Moody's Corporation · NYSE:MCO
Moody's — Coronavirus in Focus Live Webinar Series (April 2020)
20 slides from Moody's's conference presentation, April 2020
Slide 1: IFRS 9 Challenges in View of COVID-19: Impact on Provisions and Associated Regulatory Guidance
IFRS 9 Challenges in View of COVID-19: Impact on Provisions and Associated Regulatory Guidance April 2020
Slide 2: Speakers
Speakers » Yashan Wang - Senior Director, Moody’s Analytics » Nadja Roos - Director, Moody’s Analytics » Farah Juma - Group IFRS 9 Impairment Lead, MeDirect Strategy » Antonios Kastanas - Director, Moody’s Analytics » Metin Epozdemir - Director, Moody’s Analytics IFRS 9 Challenges in View of COVID-1
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda 1. COVID-19 Impact Benchmark Study 2. Implications and Challenges of the Regulatory Guidance 3. Forecasting Future Period Provisions to Identify Vulnerabilities in Portfolio Segments IFRS 9 Challenges in View of COVID-19 3
Slide 4: COVID-19 Impact on IFRS 9 Provisions
COVID-19 Impact on IFRS 9 Provisions* » COVID-19 is having an unprecedented impact since the Great Depression on global public health, healthcare systems, and economy** » Since the outbreak, the credit risk faced by lending institutions around the world has increased significantly, as evidenced in t
Slide 5: Baseline and Alternative Scenarios
Baseline and Alternative Scenarios Moody’s Analytics March Forecasts (Released on 3 April, 2020) Key Aspects S1 (Upside*) Baseline S3 (Downside**) Quarantine Measure End Mid Q2 2020 End of Q2 2020 Mid Q3 2020 Global Recession Mild Moderate Severe Global GDP Growth -0.9% and 2.4% -2.4% and 4.4% -5.2%
Slide 6: Modeling Framework
Modeling Framework » Forecasts of GDP growth, unemployment rate, equity price Macroeconomic Scenario Forecasts index, oil price, etc. » 3 scenarios: baseline, upside (S1), and downside (S3) » 40% baseline, 30% upside (S1), 30% downside (S3) Scenario Probability Weights GCorrTM Macro to Calculate Con
Slide 7: Benchmarking Methodology
Benchmarking Methodology » In this benchmarking study, we calculate Expected Credit Losses (ECLs) of the same portfolios on two reporting dates: » 31 Dec, 2019 ECLs based on Moody’s Analytics December 2019 economic forecasts » 31 Mar, 2020 ECLs based on Moody’s Analytics March 2020 economic forecast
Slide 8: C&I Benchmark Portfolios
C&I Benchmark Portfolios Outstanding Balance (% of balance) Year to Maturity Main Industries Portfolio (years) (% of balance) Investment Grade High Yield Bank and Savings & Loans (43%) Business Services (15%) Europe 78% 22% 2.75 Consumer Products Retail/Wholesale (5%) Agriculture (4%) Bank and Savin
Slide 9: Expected Credit Losses from 2019Q4 to 2020Q1
Expected Credit Losses from 2019Q4 to 2020Q1 ECL % Change from 31 Dec, 2019 to 31 Mar, 2020 Portfolio Baseline S1 S3 Scenario Weighted Europe 46% 56% -7% 20% Middle East 13% 25% -1% 9% North America 32% 80% -8% 19% » 31 Mar, 2020 results under Baseline and S1 are higher than Changes in ECL Term Stru
Slide 10: ECL Changes from 2019Q4 to 2020Q1
ECL Changes from 2019Q4 to 2020Q1 Changes in ECL Term Structures – Middle East Changes in ECL Term Structures – North America 500% 500% 300% 300% 100% 100% -100% -100% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Baseline S1 S3 Baseline S1 S3 » ECL term structures for Middle East and North Americ
Slide 11: COVID-19's Impact on Different Countries
COVID-19’s Impact on Different Countries ECL % Change from 31 Dec, 2019 to 31 Mar, 2020 Europe Baseline S1 S3 Scenario Weighted Spain 375% 482% 72% 194% Italy 320% 382% 75% 174% France 289% 289% 75% 159% Germany 189% 209% 67% 123% United Kingdom 114% 232% 34% 84% ECL % Change 31 Dec, 2019 to 31 Mar,
Slide 12: Most Affected Country – Spain
Most Affected Country – Spain Moody’s Analytics Forecasts of Unemployment Rate 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Baseline (Dec 2019) Baseline (Mar 2020) S1 (Mar 2020) S3 (Mar 2020) IFRS 9 Challenges in View of COVID-19 12
Slide 13: Most Affected Country – Spain
Most Affected Country – Spain Moody’s Analytics Forecasts of Equity Index 10800 9800 8800 7800 6800 5800 4800 3800 2800 1800 800 Baseline (Dec 2019) Baseline (Mar 2020) S1 (Mar 2020) S3 (Mar 2020) IFRS 9 Challenges in View of COVID-19 13
Slide 14: Incorporating More Current Market Condition
Incorporating More Current Market Condition » One of the modeling components in generating the Mar 2020 results so far – the unconditional PDs from Moody’s rating to PIT PD converter – uses market information up to Dec 2019 » To incorporate more current market information, we create a new version of
Slide 15: Regulatory Guidance
Regulatory Guidance Additional Regulatory Responses: IFRS 9 – ‘Our expectation is that eligibility for, and use of, the UK government’s policy on the extension of payment holidays should not automatically, BoE/PRA other things being equal, result in the loans involved being moved into Stage 2 or Sta
Slide 16: Common Questions
Common Questions Incorporating Regulatory Guidance in IFRS 9 models PD » Incorporating / updating market data for PiT PD conversion » Flexibility of models and incorporating management overlays » Increased borrower, industry analysis – individual assessment G » Expectations around short-term and lon
Slide 17: Managing Financial Resources in a Crisis
Managing Financial Resources in a Crisis Challenges for Financial Resource Management in times of emerging and evolving stress Challenges Needs » COVID-19 resulted in heightened and more Robust forecasting capabilities in business frequent analysis and reporting as usual conditions to meet demands d
Slide 18: Coronavirus in Focus Live
Coronavirus in Focus Live events.moodys.io/coronavirus coronavirus@moodys.com
Slide 19: Coronavirus Live | Webinar Series
Coronavirus Live | Webinar Series Program Schedule events.moodys.io/coronavirus Get weekly updates on the Coronavirus Sign-Up once Live program Live Q&A Engage with the analysts and get your questions answered Presentation Title, Date 19
Slide 20: IFRS 9 Challenges in View of COVID-19
© 2020 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All To the extent permitted by law, MOODY’S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liabilit
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