National Bank Of Greece S.a. · ATHEX:ETE
National Bank Of Greece — Q2 2024 Earnings Presentation
53 slides from National Bank Of Greece's earnings presentation, Aug 1, 2024
Slide 1: 2Q24 Financial Results
2Q24 Financial Results 1 August 2024
Slide 2: Table of Contents
Table of Contents 01 Key Financial Highlights 02 Financial Results in Detail 03 Macro 04 ESG Update 05 Transformation Program Update 06 BP 2024-26 and Updated Guidance 07 Appendix 2
Slide 3: Key Financial Highlights
01 Key Financial Highlights 3
Slide 4: Strong performance across all key metrics continues in 1H24
01 Key Financial Highlights Strong performance across all key metrics continues in 1H24 RoTE | % C:CI | % Loan Disbursements², CET1, PAT | € m Core PPI | € b Balances | € b Total Capital | % Attrib. RoTE 18.1% C:CI 30.1% 2Q24 €2.8b CET1 change +100bps Disbursements ytd³ Core RoTE 17.4% 2Q24 €1.2b CE
Slide 5: 1H24 P&L performance leads to improved FY24 profitability guidance
01 Key Financial Highlights 1H24 P&L performance leads to improved FY24 profitability guidance Core PAT | € m FY24 guidance Core RoTE | % FY24 guidance Previous c€1.2b Previous c15% Updated c€1.3b Updated >16% 646 16.2% 17.4% 508 175 5.2% 1H22 1H23 1H24 1H22 1H23 1H24 Cost to Core Income | % FY24 gu
Slide 6: Performance driven revision of our FY24 guidance
01 Key Financial Highlights Performance driven revision of our FY24 guidance Previous Updated Financial performance metrics Actual Guidance Guidance FY24 NII expected to remain at FY23 record P&L KPIs 1H24 FY24E FY24E levels, despite lower base rates, driving Core Income higher YoY Net Interest Marg
Slide 7: Strong deposit flows in 2Q24; depo mix shifts closer to 80% in favor of core deposits
01 Key Financial Highlights Strong deposit flows in 2Q24; depo mix shifts closer to 80% in favor of core deposits NBG Domestic Deposit flows ytd (€ b) NBG Deposit¹ mix (%) 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% -€0.2b 17% 18% 19% 19% 18% 79% c36% in 78% 78% 78% 79% savings -€1.5b +€1.3b 2 1Q24 2Q24 other Time Core 2Q23 3Q2
Slide 8: NBG assigned IG by rating agencies reflecting a robust B/S and sustained profitability
01 Key Financial Highlights NBG assigned IG by 2 rating agencies reflecting a robust B/S and sustained profitability Sovereign rating assigned IG from 4 out of 5 rating agencies Credit ratings | Sovereign and NBG S&P / Fitch/ Moody’s/ Scope Investment Grade threshold DBRS Investment Grade BBB- Baa3/
Slide 9: Financial Results in Detail
02 Financial Results in Detail 9
Slide 10: 1H24 Group core PAT at €646m (+27% yoy) reflects core income strength
02 Financial Results in Detail 1H24 Group core PAT at €646m (+27% yoy) reflects core income strength P&L Highlights P&L | Group (€ m) 1H24 1H23 YoY 2Q24 QoQ 1H24 Group core PAT at €646m, up by +27% yoy, benefits from NII resilience (+13% yoy) despite NII 1,192 1,052 +13% 587 -3% lower Euribor rates
Slide 11: Robust B/S with accelerating dynamics in 2Q24, underpinned by increasing leverage
02 Financial Results in Detail Robust B/S with accelerating dynamics in 2Q24, underpinned by increasing leverage Balance sheet Highlights Key Balance Sheet items & ratios | Group • Loan expansion in 1H24 stood at +€0.9b ytd and +€2.4b yoy (+8% yoy), to €31.4b at Group Key Balance sheet items 6M24 3M
Slide 12: CET1 +100bps ytd, or +c50bps post a dividend accrual for a 40% payout
02 Financial Results in Detail CET1 +100bps ytd¹, or +c50bps post a dividend accrual for a 40% payout from 2024 earnings 1Η24 capital movement² 20.9% CAD 20.2% +c1.8% -c0.6% -c0.3% -c0.5% 1H24 accrual for a 40% payout Organic capital generation of c120bps 18.8% 18.3% CET1 17.8% 3 FY23 1H24 Profitabi
Slide 13: Strong Balance Sheet is a unique comparative advantage
02 Financial Results in Detail Strong Balance Sheet is a unique comparative advantage Group Assets1 (€ b) Group Liabilities1 (€ b) Interbank 1.8 Cash & reserves 8.4 Excess liquidity at €9.1b (post full repayment of TLTRO) Interbank 2.6 Securities portfolio +0.2bqoq Securities² 17.7 HTC €14.1b HTCS €
Slide 14: Group 1H24 core PAT +27% yoy (+2% qoq) at €646m on core income strength
02 Financial Results in Detail Group 1H24 core PAT +27% yoy (+2% qoq) at €646m on core income strength (+14% yoy) Group core PAT (€ m) Group operating profit (€ m) +27% yoy 933 +22% yoy +27 646 766 64 +141 +14 -15 -9 Non core income 56 -2 -22 508 Core PPI 976 +18% yoy Core PPI 830 CoR -109 -93 Other
Slide 15: Resilient NII & NIM on a normalizing path on lower rates
02 Financial Results in Detail Resilient NII & NIM on a normalizing path on lower rates Group NII (€ m), Group NIM (bps) Domestic NII breakdown (€ m) -4bps NIM¹ (Group) 322 337 326 322 qoq 297 -11bps 529 563 594 578 561 3M Euribor (avg) -3% qoq 378 396 392 381 qoq 336 623 606 588 29 587 -3% qoq 554
Slide 16: 2Q24 disbursements reach €2.8b, a multi year high
02 Financial Results in Detail 2Q24 disbursements reach €2.8b, a multi year high, driving PEs +€0.9b ytd and +€2.3b (+9%) yoy Group Performing loan evolution (€ b) Loan disbursements¹ (€ b) +€2.4b Group 29.0 30.5 31.4 +8% yoy 1.6 1.6 1.7 +€0.0b Int’l +2% yoy >2x yoy +€2.3b 2.8 >2.5x qoq 29.7 2.7 28.
Slide 17: Lending spread tightening tapering off
02 Financial Results in Detail Lending spread tightening tapering off Greek PE lending spreads¹ (bps) Loan yield | % Total 3M Euribor Performing 260 234 229 224 221 (avg) 336 378 396 392 381 Consumer² 649 630 Pass through at 624 618 620 c70% in 2Q24 SBLs 484 456 Performing 6.0% 6.2% 6.1% 430 5.7% 6.
Slide 18: Deposits up by a solid +€1.4b yoy while spreads affected mainly by euribor decline
02 Financial Results in Detail Deposits up by a solid +€1.4b yoy while spreads affected mainly by euribor decline Group deposits evolution (€ b) Greek deposit spreads¹ (bps) Group 55.7 56.3 57.1 55.6 57.1 +€1.4b yoy Demand Spread drop solely 373 390 386 375 due to Euribor Int’l 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2 3
Slide 19: Net cash position at €9.1b supports NII and NIM
02 Financial Results in Detail Net cash position at €9.1b supports NII and NIM TLTRO, Cash & reserves, Net Interbank (€ b) Flat qoq NBG Funding Cost (bps) despite large 378 396 392 381 3M Euribor (avg) NBG is a net lender in net loan 6.9 8.0 9.1 expansion 336 the interbank market 264 9.0 8.4 TLTRO 7
Slide 20: Fees continue on an impressive growth path, +15% yoy
02 Financial Results in Detail Fees continue on an impressive growth path, +15% yoy, nearly +10bps/assets yoy Group fees (€ m) Domestic retail fees (€ m) Fees/Assets 47bps 56bps ΥοΥ ΥοΥ 109 +14% 205 +15% 8 95 14 178 17 +11% 8 Deposits 13 9 28 +16% 72 24 International 65 Payments Driven by increased
Slide 21: Recurring expenses contained, up by just +3.6% with C:CI at 30%
02 Financial Results in Detail Recurring expenses contained, up by just +3.6% with C:CI at 30% Group C:CI (%) Group headcount¹ (#k) Optimization supported by digital strategy 19.8 implementation Cost/ core income % 32.5 30.1 -2.3pps yoy 7.8 6.6 at Bank level Personnel cost/ 17.0 10.8 core income % 1
Slide 22: Favorable asset quality trends, leading to successively lower CoR
02 Financial Results in Detail Favorable asset quality trends, leading to successively lower CoR Domestic NPE stock per category | 2Q24 (€ b) NPE balance change (€ b, Bank) o/w: €0.3b or c46% <30dpd o/w: €0.1b or c56% <30dpd 0.2 0.2 0.8 NPE inflows (+) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.5 Curings
Slide 23: NPE ratio at 3.3%, coverage at 86%
02 Financial Results in Detail NPE ratio at 3.3%, coverage at 86% NPE ratios and coverage | 2Q24 Domestic forborne stock (€ b) | 2Q24 Collateral coverage¹ 70% 62% 66% FNPEs <30 dpd 0.5 NPE coverage NPE ratio 4.4% at c86% FPEs 1.0 3.3% 3.3% €1.6b 2.8% FNPEs 31-90dpd 0.0 FNPEs >90dpd 0.0 Stage 3 cover
Slide 24: Sector leading coverage levels across stages
02 Financial Results in Detail Sector leading coverage levels across stages Group gross loan stage evolution (€ b) Group S2 ratio and coverage (%) Group S3 ratio and coverage (%) Δ yoy 1.8 1.3 1.3 Stage 3 1.2 -0.6 12.3% o/w: €1.0b FPEs €1.4b SICR €0.2b +30dpd Stage 2 4.1 9.3% 3.1 3.0 2.6 -1.5 8.9% 7
Slide 25: Macro
NATIONAL BANK @ OF GREECE 03 Macro
Slide 26: The Greek economy on solid footing in 1H24 with resilient demand and strong tourism
03 Macro The Greek economy on solid footing in 1H24 with resilient demand and strong tourism Greece’s GDP growth accelerated to 2.1% yoy in 1Q24 (+0.7% qoq, s.a.) from 1.3% in 170 166.1 Greece’s index, sustained recovery 2017=100 4Q23 (+0.3% qoq s.a.), post a temporary, flood- and investment-led slo
Slide 27: Forward-looking indicators point to further strengthening in business activity & investments
03 Macro Forward-looking indicators point to further strengthening in business activity & investments Forward-looking indicators point to a steady pace of GDP growth in qoq terms for 2Q24, 130 Wildfires and 130 Robust economic index Covid-19 historic flood Production and despite the weak external en
Slide 28: Favorable labor market trends, increasing real estate prices and improving liquidity
03 Macro Favorable labor market trends, increasing real estate prices and improving liquidity 8 yoy % 30 24 €b yoy 15 Acceleration in employment Increasing compensation growth to 1.9% yoy in 5M24 of employees & consumer from 1.3% in FY23 with labor 6 25 loans to support 10 22 force participation rat
Slide 29: Increasing production, high capacity-utilization rates and a pick-up in external demand
03 Macro Increasing production, high capacity-utilization rates and a pick-up in external demand 70 70 Business activity and 60 60 Continuing index yoy, exports on the rise in 2Q24 outperformance of Greek 65 65 50 2m m.a. 50 manufacturing against the 60 60 40 40 euro area peers 55 55 30 30 50 50 Man
Slide 30: Solid fiscal performance and supportive liquidity conditions
03 Macro Solid fiscal performance and supportive liquidity conditions (bank lending, RRF) General Government %GDP %GDP 210 VAT revenue growth 30 yoy 30 primary surplus at 1.9% surplus gained steam pointing to 12 of GDP in FY23 and 185 strengthened final 20 20 1.0%* in 5M24 with demand in 2Q24 8 Gros
Slide 31: ESG Update
04 ESG Update 31
Slide 32: Our C&E strategy continues to create value for NBG and our customers
04 ESG Update Our C&E strategy continues to create value for NBG and our customers C&E strategic themes and recent highlights Lead the market in sustainable energy financing Hydro & Other 15% • Leading franchise in Greece for RES large projects and small-scale solar solutions though our highly exper
Slide 33: Ambitious emissions targets substantiate our net zero commitment
04 ESG Update Ambitious emissions targets substantiate our net zero commitment NBG is the first Greek systemic bank to join PCAF1 and NZBA2 with declared emissions reduction targets Sector/ Scopes Unit of Reference Scenario / 2022 Baseline 2023 2030 Delta Portfolio Covered Measurement Pathway Value
Slide 34: Broad recognition of our ESG activity and best practices
04 ESG Update Broad recognition of our ESG activity and best practices NBG upgrade ESG ratings and indices 2022 2023 2024 June update Years of coverage MSCI ESG rating BBB A A 11 ISS Corporate rating C- C- C (Prime) 1 7 ISS ESG score (E | S | G) 1|2|2 1|1|2 1|1|2 CDP Carbon disclosure score C C2 - 1
Slide 35: Transformation Program (TP) Update
05 Transformation Program (TP) Update 35
Slide 36: Our TP is a competitive edge, supporting change and target achievement
05 Transformation Program Update Our TP is a competitive edge, supporting change and target achievement BEST BANK FOR OUR CLIENTS BEST BANK FOR OUR CLIENTS ESG (Corporate) (Retail) • Migrate all clients to new Corporate Service Model • Roll-out modern operating model for individuals and • Further em
Slide 37: We are widely recognised for impressive results in our digital transformation
05 Transformation Program Update We are widely recognised for impressive results in our digital transformation CROSS- ONBOARD ENGAGE SELL Mobile app downloads (m) Digital active users1 (m) Digital cumulative sales2 (m) 4.7 Active 4.3 users 12M 3.0 2.9 3.6 2.7 1.4 2.5 2.9 1.2 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.0
Slide 38: BP 2024-26 and Updated Guidance
06 BP 2024-26 and Updated Guidance 38
Slide 39: Strong 1H24 performance drives a revision of our guidance
06 BP 2024-26 and Updated Guidance Strong 1H24 performance drives a revision of our guidance Financial performance Previous Updated Medium Actual metrics Guidance Guidance term target FY24 NII expected to remain at FY23 record P&L KPIs 1H24 FY24E FY24E FY26E levels, despite lower base rates, driving
Slide 40: Core PAT over €1.3b in 2026, supported by an extended interest rate normalization horizon
06 BP 2024-26 and Updated Guidance Core PAT over €1.3b in 2026, supported by an extended interest rate normalization horizon Core PAT evolution (€b) Key drivers Net Interest Income nearly (+) high (+) low (-) mid CAGR flat sds sds sds • Healthy credit expansion throughout the period, structural hedg
Slide 41: Loan CAGR of c7% driven by Corporates; Retail to support growth from 2025
06 BP 2024-26 and Updated Guidance Loan CAGR of c7% driven by Corporates; Retail to support growth from 2025 onwards c9% CAGR c2% CAGR Corporate balances Retail balances c5% c8% c4% Large Mortgages Corporates c5% c10% SMEs Consumer loans 0% Shipping SBL FY23 FY26 FY23 FY26 • Maintain leadership in e
Slide 42: Further increase in already strong capital buffers, bodes well for increasing distributions
06 BP 2024-26 and Updated Guidance Further increase in already strong capital buffers, bodes well for increasing distributions Group CET1 ratio evolution (%) Key drivers • Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio: Organic capital generation >500bps Driven by sustainable profitability, comfortably accommoda
Slide 43: Investment in IT infrastructure and technology; CBS replacement completion in 2025
06 BP 2024-26 and Updated Guidance Investment in IT infrastructure and technology; CBS replacement completion in 2025 NBG IT strategy is based on 5 strategic pillars 1 Offer the best digital banking experience to our customers • Provide the best digital experience for our retail customer base as wel
Slide 44: Appendix
07 Appendix 44
Slide 45: Balance Sheet & P&L
07 Appendix Balance Sheet & P&L Balance Sheet | Group P&L | Group €m 2Q24 1Q24 4Q23 3Q23 2Q23 €m 2Q24 1Q24 4Q23 3Q23 2Q23 Cash & Reserves 8,356 8,307 9,015 8,400 7,551 NII 587 606 623 588 554 Interbank placements 2,573 2,527 2,792 2,330 2,735 Net fee & commission income 106 100 109 95 92 Securities
Slide 46: Geographical segment P&L: Greece & International
07 Appendix Geographical segment P&L: Greece & International Greece International €m 2Q24 1Q24 4Q23 3Q23 2Q23 €m 2Q24 1Q24 4Q23 3Q23 2Q23 NII 561 578 594 563 529 NII 26 28 29 25 25 Net fee & commission Net fee & commission 102 96 106 92 87 4 4 4 4 5 income income Core Income 662 673 700 654 616 Core
Slide 47: ESMA Alternative Performance Measures (APMs), financial data and ratios definitions
07 Appendix ESMA Alternative Performance Measures (APMs), financial data and ratios definitions The 2Q24 Financial Results Presentation contains financial information and measures as derived from the Group and the Bank’s financial statements for the six months period ended 30 June 2024 and for the y
Slide 48: Definition of financial data, ratios used and alternative performance measures
07 Appendix Definition of financial data, ratios used and alternative performance measures Name Abbreviation Definition Assets held for sale -- Non-current assets held for sale Cash and Reserves -- Cash and balances with central banks Combined Buffer Requirement CBR Total CET1 capital required to me
Slide 49: Definition of financial data, ratios used and alternative performance measures
07 Appendix Definition of financial data, ratios used and alternative performance measures Loan / Lending Yield -- Annualized (or annual) loan interest income over gross performing exposures Loans-to-Deposits Ratio L:D ratio Loans and advances to customers over due to customers at year/period end, e
Slide 50: Important Notice – Disclaimer
07 Appendix Important Notice – Disclaimer The information, statements and opinions set out in the 2Q24 Results Presentation and Performance Measures (“APMs”), definition of financial data and ratios used” and may not accompanying discussion (the “Presentation”) have been provided by National Bank of
Slide 51: Important Notice – Forward Looking Information
07 Appendix Important Notice – Forward Looking Information The Presentation contains forward-looking statements relating to management’s intent, Forward Looking Statements are provided for illustrative purposes only and are not belief or current expectations with respect to, inter alia, the Bank’s b
Slide 52: Contact details
Contact details Christos Christodoulou | Group CFO Greg Papagrigoris | Group Head of IR +30 210 334 3051 +30 210 334 2310 cchristodoulou@nbg.gr papagrigoris.gr@nbg.gr Maria Kanellopoulou | Analysts Panagiotis Alevras | Institutional Investors +30 210 334 1537 +30 210 334 3031 mkanellopoulou@nbg.gr A
Slide 53: Slide 53
National Bank of Greece — Q2 2024 Earnings Presentation on 6ix