Smead International Value Fund Class A Shares · NASDAQ:SVXAX
Smead International Value Fund Class A Shares — Smead Capital Management — Investor Presentation (March 2026)
56 slides from Smead International Value Fund Class A Shares's investor presentation, March 2026
Slide 1: Manias in American CapEx Cycles
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY SMEAD INVESTOR OASIS // SMEAD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT Manias in American CapEx Cycles P re s e n t e d by : C o l e S m e a d , C FA CEO & Portfolio Manager Opinions expressed are those of Smead Capital Management, are subject to change, are not guaranteed, and should
Slide 2: Agenda
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Agenda Railway Mania of the 1880s The Telecom Bubble Drill Baby Drill of the 2010s Today’s AI Hyper-Scaling Mania Investment Excitement Ratio The Returns that Follow
Slide 3: Railway Mania of the 1880s: Emerging Technology
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Railway Mania of the 1880s EMERGING TECHNOLOGY • Steel rails (more durable) • Janney-style automatic coupler (easier connection) • Westinghouse air brake • Signal systems via telegraph Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Evolution of Couple
Slide 4: Railway Mania of the 1880s: Real Economic Applications
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Railway Mania of the 1880s REAL ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS • Time travel from east to west took six months or more • 12-14 miles per day on the Oregon Trail • Six months or more via South America • Six months or more via the Panama Isthmus • When the Transcontinental R
Slide 5: Railway Mania of the 1880s: Market Concentration in Railroads
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Railway Mania of the 1880s Approximate Railroad Share of US Market Cap MARKET CONCENTRATION Year (%) IN RAILROADS 1850 85 1860 80 1870 70 1880 65 1890 55 1900 45 1910 35 1920 25 1930 20 1940 15 1950 10 1960 5 1970 4 1980 3 1990 2 2000 2 2010 2 2020 1 Past performa
Slide 6: Railway Mania of the 1880s: Ramp of Fundraising
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Railway Mania of the 1880s RAMP OF FUNDRAISING • III. Why Did Railroads Rely So Heavily on Debt Finance? Theoretical Considerations Why did creditors agree to lend so much money to railroads? Weren’t creditors aware that railroads were risky? Actually, railroads w
Slide 7: Railway Mania of the 1880s: Things to Watch For
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Railway Mania of the 1880s THINGS TO WATCH FOR IN THE ECONOMY Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Museum of the American Railroad. 7
Slide 8: Railway Mania of the 1880s: Competition
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Railway Mania of the 1880s COMPETITION Atchison, Topeka and Seattle, Lake Shore and Northern Pacific Railway Santa Fe Railway Eastern Railway (Bankrupt 1873 and1893) (Bankrupt 1893) (Bankrupt 1893) Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: BNSF.c
Slide 9: Railway Mania of the 1880s: Competition
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Railway Mania of the 1880s COMPETITION Lake Erie and Philadelphia and Norfolk & Richmond & Ohio Southern Erie Railroad Western Railroad Reading Railroad Western Railway Danville Railroad Railroad - Bankrupt 1893 - Bankrupt 1893 – Bankrupt 1893 - Bankrupt 1896 - Ba
Slide 10: Railway Mania of the 1880s: Competition
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Railway Mania of the 1880s COMPETITION Union Pacific Railway Missouri Pacific Railway - Bankrupt 1893 - Bankrupt 1875 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: BNSF.com. 10
Slide 11: Railway Mania of the 1880s: Competition
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Railway Mania of the 1880s COMPETITION Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: https://case.edu/ech/articles/c/csx-corp. 11
Slide 12: Railway Mania of the 1880s: Competition
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Railway Mania of the 1880s COMPETITION Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: https://www.cn.ca/en/about-cn/history/. 12
Slide 13: Railway Mania of the 1880s: Competition
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Railway Mania of the 1880s COMPETITION Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: https://www.trains.com/trn/railroads/history/canadian-pacific-merger-family-tree/. 13
Slide 14: Railway Mania of the 1880s: Size of Capital Expenditures
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Railway Mania of the 1880s SIZE OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES Infrastructure CapEx as % of US GDP, By Era 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% CapEx as % of GDP 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Railroads (1880s) Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: paulkedrosky.com, Jens
Slide 15: Agenda
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Agenda Railway Mania of the 1880s The Telecom Bubble Drill Baby Drill of the 2010s Today’s AI Hyper-Scaling Mania Investment Excitement Ratio The Returns that Follow
Slide 16: The Telecom Bubble: Emerging Technology
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY The Telecom Bubble EMERGING TECHNOLOGY 16 Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Slide 17: The Telecom Bubble: Real Economic Application
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY The Telecom Bubble REAL ECONOMIC APPLICATION Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. 17
Slide 18: The Telecom Bubble: Investor Excitement
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY The Telecom Bubble INVESTOR EXCITEMENT Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Bloomberg, World Bank, Deutsche Bank. 18
Slide 19: The Telecom Bubble: Ramp of Fundraising (Equity/Debt)
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY The Telecom Bubble RAMP OF FUNDRAISING (EQUITY/DEBT) Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: https://blog.boxcars.ai/p/making-it-up-in-volume-how-the-a. 19
Slide 20: The Telecom Bubble: Competition
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY The Telecom Bubble COMPETITION Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Paul Starr, The American Prospect, September 8, 2002. 20 https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2020/08/who-lost-lucent-the-decline-of-americas-telecom-equipment-industry/.
Slide 21: The Telecom Bubble: Leverage
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY The Telecom Bubble LEVERAGE Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: CIBC World Markets, Telegeography, Wall Street Journal. 21
Slide 22: The Telecom Bubble: Size of Capital Expenditures
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY The Telecom Bubble SIZE OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES US GDP was $10.25 trillion in 2000. Telecom spending as a percentage of GDP was 1.18% Infrastructure CapEx as % of US GDP, By Era 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.0% CapEx as % of GDP 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.18% 1.0% 0.0% Railroads (1880s)
Slide 23: Agenda
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Agenda Railway Mania of the 1880s The Telecom Bubble Drill Baby Drill of the 2010s Today’s AI Hyper-Scaling Mania Investment Excitement Ratio The Returns that Follow
Slide 24: Drill Baby Drill of the 2010s: Emerging Technology
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Drill Baby Drill of the 2010s EMERGING TECHNOLOGY Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Energies Media. 24
Slide 25: Drill Baby Drill of the 2010s: Real Economic Application
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Drill Baby Drill of the 2010s REAL ECONOMIC APPLICATION Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: EIA. 25
Slide 26: Drill Baby Drill of the 2010s: Investor Excitement
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Drill Baby Drill of the 2010s INVESTOR EXCITEMENT 26 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Gregory Zuckerman, The Economist.
Slide 27: Drill Baby Drill of the 2010s: Ramp of Fundraising
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Drill Baby Drill of the 2010s RAMP OF FUNDRAISING (EQUITY/DEBT) Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Dealogic, Wall Street Journal. 27
Slide 28: Drill Baby Drill of the 2010s: Competition
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Drill Baby Drill of the 2010s COMPETITION Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Bloomberg. 28
Slide 29: Drill Baby Drill of the 2010s: Leverage
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Drill Baby Drill of the 2010s LEVERAGE Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Bloomberg. 29
Slide 30: Drill Baby Drill of the 2010s: Leverage
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Drill Baby Drill of the 2010s LEVERAGE 7.0% Infrastructure CapEx as % of US GDP, By Era 6.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.18% 0.92% 1.0% 0.0% Railroads (1880s) Telecom CapEx (2000) US Shale (2010s) Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Bloomber
Slide 31: Agenda
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Agenda Railway Mania of the 1880s The Telecom Bubble Drill Baby Drill of the 2010s Today’s AI Hyper-Scaling Mania Investment Excitement Ratio The Returns that Follow
Slide 32: Today's AI Hyper-Scaling Mania: Emerging Technology
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Today’s AI Hyper-Scaling Mania EMERGING TECHNOLOGY Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Reuters, SimilarWeb, SensorTower, Wells Fargo Securities 32
Slide 33: Today's AI Hyper-Scaling Mania: Real Economic Application
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Today’s AI Hyper-Scaling Mania REAL ECONOMIC APPLICATION Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 33
Slide 34: Today's AI Hyper-Scaling Mania: Productivity Gains
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Today’s AI Hyper-Scaling Mania PRODUCTIVITY GAINS Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Apollo Global Management. 34
Slide 35: Today's AI Hyper-Scaling Mania: Investor Excitement
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Today’s AI Hyper-Scaling Mania INVESTOR EXCITEMENT Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Carta. 35
Slide 36: Today's AI Hyper-Scaling Mania: Ramp of Fundraising
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Today’s AI Hyper-Scaling Mania RAMP OF FUNDRAISING Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: dealroom.co. 36
Slide 37: Today's AI Hyper-Scaling Mania: Equity/Debt Fundraising, AI Market Concentration
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Today’s AI Hyper-Scaling Mania RAMP OF FUNDRAISING (EQUITY/DEBT) AI S&P 500 Market Concentration 26% 74% AI Market Weight Remaining Stock Market Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Bloomberg. “AI Market Weight” defined as S&P 500 index weig
Slide 38: Today's AI Hyper-Scaling Mania: Competition
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Today’s AI Hyper-Scaling Mania COMPETITION Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Bloomberg. 38
Slide 39: Today's AI Hyper-Scaling Mania: Competition
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Today’s AI Hyper-Scaling Mania COMPETITION Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Bloomberg. 39
Slide 40: Today's AI Hyper-Scaling Mania: Competition
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Today’s AI Hyper-Scaling Mania COMPETITION Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Bloomberg. 40
Slide 41: Today's AI Hyper-Scaling Mania: Size of Capital Expenditures
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Today’s AI Hyper-Scaling Mania SIZE OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Wall Street Journal. 41
Slide 42: Today's AI Hyper-Scaling Mania: Size of Capital Expenditures
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Today’s AI Hyper-Scaling Mania SIZE OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: paulkedrosky.com, Jens Nordvig. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 42
Slide 43: Today's AI Hyper-Scaling Mania: Size of Capital Expenditures
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Today’s AI Hyper-Scaling Mania SIZE OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: GQG Partners LLC, Bloomberg. 43
Slide 44: Agenda
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Agenda Railway Mania of the 1880s The Telecom Bubble Drill Baby Drill of the 2010s Today’s AI Hyper-Scaling Mania Investment Excitement Ratio The Returns that Follow
Slide 45: Buffett Indicator
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Today’s AI Hyper-Scaling Mania BUFFETT INDICATOR 45 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Slide 46: Today's AI Hyper-Scaling Mania: Ramp of Fundraising (Equity/Debt)
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Today’s AI Hyper-Scaling Mania RAMP OF FUNDRAISING (EQUITY/DEBT) Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Bloomberg. “AI Market Weight” defined as S&P 500 index weights of NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META as of 8/21/2025. 46
Slide 47: Today's AI Hyper-Scaling Mania: Size of Capital Expenditures
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Today’s AI Hyper-Scaling Mania SIZE OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: paulkedrosky.com, Jens Nordvig. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 47
Slide 48: Investment Excitement Ratio
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Investment Excitement Ratio Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 9/30/2025. 48
Slide 49: Investment Excitement Ratio
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Investment Excitement Ratio Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 9/30/2025. 49
Slide 50: Agenda
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Agenda Railway Mania of the 1880s The Telecom Bubble Drill Baby Drill of the 2010s Today’s AI Hyper-Scaling Mania Investment Excitement Ratio The Returns that Follow
Slide 51: The Returns that Follow: In the 19th Century, Railroads Were the Market
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY The Returns that Follow IN THE 19TH CENTURY, RAILROADS WERE THE MARKET Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Birinyi Associates 51
Slide 52: The Returns that Follow: In the 19th Century, Railroads Were the Market
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY The Returns that Follow IN THE 19TH CENTURY, RAILROADS WERE THE MARKET Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Birinyi Associates 52
Slide 53: The Returns that Follow: Telecom Bubble Aftermath
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY The Returns that Follow TELECOM BUBBLE AFTERMATH Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Bloomberg. 53
Slide 54: The Returns that Follow: Shale Bubble Aftermath
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY The Returns that Follow SHALE BUBBLE AFTERMATH Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Bloomberg. 54
Slide 55: Important Information
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY IMPORTANT INFORMATION Information provided does not constitute investment advice and no investment decisions should be made based on any information provided. Information reflects the views of Smead Capital Management as of a particular time. Such views are subjec
Slide 56: Questions & Answers
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY Questions & Answers Information provided does not constitute investment advice and no investment decisions should be made based on any information provided. Information reflects the views of Smead Capital Management as of a particular time. Such views are subject
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