Mosaic Company (the) · NYSE:MOS
Mosaic Company (the) — The Mosaic Company — Citi's March Madness 2021
10 slides from Mosaic Company (the)'s conference presentation, Mar 19, 2021
Slide 1: March Madness: Phosphates
March Madness: Phosphates Jenny Wang, VP Global Strategic Marketing Andy Jung, VP Market and Strategic Analysis
Slide 2: Forward Looking Statements
Forward Looking Statements This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about proposed or pending future transactions or strategic plans and other statements a
Slide 3: Plant nutrients remain an attractive proposition despite rising prices (a U.S. farmer example)
Plant nutrients remain an attractive proposition despite rising prices (a U.S. farmer example) • The example below shows the fertilizer cost for corn increasing $34/acre y-o-y (though this assumes the fertilizer was purchased in March 2021) • But expected revenue has risen by $128/acre Corn Spring 2
Slide 4: U.S. Phosphate Update: As expected, prices reverting towards parity and trade flows adjusting
U.S. Phosphate Update: As expected, prices reverting towards parity and trade flows adjusting • NOLA DAP/MAP prices at a ~$20/mt discount • Trade flows are adjusting as new entrants fill to global benchmarks prior to the CVD the gap left by Moroccan and Russian suppliers • Most benchmarks have “caug
Slide 5: Global Net Price History
Global Net Price History High-Analysis Phosphate Global Net Price $ per Tonne Calculated from Published Weekly Spot Prices 450 425 400 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 Source: Argus, Mosaic 200 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Global net price averages several global price benchmar
Slide 6: Global Net Price Déjà vu?
Global Net Price Déjà vu? 2009 bottom through 2011 versus 2019 bottom through this year 2009-2011 2019-2021 US$/MT US$/MT Sustained period of 500 elevated net price 500 450 450 400 350 400 350 ? 300 300 250 250 200 The “Bottom” 200 The “Bottom” 150 150 Source: Argus, Mosaic Source: Argus, Mosaic 100
Slide 7: Phosphate S/D: Then and Now
Phosphate S/D: Then and Now Mil Tonnes North America Phosphate Producers Stocks DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP (estimated end-quarter on- and off-site inventories) 2.0 1.5 • Using North America inventories as a proxy for market tightness, a similar 1.0 pattern has developed over the past two years as 0.5 had occur
Slide 8: India Import Timing: It is not unusual for delayed buying
India Import Timing: It is not unusual for delayed buying (but they need the tonnes and will be back) • India DAP pricing remains disconnected with global values and volumes have dried up • India has low starting inventory, but despite that it would not be uncommon for India to forgo significant imp
Slide 9: Could Brazilian demand outperform our expectations to provide an offset to India?
Could Brazilian demand outperform our expectations to provide an offset to India? • Import volumes starting the year on a very strong pace (up ~15% y-o-y in Q1) • Record-high farm economics drive demand Mil Tonnes Brazil Phosphate Imports Reais/bu Brazil Soybean Price DAP TSP MAP/NPS Forecast Range
Slide 10: Summary
Summary Global phosphate market remains tight with NOLA at global parity Phosphate global demand strength expected to continue • Farmer economics are strong • India demand risk driven by subsidy uncertainty • Brazil growth may offset any Indian decline Phosphate global supply growth limited • China