BP plc · LSE:BP.
BP — Investor Presentation (June 2009)
27 slides from BP's investor presentation, Jun 10, 2009
Slide 1: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2009
BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2009 Volatility and Structural Change June 10th, 2009 © BP 2009
Slide 2: Outline
Outline • Introduction • Volatility and Structural Change • Fuel by Fuel • Conclusion
Slide 3: The Economy
The Economy Growth in global GDP and trade US real policy rates and GDP growth % % % GDP growth (lhs) Real Fed Funds rate GDP (y-o-y) 6 12 5 World trade growth (rhs) 4 5 10 3 4 8 2 3 6 1 0 2 4 -1 1 2 -2 0 0 -3 2001 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 2008 2001 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 2009 Source: Includes d
Slide 4: Energy Prices
Energy Prices Index: Jan-07=100 300 250 Oil 200 (Brent) 150 Coal (NW Europe) 100 Gas (Henry Hub) 50 0 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Source: Includes data from Platts and McCloskey
Slide 5: OECD and Non-OECD Energy Consumption
OECD and Non-OECD Energy Consumption Mtoe Primary energy Mtoe Oil 6000 3000 OECD Non-OECD OECD Non-OECD 4000 2000 2000 1000 0 0 1978 1988 1998 2008 1978 1988 1998 2008 Mtoe Gas Mtoe Coal 3000 3000 OECD Non-OECD OECD Non-OECD 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 0 1978 1988 1998 2008 1978 1988 1998 2008
Slide 6: GDP and Primary Energy Growth
GDP and Primary Energy Growth OECD Non-OECD Growth Growth GDP Primary energy 3% 10% 2% 8% 1% 6% 0% 4% -1% 2% -2% 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Includes data from Oxford Economics
Slide 7: Crude Prices: What Happened?
Crude Prices: What Happened? $/bbl 150 Dated Brent Annual averages 120 90 60 30 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Includes data from Platts
Slide 8: Oil Consumption Growth
Oil Consumption Growth World OECD Mb/d y-o-y, Mb/d 1.6 0.6 Gasoline China Diesel + Jet-Kero 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.8 OECD -0.6 Non-OECD World -1.6 -0.9 2005 2006 2007 2008 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 Source: Includes data from IEA
Slide 9: Oil Consumption Growth in 2008
Oil Consumption Growth in 2008 Oil exporters and importers Tax and subsidy regimes Mb/d 1.0 10-year average 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 Oil Non-OECD OECD oil US Subsidizers Taxers exporters oil importers ex importers US
Slide 10: OPEC Adjusts to Falling Consumption
OPEC Adjusts to Falling Consumption OPEC-12 crude oil production Global consumption and production y-o-y, Mb/d y-o-y, Mb/d 2009 2009 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 Production -3 -3 Consumption -4 -4 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 Source: Includes data from US DOE
Slide 11: Main Oil Production Changes
Main Oil Production Changes Mb/d Decrease Increase -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 Mexico Non-OPEC Nigeria US FSU Norway OPEC UK Russia Canada Brazil Kazakhstan Kuwait Angola Qatar Iraq Saudi Arabia
Slide 12: Changes in Production and Inventories
Changes in Production and Inventories Global oil production changes OECD commercial inventories Mb/d 2007 2008 Million barrels 2003-2007 range 1.0 2800 2009 2008 2700 0.5 2600 0.0 OPEC -12 2500 crude -0.5 2400 -1.0 2300 Non- OPEC OPEC Non- Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov OPEC OPEC Source: Includes data from
Slide 13: Non-OPEC ex FSU Oil Production
Non-OPEC ex FSU Oil Production Mb/d North America S&C America Europe Middle East Africa Asia Pacific 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Slide 14: Reserves-to-Production Ratios
Reserves-to-Production Ratios R/P (years) OPEC FSU Other 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Note: Showing R/P ratios of over 20 years and reserves over 2 billion barrels. OPEC World FSU Other
Slide 15: Global Oil Reserves
Global Oil Reserves Bn bbls OPEC FSU OECD Other Other Oil Sands 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Slide 16: Refining Margins and Spare Capacity
Refining Margins and Spare Capacity Refining margins Spare capacity growth $/bbl Mb/d 10 1.2 BP GIM From new investment 10-year average From lower crude runs 8 0.9 6 0.6 4 0.3 2 0 0.0 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2006 2007 2008 Source: Includes data from Parpinelli and Energy Security Analysis Inc.
Slide 17: Natural Gas Market
Natural Gas Market Gas prices Growth in 2008 $/mmbtu Bcm 16 120 Japan LNG Non-OECD EU contract 14 OECD UK NBP 100 US Henry Hub 12 80 10 8 60 6 40 4 20 2 0 0 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Production Consumption Source: Includes data from Platts
Slide 18: US Gas Production
US Gas Production Gas production Production vs. rig count outside Bcm Bcm Gulf of Mexico 600 550 2008 530 500 510 400 Conventional gas 490 2007 300 470 2006 200 450 2003 2002 2005 100 2001 2004 430 1999 2000 Non-conventional gas 1997 1998 0 410 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 400 600 800 1000 120
Slide 19: Atlantic Basin LNG
Atlantic Basin LNG* By importer Switching between markets Bcm y-o-y change, Bcm Asia US 80 6 Americas 4 60 2 Asia 40 0 Europe -2 20 -4 0 -6 2007 2008 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 * LNG from Algeria, Belgium, Egypt, Nigeria, Norway, Trinidad and Equatorial Guinea Sources: Includes annual data from Cediga
Slide 20: Coal Prices and Consumption Growth
Coal Prices and Consumption Growth Prices Consumption growth $/tonne Mtoe 240 China 92.7 NWE CIF US CAAP India 18.5 Japan Steam coal 180 Russia 7.8 Qinhuangdao spot South Korea 6.4 South Africa 5.1 120 UK -2.8 Australia -4.5 60 Germany -4.8 Spain -5.6 0 US -8.3 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Sou
Slide 21: Coal in the European Union
Coal in the European Union Gas and coal consumption growth Changes in EU coal imports by source Mtoe Million tonnes Coal Gas 10 US 8.8 5 0 Russia 0.8 -5 Indonesia -1.1 -10 Australia -3.8 -15 -20 South -9.2 Africa Spain Germany UK France EU Sources: Includes data from Eurostat
Slide 22: Global Ethanol Production
Global Ethanol Production Mtoe US Brazil ROW 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Slide 23: Renewable Energy
Renewable Energy Wind capacity Solar PV capacity GW GW 150 15 US Germany US Germany Spain China Spain Japan RoW RoW 100 10 Mexico North Sea 50 5 0 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Sources: Includes data from BTM Consult, IEA, EPIA and EurObserver
Slide 24: CO2 Emissions and Prices
CO2 Emissions and Prices Global CO2 emissions EU Emissions Trading Scheme Billion tonnes of CO2 €/tonne of CO2 equivalent 17 30 OECD Non-OECD 25 16 20 15 15 14 10 Dec-09 contract 13 5 12 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Source: Includes prices from European Climate Excha
Slide 25: GDP, Population and Primary Energy Consumption
GDP, Population and Primary Energy Consumption GDP Population Primary energy Trillion, 2000$ Billion Billion toe 35 OECD Non-OECD 6 OECD Non-OECD 6 OECD Non-OECD 30 5 5 25 4 4 20 3 3 15 2 2 10 5 1 1 0 0 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2002 2004 2006 2008 2002 2004 2006 2008 Source: Includes data from Oxford E
Slide 26: Conclusion
Conclusion • 2008: Rapid market adjustment • Non-OECD: The future is here • Volatility: Unavoidable in our industry?
Slide 27: Volatility and Structural Change - Q&A
BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2009 Volatility and Structural Change Q&A © BP 2009