Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc · NYSE:AHT
Ashford Hospitality Trust — Investor Presentation (February 2013)
31 slides from Ashford Hospitality Trust's investor presentation, Feb 27, 2013
Slide 1: Ashford Hospitality Trust February 2013
JAX& ASHFORD NYY HOSPITALITY TRUST February 2013
Slide 2: Safe Harbor
Safe Harbor 2 In keeping with the SEC’s “Safe Harbor” guidelines, certain statements made during this presentation could be considered forward-looking and subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause results to differ materially from those projected. When we use the words “will likely
Slide 3: Economic & Industry Overview
Economic & Industry Overview 3
Slide 4: Real GDP Growth %
Real GDP Growth % 4 -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 2011 Real GDP Growth: 1.8% Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce: BEA & Historical Statistics of the United States: - Cambridge
Slide 5: Hotel Demand Driven by Economy
Hotel Demand Driven by Economy 5 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Real GDP Growth Hotel Demand Growth R-squared = 0.59 Source: Smith Travel Research & U.S. Dept. of Commerce: BEA
Slide 6: U.S. Demand Will Outpace Supply
U.S. Demand Will Outpace Supply 6 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Yea r- o v e r- Year % G ro wt h Supply Growth Demand Growth PKF Forecast Source: Smith Travel Research & PKF
Slide 7: RevPAR Forecast - PKF
RevPAR Forecast - PKF 7 7.7% 6.1% -2.0% -16.7% 5.4% 8.2% 6.8% 6.2% 8.8% 6.5% 3.5% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F Historical RevPAR Growth Forecasted RevPAR Growth 4-Year RevPAR Growth CAGR: 6.2% Source: Smith Travel Researc
Slide 8: Real Corporate Profits Growth Leads Real RevPAR Growth
Real Corporate Profits Growth Leads Real RevPAR Growth 8 Source: St. Louis FRED, Bloomberg -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% -60.0% -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% RevP A R Growt h C o rp o ra te Pr o fi ts Gr o w th Real Corporate Profits TTM Avg Y-o-Y % Change Real RevPAR
Slide 9: Potential Industry EBITDA Growth Rates (2-year)
Potential Industry EBITDA Growth Rates 9 − With strong potential RevPAR gains, those companies with reasonable flow-throughs could experience significant EBITDA growth − PKF estimates 2-year cumulative EBITDA growth of about 26%* *Based on PKF RevPAR/ADR/Occupancy projections and EBITDA growth resul
Slide 10: Potential Industry EBITDA Growth Rates (4-year)
Potential Industry EBITDA Growth Rates 10 − With strong potential RevPAR gains, those companies with reasonable flow-throughs could experience significant EBITDA growth − PKF estimates 4-year cumulative EBITDA growth of about 48%* CUMULATIVE 4-YEAR EBITDA GROWTH COMPOUNDED 4-YEAR REVPAR GROWTH RATE
Slide 11: Company Highlights
Company Highlights 11
Slide 12: Total Shareholder Return
Total Shareholder Return 47% 31% 124% 137% 30% 47% 85% 101% 17% 1% 60% -17% -43% -26% -12% 29% -50% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 1-Yr 2-Yr 3-Yr 4-Yr 5-Yr 6-Yr 7-Yr 8-Yr 9-yr AHT Peer Avg. Peer average includes: BEE, CHSP, CLDT, DRH, FCH, HST, HT, INN, LHO, PEB, RLJ, SHO Trailing Total Sharehol
Slide 13: Company Snapshots
Company Snapshots 13 Portfolio Statistics* Total Enterprise Value $4.3 B Total Gross Assets $4.9 B Peer Comparison 2nd Largest # of Hotels 123 # of Owned Rooms 25,767 # of Property Managers 5 $ ADR $135.74 $ RevPAR $101.51 RevPAR Growth % 5.1% Financial Statistics* Recent Share Price $12.26 (2/19/13
Slide 14: Portfolio Overview
Portfolio Overview 14 1% 59% 3% 37% Chain Scale* Luxury Upper Upscale Upper Midscale Upscale 31% 3% 5% 53% 4% 3% Brand Family* Hilton Hyatt Starwood Marriott IHG Independent 24% 4% 23% 49% Segmentation Group Contract Leisure Transient Corporate Transient *as a % of 3Q 2012 TTM EBITDA 73% 17% 10% MSA
Slide 15: Low Supply Growth in Ashford Markets
Low Supply Growth in Ashford Markets 15 Source: PKF forecast *Weighted average supply growth based on % of total EBITDA in respective markets, net of average room exits 2013 SUPPLY GROWTH PKF NATIONAL ESTIMATE ASHFORD MARKETS* 0.8% 0.7%
Slide 16: Capital Hilton – Washington D.C.
Capital Hilton – Washington D.C. 16
Slide 17: Crystal Gateway Marriott
Crystal Gateway Marriott ZA ASH YYZ nos
Slide 18: Seattle Marriott Waterfront
Seattle Marriott Waterfront 18
Slide 19: Courtyard Philadelphia Downtown
Courtyard Philadelphia Downtown 19
Slide 20: Hilton Boston Back Bay
Hilton Boston Back Bay 20
Slide 21: Asset Management Outperformance
Asset Management Outperformance 21 39% 8% 49% 41% 50% 52% 51% 37% 53% 104% 63% 66% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD Q3 2012 Peer Avg AHT − Ashford consistently beats peers in hotel EBITDA flow throughs Peers include: BEE, CHSP, DRH, FCH, HST, HT, LHO, PEB, SHO Source: Compan
Slide 22: Attractive Dividend Yield & Coverage
5.0% 4.8% 4.4% 3.9% 3.9% 3.6% 3.5% 2.9% 2.8% 2.1% 1.9% - - - 1.7x 1.7x 1.5x 1.8x 2.3x 3.6x 2.2x 3.2x 2.4x 3.9x 2.4x - 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% CLDT INN HT CHSP RLJ AHT DRH LHO Peer Avg HST PEB BEE FCH SHO A F F O C ove ra g e Divid e n d Yiel d Divi
Slide 23: Compelling Valuation
Compelling Valuation 23 − Ashford is currently trading below the peer average on an EBITDA multiple and price per key basis Source: Company filings, SNL, Street research & First Call (as of 2/19/13) $455 $406 $376 $285 $285 $256 $254 $253 $243 $168 $162 $156 $146 $138 0.0x 2.0x 4.0x 6.0x 8.0x 10.0x
Slide 24: Most Highly-Aligned Management
Most Highly-Aligned Management 24 21% 15% 6% 5% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% AHT HT INN CLDT FCH RLJ HST CHSP SHO DRH BEE LHO PEB Insider ownership % Source: Company Filings
Slide 25: Low Risk on Balance Sheet
Low Risk on Balance Sheet 25 Strong liquidity • Excess cash flow • Undrawn $165m credit facility • $146m of unrestricted cash at end of Q3 2012 Highest leveraged loans have longest time to maturity Upcoming maturities have solid debt yields • TTM September 2012 weighted average debt yields on maturi
Slide 26: Highland Hospitality Update
Highland Hospitality Update 26
Slide 27: Highland EBITDA Flows
Highland EBITDA Flows 27 32.7% 83.0% 95.9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% One Year Pre-Takeover One Year Post-Takeover TTM Q3 2012
Slide 28: Highland NOI Exceeds Underwriting
Highland NOI Exceeds Underwriting 28 $79 $82 $86 $88 $91 $93 $95 $93 $70 $75 $80 $85 $90 $95 $100 Mar 2011 TTM Jun 2011 TTM Sep 2011 TTM Dec 2011 TTM Mar 2012 TTM Jun 2012 TTM Sep 2012 TTM U/W for Sep 2012 NO I $ ( in m il li o n s)
Slide 29: The Melrose – Washington D.C.
The Melrose – Washington D.C. 29 BEFORE AFTER
Slide 30: The Churchill – Washington D.C.
The Churchill – Washington D.C. 30 BEFORE AFTER
Slide 31: Ashford Hospitality Trust
JAX& ASHFORD NYY HOSPITALITY TRUST February 2013
Ashford Hospitality Trust — Investor Presentation (February 2013) on 6ix