CRISIL Limited · NSE:CRISIL

CRISIL — India Outlook Economy

13 slides from CRISIL's investor presentation, Mar 11, 2016

Slide 2: Key messages
Key messages  2016 is a critical year for reforms and implementation of the measures announced in 2015  Budget focus on stability over growth – Fiscal prudence – Rural focus © 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. – Public Infra Investment  Sharp turnaround in the economy still elusive – Needs ac
Slide 3: Budget and fiscal prudence
Budget and fiscal prudence 6.00 5.7 4.8 5.00 4.4 4.7 4.1 4.00 3.9 3.6 3.1 3.5 2.9 3.00 © 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.00 1.8 1.1 1.00 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.00 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 RE FY17 BE Fiscal Deficit Revenue Deficit Primary Deficit  The Tax arithmetic is broadly credible –
Slide 4: Indian economy improves over time
Indian economy improves over time 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 E 2015-16 E 2016-17 F GDP growth (%) 5.6 6.6 7.2 7.6 7.9 Inflation (%) 10.2 9.5 6 5 5 © 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. CAD / GDP (%) 4.7 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.4 Fiscal deficit / GDP (%) 4.8 4.6 4 3.9 3.5* Exchange rate (Rs/$, March-end) 54.4 6
Slide 6: Exports – the weak link
Exports – the weak link India’s growth in real exports (goods and services), %, y-o-y 8.0 7.8 6.7 4.0 © 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. 1.7 0.0 -4.0 -6.3 -8.0 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Source: Central Statistical Office 6
Slide 7: Inflation gains expected to continue through fiscal 2017
Inflation gains expected to continue through fiscal 2017 CPI (%, y-o-y) Average = 10% 12.4 10.5 10.2 © 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. 9.5 9.1 8.4 Average = 4.8% Average = 5.3% 6.8 6.2 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.3 4.1 4.2 3.8 3.9 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14
Slide 8: World Economy: Uneven with debility in emerging markets
World Economy: Uneven with debility in emerging markets 6.0 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.0 4.0 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.8 © 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. 1.0 0.6 -0.1 0.0 -1.0 -0.5 -0.3 World Eurozone USA Japan Asia-Pacific Latin America 2014 2015F 2016F S&P S&P S&P IMF OECD GDP Gr
Slide 9: Other global vulnerabilities
Other global vulnerabilities  Falling trade intensity of global growth  Increasing divergence in monetary policies – US is tightening compared with softening in Europe, Japan and China – Volatility of capital flows  Build-up of corporate debt in emerging markets © 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights rese
Slide 10: How have growth constraints moved
How have growth constraints moved 2013/14 2015 2016  Limited scope to use countercyclical policy tools – Difficulty in cutting interest rates (Legacy of high inflation) – Limits to fiscal stimulus (high debt and deficit) © 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved.  Sluggish investment cycle – Time to
Slide 13: China slowdown: Pain
China slowdown: Pain 80 60.4 60 40 30.8 © 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. 20 11.6 11.9 5.6 7.1 0 -1.5 -20 -19.2 -40 -60 -48.5 2004-05 2009-10 2014-15 Exports to China Imports from China Trade Balance 13

CRISIL — India Outlook Economy on 6ix

CRISIL — India Outlook Economy

Slide 1: India: The 7.9% Economy

Slide 2: Key messages

Slide 3: Budget and fiscal prudence

Slide 4: Indian economy improves over time

Slide 5: Growth-investment dynamics as we see it

Slide 6: Exports – the weak link

Slide 7: Inflation gains expected to continue through fiscal 2017

Slide 8: World Economy: Uneven with debility in emerging markets

Slide 9: Other global vulnerabilities

Slide 10: How have growth constraints moved

Slide 11: CRISIL Limited

Slide 12: What monsoons do to Agriculture

Slide 13: China slowdown: Pain