Slide 1: Michael Metcalfe, Head of Macro Strategy
Michael Metcalfe Head of Macro Strategy mmetcalfe@statestreet.com Aug 2025 8254307.1.1.GBL. 1
Slide 2: Risk appetite index versus business confidence
Risk appetite index versus business confidence State Street Investor Risk Appetite index ISM rhs 100% 65 75% 60 50% 55 25% 0% 50 -25% 45 -50% 40 -75% -100% 35 Jun 04 Jun 10 Jun 16 Jun 22 Source: State Street Markets, Bloomberg 8254307.1.1.GBL. 2
Slide 3: Media intensity on uncertainties; Tariff rates getting firmer for now
Media intensity on uncertainties Tariff rates getting firmer for now US eco policy uncertainty* 30d ma Geopolitical risk** 30d ma rhs 600 225 70 Proposed Aggregate Tariff Rate, % 60 Aggregate Tariff pre-substitution, 15.9% 500 200 50 400 175 40 300 150 30 200 125 20 100 100 10 0 75 0 Jul 24 Oct 24 J
Slide 4: July flows across sectors, equities, sovereign bonds and FX
Sectors Equities Sovereign bonds FX Materials Japan AUD Consumer Canada Discretionary Korea CAD Information Technology Spain CHF Health Care Brazil Germany SEK Utilities China USD Real Estate United Kingdom Italy EUR Communication Services Mexico United Kingdom GBP Energy United States NOK Consumer
Slide 5: Allocations to equities are at their highest level since Nov 2007
Allocations to equities are at their highest level since Nov 2007 60% 54.8% 55% Allocation to equity (%) 50% Long-run average 45% 40% 35% Jul 00 Jul 05 Jul 10 Jul 15 Jul 20 Jul 25 Source: State Street Markets 8254307.1.1.GBL. 5
Slide 6: 8254307.1.1.GBL.
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Slide 7: 8254307.1.1.GBL.
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