National Grid plc · LSE:NG.

National Grid — National Grid Operational Forum July 2018

20 slides from National Grid's conference presentation, July 2018

  1. Slide 1: System Cost Update

    System Cost Update July 2018

  2. Slide 2: World Cup and Royal Wedding

    World Cup and Royal Wedding

  3. Slide 3: World Cup 2018 Minute Forecast

    World Cup 2018 Minute Forecast Panama v England – Sunday 24th June 2018 • Half-time Pickup of 500 - 600 MW @ 13:45 + Injury Time. • Full Time pickup of 450 - 550 MW @ 14:45 + Injury Time. • Forecast based on previous world cup games.

  4. Slide 4: World Cup 2018 Historical Data

    World Cup 2018 Historical Data Panama v England – Sunday 24th June 2018 • Red line: England v Slovenia, 3rd match, Group Stage, 23/06/2010, 19:00 GMT • Blue line: England v Tunisia,1st match, Group Stage, 18/06/2018, 19:00 GMT

  5. Slide 5: World Cup 2018 Demand Outturn

    World Cup 2018 Demand Outturn Panama v England – Sunday 24th June 2018 Full-time pickup Half-time pickup 413MW 732MW Actual Forecast Demand outturn for England v Panama match 5

  6. Slide 6: Breakdown: The Royal Wedding 2018

    Breakdown: The Royal Wedding 2018 Ceremony ends Harry and Megan leave the church Ceremony begins During carriage 711 MW Drop-Off Procession, 665 MW 554 MW Pick-Up Drop-Off Royal Family & Bride and Groom Arrive 1500 MW Drop-Off Demand outturn for The Royal Wedding 2018 6

  7. Slide 7: Balancing Service Use of System (BSUoS)

    Balancing Service Use of System (BSUoS)

  8. Slide 8: March 2018: £1.96/MWh

    March 2018 : £1.96/MWh Total Cost: £95.5m, Volume: 48.7TWh 120 Constraints Energy 100 60 60 80 40 40 £m 60 40 20 20 20 0 0 Oct-2017 Nov-2017 Dec-2017 Jan-2018 Feb-2018 Mar-2018 Oct-2017 Nov-2017 Dec-2017 Jan-2018 Feb-2018 Mar-2018 0 Mar-2018 Apr-2018 May-2018 Jun-2018 RoCoF Blackstart Energy Constra

  9. Slide 9: April 2018: £1.89/MWh

    April 2018 : £1.89/MWh Total Cost: £76.4m, Volume: 40.4TWh 120 Constraints Energy 60 60 100 80 40 40 £m 60 40 20 20 20 0 0 Nov-2017 Dec-2017 Jan-2018 Feb-2018 Mar-2018 Apr-2018 Nov-2017 Dec-2017 Jan-2018 Feb-2018 Mar-2018 Apr-2018 0 Mar-2018 Apr-2018 May-2018 Jun-2018 RoCoF Blackstart Energy Constra

  10. Slide 10: May 2018: £1.93/MWh

    May 2018 : £1.93/MWh Total Cost: £78.0m, Volume: 40.4TWh 120 Constraints Energy 60 60 100 80 40 40 £m 60 40 20 20 20 0 0 Dec-2017 Jan-2018 Feb-2018 Mar-2018 Apr-2018 May-2018 Dec-2017 Jan-2018 Feb-2018 Mar-2018 Apr-2018 May-2018 0 Mar-2018 Apr-2018 May-2018 Jun-2018 RoCoF Blackstart Energy Constrain

  11. Slide 11: June 2018: £2.81/MWh

    June 2018 : £2.81/MWh Total Cost : £99.0m, Volume: 35.2TWh 120 Constraints Energy 100 60 60 80 40 40 £m 60 40 20 20 20 0 0 Jan-2018 Feb-2018 Mar-2018 Apr-2018 May-2018 Jun-2018 Jan-2018 Feb-2018 Mar-2018 Apr-2018 May-2018 Jun-2018 0 Mar-2018 Apr-2018 May-2018 Jun-2018 RoCoF Blackstart Energy Constra

  12. Slide 12: Balancing Service Use of System (BSUoS) Forecasting

    Balancing Service Use of System (BSUoS) Forecasting

  13. Slide 13: BSUoS 18/19 forecast – as at July 2018

    BSUoS 18/19 forecast – as at July 2018 Total BSUoS BSUoS Volume Costs +£9m +5.1TWh +£0/MWh £1132.3 503.1 £2.25/ m TWh MWh £927.8m balancing BSUoS volume costs forecast + £204.5m internal costs

  14. Slide 14: BSUoS sensitivity analysis 18/19

    BSUoS sensitivity analysis 18/19 Total BSUoS BSUoS Costs Volume HVDC in service end of £1149 503 £2.28/ October instead of end m TWh MWh of August +£17m +£0.03/MWh Total BSUoS BSUoS Costs Volume High wind and high embedded outturn, lower £1222 493 £2.48/ BSUoS volume, higher m TWh MWh footroom / mar

  15. Slide 15: Forecast Accuracy – BSUoS Report

    Forecast Accuracy – BSUoS Report Historical outturn vs year ahead forecast 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 £/MWh 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Esitimated BSUoS Charge (£/MWh) Year ahead forecast (£/MWh) Month ahead forecast vs actual

  16. Slide 16: Forecast improvements and transparency

    Forecast improvements and transparency 2018 Work programme timeline Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Publication of daily balancing costs and volume summary Complete Improve the current monthly average BSUoS forecast Complete Aim to make all underlying data available in Excel format Complete Separate BSUoS forecast repo

  17. Slide 17: New Reporting: Daily Balancing Cost Report

    New Reporting Daily Balancing Cost Report (available now) https://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/electricity/market-operations-and-data/system-balancing-reports

  18. Slide 18: New Reporting: BSUoS Forecast Report

    New Reporting BSUoS Forecast Report (available now) https://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/electricity/market-operations-and-data

  19. Slide 19: New Reporting: MBSS Report

    New Reporting MBSS Report (available now) https://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/electricity/market-operations-and-data

  20. Slide 20: BSUoS developments

    BSUoS developments Default tariff cap legislation – methodology for calculating cap Ofgem consultation closed on the 25th June. Statutory consultation will likely be in August 2018 CMP250 – proposal to fix BSUoS With Ofgem for decision CMP281 – changes to charging of storage, removes import BSUoS ch

National Grid — National Grid Operational Forum July 2018 on 6ix