Totalenergies Se · EURONEXT:TTE
Totalenergies — Investor Presentation (September 2020)
38 slides from Totalenergies's investor presentation, Sep 29, 2020
Slide 1: Total Energy Outlook 2020
Total Energy Outlook 2020
Slide 2: More energy, less carbon
More energy, less carbon The world needs a Net Zero ambition More people, with better living standards Less carbon Europe Assumptions Collective mobilization • World population: from 7.6 to 9.7 Ghab in 2050 • Paris Agreement • World GDP to grow +3.3%/yr • Regulations & mandates at State & Local leve
Slide 3: Worldwide emissions
Worldwide emissions Facts for the climate challenge Worldwide CO2 emissions Gt 40 Process emissions Land-use Industry Energy users Transport 20 Buildings Other energy Energy suppliers production and transformation Power and Heat generation 2018 Net Zero target requires decarbonization of both energy
Slide 4: Total Energy Outlook scenarios addressing more energy and less carbon
Total Energy Outlook 2 scenarios addressing more energy and less carbon Momentum Rupture Green Deal in Europe All countries committed towards Net Zero with Outside of Europe, actions based on countries strong shifts in public policies targets & 2019 NDCs Technology break-throughs are a prerequisite,
Slide 5: Key modeling drivers of our scenarios
Key modeling drivers of our scenarios Sector based assumptions 2018 Momentum 2050 Rupture 2050 Strong electrification ~20% of final demand ~30% ~40% of end-use solar+wind: ~100 GW/y Deep decarbonization Pace x2 Pace x5 capacity additions of power supply (> 200GW/y) (> 500GW/y) since 2010 ~0.1% green
Slide 6: Key drivers for more energy & less carbon
Key drivers for more energy & less carbon Our forward looking approach • Energy demand increasing in all scenarios • Liquids & Gases will become greener: increased penetration of renewable fuels • Electrification of end-uses is massive and gaining pace – the power sector must be • Promising potentia
Slide 7: Total Energy Outlook 2020 Momentum & Rupture scenarios
Total Energy Outlook 2020 Momentum & Rupture scenarios
Slide 8: Momentum scenario overview
Momentum scenario overview A multi-energy transition coupled with high energy efficiency World primary energy demand World primary energy demand Mboe/d Mboe/d 400 Other Renewables GDP/ capita Bioenergy* Nuclear GDP/ 200 Natural Gas capita Population Population Energy Oil Energy efficiency efficiency
Slide 9: Rupture scenario overview
Rupture scenario overview Net Zero requires radical transformation of our energy consumption World primary energy demand World CO2 emissions Mboe/d Gt/y 400 40 Momentum Other Renewables 200 Bioenergy* 20 Nuclear Natural Gas Rupture Oil Coal 2018 2050 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Momentum Ruptu
Slide 10: Momentum: end-user energy demand
Momentum: end-user energy demand Electricity takes the lead over oil Total final consumption Share of electricity in total final consumption Mboe/d % Other renewables 40% H2 Heat 200 Electricity Bioenergy* 20% Natural Gas Oil 26 22 Coal 2018 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Momentum • Electricity
Slide 11: Rupture: end-user energy demand
Rupture: end-user energy demand Massive electrification key to decarbonization Total final consumption Share of electricity in total final consumption Mboe/d % Rupture 40% Other renewables H2 200 Heat Electricity Momentum 20% Bioenergy* Natural Gas Oil Coal 2018 2050 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20
Slide 12: Momentum: power demand
Momentum: power demand All sectors electrifying World power demand by sector Focus on Res. & Com. + Industry demand TWh TWh 60,000 60,000 Fuel switch Population Other energy transf. & GDP 40,000 Electricity for H2 40,000 Transport Efficiency Industry 20,000 20,000 Res. & Com. 2018 2050 2018 2050 Mom
Slide 13: Rupture: power demand
Rupture: power demand Electricity is the energy of the 21st century World power demand by sector Industry final energy mix TWh Mboe/d Other energy 60,000 100 transf. Electricity for H2 Transport 40,000 Other low- carbon end-use Industry 50 Electricity 20,000 Res. & Com. CCS-abated Fossil fuels 2018
Slide 14: Momentum: power generation
Momentum: power generation Renewables taking the lion’s share World power generation by fuel World solar & wind capacities TWh GW 2,000 4,000 6,000 60,000 2018 Other renewables Offshore wind x25 Offshore wind 2050 Onshore wind 40,000 Solar 2018 Bioenergy Onshore wind x5 Hydro 2050 20,000 Nuclear Nat
Slide 15: Rupture: power generation
Rupture: power generation Deep decarbonization, through solar & wind World power generation by fuel World power generation emission factor TWh gCO2/kWh 600 Other renewables 60,000 Offshore wind Onshore wind 40,000 Momentum Solar 300 Bioenergy 20,000 Hydro Nuclear Rupture Natural Gas Oil Coal 2018 20
Slide 16: Momentum: gases demand
Momentum: gases demand Natural gas is key in energy transition Gases demand Natural gas demand by region Bcm* 6,000 Green Gases Gas for H2 Middle East Transport Asia Energy transf. Africa 4,000 Res. & Com. ~3,800 Bcm ~5,700 Bcm Industry Other Europe & Eurasia 2,000 EU29 Power Gen Americas 2018 2050
Slide 17: Rupture: gases demand
Rupture: gases demand Growth and versatility of natural gas Gases demand World gases supply in Rupture Bcm* Bcm* All gases 6,000 6000 (incl. H2) Gas for Blue H2 Methane Energy Transf. Natural gas Transport 4000 Res. & Com. 3,000 Industry 2000 Power Gen 2018 2050 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Momentu
Slide 18: Gases supply
Gases supply Gas going greener World gases supply by type World gases decarbonization in Rupture Bcm* Bcm* Blue & Green H2 6,000 Biomethane 6,000 Nat. gas Blue & Green with CCS Low-carbon Hydrogen gases Biomethane 4,000 3,000 Nat. gas Natural Gas+ w/o CCS 2,000 2018 2050 2050 2018 2050 Momentum Rupt
Slide 19: Momentum: liquids demand
Momentum: liquids demand Oil will be complemented by biofuels Liquids demand Liquids and oil demand Mb/d Mb/d 100 100 Liquids Biofuels Oil Transport 50 50 Industry incl. Petchem Other sectors (Res. & Com., power) 2018 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Momentum • Acceleration of innovation to substi
Slide 20: Rupture: liquids demand
Rupture: liquids demand Strong contribution of sustainable liquid fuels Liquids demand Liquids and oil demand Mb/d Mb/d 100 100 Liquids (Momentum) Oil (Momentum) Liquids Biofuels and other (Rupture) Sustainable liquid 50 50 fuels (SLF) Oil (Rupture) Transport Industry incl. Petchem Other sectors (Re
Slide 21: Momentum: zoom transport
Momentum: zoom transport Acceleration of oil substitution Energy mix in Transport Oil demand in Transport Mboe/d Mb/d Biogas 120 Traffic Natural gas Hydrogen Electricity 50 SLF* 80 Efficiency Electricity Oil 40 H2 & Gas Bio. 2018 2050 2018 2050 Momentum Momentum • Decrease by ~25% of carbon intensit
Slide 22: Momentum: zoom transport
Momentum: zoom transport Energy mix changes varying across sectors Transport energy mix by sector Light Vehicles World fleet Mboe/d millions Light Duty Heavy Duty 30 Vehicles 30 Vehicles 2,500 2,000 EVs 1,500 1,000 2018 2050 2018 2050 Mom. Mom. Aviation Shipping 500 Non-EVs 10 10 2000 2010 2020 2030
Slide 23: Rupture: zoom transport
Rupture: zoom transport Moving towards Net Zero requires a revolution in transport Transport energy mix Most promising energies by Transport categories Mboe/d % total demand 0% 20% 40% 60% Biogas 2018 Natural gas Shipping Mom. 50 %Gases Hydrogen Rup. Electricity 2018 Aviation Mom. %SLF Rup. SLF Heav
Slide 24: Low-carbon hydrogen
Low-carbon hydrogen Emerging as a promising contributor to Net Zero World hydrogen supply Green and Blue H2 use by sector MtH2 in Rupture (2050) Others 300 Power Transport 200 19 Mboe/d Res. & Com. 100 Industry 2020 2030 2040 2050 Blue H2 Green H2 Momentum • Big potential in Transport (gas & H2-base
Slide 25: Zoom Petrochemicals
Zoom Petrochemicals Recycling and single use plastics ban limiting oil demand for plastics Oil demand for petrochemicals Impacts on oil demand for petrochemicals Mb/d Mb/d 15 Recycling Momentum 20 10 Rupture Recycling Plastic SUP* ban 5 Growth China/EU SUP* ban ROW 2018 2050 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030
Slide 26: Energy supply
Energy supply Investment required to meet demand trends Natural gas supply Oil supply Solar & wind capacities Bcm Mb/d GW 100 20,000 6,000 Rupture Momentum Momentum Rupture 4,000 50 10,000 New projects Rupture Momentum 2,000 New projects New projects Infill wells Infills Developed Developed 2018 205
Slide 27: CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions A rupture is needed, including CCS & NBS, to abate emissions Worldwide energy-related CO2 emissions Gt/y 40 CCS NBS Energy users 20 CCS Energy suppliers NBS 2018 2050 2050 Momentum Rupture • Rupture: CCS and NBS necessary to get to Net Zero • CCS mainly on power generation and industry
Slide 28: Total Energy Outlook 2020 Zoom Europe
Total Energy Outlook 2020 Zoom Europe
Slide 29: Key modeling drivers of our Green Deal scenario
Key modeling drivers of our Green Deal scenario Carbon neutrality requires a new energy system 2018 Green Deal 2050 Strong electrification Massive electrification, ~20% of final energy demand of end-use up to ~45% Deep decarbonization Coal share in generation Coal completely phased-out of power supp
Slide 30: EU29 CO2 emissions
EU29 CO2 emissions Facts of the challenge 2018 EU29 CO2 emissions Gt 4 Process emissions 3 Res. & Com. Energy users Transport 2 Industry 1 Other energy production Energy suppliers and transformation Power and Heat 0 generation Land-use -1 • Reaching Net Zero requires a combination of regulation, mar
Slide 31: Europe Net Zero 2050 – illustrative Green Deal scenario
Europe Net Zero 2050 – illustrative Green Deal scenario Carbon neutrality drives major transformations EU29 primary energy demand EU29 CO2 emissions Mboe/d Gt/y 40 4 20 No Green Deal Renewables Bioenergy* Nuclear Green Deal Natural Gas Oil Coal 2018 2050 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 No Green G
Slide 32: Europe Net Zero - power outlook
Europe Net Zero - power outlook Renewables at the heart of Europe’s electrification EU29 power generation by fuel Europe electricity demand growth in Green Deal TWh TWh Efficiency Other renewables Electrification 5,000 Offshore wind 5,000 Onshore wind Res. & Com. + Industry H2 Solar Production Trans
Slide 33: Europe Net Zero – gases supply & demand
Europe Net Zero – gases supply & demand Gas keeps a central role Europe Gases demand Europe gases decarbonization in Green Deal Bcm* Bcm* 600 600 Nat. gas w/o CCS Blue & Green H2 Natural gas for Blue H2 Other energy transf. Transport Biomethane Low - 300 300 Nat. gas carbon Res. & Com. gases with CC
Slide 34: Europe Net Zero - zoom green gases
Europe Net Zero - zoom green gases Green gases support the European deep decarbonization European hydrogen supply European biomethane supply MtH2 Mboe/d Bcm 3 2 30 100 1 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Blue H2 Green H2 No Green Deal Green Deal No Green Deal • Blue H2 likely to
Slide 35: Europe Net Zero – oil demand
Europe Net Zero – oil demand Green Deal reinventing transport Europe oil demand Europe transport energy mix* Light vehicles fleet Mb/d Mboe/d Millions 10 Others (Res. & Com., energy transf., power, etc.) 5 200 Industry Natural gas EVs Biogas Hydrogen Domestic transport Electricity SLF Non-EVs Oil 20
Slide 36: 10 no-regret moves towards decarbonization
10 no-regret moves towards decarbonization Europe paving the way to carbon neutrality Doubling Efficient EU Increase energy efficiency the pace Put a higher price on CO2 ETS / CBAM* (vs hist. trend) 80% coming Complete Make electricity greener from REN Eliminate coal phase-out in power Pursue gases
Slide 37: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This document may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities However, in certain instances, transactions such as restructuring costs or asset disposals, which are not Litigation Reform Act of 1995, notably with respect to the financial condition, resul
Slide 38: total.com
For more information, please visit total.com TOTAL S.E. Investor Relations 10 Upper Bank Street, Canary Wharf London E14 5BF United Kingdom Share capital: 6,632,810,062.50 euros 542 051 180 RCS Nanterre Reception: +33 (0)1 47 44 45 46 total.com Investor Relations: +44 (0)207 719 7962
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