Moody's Corporation · NYSE:MCO
Moody's — Pandemic Economics Webinar (October 2020)
28 slides from Moody's's conference presentation, Oct 28, 2020
Slide 1: Pandemic Economics: How COVID-19 Is Shaping American Household Behavior
Pandemic Economics: How COVID-19 Is Shaping American Household Behavior October 28, 2020
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda 1. Introduction 2. Struggling Through: Household Finances in the Pandemic 3. Economic Challenges for Parents During COVID-19 4. Business Closures and Entrepreneurship in the Time of COVID-19 5. Upcoming Research October 28, 2020 2
Slide 3: Introduction
1 Introduction
Slide 4: Partnership and Survey Methodology
Partnership and Survey Methodology » Morning Consult and Moody’s Analytics collaborated to produce research investigating how the coronavirus pandemic is influencing Americans’ decisions regarding their household finances, parenting, starting a business, employment, and moving. » The survey intervie
Slide 5: Employment Composition of Respondents
Employment Composition of Respondents Survey respondents’ employment outcomes and industry composition closely align with government data Distribution of Economic Impact # of adults Event Share of U.S. adults (using 255 mil as base) Laid off or lost a job 13.49% 34 mil Loss of pay or income 27.7% 70
Slide 6: Employment Composition of Respondents
Employment Composition of Respondents Survey respondents’ employment outcomes and industry composition closely align with government data Employment by industry, % of total Construction Manufacturing Wholesale and retail trade Transportation/warehousing Financial activities Prof./business services E
Slide 7: Household Finances
2 Household Finances
Slide 8: Struggling Through: Household Finances in the Pandemic
Struggling Through: Household Finances in the Pandemic Key Insights More than six months into the There are significant differences across pandemic, households remain highly income groups, highlighting the diversity dependent on stimulus payments and of economic experiences during the unemployment i
Slide 9: Household Finances Strained
Household Finances Strained % of respondents paying for everyday expenses using… Stimulus check Money earned from working Savings Social Security payments Money from partner working Credit card debt Help from family/friends SNAP benefits/food stamps Overall Help from food bank or… Disability or SSDI
Slide 10: Low-Income Workers Need More Help
Low-Income Workers Need More Help % of respondents paying for everyday expenses using… Money earned from working Money from partner working Savings Stimulus check Credit card debt Help from family/friends Income: $100K+ UI benefits Income: <$50K SNAP benefits/food stamps 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Sources:
Slide 11: Debt Problems Mount
Debt Problems Mount Confidence level to make minimum payment on debt*, % Rent/mortgage Auto debt Student loan debt Credit card debt Medical debt Very confident Somewhat confident Not that confident Not confident at all 0 20 40 60 80 100 *Among those who have each type of debt Sources: Morning Consul
Slide 12: Apprehension About the Future
Apprehension About the Future Concern about a loss of employment income in the next month, % Overall Employed-private Employed-gov't Self-employed Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not that concerned Not concerned at all Don't know/no opinion 0 20 40 60 80 100 Sources: Morning Consult, Moody’s Analy
Slide 13: Going Off the Fiscal Cliff
Going Off the Fiscal Cliff Monthly change in federal debt held by public, $ bil, 2020 1,800 Stimulus 1,500 checks peak Tax filing deadline 1,200 delayed 900 Extra UI expires 600 CARES Act 300 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Sources: U.S. Treasury, Moody’s Analytics October 28, 2020 13
Slide 14: CARES Act Supports Income Through Q3
CARES Act Supports Income Through Q3 Disposable personal income, $ tril, SAAR, change from 2019Q4 6 Rental and interest income Dividend Income Proprietors' income Labor income Eased pass-through limits Expanded UI benefits 4 Recovery rebates Automatic stabilizers Disposable personal Income 2 0 -2 20
Slide 15: Parenting
3 Parenting
Slide 16: Economic Challenges of Parenting During COVID-19
Economic Challenges of Parenting During COVID-19 Key Insights » Households with children experienced sharper job and income losses than those without children that are living at home. The survey highlights the disproportionate effect of the pandemic on households with children and underscores the ne
Slide 17: Kids Weigh on Decision Making
Kids Weigh on Decision Making Share of respondents whose children influenced decision to… Quit job Among couples Partner quitting job living together Reduce hours Turn down job opportunity Single income, two parent HH Relocating for family Partner reducing Dual income, two parent HH help with childc
Slide 18: Households Need More Help
Households Need More Help Share of respondents paying for expenses using… Stimulus check Money earned from working Money from spouse working Savings Credit card debt Children SNAP benefits/food stamps No children Help from family/friends UI benefits 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Sources: Morning Consult, Mood
Slide 19: Business Closures and Entrepreneurship
4 Business Closures and Entrepreneurship
Slide 20: Business Closures and Entrepreneurship
Business Closures and Entrepreneurship Key Insights » COVID-19 was a major or minor factor in 1/3 of recent business closures – Entrepreneurs under the age of 45 have been more likely to go out of business due to the pandemic. Men cited COVID as a factor in closing more often than women. – Black and
Slide 21: COVID Drove 1/3 of Business Closures
COVID Drove 1/3 of Business Closures The coronavirus pandemic was a… Major factor in business closure Minor factor in business closure Not a factor in business closure Don't Know / No Opinion All adults Age: 18-34 Age: 35-44 Age: 45-64 Age: 65+ Gender: Male Gender: Female Educ: < College Educ: Colle
Slide 22: Dreams Delayed Post COVID
Dreams Delayed Post COVID Share who now want to start a business… All adults Age: 18-34 Age: 35-44 Age: 45-64 Age: 65+ Immediately Gender: Male In the next year Gender: Female Sometime in the future Educ: < College Educ: College + No longer Ethnicity: White Ethnicity: Black Ethnicity: Hispanic Incom
Slide 23: Preferences and Household Composition
Preferences and Household Composition Respondents’ willingness to take risks and their financial commitments within their households influence their experiences during the pandemic. Risk Tolerance by Annual Income Share of Respondents Living with the Less than $50K $50K-$100K Greater than $100K Foll
Slide 24: Upcoming Research
5 Upcoming Research
Slide 25: Upcoming Research
Upcoming Research The full research series is available at: https://www.moodysanalytics.com/pandemic-economics 1. Struggling Through: Household Finances in the Pandemic (released 10/15/20) 2. Economic Challenges of Parenting During COVID-19 (released 10/28/20) 3. Business Closures and Entrepreneursh
Slide 26: Q&A
Q&A Email us at help@economy.com
Slide 27: Contact Us: Economics & Business Analytics Offices
Contact Us: Economics & Business Analytics Offices West Chester, EBA-HQ London Prague Singapore +1.610.235.5299 +44.20.7772.5454 +420.22.422.2929 +65.6511.4400 121 North Walnut Street, Suite 500 One Canada Square AFI Butterfly 6 Shenton Way West Chester PA 19380 Canary Wharf B1 3rd Floor, Pernerova
Slide 28: October 28, 2020
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