Slide 1: Investor Presentation February 2020
Investor Presentation February 2020
Slide 2: Forward Looking Statements
Forward Looking Statements 2 Certain statements and other information included in this presentation constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looking statements") under applicable securities laws (such statements are often accompanied by words s
Slide 3: Nutrien Overview
Nutrien Feeding the Future Nutrien Overview
Slide 4: Nutrien: Best-positioned Company in the Ag Sector
Nutrien: 4 Best-positioned Company in the Ag Sector Broad exposure to Ag Value Chain • Positioned to help our customers be more profitable, productive and sustainable with the strength of our people, products, supply chain, data and technology Integrated model has unique competitive advantages • Ope
Slide 5: Leading Global Integrated Ag Solutions Provider
Leading Global Integrated Ag Solutions Provider 5 Nutrien has a unique global footprint and well positioned assets North and South America >500,000 Grower accounts worldwide >11% Digitally enabled Retail sales LEGEND: in 20191 RETAIL GRANULATION POTASH LOVELAND PRODUCTS AND AFFILIATED FACILITIES NIT
Slide 6: Potash: Established Supply Chain Supporting Our Reliable and Flexible Network
Potash: Established Supply Chain Supporting 6 Our Reliable and Flexible Network Our focus in Potash is to strengthen our industry-leading position through further network optimization Potash Sales Volumes1 (2019) Million Tonnes 11.5 Scale • World’s largest potash producer • Integrated supply chain t
Slide 7: Nitrogen: Well Positioned Assets
Nitrogen: Well Positioned Assets 7 Diverse asset base located in low-cost natural gas regions generates exceptional margins and cash flow Sales Volumes1 2019 Urea Cash Cost & Price Comparison Million Tonnes US$/MT $400 Feedstock Other Cost 2020 YTD PNW Urea Price 10.3 $300 1.7 Offshore 2020 YTD NOLA
Slide 8: Stability & Growth in Retail Earnings
Stability & Growth in Retail Earnings 8 Retail margins and EBITDA have grown consistently despite challenging Ag market conditions & weather issues +5% CAGR +52% Increase $1,400-$1,500 $1,500 11% 10% $1,206 $1,231 $1,200 $1,119 $1,145 $1,091 $1,033 9.6% $986 9.5% $951 9.3% 9.3% 9% $900 $769 8.6% 8.5
Slide 9: Nutrien is Growing Earnings and Cash Flow
Nutrien is Growing Earnings and Cash Flow 9 Strong earnings and cash flow despite challenging market conditions, highlighting the strength of our business model and asset mix Nutrien Adjusted EBITDA Free Cash Flow US$ Billions US$ Billions 2020F Range Free Cash Flow Free Cash Flow including changes
Slide 10: Integrated Model Provides Strategic Advantages
Integrated Model Provides Strategic Advantages 10 Stability of long-term Retail earnings supports dividend and provides opportunity to allocate capital more efficiently through the cycle Through-the-Cycle Capital Allocation 2019 Capital Allocation Nutrien’s Advantage Percent NPK Prices Enhance $66 b
Slide 11: Nutrien Providing Sector-leading Returns of Capital
Nutrien Providing Sector-leading Returns of Capital 11 NTR returned $5.7B3 to shareholders by way of dividends and share repurchases and possesses one of the highest dividend yields among its peers at 4.4%2 Share Repurchases and Dividends as a % of Market Cap1 (Percent) 22% NTR Peers 15% 13% 7% 8% 6
Slide 12: Market Fundamentals
Nutrien Feeding the Future Market Fundamentals
Slide 13: Positive 2020 Market Outlook Factors
Positive 2020 Market Outlook Factors 13 >14M ~20% Increase in seeded acres in US Expected increase in US corn this spring (13M more corn & farmer’s per acre margins over soybean acres) 2019 levels $40B ~40% Expected Chinese purchases of Increase in Palm oil prices from Ag products in recent US / Chi
Slide 14: Ag Fundamentals are Improving
Ag Fundamentals are Improving 14 Lower US corn and soybean production has led to a tightened supply/demand balance US Corn & Soybean Acreage US Corn & Soybean Ending Stocks Million Acres Million Bushels 94 2,500 Corn 90 90 90 90 89 85 76 2,000 1,500 1,000 Soybeans 500 0 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2017 201
Slide 15: Ag Fundamentals are Improving: Grower Margins
Ag Fundamentals are Improving 15 Improved prospective grower margin expected for most crops in 2020 driven by trend yields; Lowest fertilizer cost as a percentage of US corn revenue since 2010/11 Key Crop Grower Cash Margins Local Currency Margin/Acre US Corn US Soybean US Wheat US Cotton CDN Canola
Slide 16: 2019 was an Abnormal Year When it Came to Growth
2019 was an Abnormal Year When it Came to 16 Growth Long-term averages highlight upside potential from 2019 downturn Global Grain & Oilseed Consumption & Nutrient Demand Global Grain & Oilseeds Consumption Global Nutrient Demand 2.2% 1.9% 0.8% -0.9% 10-year CAGR 2010-20 2019 February 25, 2020
Slide 17: Cyclical recovery in progress up until mid-2019
Cyclical recovery in progress up until mid-2019 17 Cyclical recovery evident in 2017/18 impacted in 2019 by exogenous factors Global fertilizer demand growth expected to rebound Global Fertilizer Prices Jan 2016 = 100 200 Potash - CFR Brazil Urea - NOLA FOB 175 10 Year 150 Avg. Price 125 100 75 50 J
Slide 18: Operating Segment Growth Platforms and Sustainability Overview
Operating Segment Growth Platforms and Sustainability Overview
Slide 19: Potash: 6Mmt of Available Production Capacity
Potash: 6Mmt of Available Production Capacity 19 Existing mine network has the capacity to increase production to 18Mmt Potash Operational Capability Millions of Tonnes Upside Drivers to 18Mmt • Demand surpasses expectations +6Mmt 18Mmt • New supply ramps-up slower than announced 11.7Mmt1 • Existing
Slide 20: Nitrogen: Efficiency and Targeted Expansion
Nitrogen: Efficiency and Targeted Expansion 20 Plan to increase sales and production volumes by ~1M tonnes in 2020 Nitrogen Sales Volumes1 Millions of Tonnes Path to Growth in 2020 0.7-1.3M Network Optimization • Nine low-cost facilities 11-11.6 • Extensive distribution network 10.6 10.3 Operation E
Slide 21: Retail Growth: Nutrien Ag Solutions Digital Platform
Retail Growth: Nutrien Ag Solutions Digital Platform 21 Digital Progress Yr1 (2019 N. America) ✓ Purchasing of key crop protection products, order online or have your agronomist do it on your behalf Retail Sales ordered $260M through the Digital Platform ✓ Pay bills online, past purchases, 2020 Targ
Slide 22: Retail Growth: Nutrien Financial & Brazil Expansion
Retail Growth: Nutrien Financial & Brazil Expansion 22 Nutrien Financial Brazil Growth ✓ Share of Wallet: One Stop Shop, help growers with capital $28B crop input market management solutions growing ~3%/yr ✓ Margin: Convenience & move from Price to Value Expect 2020 to be >$30M annual EBITDA ✓ Custo
Slide 23: Nutrien Sustainability Strategy
Nutrien Sustainability Strategy 23 “Our integrated sustainability strategy is addressing our most material ESG risks and providing solutions for a growing world.” Nutrien President and CEO, Chuck Magro February 25, 2020
Slide 24: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 25: Relatively Tight Potash Supply & Demand
Relatively Tight Potash Supply & Demand 25 Expect demand growth and capacity closures to offset capacity additions; operating rates expected to be at or above historical average Global Potash S&D Global Utilization Rate1 Million Tonnes KCl Percent 90 100% Demand 80 Operational Capability 95% 70 60 9
Slide 26: Tightening Global Nitrogen Supply & Demand
Tightening Global Nitrogen Supply & Demand 26 Expect improved global demand and limited new capacity lead to a tighter supply/demand balance in 2020 and the medium-term Global Nitrogen S&D Global Utilization Rate1 Million Tonnes Nitrogen Percent 180 Demand Operational Capability 100% 160 95% 140 120
Slide 27: Global Crop Price Trends
3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 1,600 2,000 2,400 2,800 3,200 Aug-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Dec-18 1. Based on a 60kg sack of soybeans Jan-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Key Crop Prices Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 May-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Palm Oil (MYR/tonne) Chic
Slide 28: US/China Phase 1 Trade Deal has Potential to improve US Grain Markets
US/China Phase 1 Trade Deal has Potential to 28 improve US Grain Markets Agricultural trade expected to rebound sharply with a trade policy resolution; ultimately target is $40-$50B in exports. US Exports of Agriculture & Related Products to China US Billion Dollars • Expect removal of Chinese impor
Slide 29: Global Potash Deliveries by Region
Global Potash Deliveries by Region 29 We project global deliveries approximately 64.5 million tonnes in 2019 and a strong rebound in 2020 to 66-68 million tonnes Million Tonnes KCl 20 15 10 5 0 16 17 18 19E 20F 16 17 18 19E 20F 16 17 18 19E 20F 16 17 18 19E 20F 16 17 18 19E 20F 16 17 18 19E 20F Indi
Slide 30: Retail Network Optimization – Tuck-ins, Targeted Builds & Closures
Retail Network Optimization – Tuck-ins, Targeted 30 Builds & Closures Tuck-in Acquisitions1,3 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total # of Locations Acquired1 33 59 22 32 26 76 44 53 62 407 Annual Sales1 $210 $477 $128 $192 $190 $500+ ~$300 ~$400 ~$450 >$2,800 (U.S. millions) Annual EBITD
Slide 31: Potash: Historically Strong Margins and Volume Growth Throughout the Nutrient Cycle
Potash: Historically Strong Margins and Volume 31 Growth Throughout the Nutrient Cycle Strong potash margins supported by out low-cost mines and extensive distribution network Sales Volume Gross Margin1 Million Tonnes KCl Percent Sales Volumes Gross Margin % of Net Sales 14 90% 80% 12 70% 10 60% 8 5
Slide 32: Nutrien is Strengthening its Retail Business: Strategic Transactions in 2019
Nutrien is Strengthening its Retail Business: 32 Strategic Transactions in 2019 Nutrien is growing geographic footprint and Ag solutions offerings ✓ Environmentally sustainable soil and Actagro is aligned with Nutrien’s plant health and tech strategy to invest in higher-margin ✓ US $55M1 EBITDA prop
Slide 33: Significant Opportunity for Further US Retail Acquisitions
Significant Opportunity for Further US Retail 33 Acquisitions NTR has ~21% market share with only 10% of the facilities Simplot Retail, 2% CHS, 3% Pinnacle, 4% Wilbur-Ellis, 4% Growmark, 5% Co-ops, 30% Helena, 7% Expect to execute on roll- Independents, 24% up opportunity & target to 21% expand busi
Slide 34: Delivering Stable Long-term Retail Earnings Growth
Delivering Stable Long-term Retail Earnings Growth 34 We expect to drive significant growth and value through our strategy to build the ag retailer of the future $2.2 Expected Retail EBITDA range of $1.8B to $2.0 $2.0B by 2023 2023 Retail EBITDA Target Retail EBITDA (USD Millions) $1.9B $1.8 Growth
Slide 35: Retail: A Leading Agricultural Solutions Provider
Retail: A Leading Agricultural Solutions Provider 35 Broad Crop Diversity Complete Ag Solutions Offering Proprietary Products Revenue by Crop (2018) Gross Margin (2019) Gross Margin1 Percent US$ Billions US$ Millions $3.2B 800 Merchandise 3% 700 All Other, 11% 600 Services/Other 18% Cotton, 7% Corn,
Slide 36: Nutrien: Focused on Sustainable Agriculture
Nutrien: Focused on Sustainable Agriculture 36 What have we done? • Obtained external assurance on our 2018 baseline scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions, which we expect to be provided in our 2020 ESG Report • We also engaged in assessing our scope 3 GHG emissions inventory • Developing a comprehensive ESG
Slide 37: Thank You!
Thank You! For further information, visit: www.nutrien.com twitter.com/nutrienltd facebook.com/nutrienltd linkedin.com/company/nutrien youtube.com/nutrien