Asml Holding Nv · EURONEXT:ASML
Asml Holding Nv — Investor Day (September 2005)
15 slides from Asml Holding Nv's investor day presentation, Sep 19, 2005
Slide 1: ASML's Growing Lithography Market Potential
ASML’s Growing Lithography Market Potential Boudewijn Sluijk Director of Corporate Marketing Analyst Day, 19 September 2005
Slide 2: Safe Harbor
Safe Harbor “Safe Harbor” Statement under the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: the matters discussed in this document may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties including, but not limited to: economic conditions, product demand and semico
Slide 3: Long term growth contributors
3 Long term growth contributors Trend Effect on ASML z Semiconductor consumption z assume unit growth 8-10% per year Capacity buys z Moore’s law continuation z leading to technology upgrades Technology buys z Litho Average Selling Price z resultant from Moore’s law Higher ASP Let’s quantify these
Slide 4: Fab based model - for each fab, each year
Fab based model - for each fab, each year: Assumptions Calculations Installed Req’d. Production base base(t+1) (t) • Product • Volume (t) Req’d. Next year Litho tool set Roadmaps (t) • Customer • litho Litho • technology Purchases • productivity (#, $)
Slide 5: Long term growth in semiconductors
Long term growth in semiconductors for both advanced digital and analog, discrete 40 5.0 3mma # Analog, Discrete 4.5 3mma Unit sales Memory, Micro, Logic 35 3mma # Memory, Micro,Logic 3mma Unit sales Analog Discrete 4.0 30 3.5 25 3.0 20 2.5 2.0 15 Assume long term 1.5 10 semiconductor unit growth 1.
Slide 6: Customer roadmaps
Customer roadmaps 100 Resolution (nm) DRAM Flash Logic, Foundry DRAM (trend) Flash (trend) Logic, Foundry (trend) 10 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Model inputs 2013 Source: ASML
Slide 7: Litho technology application
Litho technology application Node 90 65 45 32 22 ArF-i Critical litho KrF ArF ArF-i EUV EUV EUV Memory Critical Metallization litho KrF KrF ArF ArF-i ArF-i Mid-critical litho KrF KrF KrF ArF ArF-i Implant litho i-Line KrF KrF KrF ArF Node 90 65 45 32 22 ArF-i ArF-i Logic, Foundry Critical litho ArF
Slide 8: WW litho sales - technology split
WW litho sales - technology split 70% 60% Technology Unit Share (%) 50% 40% i-Line sales KrF sales ArF sales 30% EUV sales 20% ArF is of growing importance 10% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Dataquest (’00-’04), ASML fab based model (’05-’10)
Slide 9: Growing importance of immersion
Growing importance of immersion 100% 90% Fraction of WW ArF Unit Sales 80% 70% 60% Dry 50% Wet 40% 30% 20% Immersion will become 10% the dominant ArF 0% technology 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: ASML Fab based Model
Slide 10: Litho ASP continues to rise
Litho ASP continues to rise 100.0 Litho ASP Trend Litho ASP Projected ASP 10.0 Litho ASP (M$) 1.0 Litho ASP continues to rise at 10-15% per year 0.1 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Source: Dataquest (’81-’04), ASML fab based model (’05-’10)
Slide 11: But higher productivity adds value
But higher productivity adds value 3500 Production (Wafers per Day per system) 3000 2500 2000 1500 Higher productivity 1000 will (partially) compensate for 500 higher ASP 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Model inputs Source: ASML
Slide 12: Affordability
Affordability 100% Relative litho cost per function 10% Litho cost per function is 65% of previous generation 1% 350 250 180 130 90 65 45 32 22 Resolution node (nm) Source: ASML Fab based Model
Slide 13: Growth projection lithography sales
Growth projection lithography sales 8,000 Average WW litho sales ASML’s 7,000 L ’s y opportunity M S n it 6,000 window A rtu WW Litho Sales (M€) ppo dow ASML’s potential o n 5,000 wi Growing to 70% Stable at 50% 4,000 Average WW litho Status Growingquo to 70% 3,000 Stable at 50% 2,000 Natural growth
Slide 14: Conclusion
Conclusion Analysis of fab based model confirms a growth potential towards 4-5 B€ range, under following assumptions z 8% to 10% IC unit growth z continuing Tool ASP growth, delivering lower cost per function per historical trend z Flawless execution of ASML business model
Slide 15: Commitment
Commitment