Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd. · ASX:TGF
Tribeca Global Natural Resources — Investor Presentation (November 2022)
57 slides from Tribeca Global Natural Resources's investor presentation, Nov 11, 2022
Slide 1: Investor Update – November 2022 (ASX announcement)
11 November 2022 For personal use only ASX Market Announcements ASX Limited 20 Bridge Street Sydney NSW 2000 BY ELECTRONIC LODGEMENT Investor Update – November 2022 Please find attached Investor Update Presentation. The information contained in this document has been prepared for use in conjunction
Slide 2: Investment Update: The Rotation from New to Old Economy has Started
Tribeca Global Natural Resources Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (ASX:TGF) Investment Update: “The Rotation from New to Old Economy has Started” Ben Cleary, Portfolio Manager Todd Warren, Head of Research November 2022 Signatory oF LN ‘Active a Princistes for cH PRI Carbon itty Resporsible Inve
Slide 3: Macro Outlook for the Natural Resources Sector
For personal use only Macro Outlook for the Natural Resources Sector
Slide 4: Overview
For personal use only Trib mle Overview 5 Macro Outlook 12 Corporate Update 27 Key Portfolio Exposures 32 Appendix: TGF Strategy Summary 47
Slide 5: Executive Summary
Executive Summary Tribeca Global Natural Resources * The TGF portfolio will be a major beneficiary of the structural shift from new to old economy equities * These rotations often last for decades and we believe we are in the early stages of this move * Similar to the 1970s and 2000s when natural re
Slide 6: For personal use only
For personal use only
Slide 7: We are at peak macro, but bottom-up will be back
We are at peak macro, but bottom-up will be back Tribeca Global Natural Resources 2022 has been one of the most macro-driven years ever. 2Q in particular was heavily driven by USD/US yields/recession concerns but looks to have peaked. Natural resources’ superior earnings growth and valuations should
Slide 8: For personal use only
For personal use only • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Slide 9: Previous Rotations Have Tended to Last for Decades
Previous Rotations Have Tended to Last for Decades Tribeca Global Natural Resources Commodities and commodity equities Strongly Outperformed broader indices during the 1970s and 2000s and we expect will be the case in the 2020s. Equities to Commodities Secular Trend Cycles 64.0 ——S&P 500 to Bloomber
Slide 10: The Rotation from Old Economy to New Economy
The Rotation from Old Economy to New Economy Tribeca Global Natural Resources We are starting to see the turning point for Old Economy stocks as we move from secular stagnation to secular stagflation. Nasdaq 100 vs S&P 500 Energy Big tech underperformance vs small cap value Exxon Mobil earnings are
Slide 11: For personal use only
• For personal use only • 240% 190% 140% 90% 40% -10%
Slide 12: Tribeca Portfolio Provides Risk Controlled Exposure to Structural Themes
Tribeca Portfolio Provides Risk Controlled Exposure to Structural Themes Tribeca Global Natural Resources Tribeca portfolio provides investors with diversified and risk-controlled exposure to structural themes compared to indices and single sector names. Industrial + Fundamental bull case for Metals
Slide 13: For personal use only
For personal use only
Slide 14: For personal use only
For personal use only • • • • • • • • •
Slide 15: For personal use only
For personal use only
Slide 16: Inventories are Tight and Deficits Widening
Inventories are Tight and Deficits Widening Tribeca Global Natural Resources Copper Inventory (Kt, RHS) and Price (USS/t, LHS) Long term supply gap remains unsolved, with widening mid term deficits te Chino Bonded Wornouses IL she ML COMEX IM UME = Copper ice 35,000 — Global copper production i 8 33
Slide 17: Cost Curves are Increasing
Cost Curves are Increasing Tribeca Global Natural Resources The incentive price to bring new projects online has increased significantly. Incentive price to bring new projects inline has increased Average incentive price of c. $9k/t, with a marginal incentive price significantly by 30% vs 2018. of $
Slide 18: Cost Inflation leading to Significant Project Delays
Cost Inflation leading to Significant Project Delays Tribeca Global Natural Resources Opex inflation Project Delays Gross cash cost across Life of a USS/Cut Breakdown of copper top projects 45 Producing projects 840 Gross Cash cost, US/Cu t not delayed, 20% 535 * 30 25 N r 20 15 producing delayed, 4
Slide 19: Inventories are Tight and Deficits Widening
Inventories are Tight and Deficits Widening Tribeca Global Natural Resources Further, Backwardation in Copper and Oil Price Curves Implies The Balance of Pricing Power Has Shifted to Physical Commodity Producers Copper Active Futures Curve Current Crude Oil Active Futures Curve Current 371 92 370 90
Slide 20: For personal use only
For personal use only
Slide 21: For personal use only
For personal use only • • `02 `04 `06 `08 `10 `12 `14 `16 `18 `20 `22
Slide 22: China Policy Impact Could Lead to Positioning Reversal
China Policy Impact Could Lead to Positioning Reversal ribeca Global Natural Resources * China's zero Covid policy has been an overhang and source of uncertainty for global equity markets. * Chinese stocks have recently rallied after speculation that the government had set up a committee to look at
Slide 23: M&A upside scenario for natural resources equities
For natural resources equities, there is an upside scenario in the form of M&A, which has historically driven market multiples across the sector higher. + The mining sector more concentrated than 20 years ago which suggests higher multiples will need to be paid to gain control of assets. It is entir
Slide 24: For personal use only
For personal use only
Slide 25: For personal use only
For personal use only • • • • 0 50 100 150 200 250 Source: International Energy Agency (IEA) data based on the IEA Stated Policies Scenario, addendum dated March 2022; IEA (2021), The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions, IEA, Paris; Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Slide 26: The need to scale up production to meet the demand for electric vehicles
The need to scale up production to meet the demand for electric vehicles More than 300 new mines could need to be built over the next decade to meet the demand for electric vehicle and energy storage batteries, according to a Benchmark forecast. At least 384 new mines for graphite, lithium, nickel a
Slide 27: Battery metals highly vulnerable due to geographic concentration
Battery metals highly vulnerable due to geographic concentration Tribeca Global Natural Resources Where Clean Energy Metals Are Produced And Where They Are Processed Production of key mineral resources is highly concentrated today. China dominates the refining and processing of key metals Charts sho
Slide 28: For personal use only
For personal use only
Slide 29: Tribeca Global Natural Resources outlook
Corporate Update ribeca Global Natural Resources * Our bullish view and positioning on the natural resources sector over the last 2 years has been largely correct besides the 2Q22. * The powderkeg of structurally increasing demand as the world electrifies combined with ongoing supply issues at the s
Slide 30: Performance Update
Performance Update 2018-19 -0.07% | -0.36% -0.71% 0.16% -0.44% — -0.16% 0.25% 3.24% 0.78% ~~ -3.78% 2019-20 -0.52% -1.93% | -0.54% 0.60% 0.79% 3.67% -7.68% -7.52% -9.48% — 5.74% 0.47% — -13.96% -27.95% 2020-21 4.52% -0.19% 0.46% — 0.53% — 9.63% — 9.12% 0.95% 5.57% — -0.04% | 7.07% — 5.64% — -3.40% 4
Slide 31: CYTD and FYTD Sector Attribution
CYTD and FYTD Sector Attribution Tribeca Global Natural Resources Calendar YTD Gross Attribution by Sector Financial Year to Date Gross Attribution by Sector Bulks << Uranium Uranium — Battery Metal ST Physical Commodity = Bose Metal LT Diversified - Precious Metals —— Diamonds 1 Physical Commodity
Slide 32: Current Positioning
Current Positioning Tribeca Global Natural Resources Net Exposures by Sector Breakdown of Gross Exposure by Strategy . a . Top 15 Equity Positions (alphabetical order) ose Metols Le No ond! lev! ° noe _— .—— nee Physical Commodity —< as octet _——_- Alpha HPA _— ovesiicd Services Diomonds em Soft Com
Slide 33: For personal use only
For personal use only
Slide 34: Tribeca Portfolio Provides Risk Controlled Exposure to Structural Themes
Tribeca Portfolio Provides Risk Controlled Exposure to Structural Themes Tribeca Global Natural Resources Tribeca portfolio provides investors with diversified and risk-controlled exposure to structural themes compared to indices and single sector names. Sector Key Positions Catalyst / Valuations :
Slide 35: For personal use only
For personal use only
Slide 36: For personal use only
For personal use only a • • • • • • •
Slide 37: Teck Resources (TECK:NYSE)
Teck Resources (TECK:NYSE) Tribeca Global Natural Resources Sector Base & Battery Metals Position Type #igUitefetatanicel| Theme Green Policy Driven Demand Potential Annual Copper Equivalent Production Growth (kt) Teck Near Term (2023-2028) ‘Medium Term (2029-2033) Future Potential (2034+) + Leading
Slide 38: For personal use only
For personal use only • • • • • • • • •
Slide 39: For personal use only
For personal use only • • • • • 0 2 4
Slide 40: For personal use only
For Seas@ie! use Oy: Tiibeca Global Natural Resources
Slide 41: Santos (STO:ASX)
Santos (STO:ASX) Tribeca Global Natural Resources Sector Energy Transition Position Type Fundamental Mtpa Green Policy Driven Demand Global LNG supply and demand 1000 Santos — — = Pacific Basin Supply Pacific Basin demand + Leading Australian gas producer with a diversified portfolio and over 100 mi
Slide 42: Halliburton (HAL:NYSE)
Halliburton (HAL:NYSE) Position Type Fundamental Green Policy Driven Demand HALLIBURTON * Leading North American energy services company with global operations * Services offered across the entire energy value chain * International revenue back to pre-pandemic levels. Total revenue not far off * Str
Slide 43: Cameco (CCJ:NYSE)
Cameco (CCJ:NYSE) Tribeca Global Natural Resources Sector Energy Transition Westinghouse to be sold in $7.9-bIn deal as interest in nuclear power grows Position Type Fundamental itaciavand faa 7) REUTERS! Cameco Theme Green Policy Driven Demand * The premier uranium producer in the world with the hi
Slide 44: For personal use only
se omy4 ,U For personal
Slide 45: Carbon Credits - A Diversified, Quality Focused Approach
Carbon Credits - A Diversified, Quality Focused Approach Tribeca 40% 35% 30% 25%. 20% 15% 40% 5% 0% Have developed a diverse portfolio of high quality, high impact nature- based carbon credits via Tribeca’s proprietary relationships. Our portfolio is exposed to a diverse portfolio of high-quality RE
Slide 46: Tailwinds for Voluntary Carbon Credits
Tailwinds for Voluntary Carbon Credits Tribeca Global Natural Resources * There is continued momentum for corporates to set ambitious targets. 3,273 companies now have a Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTi) approved net zero target - an increase of 631 from Q1 2022. * Retirements remove carbon cr
Slide 47: Large Corporates Have Capacity to Aggressively Buy Quality Credits
Large Corporates Have Capacity to Aggressively Buy Quality Credits Tribeca Global Natural Resources * BHP purchased 300,000 tonnes of credits in 2021, while 3 0 0, 00 6) tonnes Apple purchased 500,000 tonnes. + At$15/t, a price that is actually higher than most voluntary carbon credits today, this e
Slide 48: For personal use only
For personal use only
Slide 49: For personal use only
For personal use only • • • • • • • •
Slide 50: Investment Universe
Investment Universe Tribeca Global Natural Resources A flexible approach allows focus on the best risk-reward opportunities as well as the ability to invest across the value chain Oil & Gas Base Metals Crops Uranium Bulks Agriculture aA Hydrogen Specialty Metals Pea: | Aquaculture Pees Renewables Pr
Slide 51: Investing Across the Value Chain
Investing Across the Value Chain ribeca Global Natural Resources A flexible, long short, mandate and deep knowledge of value chains from project to end-user allows for the capture of different payoff profiles at different points in the cycle. Metals and Mining Value Chain Example Exploration & Engin
Slide 52: Investment Process
Investment Process For personal use only • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Slide 53: Sources of Alpha
Sources of Alpha Tribeca Global Natural Resources + Flexibility within the mandate to take advantage of different types of trades across the natural resources complex, depending on best risk-reward and market environment. + Weighting of different types of trades will vary depending on prevailing mar
Slide 54: For personal use only
For personal use only • • • • • ✓ ✖
Slide 55: Portfolio Construction Framework
Portfolio Construction Framework + Trade type, market cap and position Trade Type, Market Cap and Position Sizing Typology ah aout ce ment atancat a oe + Weighting to different trade type will vary depending on market environment and risk reward + Position sizing and portfolio liquidity >$5bn Mkt Ca
Slide 56: For personal use only
For personal use only • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • E S G
Slide 57: For personal use only
For personal use only
Tribeca Global Natural Resources — Investor Presentation (November 2022) on 6ix