Muhlenkamp Fund · NASDAQ:MUHLX

Muhlenkamp Fund — Muhlenkamp & Company — Investor Presentation (October 2022)

17 slides from Muhlenkamp Fund's investor presentation, Oct 5, 2022

  1. Slide 1: Muhlenkamp & Company October 5, 2022

    Muhlenkamp & Company October 5, 2022 Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management © 2022 All rights reserved.

  2. Slide 2: Welcome

    Welcome • Today’s problems come from yesterday’s “solutions”. – Peter Senge • Tomorrow’s problems will come from today’s “solutions”. – Jeff’s corollary Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management

  3. Slide 3: Our Checklist: Current State and Future Outlook

    What we observe as the Our Checklist: Current State: Future Outlook: 1. Inflation US CPI 8.3% y/y Likely to decline near term, but how much? 2. Federal Reserve and Treasury Fed tightening, Treasury Fed test ahead loose No change at Treasury 3. Consumer spending Selective Impact of Inflation? 4. Busi

  4. Slide 4: US Real GDP 1970 - 2023(e)

    % Change y/y -4 -2 10 0 2 4 6 8 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 Data Sources: Bloomberg 1982 1983 1984 1985 The Conference Board 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Recession 1993 1994 1995 1996 Actual 1997 1998 1999 US Real GDP 2000 1970 - 2023(e) 2001 Forecast 2002 2003

  5. Slide 5: US Inflation, Interest, and Mortgage Rates Since 1970

    US Inflation, Interest, and Mortgage Rates Since 1970 (quarterly) 25 20 15 10 % 5 0 -5 Recession y/y Change in CPI Fed Funds effective rate 10 yr yield 30 yr Mortgage rate Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Bloomberg terminal Quarterly, last data point 6/28/2022

  6. Slide 6: Consumer Confidence Jan 1995 - June 2022

    Consumer Confidence Jan 1995 - June 2022 (Qtrly) 160 140 120 100 Index Value 80 60 40 20 0 Data source: Consumer Confidence: Conference Board via Bloomberg Terminal values indexed 1985 = 100 Last data point 6/30/2022

  7. Slide 7: US New Home Sales and Median Prices

    US New Home Sales and Median Prices Jan 2007 to Jul 2022 500 1200 450 1000 400 Houses Sold Annually, SAAR (1,000) 350 800 Median Price ($1,000) 300 250 600 200 400 150 100 200 50 0 0 Recession Median Price (left axis) Houses sold, annual, SAAR (right axis) Data source: US Census Bureau SAAR: Seasona

  8. Slide 8: US Light Vehicle Sales SAAR

    US Light Vehicle Sales SAAR Jan 2000 - Aug 2022 22 20 Vehicle sales, SAAR, in millions 18 16 14 12 10 8 Recession US Light Vehicle Sales SAAR Data source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate via Bloomberg.

  9. Slide 9: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

    NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Jan 1995 - Jul 2022 120 115 110 105 Index Value 100 95 90 85 80 Recession Index Value Data source: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) via Bloomberg. Data indexed 1986 = 100 Last data point 7/31/22

  10. Slide 10: NFIB Small Business Capital Expenditure Plans

    Index Value 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 5 6/1/1999 12/1/1999 6/1/2000 12/1/2000 6/1/2001 12/1/2001 6/1/2002 12/1/2002 6/1/2003 12/1/2003 6/1/2004 12/1/2004 via Bloomberg. 6/1/2005 12/1/2005 6/1/2006 12/1/2006 6/1/2007 12/1/2007 6/1/2008 12/1/2008 6/1/2009 Recession 12/1/2009 6/1/2010 12/1/2010 6/1/201

  11. Slide 11: ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing Indices

    Index Value 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 1/1/2000 7/1/2000 1/1/2001 7/1/2001 1/1/2002 7/1/2002 1/1/2003 7/1/2003 1/1/2004 7/1/2004 via Bloomberg. 1/1/2005 7/1/2005 1/1/2006 7/1/2006 Recession 1/1/2007 7/1/2007 1/1/2008 7/1/2008 Data source: Institute for Supply Management 1/1/2009 7/1/2009 ISM Man

  12. Slide 12: Loan Delinquency by Loan Type 1Q 2003 to 2Q 2022

    % of loan balance 90 days + delinquent by loan type 1Q 2003 to 2Q 2022 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 % Delinquent 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 Recession Mortgage HELOC Auto CC Student Loan Data source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

  13. Slide 13: Other Topics

    Other Topics • Currencies: the US $ is up ~ 20% vs. a basket of currencies. Japan intervened in currency market in late Sep. • Europe: in the middle of a brutal energy crisis. UK’s plan to deal with it drove their currency down and sovereign interest rates way up in days. The potential for major pro

  14. Slide 14: Our Checklist: Current State and Future Outlook

    What we observe as the Our Checklist: Current State: Future Outlook: 1. Inflation US CPI 8.3% y/y Likely to decline near term, but how much? 2. Federal Reserve and Treasury Fed tightening, Treasury Fed test ahead loose No change at Treasury 3. Consumer spending Selective Impact of Inflation? 4. Busi

  15. Slide 15: How are we responding?

    How are we responding? • Raised cash levels in the last twelve months with an eye to taking advantage of investment opportunities we anticipate will occur. • Continue to hold companies we like long term. • Significant investments in energy, which should do well in inflationary environment and should

  16. Slide 16: Questions and Responses

    Questions and Responses Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management The comments made during this webcast are opinions and are not intended to be investment advice or a forecast of future events.

  17. Slide 17: Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc.

    Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management

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