92.3 - Harvested Acres (millions) 83.2 84.9 84.4 84.4 - Yield (Bu/acre) 158.7 158.7 153.0 148.1 (4.9) Production (million Bu) 13,200 13,470 12,914 12,497
Slide 10: USDA Corn Demand/Stocks Revision
USDA Corn Demand/Stocks Revision Million Bushels except Ratio WASDE Report Jun. 9, 2011 Jul. 12, 2011 Aug. 11, 2011 Sep. 12, 2011 Sep. vs. Aug. Feed Use 5,000 5,050 4,900 4,700 (200) Ethanol 5,050 5,150 5,100 5,000 (100) Food/Seed/Other Ind. 1,405 1,400 1,410 1,410 - Exports 1,800 1,900 1,750 1,650
Slide 11: Ethanol Blender Economics
Ethanol Blender Economics Note: 2.8 bushels/gallon of ethanol; analysis includes no blender subsidy; includes DDGS credit Iowa Cash Corn Price ($/bushel) Oil Price ($/barrel Brent Crude) Weekly Observations (52 Weeks Ending 9/9/11) Source: USDA, EIA, WSJ, CF Industries * Per CF Industries internal a
Slide 12: U.S. Corn Demand and Stocks
U.S. Corn Demand and Stocks (Billion bushels, marketing year basis) Source: USDA, CF
Slide 13: Crop Nutrient Prices
Crop Nutrient Prices Source: Green Markets 2010 2011 Ammonia Urea UAN-32 Mid-Cornbelt Prices Prices have risen gradually but persistently Demand has risen with crop prices and acreage response Supply has been limited by lower urea and DAP exports from China DAP Supply/demand balance continues to be
Slide 14: China Urea Export Tariff
China Urea Export Tariff Year High Season Tariff Low Season Tariff Months in Low Season Est. Exports (MMT) Aug. 31 Producer Inv. (MMT) 2008 135%-185% 10%-35% 4.5 4.4 2009 110% 10% 5.5 3.4 2010 110% 7% 6.0 7.0 1.3 2011 110% 21%-28%* 4.0 3.2* 0.7 Source: China Fertilizer Market Week, other industry so
Slide 15: N.A. Natural Gas Volatility Reduced
N.A. Natural Gas Volatility Reduced Three consecutive extreme weather seasons Summer ’10 was 2nd hottest in last 25 years for continental U.S. Winter ’10-’11 was 4th coldest in 25 years July ‘11 hottest in over 50 years In 2011, Texas and Oklahoma recorded the hottest summers ever by any state Littl
Slide 16: Favorable Outlook for Corn and Natural Gas
Favorable Outlook for Corn and Natural Gas Source: USDA, EIA, Bloomberg, CF Industries *CF Industries projection 2012-2015 U.S. Corn Plantings* Projected U.S. Corn Plantings (million acres) Avg. Natural Gas Cost per MMBtu at Henry Hub Several years of large plantings and favorable gas costs expected
Slide 17: An Execution Story
An Execution Story Operational integration of Terra complete Completed major upgrading project at Woodward in Q1 High plant utilization Leveraged plant/terminal network and all modes of transport to overcome spring logistical challenges Strong profitability and cash flow Favorable industry condition
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