Global Menkul Degerler A.S. · BIST:GLBMD

Global Menkul Degerler A.S — Investor Presentation (January 2018)

79 slides from Global Menkul Degerler A.S's investor presentation, Jan 8, 2018

  1. Slide 1: 2018 Turkey Strategy Report

    2018 Turkey Strategy Report January 8, 2018 Strategies to beat the market Note that all data are per January 3, 2018 closing Research Director Analysts Sertan Kargin Kerem Mimaroglu Utku Uygur, Ph. D. Evren Gezer Cem Unal Research Director Banks Non-Financials Non-Financials Non-Financials +90 850 2

  2. Slide 2: Impressive rally in 2017 despite so many uncertainties

    Impressive rally in 2017 despite so many uncertainties Turkish equities: A strongly performing asset class in 2017 MSCI TR Index vs MSCI EM Index As may be remembered, we published our 2017 Strategy Report titled ‘A year of 1,250 650 x1000 two-halves’ which assumed a relatively cautious positioning

  3. Slide 3: Goldilocks picture so far

    Goldilocks picture so far Risk-on sentiment to remain a core play with some caution MOVE Index vs MSCI EM Index The increased tension with the U.S. has blurred the line between politics and 150 economics. This has been followed by some type of setbacks on foreign policy and financial relations such

  4. Slide 4: Some headwinds fade as others re-emerge, but…

    Some headwinds fade as others re-emerge, but… …there are many tailwinds too… MSCI EM Banks vs. XBANK in USD terms Despite so many crosswinds on (geo)politics blowing currently, domestic macro 400 90 x1000 conditions provide valuable catalyst for those who have bullish exposures in Turkish stocks. Fi

  5. Slide 5: Keep your powder dry in case of catching up with EM peers

    Keep your powder dry in case of catching up with EM peers Directional risk-on positioning remains core play…. Investment Ideas We do share some investors’ scepticism to enter a ‘naked directional trade’ on TOP PICKS TRY assets due to the lack of clarity on foreign politics and international relation

  6. Slide 6: Top Pick Stocks

    CUT OF DATE FOR 2H17 TOP PICK PORTFOLIO 29.12.2017 The equally weighted 2H17 top picks portfolio has outperformed the XU100 index by 9.0% (Absolute performance: +24.7%) since the inception date of June 14th, 2017. The FY17 top pick portfolio has outperformed the XU100 index by c.19.0% Top Pick Stock

  7. Slide 7: FV & Rating changes

    FV & Rating changes We revised our fair value and recommendations for the following companies in our coverage universe: FV % upside P/E EV/EBITDA 2018E Stock Investment themes (TRY) potential 2018E (P/BV for financials) • Sector leading asset quality and NPL coverage AKBNK 10.90 10% 5.9x 0.88x • Sec

  8. Slide 8: Sensitivity Analysis

    Sensitivity Analysis Our base-case scenario for Turkish equities assumes a 11.0% risk free rate and 5.5% equity risk premium considering geopolitical uncertainties. Hence, our 12M bottom-up index target of c.126,000 suggests c.9% upside potential from the January 3, 2018 closing. All else being equa

  9. Slide 9: Stock sensitivity to risk metrics

    Stock sensitivity to risk metrics MOST SENSITIVE STOCKS TO Strong € Strong US$ Low oil price Low natural gas price Exports Prospective M&A Domestic consumption POSITIVE IMPACT ON CLEBI AKSEN AKSA AKENR ARCLK AKSEN AKSEN MGROS ARCLK ASELS PETKM AKSEN ANACM ARCLK ANACM SISE DOCO ENKAI PGSUS ANACM FROT

  10. Slide 10: Technical view for XU100 and MSCI EM index in USD terms

    Technical view for XU100 and MSCI EM index in USD terms The 3.200 level is a critical resistance for the XU100$ for the medium XU100 index (USD) technical analysis chart term, because this level represent both the highest level of the downward trend (red line) and the 38.2% Fibonacci level (pink lin

  11. Slide 11: Domestic Politics : A heavier agenda

    Domestic Politics : A heavier agenda Key questions on domestic politics Political composition in the Apr 2017 referendum  Political agenda is currently dominated by the following uncertainties:  Electoral support for the ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party  Likelihood of early elections  T

  12. Slide 12: Election threshold and pre-election alliances

    Election threshold and pre-election alliances What is the game plan? Political standing in Turkey  Both the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and Good (İYİ) Party’s (new party on nationalist centre) are expected to hold their general conventions in 1Q2018 to be ready for snap/early el

  13. Slide 13: Electoral support for the ruling AK Party

    Electoral support for the ruling AK Party An AKP-MHP cooperation : A holly alliance? Political standing in Turkey  After having conducted a closed door meeting with the AK Party deputies on Nov 30, President Erdogan met PM Yildirim on Dec 1, allegedly to develop a road map for drafting adjustment l

  14. Slide 14: Election system: A key area in focus

    Election system: A key area in focus Election system: Will it be changed? The April 2017 referendum voting by region  Since the constitutional amendment included a provision obligating the parliament to complete legislative harmonization within six months, the government is expected to issue an emp

  15. Slide 15: A new party in Turkish political spectrum

    A new party in Turkish political spectrum The Good Party… Seats per party  While the reduced constituency model may be considered as a pre- emptive move to deter pro-Kurdish HDP’s attempt to by-pass the election threshold, the newcomer ‘İyi Parti’ (Good Party) seems to be a new challenge for the ru

  16. Slide 16: Relations between Turkey and US

    Relations between Turkey and US The Atilla court case An ultimate compromise seems most likley outcome…  The New York Federal Court jury has convicted Hakan Atilla, a former  Mutual start of proceeding visa applications is indeed good step in a way deputy CEO of state-run Halkbank, charged of part

  17. Slide 17: Potential openings in foreign policy

    Potential openings in foreign policy Seeking for an alliance in Europe… Signs of recovery in relations with EU…  If Ankara were to fail to come up with a coherent plan to deal with the  Recall, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) guilty verdict for Hakan Atilla, we could pro

  18. Slide 18: Turkey - Russia relations : In a new era….

    Turkey - Russia relations : In a new era…. Now ‘beyond normalization’ and entering ‘a new phase’… Turkey – Russia cooperation  Turkey and Russia relations are now completely restored after the downing of a Russian jet in Nov. 2015. The two countries put emphasize on further cooperation on defense,

  19. Slide 19: Turkey – Peer Comparison…

    Turkey – Peer Comparison… Budget & Public Debt Growth & CA Balance -1.0% 10% Russia Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.5% 8% Thailand Budget Balance (% of GDP) -2.0% Turkey 6% Indonesia Mexico Slovenia -2.5% 4% Philippines Italy Bulgaria Russia Iceland -3.0% Thailand 2% Spain Philippines Colombia

  20. Slide 20: Investment Ratings…

    Ratings… Rating agencies have sceptical view on Turkey … Turkey Sovereign Ratings  Moody’s sees the 2018 outlook for Turkish companies as negative due to limited clarity on policy direction, reform fatigue, and high volatility. Fitch Moody’s S&P Rating Status  Fitch Ratings highlighted that the in

  21. Slide 21: GDP Growth : A stellar performance in Q3

    GDP Growth : A stellar performance in Q3 Growing faster than China and India… GDP Growth vs loans GDP Growth (y/y; %) Change in Loans/GDP (%; RHS)  GDP growth surprised on the upside in Q3, coming in at a whopping 11.1% 15 16 YoY and 7.4% YtD. This impressive result has made the country's growth th

  22. Slide 22: GDP : Higher in new methodology

    GDP : Higher in new methodology Will it last for longer? GDP Revision GDP (USD mn; 1998=100) GDP (USD mn; 2009=100)  The key question now is whether or not above-trend growth momentum will 1,000,000 last in the medium term. The answer still remains unknown as the Turkish 900,000 economy has followe

  23. Slide 23: Inflation genie out of the bottle ?

    Inflation genie out of the bottle ? Inflation risks continue to flash on investors’ radar Core Inflation vs. Expectations Core CPI (y/y) 12M Ahead CPI Expectations (y/y) 24M Ahead CPI Expectations (y/y)  CPI ended 2017 at 11.92% YoY after having climbed to all-time high of 13% 12.98% YoY in Novembe

  24. Slide 24: The CBRT delivered 444bps unorthodox rate hike in 2017

    The CBRT delivered 444bps unorthodox rate hike in 2017 Liquidity tightening: A panacea for inflation problem ? Interest rate vs. exchange rate ON / Bid Rate (%) Exchange Rate Basket (RHS)  The CBRT delivered a total of 444bps hike in the effective funding rate in 16 4.5 2017 particularly through La

  25. Slide 25: … coast is not yet clear…

    … coast is not yet clear… Yet, the bar has been set high for firing heavy bullets… TRY Expected Depreciation Path (bps) Effective Funding Rate TRY Forward Implied Yield 3Month  The CBRT’s decision to deliver additional monetary tightening was a Taylor Rule Estimate for Turkey (RHS) welcome move for

  26. Slide 26: Fiscal Policy : No longer a strong anchor

    Fiscal Policy : No longer a strong anchor Budget remains under spending pressure despite one-off measures Fiscal loosening Taxes - Primary Expenditures (12-mont trailing; mn TRY)  We expect budget deficits to reach 2.3% of GDP in 2017 from 1.1% of GDP Taxes (%, y/y; 3MA; RHS) 20,000 35.0 in 2016 al

  27. Slide 27: Sovereign wealth fund : A saviour or wrong prophet ?

    Sovereign wealth fund : A saviour or wrong prophet ? Turkey has transferred stakes worth billions of dollars in major Company name State % state-owned companies to wealth fund Ziraat Bank 100.0%  The estimated value of the transferred assets to be as much as TRY50bn at Halkbank 51.1% market value,

  28. Slide 28: Currency Outlook: Struggling with a big currency mismatch yet

    Currency Outlook: Struggling with a big currency mismatch yet External financing: A sword of Damocles Turkey’s Net FX Balance posts USD70bn deficit  The strained relations with the U.S. and EU-block may be slowly boiling over Turkey's Net FX Assets Resident Real Persons Net FX Assets to the Turkish

  29. Slide 29: Turkey’s external financing burden falling due over the next 12-month

    Turkey’s external financing burden falling due over the next 12-month (USD mn) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 10M17 External Financing Needs (Next 12M) 192,153 231,315 210,398 191,954 192,855 215,347 Current Account Deficit (12M trailing) 47,961 63,621 43,597 32,118 33,010 41,904 Outstanding External Debt

  30. Slide 30: FX Balance : Improved but struggling with a big currency mismatch

    FX Balance : Improved but struggling with a big currency mismatch  The USD200bn plus external financing requirement has been the ‘weak link’ with the overall currency mismatch, though it eased to USD70bn in 3Q 2017 from USD80bn at the end of 2016, according to our estimates (excluding medium-long t

  31. Slide 31: Current account deficit widens in accordance with growth…

    Current account deficit widens in accordance with growth… Loan growth drives economic activity …and current account deficit GDP Growth (y/y; %) Change in Loans/GDP (%; RHS) 16 Change in Loans/GDP (%; RHS) CAD/GDP (4 Q Trailing; %) -12 15 16 14 10 14 -10 12 12 -8 5 10 10 0 8 -6 8 -5 6 6 -4 -10 4 4 -2

  32. Slide 32: External financing : Imbalances become visible

    External financing : Imbalances become visible Private sector debt accumulates External financing needs reach USD215bn Private Sector Outstanding Debt / GDP (%) External Financing Needs (Next 12M; mn USD; LHS) CAD/GDP (%, RHS) Outstanding External Debt Falling Due Over Next 12M (mn USD) 45.0 -12.0 2

  33. Slide 33: External debt accumulates continuously…

    External debt accumulates continuously… External debt vs. CB net foreign assets Banks’ outstanding external debt Outstanding External Debt Falling Due Over Next 12M / CB Net Foreign Assets Private Sector Outstanding Debt / GDP (%) Outstanding External Debt Falling Due Over Next 12M / CBRT Reserves (

  34. Slide 34: Turkey’s outstanding debt : Accumulating

    Turkey’s outstanding debt : Accumulating Central Government Outstanding Debt/GDP (%) Private Sectort External Debt/GDP (%) 45 80 40 70 35 60 30 50 25 40 20 30 15 20 10 10 5 0 0 Source : CBRT, TurkStat, Turkish Treasury Source : CBRT, TurkStat, Turkish Treasury External Debt / GDP Turkey’s Outstandin

  35. Slide 35: Tourism : A saviour?

    Tourism : A saviour? Growing demand signals bright tourism season in 2018… Tourism revenues 30,000  Recall, the number of foreign tourists visiting Turkey plummeted to 25.3 28,000 Net Tourism Revenues (million USD) million in 2016, down from 36.2 million in 2015 amid a series of terror 26,000 24,00

  36. Slide 36: Oil prices : Not a significant risk factor for Turkey…

    Oil prices : Not a significant risk factor for Turkey… Global inventory build up likely to help starting from mid 2018… Oil prices vs. Current Account CA Balance (12M trailing; USDmn; LHS) 10,000 Brent Oil (Reverse Order; USD/bbl; Av.) 0  Commodity prices have been generally firming, with Brent oil

  37. Slide 37: Credit market : All guns fired

    Credit market : All guns fired Turkish banks have maintained a steady foot on the gas pedal and Banking sector loans segment distribution pressed on with the process of expanding core business… 1,899 1,972 1,811 TRYbn TRYbn 1,714  In total lending, banks put more emphasis on corporate (+4.2% QoQ) a

  38. Slide 38: Credit guarantee fund has changed the game

    Credit guarantee fund has changed the game Enthusiasm for credit guarantee fund (CGF)… Banking sector SME NPLs 50.0 5.50% SME NPLs  Some 347K clients have utilized TRY196bn of the overall CGF limit of 45.0 SME NPL ratio TRY250bn and obtained TRY219bn cash loans as of mid-Oct 2017. The 4.87% 4.88% 4

  39. Slide 39: Credit guarantee fund puts weigh on financing side, though…

    Credit guarantee fund puts weigh on financing side, though… The flip side of CGF lending is the cold-reality of financing costs… Banking sector TL and FX loan to deposit TL loan to deposits  Treasury-backed credit guarantee scheme has provided great potential to FX loan to deposits boost the loan b

  40. Slide 40: CGF lending continues, bad debt formation moderates…

    CGF lending continues, bad debt formation moderates… Banking sector troubled loans An additional TRY100bn CGF loans likely to be provided in 1Q18 80.0 TRYbn Non-performing loans  While TRY liquidity squeeze and elevated LDR should at some point damage 70.0 the credit growth in the near future, the

  41. Slide 41: Core spreads under pressure

    Core spreads under pressure Banks provide constructive guidance; but… TRY volume and TRY Loan to Deposit Ratio 1,600.0 160% 148% 148% TRY loans volume (TRYbn) 142% 144%  The CGF driven acceleration in TRY loan growth and TRY funding squeeze 1,400.0 TRY deposit volume (TRYbn) 133% 134% 140% 127% off

  42. Slide 42: Asset quality : Not a major concern until end of 2018

    Asset quality : Not a major concern until end of 2018 Asset quality worries deferred to late 2018 and beyond Bank Loans vs Consumer Confidence Total Credits (13-week average, annualized; %, FX adjusted)  Faster economic activity, strong loan growth and heavy restructurings have Consumer Confidence

  43. Slide 43: NIM performance for Tier1 class

    NIM performance for Tier1 class NIM evolution well defended owing to decent CPI linker income Banking sector securities income & NIM Available for sale income The first quarter’s loan yield compression, which was perfectly counter- 17.0  Held to maturity income 4.70% balanced by the deposit cost co

  44. Slide 44: NIM evolution : What to expect?

    NIM evolution : What to expect? CPI linkers appear to be relatively less supportive in 2018 Tier 1 banks quarterly NIM average evolution 5.0%  We expect October 2017 - October 2018 CPI print, which is the most widely NIM used benchmark by banks for calculating CPI linker yields, to be at 11.9% Trad

  45. Slide 45: Solvency metrics improved significantly

    Solvency metrics improved significantly Capital ratios saw a technical boost Banking sector capital & capital solvency SHE CAR CET1  Tier1 banks have recorded a 148bps increase in their average CET1 ratio and 500.0 17.20% 18.00% 16.87% 224bps increase in their average total CAR during the first nin

  46. Slide 46: ROAE performance

    ROAE performance Banking sector 11M17 income statement Mid-to-high teens in ROAE looks sustainable  Despite the increased pressures on NIM, strong lending activity and bulky +40.1 Income accounts CPI linker portfolio were the positives of the last year, all helped by on- Expense accounts going oper

  47. Slide 47: Banking Sector : Attractive valuations are not the only catalyst

    Banking Sector : Attractive valuations are not the only catalyst Attractive valuations are not the only catalyst, but re-rating of 2018 macro backdrop TRYmn 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E in context of moderate growth, relatively tamed inflation and eased regulations looks promising for core banking revenu

  48. Slide 48: Turkish Banks vs. Members of peer group

    Turkish Banks vs. Members of peer group 2.00 2018E P/BV 1.80 BZW KOMB OTP 1.60 BHW PEO MIL 1.40 ALR MBK TLV PKO BRD 1.20 EBS 1.00 GARAN TSKB AKBNK 0.80 ISCTR VAKBN 0.60 YKBNK ALBRK HALKB 0.40 0.20 0.00 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 2018E ROE 47

  49. Slide 49: Macro Forecasts

    Macro Forecasts ESTIMATE INDICATIVE PROJECTION Growth 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018I 2019P GDP (TRY mn)-nominal prices 880,461 994,783 999,192 1,160,014 1,394,477 1,569,672 1,809,713 2,044,466 2,338,647 2,608,526 3,100,937 3,564,174 4,032,934 GDP (USD mn) 677,439 776,6

  50. Slide 50: Defense Industry

    Defense Industry How promising is Turkish Defense Industry? Main Battle Tank - Altay  Rising global and regional tensions have led to increasing demand for defense and military products in the Middle East, Central Asia, Far East, and Eastern Europe. These regions are the most attractive markets. 

  51. Slide 51: Defense Industry

    Defense Industry How promising is Turkish Defense Industry? National Combat Aircraft : TF-X  Within the context of these agreements, defense companies displayed ATAK helicopter, Altay tank, Hurkus and Anka drones, reconnaissance and attacking drones, missiles (i.e. Kaan, TRG-122, TRG 300 Kaplan, Go

  52. Slide 52: Retail: Another year of inflation

    Retail: Another year of inflation Growth fuelled by inflation Process food inflation push prices higher  Retailers enjoyed robust revenue growth and margin expansion during 2017, on the back of elevated inflation levels, which reached the highest level since late 2003. Major retailers BIMAS and MGR

  53. Slide 53: Food and beverages: Better domestic environment and a World Cup

    Food and beverages: Better domestic environment and a World Cup Growth at home, growth in the international markets  Like other consumer plays, food & beverages sector had a better year  For ULKER, we may continue to witness the increasing margins especially in 3Q17, in the domestic market. All se

  54. Slide 54: Consumer durables/Furniture: Cycling a year of incentives

    Consumer durables/Furniture: Cycling a year of incentives Will the base effect rule? SCT cut supported the sector for 2017  To stimulate domestic demand, the Government reduced the special consumption tax (SCT) on small and major home appliances to 0% from 6.7% and the VAT for furniture to 8% from

  55. Slide 55: Aviation: Final approach for the new airport / Auto: Exporters over distributors

    Aviation: Final approach for the new airport / Auto: Exporters over distributors Waiting for the first landing Airports in Istanbul  2017 was a year of two stories for Turkish aviation. In 1Q17, the sluggish performance in passenger numbers prevailed, following the dire events in 2016. Whereas, sta

  56. Slide 56: Telecoms: Digitalization continues

    Telecoms: Digitalization continues In the middle of the transformation cycle Data consumption soared in the last couple of years  Telecom market has been passing through a major transformation for the last couple of years, with declining voice and higher demand for data and digital services. Both T

  57. Slide 57: Real Estate: Not promising in the current circumstances

    Real Estate: Not promising in the current circumstances  Turkey total home sales in general fell 7% YoY in Nov’17 with mortgage- TURKSTAT House sales data backed sales (31% of total sales) dropping 24% YoY where the declining trend continued with acceleration. Other housing sales showed a limited i

  58. Slide 58: Iron & Steel: China effect

    Iron & Steel: China effect  In November, China decided to decrease steel production in order to fight the Product price/Feedstock spreads exacerbating air pollution problem. It has been estimated that the supply cut would continue during Nov’17-Mar’18 which could put downward pressure on iron ore p

  59. Slide 59: Glass

    Glass A safe bet TURKSTAT Glass production  Average global glass production capacity is estimated to be 180mn tons with $130-140bn value. Total glass market grows at an annual rate of 2-4% where 53% is glass packaging, 29% float glass, 5% glassware, and 13% other glass products. Float glass is the

  60. Slide 60: Top Picks

    TOP PICKS GLOBAL SECURITIES

  61. Slide 61: Anadolu Efes (AEFES)

    Anadolu Efes (AEFES, Buy, FV TL29.10, upside 17%) Analyst(s): Evren Gezer Market data TL Free float 32% Stock Performance 1M 3M 6M 12M MCap (mn) 14,779 Foreign stake in free float 80% Absolute (%) 7% 19% 14% 35% T/over (3m avg, mn) 7.0 Weight in BIST-100 1.88% Rel. to BIST-100 (%) -5% 7% -2% -11% 12

  62. Slide 62: Eregli (EREGL)

    Eregli (EREGL, Buy, FV TL11.91, upside 17%) Analyst(s): Utku Uygur Market data TL Free float 48% Stock Performance 1M 3M 6M 12M MCap (mn) 35,630 Foreign stake in free float 75% Absolute (%) 21% 24% 44% 119% T/over (3m avg, mn) 115.5 Weight in BIST-100 6.81% Rel. to BIST-100 (%) 8% 11% 25% 45% 12-m r

  63. Slide 63: Garanti Bank (GARAN)

    Garanti Bank (GARAN, Buy, FV TL12.20, upside 14%) Analyst(s): Sertan Kargin & Kerem Mimaroglu Market data TL Free float 48% Stock Performance 1M 3M 6M 12M MCap (mn) 45,024 Foreign stake in free float 73% Absolute (%) 13% 10% 9% 47% T/over (3m avg, mn) 406.7 Weight in BIST-100 8.60% Rel. to BIST-100

  64. Slide 64: Migros Ticaret (MGROS)

    Migros Ticaret (MGROS, Buy, FV TL35.20, upside 29%) Analyst(s): Evren Gezer Market data TL Free float 35% Stock Performance 1M 3M 6M 12M MCap (mn) 4,850 Foreign stake in free float 43% Absolute (%) 15% 4% -1% 55% T/over (3m avg, mn) 19.8 Weight in BIST-100 0.68% Rel. to BIST-100 (%) 3% -7% -14% 2% 1

  65. Slide 65: Petkim (PETKM)

    Petkim (PETKM, Buy, FV TL9.10, upside 14%) Analyst(s): Utku Uygur Market data TL Free float 44% Stock Performance 1M 3M 6M 12M MCap (mn) 11,940 Foreign stake in free float 54% Absolute (%) 22% 29% 33% 138% T/over (3m avg, mn) 140.7 Weight in BIST-100 2.09% Rel. to BIST-100 (%) 8% 16% 15% 57% 12-m ra

  66. Slide 66: Trakya Cam (TRKCM)

    Trakya Cam (TRKCM, Buy, FV TL5.50, upside 24%) Analyst(s): Utku Uygur Market data TL Free float 28% Stock Performance 1M 3M 6M 12M MCap (mn) 5,029 Foreign stake in free float 55% Absolute (%) 9% 15% 36% 97% T/over (3m avg, mn) 9.1 Weight in BIST-100 0.56% Rel. to BIST-100 (%) -3% 3% 17% 30% 12-m ran

  67. Slide 67: Tupras (TUPRS)

    Tupras (TUPRS, Buy, FV TL150.20, upside 23%) Analyst(s): Utku Uygur Market data TL Free float 49% Stock Performance 1M 3M 6M 12M MCap (mn) 30,626 Foreign stake in free float 79% Absolute (%) 4% -1% 23% 91% T/over (3m avg, mn) 166.5 Weight in BIST-100 5.97% Rel. to BIST-100 (%) -8% -11% 6% 26% 12-m r

  68. Slide 68: Vakıf Bank (VAKBN)

    Vakıf Bank (VAKBN, Buy, FV TL8.00, upside 18%) Analyst(s): Sertan Kargin & Kerem Mimaroglu Market data TL Free float 25% Stock Performance 1M 3M 6M 12M MCap (mn) 16,975 Foreign stake in free float 88% Absolute (%) 22% 9% 4% 61% T/over (3m avg, mn) 81.8 Weight in BIST-100 1.69% Rel. to BIST-100 (%) 9

  69. Slide 69: Yatas (YATAS)

    Yatas (YATAS, Buy, FV TL35.53, upside 27%) Analyst(s): Cem Unal Market data TL Free float 54% Stock Performance 1M 3M 6M 12M MCap (mn) 1,193 Foreign stake in free float 47% Absolute (%) 12% 38% 128% 458% T/over (3m avg, mn) 7.5 Weight in BIST-100 0.26% Rel. to BIST-100 (%) 0% 24% 97% 268% 12-m range

  70. Slide 70: Zorlu Enerji (ZOREN)

    Zorlu Enerji (ZOREN, Buy, FV TL2.00, upside 27%) Analyst(s): Cem Unal Market data TL Free float 15% Stock Performance 1M 3M 6M 12M MCap (mn) 3,160 Foreign stake in free float 7% Absolute (%) 16% 1% 16% 37% T/over (3m avg, mn) 52.5 Weight in BIST-100 0.19% Rel. to BIST-100 (%) 4% -9% 1% -10% 12-m ran

  71. Slide 71: FV & Rating Changes

    FV & RATING CHANGES GLOBAL SECURITIES

  72. Slide 72: Akbank (AKBNK)

    Akbank (AKBNK, Buy, FV TL10.90, upside 10%) Analyst(s): Sertan Kargin & Kerem Mimaroglu Market data TL Free float 52% Stock Performance 1M 3M 6M 12M MCap (mn) 39,760 Foreign stake in free float 65% Absolute (%) 13% 5% 1% 34% T/over (3m avg, mn) 183.4 Weight in BIST-100 8.23% Rel. to BIST-100 (%) 1%

  73. Slide 73: Coca Cola Icecek (CCOLA)

    Coca Cola Icecek (CCOLA, Buy, FV TL43.00, upside 21%) Analyst(s): Evren Gezer Market data TL Free float 25% Stock Performance 1M 3M 6M 12M MCap (mn) 9,056 Foreign stake in free float 87% Absolute (%) 1% -5% -12% 9% T/over (3m avg, mn) 10.2 Weight in BIST-100 0.90% Rel. to BIST-100 (%) -10% -15% -24%

  74. Slide 74: Turkcell (TCELL)

    Turkcell (TCELL, Buy, FV TL17.54, upside 16%) Analyst(s): Evren Gezer Market data TL Free float 49% Stock Performance 1M 3M 6M 12M MCap (mn) 33,220 Foreign stake in free float 91% Absolute (%) 3% 26% 38% 79% T/over (3m avg, mn) 116.7 Weight in BIST-100 6.48% Rel. to BIST-100 (%) -8% 13% 20% 18% 12-m

  75. Slide 75: Turkish Airlines (THYAO)

    Turkish Airlines (THYAO, Hold, FV TL15.80, downside 2%) Analyst(s): Evren Gezer Market data TL Free float 50% Stock Performance 1M 3M 6M 12M MCap (mn) 22,356 Foreign stake in free float 67% Absolute (%) 30% 81% 101% 232% T/over (3m avg, mn) 1,122.6 Weight in BIST-100 4.45% Rel. to BIST-100 (%) 16% 6

  76. Slide 76: Tekfen Holding (TKFEN)

    Tekfen Holding (TKFEN, Buy, FV TL17.17, upside 6%) Analyst(s): Utku Uygur Market data TL Free float 48% Stock Performance 1M 3M 6M 12M MCap (mn) 5,994 Foreign stake in free float 74% Absolute (%) 11% 36% 82% 161% T/over (3m avg, mn) 22.4 Weight in BIST-100 1.15% Rel. to BIST-100 (%) -1% 22% 57% 72%

  77. Slide 77: Important Disclosures

    Important Disclosures BASIS FOR RECOMMENDATIONS None of GMD or its Affiliates accepts any liability or responsibility whatsoever for the accuracy 12-MONTH RATING DEFINITION or completeness of any such information. All estimates, expressions of opinion and other subjective judgments contained herein

  78. Slide 78: Important Disclosures

    Important Disclosures Date of completion of this report: 08.01.2018 08:40 UTC+3 Date of email-distribution of this report: 08.01.2018 08:45 UTC+3 Special additional Regulations for the United States of America: This report and any recommendation (including any opinion, projection, forecast or estima

  79. Slide 79: Ss Ec U RIT! E S§

    Ss Ec U RIT! E S§

Global Menkul Değerler A.Ş. — Investor Presentation (January 2018) on 6ix