First Horizon Corporation · NYSE:FHN
First Horizon — Investor Presentation (September 2024)
33 slides from First Horizon's investor presentation, Sep 17, 2024
Slide 1: Quarterly Conversations Market Update
MARKET UPDATE Quarterly Conversations September 17, 2024 1
Slide 2: Moderator: Alex Hernandez
MODERATOR Alex Hernandez Managing Director, Music, Sports, Entertainment and Motorsports First Horizon Bank QUARTERLY CONVERSATIONS | September 2024 2
Slide 3: Presenter: Tracy Bell, CFA
PRESENTER Tracy Bell, CFA® Chief Investment Officer First Horizon Advisors, Inc. QUARTERLY CONVERSATIONS | September 2024 3
Slide 4: Disclosure
DISCLOSURE Investments: Not A Deposit | Not Guaranteed By The Bank Or Its Affiliates | Not FDIC Insured | Not Insured By Any Federal Government Agency | May Go Down In Value First Horizon Advisors is the trade name for wealth management products and services provided by First Horizon Bank and its af
Slide 5: The Dual Mandate & Market Transitions
The Dual Mandate & Market Transitions QUARTERLY CONVERSATIONS | September 2024 5
Slide 6: Inflation, Employment, Interest Rates
Inflation, Employment, Interest Rates Balancing Inflation, Employment, & Economic Growth INFLATION EMPLOYMENT INTEREST RATES • Fed Confidence in 2% • Labor Market More Normal • Inflation, Growth, • Shelter & Health Care • Wage Growth Slower Employment Still Sticky • Travel of Trend? • Market Expecta
Slide 7: Fed Speak
Fed Speak “In recent months, there has been modest further progress towards the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective.” “The Committee does not expect to it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent
Slide 8: Fed Speak
Fed Speak “After a pause earlier this year, progress towards our 2 percent objective has resumed. My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2 percent.” “The unemployment rate began to rise over a year ago and is now at 4.3 percent – still low by historical standards, bu
Slide 9: Slowing Inflation Resumed
Slowing Inflation Resumed Source: Factset, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Atlanta Federal Reserve QUARTERLY CONVERSATIONS | September 2024 9
Slide 10: Normalized Job Market
Normalized Job Market Chart Source: First Horizon Advisors Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics QUARTERLY CONVERSATIONS | September 2024 10
Slide 11: Fewer Job Openings But Little Rise in Layoffs
Fewer Job Openings But Little Rise in Layoffs Source: Factset, Bureau of Labor Statistics QUARTERLY CONVERSATIONS | September 2024 11
Slide 12: Labor Market: Slower Wage Growth
Labor Market: Slower Wage Growth Source: Factset, Bureau of Labor Statistics QUARTERLY CONVERSATIONS | September 2024 12
Slide 13: Labor Market Back in Balance
Labor Market Back in Balance Source: FactSet, Bureau of Labor Statistics QUARTERLY CONVERSATIONS | September 2024 13
Slide 14: GDP Growth Still Solid & Back on Trend
GDP Growth Still Solid & Back on Trend Source: FactSet, Bureau of Economic Analysis QUARTERLY CONVERSATIONS | September 2024 14
Slide 15: GDP Growth Third Quarter 2024 Expectation
GDP Growth Third Quarter 2024 Expectation Source: Atlanta Federal Reserve at https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow QUARTERLY CONVERSATIONS | September 2024 15
Slide 16: Consumers Feel Lukewarm
Consumers Feel Lukewarm Tech Stock Run COVID Sept. 11th & Recession Great Financial Crisis & Great Recession Source: FactSet, Conference Board QUARTERLY CONVERSATIONS | September 2024 16
Slide 17: Small Business Optimism Low
Small Business Optimism Low Tech Stock Run Sept. 11th & Recession COVID Great Financial Crisis & Great Recession Source: FactSet, National Federation of Independent Businesses QUARTERLY CONVERSATIONS | September 2024 17
Slide 18: Larger Company Confidence Okay
Larger Company Confidence Okay Tech Stock Run COVID Sept. 11th & Great Financial Crisis & Recession Great Recession Source: FactSet, Conference Board QUARTERLY CONVERSATIONS | September 2024 18
Slide 19: Loan Delinquencies
Loan Delinquencies Great Financial Crisis & Great Recession Tech Stock Run Sept. 11th & Recession COVID Source: FactSet, Federal Reserve QUARTERLY CONVERSATIONS | September 2024 19
Slide 20: Economic Data vs Expectations?
Economic Data vs Expectations? Source: FactSet, Citigroup QUARTERLY CONVERSATIONS | September 2024 20
Slide 21: Interest Rates
Interest Rates Source: FactSet, Federal Reserve QUARTERLY CONVERSATIONS | September 2024 21
Slide 22: Fed Funds Interest Rates
Fed Funds Interest Rates Current Level -0.25% -0.50% -0.25% -0.25% -0.25% Data Source: CME FedWatch Tool at https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html Chart Source: First Horizon Advisors QUARTERLY CONVERSATIONS | September 2024 22
Slide 23: 2024 and 2025 Outlook
2024 and 2025 Outlook What is Expected for 2024? FactSet Consensus Expectations as of September 10, 2024 Unemployment Real GDP Inflation CPI Rate Consensus Estimate 2.40% 2.90% 4.10% Source: FactSet Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections - June 2024 Unemployment Federal Funds Real GDP Infla
Slide 24: Earnings Estimates & Valuation Ranges
Earnings Estimates & Valuation Ranges S&P 500 Earnings and Valuations S&P 500 Index Earnings per Share Consensus Estimates as of September 10, 2024 2023 2024 2025 High $ 245.00 $ 279.46 Mean $ 226.30 $ 243.87 $ 279.46 Low $ 242.73 $ 279.46 Source: FactSet Five Year Range of NTM PE Ratios Applied to
Slide 25: Earnings Estimates
Earnings Estimates S&P 500 Expected EPS Growth By Sector as of September 11, 2024 2024 2025 S&P 500 Index 10.0% 15.3% EPS Growth Expected By Market Cap Communication Services 17.7% 17.0% as of September 11, 2024 Consumer Discretionary 12.4% 14.3% 2024 2025 Consumer Staples 3.1% 6.9% S&P 500 Index (L
Slide 26: Index 3 Year Total Return
Index 3 Year Total Return Source: FactSet QUARTERLY CONVERSATIONS | September 2024 26
Slide 27: S&P 500 Volatility Around Presidential Elections
S&P 500 Volatility Around Presidential Elections Source: FactSet QUARTERLY CONVERSATIONS | September 2024 27
Slide 28: S&P 500 Performance By Administration
S&P 500 Performance By Administration This should be blue. QUARTERLY CONVERSATIONS | September 2024 28
Slide 29: Five Factor Framework
Five Factor Framework ECONOMIC GROWTH MARKET VALUATIONS TREND INVESTOR MONETARY PSYCHOLOGY CONDITIONS Source: First Horizon Advisors QUARTERLY CONVERSATIONS | September 2024 29
Slide 30: Q&A
Q&A Alex Hernandez Tracy Bell, CFA® Managing Director, Chief Investment Officer Music, Sports, Entertainment and Motorsports First Horizon Advisors, Inc. First Horizon Bank QUARTERLY CONVERSATIONS | September 2024
Slide 31: Closing
Closing Alex Hernandez Managing Director, Music, Sports, Entertainment and Motorsports First Horizon Bank QUARTERLY CONVERSATIONS | September 2024 31
Slide 32: Please reach out to your banker or advisor
Please reach out to your banker or advisor with any questions or to set up a meeting with our economists. A recording of this event will be forwarded next week. QUARTERLY CONVERSATIONS | September 2024 32
Slide 33: Thank you.
Thank you. QUARTERLY CONVERSATIONS | September 2024 33
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