Cairn Homes Plc · LSE:CRN
Cairn Homes — H1 2017 Earnings Presentation
34 slides from Cairn Homes's earnings presentation, Sep 5, 2017
Slide 1: Building on Success: 2017 Interim Results Presentation
Designed for Living. Built for Life. BUILDING ON SUCCESS CAIRN HOMES plc 2017 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 05 SEPTEMBER 2017 WWW.CAIRNHOMES.COM 1 © CAIRN HOMES PLC 2017. WWW.CAIRNHOMES.COM
Slide 2: Interim Results presenters
INTERIM RESULTS Michael Stanley Tim Kenny Declan Murray Chief Executive Chief Financial Investor Relations & Co-Founder Officer 2 © CAIRN HOMES PLC 2017. WWW.CAIRNHOMES.COM
Slide 3: Disclaimer
DISCLAIMER This presentation document (hereinafter This document has been prepared in omissions or inaccuracies in any of the forward-looking statements. No “this document”) has been prepared by good faith, but the information contained information or opinions in this representation or warranty is m
Slide 4: Considerable Progress
1. Highlights 2. Land Bank 3. Operations CONSIDERABLE 4. Outlook PROGRESS 5. Appendix Hanover Quay 4 © CAIRN HOMES PLC 2017. WWW.CAIRNHOMES.COM
Slide 5: Highlights
Highlights FINANCIAL OPERATIONAL 9 active/ 7 selling Enhancing Joint + 157% + 191% 18.7% sites value venture Revenues increased by Gross profit up €5.1 million Continued progression in Active on nine developments Core competency in value Joint Venture €25.2 million to €41.2 from €2.6 million to €7.7
Slide 6: Income Statement
Income Statement INCOME STATEMENT FOR 6 MONTH PERIOD ENDED 30 JUNE 2017 (UNAUDITED) COMMENTARY For six month period ended 30 June 2017 For six month period ended 30 June 2016 ▪ Revenue of €41.2m predominantly from the sale of 94 houses (€26.3m) and site Before Exceptional Total Before Exceptional To
Slide 7: Balance Sheet
Balance Sheet BALANCE SHEET AS AT 30 JUNE 2017 COMMENTARY Unaudited Audited 30 June 2017 31 December 2016 €’000 €’000 ▪ Inventories represents all owned sites, work in progress spend to date and PP&E and intangibles 2,021 1,379 development land collateral (including a Restricted cash 27,000 27,000 t
Slide 8: Cash Flow Statement
Cash Flow Statement CASH FLOW STATEMENT FOR 6 MONTH PERIOD ENDED 30 JUNE 2017 (UNAUDITED) COMMENTARY 6 months ended 6 months ended 30 June 2017 30 June 2016 €’000 €’000 ▪ Increase in inventories represents 2017 acquisitions plus spend on active EBITDA 2,833 1,684 developments, less sales releases an
Slide 9: Financial Highlights: Monthly and Cumulative Forward Sales
Financial Highlights 2016 & 2017 MONTHLY & CUMULATIVE FORWARD SALES COMMENTARY ▪ Strong sales trajectory with 468 units Monthly Sales Cumulative Sales agreed for sale in the year to date, (# units) (# units) reflecting an average weekly sales run rate of 13 units. 90 500 ▪ As of today, in excess of
Slide 10: Considerable Progress to Achieve Long-Term Objectives
Financial Highlights CONSIDERABLE PROGRESS TO ACHIEVE LONG-TERM OBJECTIVES Sales completions and forward sales by unit numbers and revenue Future revenue and ASP outlook 474 units 500 Revenue €’s ASP (Ex. VAT) € 450 281+ units 400 350 Turnover Range: Sales (# units) 500,000,000 420,000 300 €450m - €
Slide 11: Enhancing Value in Our Land Bank
1. Highlights 2. Land Bank ENHANCING 3. Operations VALUE IN OUR 4. Outlook LAND BANK 5. Appendix Cherrywood 11 © CAIRN HOMES PLC 2017. WWW.CAIRNHOMES.COM
Slide 12: The Brands of our Current Developments
The Brands of our Current Developments 12 © CAIRN HOMES PLC 2017. WWW.CAIRNHOMES.COM
Slide 13: Core Land Bank Analysis
Core Land Bank Analysis INVESTMENT IN OUR CORE LAND BANK – CAPITAL ALLOCATIONS TIMELINE AND GEOGRAPHICAL SPLIT Core land bank acquisition dates Capital allocation by geographical location €’m €816m €900 €800 €700 19.1% €600 REST OF DUBLIN €500 €400 49.5% €300 €200 DUBLIN WITHIN M50 €100 €0 H1 2015 H
Slide 14: Core Land Bank Composition
Core Land Bank Composition COMPOSITION OF 12,700 UNITS UNIT TYPE PLANNING STATUS BUYER PROFILE Buyer Profile 19% 32% 36% 54% 17% a28% 69% 31% 4% 10% Houses Full Planning Permission FTB (from €250k) Apartments SDZ Effective FPP Trade Up / Mover (up to €600k) Zoned Residential Premium (from €600k) Sub
Slide 15: Core Land Bank Analysis - Housing
Core Land Bank Analysis - Housing WELL LOCATED HOUSING SITES WITH EXCELLENT PUBLIC TRANSPORT AND INFRASTRUCTURE LINKS Active Units SCALE 10 km 1. Parkside, Malahide Road 433 2. Churchfields, Ashbourne, Co. Meath 397 3. Elsmore, Naas, Co. Kildare 415 4. Shackleton Park, Lucan 1,097 5. Glenheron, Grey
Slide 16: Core Land Bank Analysis – Apartments
Core Land Bank Analysis – Apartments PRIME APARTMENT SITES IN AND NEAR DUBLIN CITY CENTRE 6 Active Units SCALE 1 km 1. Marianella, Rathgar, Dublin 6W 231 2. Hanover Quay, Dublin 2 122 11 Future 2 3. Montrose, Dublin 4 10 4. Donnybrook, Dublin 4 5. Barrington Tower, Carrickmines, Dublin 18 6. Griffit
Slide 17: People, Process, Agility, Discipline
1. Highlights 2. Land Bank 3. Operations PEOPLE, PROCESS, 4. Outlook AGILITY, DISCIPLINE 5. Appendix 1,200 Employees & Subcontractors 17 © CAIRN HOMES PLC 2017. WWW.CAIRNHOMES.COM
Slide 18: The Steps we Take to Ensure our Future Success
The Steps we Take to Ensure our Future Success 450m € 2019 € 26m 2016 1. LAND 2. PEOPLE 3. PLANNING & DESIGN ▪ Land cost to NDV – 21% ▪ Average site size ▪ High calibre, talented ▪ Focus on developing ▪ 96% of land bank has ▪ Understanding our 370 units team assembled talent and building no planning
Slide 19: Selling Sites
Selling Sites PARKSIDE, MALAHIDE ROAD 433 UNITS PARKSIDE NAMA JV 71 UNITS UPDATE: Phase 1 (166 units) sold out. Phase 2 UPDATE: Construction commenced in February 2017. Nearly sold out and construction (141 units) nearing completion with sales closings to commence in October 2017. and closings progr
Slide 20: Selling Sites
Selling Sites CHURCHFIELDS, ASHBOURNE (GDA) 397 UNITS MARIANELLA, RATHGAR 231 UNITS UPDATE: Phase 1 construction nearing completion. UPDATE: Strong sales (in excess of 110 units) with Completions and sales continuing at a strong pace with completions imminent. Planning permission for final 21 Phase
Slide 21: Selling Sites
Selling Sites SHACKLETON PARK, LUCAN 1,097 UNITS GLENHERON, GREYSTONES (GDA) 490 UNITS UPDATE: Construction of 199 houses and 68 apartments UPDATE: Construction of Phase 1 progressing well and in Phase 1 progressing well. Successful off-plan sales successful off-plan sales launch of a number of unit
Slide 22: Sites Under Construction
Sites Under Construction ELSMORE, NAAS (GDA) 415 UNITS HANOVER QUAY, DUBLIN 2 122 UNITS UPDATE: Construction progressing well with new UPDATE: Project progressing well with construction at fourth floor link road and site preliminary works advancing. level (eight floors in total). Expected sales laun
Slide 23: Future Sites
Future Sites MONTROSE, DUBLIN 4 CHERRYWOOD, SOUTH CO. DUBLIN UPDATE: Detailed pre-planning and design phase underway in order to UPDATE: Infrastructure works and completion of public parks progressing. deliver an optimum scheme at this prime and unique site. Fast-track SDZ planning application to be
Slide 24: Future Sites
Future Sites DONNYBROOK, DUBLIN 4 CLONBURRIS, DUBLIN 22 Cairn UPDATE: Ready to go apartment development with full planning UPDATE: Draft plan for enlarged, 280 hectare (Cairn - 72 hectares) SDZ permission. Expected to be our next site commencement. to be published by South Dublin County Council in l
Slide 25: Future Sites
Future Sites GRIFFITH AVENUE, DUBLIN 9 Cairn UPDATE: In detailed pre-planning and design with a planning application to be submitted in Q4 2017. 25 © CAIRN HOMES PLC 2017. WWW.CAIRNHOMES.COM
Slide 26: Driving Shareholder Value
1. Highlights 2. Land Bank DRIVING 3. Operations SHAREHOLDER 4. Outlook VALUE 5. Appendix Churchfields Marianella 26 © CAIRN HOMES PLC 2017. WWW.CAIRNHOMES.COM
Slide 27: Outlook
Strengthening Supply / demand economic imbalance growing fundamentals OUTLOOK Clearly defined Exceptional land bank strategy Talented team in place Business scaling on track Strong and growing Overall, the Group looks forward forward sales pipeline to further progress throughout the remainder of 201
Slide 28: Every Detail
1. Highlights 2. Land Bank 3. Operations EVERY 4. Outlook DETAIL 5. Appendix Marianella 28 © CAIRN HOMES PLC 2017. WWW.CAIRNHOMES.COM
Slide 29: Key Drivers Boosting Affordability
Key Drivers Boosting Affordability WAGE INFLATION OUTSTRIPPING CONSUMER PRICE INDEX STRENGTHENING IRISH LABOUR MARKET 3.0% (‘000) Peak 15.1% 2200 +212,300 16.00% 2.5% 14.00% 2100 2.0% 12.00% 1.5% 2000 10.00% 1.0% 1900 8.00% 6.00% 0.5% 1800 4.00% 0.0% 1700 2.00% -0.5% 1600 0.00% -1.0% 2013 2014 2015
Slide 30: National Residential Price Recovery vs Rental Price Recovery
National Residential Price Recovery vs Rental Price Recovery RENTS 15% ABOVE PEAK, HOUSE PRICES STILL 28% BELOW PEAK COMMENTARY Av. House Price National Rental €’k Index • Dublin average house price 500,000 140 €326,249 as at June 2017, 28% + 15% below €453,638 peak in February 450,000 2007. 120 400
Slide 31: Renting v's Owning
Renting v’s Owning AFFORDABILITY IN REAL TERMS – NOW 32.5% DEARER TO RENT A STARTER HOME THEN OWN ASSUMPTIONS AND FINANCE 2014 2017 • 2014: Couple, both working, earning Salary €80,000 €84,147 €40,000 each. • First time buyers, purchased a three Annual After-Tax Income €60,138 €64,454 bedroom house
Slide 32: Mortgage Market Trends
Mortgage Market Trends MORTGAGE MARKET TRENDS ARE SUPPORTING OUR PURCHASERS COMMENTARY Mortgage Drawdowns – Value of Loans Mortgage Approvals – Value of Loans ▪ The mortgage market continues its Value of Drawdowns €’m No. Loans Value of Approvals €’m No. Loans strong growth trend in terms of both 90
Slide 33: Supply Still Lagging Demand
Supply Still Lagging Demand GOVERNMENT STATISTICS INDICATE UNDER-SUPPLY OF 73,078 UNITS SINCE THE START OF 2012 COMMENTARY Dublin Completions Rest of Ireland Completions ▪ The sustained slowdown in the provision of supply began in earnest in 2009, bottoming out in 2013, with the “recovery” commencin
Slide 34: Government Response to Supply Challenges
Government Response to Supply Challenges REBUILDING IRELAND UNDER REVIEW, WITH ELEMENTS OF THE PLAN ALREADY WORKING LOCAL INFRASTRUCTURE HOUSING ACTIVATION FUND (LIHAF): HELP TO BUY: Following the allocation of the €226 million LIHAF package, in which In conjunction with the changes to the Central B