Slide 1: Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Presentation
THIRD QUARTER 2024 EARNINGS PRESENTATION October 31, 2024 © 2024 Xcel Energy 1
Slide 2: Safe Harbor
Safe Harbor Except for the historical statements contained in this presentation, the matters discussed herein are forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Such forward-looking statements, including those relating to 2024 and 2025 EPS guidance, long
Slide 3: Xcel Energy 2024 Q3 Highlights
Xcel Energy 2024 Q3 Highlights • Reached settlement in Minnesota Resource Plan • Filed Colorado Resource Plan with up to 14,000 MW of potential capacity from 2028-2031 • Data center pipeline of ~9,000 MW • Updated capital plan of $45 billion for 2025-2029 with $10+ billion pipeline of additional cap
Slide 4: Updated Base Capital Forecast 2025 – 2029
Updated Base Capital Forecast 2025 – 2029 Investment by Function Investment by Driver Other 8% Carbon-Free Other Generation Natural Gas Electric SPS 18% 14% NSPM LDC 8% Distribution 15% 37% 35% T&D Other$22.5 25% Electric $45 Wildfire $45 Resiliency 11% Billion 29% Generation Billion Billion 10% Ren
Slide 5: Strong Rate Base Growth
Strong Rate Base Growth OpCo Base CAGRs Xcel Energy Consolidated Rate Base 2024 – 2029 $73.5 $ Billions $69.7 NSPM PSCo $66.2 $61.3 ~6% ~12% XEL $54.9 ~9% $46.9 NSPW SPS 2024 - 2029 CAGR: ~9.4% ~12% ~8% 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 OpCo CAGRs exclude potential additional capital investment 5
Slide 6: Additional Investment Pipeline
Additional Investment Pipeline • MN resource plan settlement for ~5,000 MW Generation RFPs • SPS resource plan targeting 5,000 – 10,000 MW • Colorado resource plan with up to 14,000 MW $10+ Billion • MISO Tranche 2 Pipeline of Transmission • SPP 2024 ITP Portfolio Additional Investment • Incremental
Slide 7: Resource Plan Updates
Resource Plan Updates • Filed October 2024 • Forecasted need of 5,000 – 14,000 MW of new capacity from 2028 to 2031 Colorado Resource • Assumes 3 – 7% annual sales growth in resource scenarios Plan • Commission decision expected by Fall 2025 • RFPs expected in early 2026 • Settlement filed October 2
Slide 8: Electric Sales Growth Forecast
Electric Sales Growth Forecast Base Retail Electric Sales CAGR (2024-2029) 6.5% 5.9% 5.1% ~5% 0.3% NSPM SPS PSCo NSPW Xcel Energy Sales growth is back-end loaded in the five-year forecast, reflecting new data center load timing 8
Slide 9: Data Center Growth
Data Center Growth Data Center Load Growth 1 GW Data Center Total Customer Requests = ~8,900 MW 1M Residential Customers Data Center Sales CAGR +2.6% 2024 2029 ~3 GW Renewable & Base Data Center Forecast Additional Opportunity Firm Dispatchable 9
Slide 10: Keeping Customer Bills Low
Keeping Customer Bills Low 2014-2024E Residential Electric CAGR = ~1.7% Residential Electricity Share of Wallet* 2014-2024E Natural Gas CAGR = ~(0.8%) 1.59% $98 $98 $99 -13% $89 $83 $84 $84 $80 $81 $81 $80 $81 1.38% Electric $68 $62 $54 $57 $51 $48 $42 $48 $45 $44 Natural Gas 2014 2015 2016 2017 201
Slide 11: Committed to Affordability
Committed to Affordability Average Xcel Energy Residential Bill to National Average* Colorado Michigan North Dakota Minnesota South Dakota Wisconsin** New Mexico Texas 2% 0% -2% -6% -12% -16% -19% -18% -19% -26% -28% Electric Natural Gas -32% -38% * Electric based on 2019-2023 EIA data. Natural Gas
Slide 12: EPS Results by Operating Company
EPS Results by Operating Company Third Quarter YTD Operating Company 2024 2023 2024 2023 NSPM $ 0.45 $ 0.47 $ 1.06 $ 0.95 PSCo 0.45 0.41 1.06 0.97 SPS 0.31 0.30 0.58 0.55 NSPW 0.07 0.06 0.19 0.18 Earnings from equity method investments 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 Regulated utility 1.29 1.25 2.91 2.68 Holdin
Slide 13: Quarterly Ongoing EPS Change
Quarterly Ongoing EPS Change * See slide 12 for GAAP comparison. 13 Amounts may not sum due to rounding
Slide 14: YTD Ongoing EPS Change
YTD Ongoing EPS Change * See slide 12 for GAAP comparison 14
Slide 15: Sales and Customer Data
Sales and Customer Data 2024 YTD W/A Retail Electric Sales Growth 2024 Q3 YoY Electric Customer Growth (leap year adjusted) 5.9% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% -1.1% -2.1% -2.0% NSPM NSPW PSCo SPS Xcel Energy NSPM NSPW PSCo SPS Xcel Energy 2024 YTD W/A Natural Gas Sales Growth 2024 Q3 YoY Natural Gas
Slide 16: PSCo Rate Case Updates
PSCo Rate Case Updates January 2024 request • Revised base rate increase of ~$170 million • ROE of 10.1%, equity ratio of 55% • Rate base of $4.2 billion • 2023 historic test year Colorado Natural Gas Proceeding No. 24AL- October 2024 CPUC decision 0049G • Rate increase of ~$130 million • WACC of 7.
Slide 17: NSPM Rate Case Updates
NSPM Rate Case Updates Minnesota Electric Minnesota Natural Gas North Dakota Natural Gas Proceeding No. TBD Proceeding No. 23-413 Proceeding No. 23-367 November 2024 request November 2023 request December 2023 request • Base rate increase of ~$491 million • Base rate increase of ~$59 million • Base
Slide 18: 2024 Ongoing EPS Guidance: $3.50 - $3.60
2024 Ongoing EPS Guidance: $3.50 - $3.60 Earnings Drivers Key Assumptions (as compared to 2023 levels unless noted) Regulatory proceedings Constructive outcomes in all pending proceedings, including requests for deferral of incremental insurance costs associated with wildfire risk Weather Normal wea
Slide 19: 2025 Ongoing EPS Guidance: $3.75 - $3.85
2025 Ongoing EPS Guidance: $3.75 - $3.85 Earnings Drivers Key Assumptions (as compared to 2024 projected levels unless noted) Constructive outcomes in all pending proceedings, including requests for deferral of Regulatory proceedings incremental insurance costs associated with wildfire risk and reco
Slide 20: Financing Plan 2025 – 2029
Financing Plan 2025 – 2029* $ Millions $4,000 $500 $15,180 $3,730 $3,730 $45,000 $25,320 CFO** Maturing Refinanced Incremental Equity Equity Base Plan LT Debt LT Debt Debt (Other) (DRIP) * Financing plans reflect tax credit transferability and are subject to change ** Cash from operations is net of
Slide 21: Strong Balance Sheet and Credit Metrics
Strong Balance Sheet and Credit Metrics Plan 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 FFO/Debt ~17% ~17% ~17% ~17% ~17% ~17% Debt/EBITDA 5.3x 5.6x 5.4x 5.3x 5.1x 5.0x Equity Ratio 40% 41% 41% 41% 41% 41% Hold Co Debt/Total Debt 24% 23% 21% 22% 22% 22% Credit Ratings Moody’s S&P Fitch Xcel Energy Unsecured Baa1
Slide 22: Balanced Investment Thesis
Balanced Investment Thesis • Met or exceeded earnings guidance for 19 consecutive years Regulated Utility that • Dividend increases for 21 consecutive years Consistently Delivers • Strong balance sheet and credit metrics • Low customer bills and declining share of customer wallet Resilient, Reliable
Slide 23: Balanced Investment Thesis
Balanced Investment Thesis 6-8% EPS Growth ~9-11% Total Shareholder Return ~3-4% Dividend Yield 4-6% CAGR | 50-60% Payout Ratio 23
Slide 24: Appendix
APPENDIX 24
Slide 25: Financial Supplement
FINANCIAL SUPPLEMENT 25
Slide 26: ROE Results – Ongoing Earnings
ROE Results – Ongoing Earnings Ongoing ROE* 2023 Rate Base Twelve Months Ended 9/30/2024 SPS 10.69% 17% 9.56% 9.83% 10.00% NSPM 8.86% 7.66% 37% ~$42 Billion PSCo 40% NSPM NSPW PSCo SPS Total Xcel Energy NSPW OpCo 6% * Ongoing ROEs exclude impacts of workforce reduction and Sherco Unit 3 outage refun
Slide 27: Reconciliation – Ongoing EPS to GAAP EPS
Reconciliation – Ongoing EPS to GAAP EPS 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 YTD Ongoing EPS $2.03 $2.09 $2.21 $2.30 $2.47 $2.64 $2.79 $2.96 $3.17 $3.35 $2.69 Loss on Monticello LCM/EPU Project - (0.16) - - - - - - - - - Impact of Tax Cuts & Jobs Act - - - (0.05) - - - - - - - Los
Slide 28: Base Capital Expenditures by Function
Base Capital Expenditures by Function $ Millions 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Electric Distribution $2,570 $3,000 $3,400 $3,320 $3,540 $15,830 Electric Transmission $2,260 $2,860 $2,740 $2,390 $2,310 $12,560 Renewables $3,360 $1,400 $260 $0 $0 $5,020 Electric Generation $1,210 $1,150 $910 $580 $62
Slide 29: Base Capital Expenditures by Company
Base Capital Expenditures by Company $ Millions 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total NSPM $3,240 $2,500 $2,830 $2,080 $2,570 $13,220 NSPW $640 $650 $690 $660 $670 $3,310 PSCo $5,820 $5,190 $3,940 $3,780 $3,550 $22,280 SPS $1,400 $1,540 $1,280 $1,040 $1,040 $6,300 Other* ($100) ($40) $10 $10 $10 ($110) Tot
Slide 30: NSPM Base Capital Expenditures by Function
NSPM Base Capital Expenditures by Function $ Millions 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Electric Distribution $750 $860 $1,000 $970 $1,130 $4,710 Electric Transmission $560 $710 $810 $330 $530 $2,940 Electric Generation $520 $460 $540 $350 $420 $2,290 Other $450 $340 $340 $290 $360 $1,780 Renewables $7
Slide 31: NSPW Base Capital Expenditures by Function
NSPW Base Capital Expenditures by Function $ Millions 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Electric Transmission $180 $250 $300 $340 $310 $1,380 Electric Distribution $200 $200 $220 $180 $230 $1,030 Other $90 $100 $70 $60 $60 $380 Electric Generation $120 $50 $50 $40 $30 $290 Natural Gas $50 $50 $50 $40 $
Slide 32: PSCo Base Capital Expenditures by Function
PSCo Base Capital Expenditures by Function $ Millions 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Electric Distribution $1,180 $1,430 $1,640 $1,630 $1,640 $7,520 Electric Transmission $1,130 $1,420 $1,060 $1,340 $1,090 $6,040 Renewables $2,240 $1,080 $240 $0 $0 $3,560 Natural Gas $550 $500 $500 $450 $450 $2,450
Slide 33: SPS Base Capital Expenditures by Function
SPS Base Capital Expenditures by Function $ Millions 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Electric Distribution $440 $510 $540 $540 $540 $2,570 Electric Transmission $390 $480 $570 $380 $380 $2,200 Renewables $360 $320 $20 $0 $0 $700 Other $120 $110 $100 $90 $90 $510 Electric Generation $90 $120 $50 $30 $
Slide 34: 2025 Debt Financing Plan
2025 Debt Financing Plan $ Millions Issuer Security Amount Timing Hold Co Unsecured Bonds $800 Q1 NSPM First Mortgage Bonds $1,100 Q2 NSPW First Mortgage Bonds $250 Q2 PSCo First Mortgage Bonds $2,000 Q2 & Q3 SPS First Mortgage Bonds $350 Q2 Financing plans are subject to change, depending on capita
Slide 35: Debt Maturities
Debt Maturities $ Millions $2,000 $1,600 $1,200 $800 $400 $0 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 NSPM NSPW PSCo SPS Hold Co 35
Slide 36: 2024 YTD W/A Electric Sales Growth
2024 YTD W/A Electric Sales Growth NSPM NSPW PSCo SPS Residential C&I Total Retail 7.5% 5.9% -0.2% -0.7% -1.1% -1.5% -2.3% -1.9% -2.0% -1.5% -2.8% -2.1% Leap year adjusted Extreme weather variations, windchill and cloud cover may not be reflected in estimates 36
Slide 37: Xcel Energy W/A Sales Growth
Xcel Energy W/A Sales Growth Residential C&I Total Retail Electric Natural Gas Electric Natural Gas 3.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.7% 1.8% 1.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% -1.3% -0.7% YTD YTD YTD YTD 2022 2023 2024* 2022 2023 2024* 2022 2023 2024* 2022 2023 2024* * Leap year adjusted Extreme weather variations, windchill
Slide 38: RFP Schedule
RFP Schedule RFP In-Service By Status • Settlement pending MPUC approval (2025 Q1) 800 MW Firm Dispatchable 2028 • 420 MW company-owned gas CT • 300 MW company-owned battery • Recommendation filing 2024 Q4 1,200 MW Build-Own-Transfer Wind 2027-2028 • Commission decision expected mid-2025 NSP • Recom
Slide 39: Wildfire Mitigation
WILDFIRE MITIGATION 39
Slide 40: Wildfire Risk Reduction Framework
Wildfire Risk Reduction Framework Situational awareness Stakeholder communications Weather stations, cameras, meteorology Communication, coordination, and real-time data Operational mitigations Data and technology Wildfire safety operations (WSO) and Innovative capabilities and a wildfire mitigation
Slide 41: Colorado Wildfire Mitigation Plan 2025 – 2027
Colorado Wildfire Mitigation Plan 2025 – 2027 83% System Resiliency 50 miles of undergrounded System power lines 12% Resiliency $1.53 billion 10,000 pole replacements, Operational with a focus on higher Mitigations 59%** risk areas Pole Remediation $217 million 4% Efforts $897 million $1.9 Operation
Slide 42: Smokehouse Creek Fire
Smokehouse Creek Fire • Our distribution poles appear to have been involved in an ignition of the Smokehouse Creek Fire and the smaller Reamer Fire (which burned into the Smokehouse Creek Fire) – We dispute claims that we acted negligently in maintaining and operating our infrastructure – We have es
Slide 43: Marshall Wildfire
Marshall Wildfire • Xcel Energy agrees with the Sheriff that Twelve Tribes caused the first ignition – which was burning for more than an hour before the second ignition • We strongly disagree with the conclusions in the Sheriff’s report that we caused the second ignition, which reportedly started 8
Slide 44: Marshall Fire Spread Timeline
Marshall Fire Spread Timeline By the time of the second ignition (~12:20 p.m.), fire from first ignition had already spread to Superior (1) Approximately 11 a.m. – First ignition on Twelve Tribe’s property (2) 12:03 p.m. – Fire reported past Howard Barry Water Treatment Plant 2 (3) 12:06 p.m. – “F
Slide 45: Marshall Fire Spread Timeline
Marshall Fire Spread Timeline Red/Orange Dots Show Property Damage Fire Spread Leading to Time of Second Ignition Source: Denver Post 45
Slide 46: © 2024 Xcel Energy
© 2024 Xcel Energy 46