Slide 1: Equity Investor Presentation March 31, 2024
EMBRACE POSSIBILITIES, INVEST IN CERTAINTIES Equity Investor Presentation March 31, 2024
Slide 2: Forward-Looking Statements and Safe Harbor Disclosure
Forward-Looking Statements and Safe Harbor Disclosure • This presentation contains information that includes or is based upon forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward looking statements give the expectations or forecasts of future
Slide 3: Conventions and Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Conventions and Non-GAAP Financial Measures • Unless otherwise noted, the following conventions are used in this presentation: ◦ Ratings on Assured Guaranty’s insured portfolio are Assured Guaranty’s internal ratings. ▪ Internal credit ratings are expressed on a ratings scale similar to that used by
Slide 4: Table of Contents
Table of Contents • Overview and Accomplishments • Assured Guaranty overview – Track record of creating shareholder value – Dividend limitation calculations – Simplified corporate structure • Underlying value – High-quality investment portfolio – Deleveraging while maintaining total invested assets
Slide 5: First Quarter 2024 Overview
First Quarter 2024 Overview Financial Results • Earned $113 million of adjusted operating income1 (or $1.96 per share) – This result was nearly double the amount in the first quarter of 2023 ($68 million) and 75% higher on a per share basis ($1.12 per share) • Increased on a per share basis sharehol
Slide 6: Strength of Financial Guaranty Business Model
Strength of Financial Guaranty Business Model • The Company insures scheduled payments of principal and interest when due – Insurance law requires that each policy must provide that there shall be no acceleration of the Company's obligations unless such acceleration is at our sole option • Issuers t
Slide 7: Assured Guaranty Overview
ASSURED GUARANTY Assured Guaranty Overview
Slide 8: Assured Guaranty Overview: Overview and Ratings
Assured Guaranty Overview Overview and Ratings Assured Guaranty Ltd. ($ in billions) Mar 31, 2024 Sep 30, 2009 • We are the leading financial guaranty franchise, with nearly four decades of experience in the Insured net par outstanding $248.1 $646.6 municipal and structured finance markets • We serv
Slide 9: Assured Guaranty Ltd. Corporate Structure
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Corporate Structure Assured Guaranty Ltd. Hamilton, Bermuda Publicly Traded Holding Company (NYSE: AGO) A (stable outlook) / Baa1 (stable outlook) issuer credit ratings Assured Guaranty US Holdings Inc. (AGUS) U.S. Holding Company S&P: A (stable outlook) / KBRA: A+ (stable outl
Slide 10: Adjusted Operating Income
Assured Guaranty Overview Adjusted Operating Income • Adjusted operating income1 per share was $1.96 in the first quarter of 2024, up from $1.12 in same period of 2023 – This increase resulted primarily from a benefit from the refunding of a municipal exposure ($26 million) and fair value gains on P
Slide 11: Track Record of Creating Shareholder Value
Assured Guaranty Overview Track Record of Creating Shareholder Value • We have returned excess capital to shareholders by repurchasing our common shares and distributing dividends – Since 2013, when we started our capital management strategy of repurchasing our common shares, through May 7, 2024, we
Slide 12: Dividend Limitation Calculations
Assured Guaranty Overview Dividend Limitation Calculations Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Assured Guaranty Corp. Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (AG Re) (Domiciled in New York) (Domiciled in Maryland) (Domiciled in Bermuda) • Based on most recently filed quarterly or annual statement • Based on most rece
Slide 13: Simplified Corporate Structure With Dividend Capacity
Assured Guaranty Overview Simplified Corporate Structure With Dividend Capacity1 Shareholders Assured Guaranty Ltd. • Total investment portfolio and cash of $72 million2 • Annual net expenses of $45 million Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (Head Office – Bermuda; Tax Residence – U.K.) • Annual dividend dist
Slide 14: Underlying Value
Underlying Value
Slide 15: High-Quality Investment Portfolio
Underlying Value High-Quality Investment Portfolio Total Invested Assets and Cash1,2 As of March 31, 2024 U.S. government & agencies AAA 3 • Predominately consists of highly rated, 29% 1% fixed maturity and short-term investments, Other invested assets and cash; 55% rated AA or higher 5% • Approxima
Slide 16: Deleveraging
Underlying Value Deleveraging • Our insured net par outstanding to adjusted operating shareholders’ equity1 has declined considerably from 157:1 in 4Q-09 to 42:1 as of 1Q-24 • Over the same time period, total invested assets and cash has declined more modestly – As of 1Q-24, total invested assets an
Slide 17: Net Investment Income and Operating Expenses
Underlying Value Net Investment Income1 and Operating Expenses2 • Net investment income1 excludes the returns generated from (i) $760 million in alternative investments2, (ii) the $417 million ownership interest in Sound Point and (iii) $272 million of trading securities as of March 31, 2024. Net In
Slide 18: Historical Growth: Adjusted Book Value per Share
Underlying Value Historical Growth Adjusted Book Value1 per Share2 $155.92 $157.31 $141.98 $130.67 $49.38 $49.62 $114.87 AG R) $48.06 1 0% C $41.94 cre ase ( 2% in $36.38 54 V alue: Book Adj. $53.39 $48.26 $106.54 $107.69 $16.15 $88.73 $93.92 $78.49 $24.51 $26.06 $26.12 $6.43 $7.18 $37.24 $18.08 $18
Slide 19: Creating Value
ASSURED GUARANTY Creating Value
Slide 20: Insurance: Underwriting Principles and Pricing Discipline
Creating Value Insurance Underwriting Principles and Pricing Discipline • Assured Guaranty insured approximately $4 billion of aggregate par in the first quarter of 2024 – U.S. public finance insured the fourth largest amount of first-quarter par in a decade – Global structured finance insured the s
Slide 21: Penetration in the U.S. Public Finance Market
Creating Value Insurance Penetration in the U.S. Public Finance Market • Assured Guaranty’s U.S. public finance new business production had a solid start to 2024 – U.S. public finance insured $2.9 billion of total par that closed in the first quarter – U.S. public finance PVP1 was approximately $43
Slide 22: Non-U.S. Public Finance Business Activity
Creating Value Insurance Non-U.S. Public Finance Business Activity Non-U.S. Public Finance PVP1 • The international business continues to have a (Q1; $ in millions) strong and very active pipeline of business, although transactions often have long lead times $30 and therefore production may vary per
Slide 23: Global Structured Finance Business Activity
Creating Value Insurance Global Structured Finance Business Activity • In the first quarter of 2024, new business PVP Global Structured Finance PVP1 primarily consisted of insurance securitization (Q1; $ in millions) and subscription finance transactions $60 • In 2023, new business PVP primarily con
Slide 24: Puerto Rico Update
Creating Value Puerto Rico Update • The Company has divested the majority of the Plan Consideration it received in connection with the resolution of General Obligation (GO) and Public Buildings Authority (PBA), Puerto Rico Convention Center District Authority (PRCCDA), Puerto Rico Infrastructure Fin
Slide 25: Asset Management
Creating Value Asset Management • In 2023, Assured Guaranty contributed most of AssuredIM to Sound Point in exchange for approximately 30% of the combined Sound Point entity, and the Company sold its entire equity interest in Assured Healthcare Partners, LLC (AHP) – AGM and AGC engaged Sound Point a
Slide 26: Financial Results
ASSURED GUARANTY Financial Results M4
Slide 27: First Quarter 2024 Results: Select Financial Items
First Quarter 2024 Results Select Financial Items Select GAAP Results ($ in millions, except per share data and percentages) Three Months Ended March 31, % Change vs. 1Q-23 2024 2023 Net income (loss) attributable to AGL $109 $81 35% Net income (loss) attributable to AGL per diluted share $1.89 $1.3
Slide 28: First Quarter 2024 Results: Supplemental Information
First Quarter 2024 Results Supplemental Information Select Income Components ($ in millions) Three Months Ended March 31, 2024 Employee Net Income (Loss) Asset Compensation, Benefit Attributable to Net Earned Net Investment Management Loss Expense Expenses and Other Assured Guaranty Premiums Income
Slide 29: Consolidated Insurance Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid
Consolidated Insurance Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid Three Months Ended March 31, 2024 ($ in millions) Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid1 for the Three Months Ended March 31, 2024 Net Expected Loss Net Economic Loss Net Expected Loss to be Paid Development Net (Paid) to be Paid
Slide 30: Insurance Loss Measures
Insurance Loss Measures Loss and LAE reported on the GAAP Consolidated Statement of Operations: • Represents loss and loss adjustment expenses (LAE) for contracts accounted for as insurance and not those accounted for as credit derivatives or those accounted for as FG VIEs — GAAP financial guaranty
Slide 31: Insurance Portfolio Overview
Insurance Portfolio Overview Eiffage CEVM / Foster + Partners / Jean-Pierre Lescourret
Slide 32: Three Discrete Insurance Companies with Separate Capital Bases
Three Discrete Insurance Companies with Separate Capital Bases Consolidated Statutory-Basis Claims-Paying Resources and Exposures As of March 31, 2024 ($ in millions) AGM AGC AG Re6 Eliminations2 Consolidated Claims-paying resources Policyholders' surplus $ 2,665 $ 1,638 $ 732 $ (228) $ 4,807 Contin
Slide 33: Net Par Outstanding By Sector
Net Par Outstanding By Sector • Assured Guaranty’s insured portfolio is largely Consolidated Net Par Outstanding concentrated in U.S. public finance As of March 31, 2024 ($ in billions) — 77% U.S. public finance Non-U.S. — 19% Non-U.S. public finance Structured Finance — 3% U.S. structured finance $
Slide 34: Net Par Outstanding Amortization
Net Par Outstanding Amortization • Over the last six years, the net par outstanding of the insured portfolio has stabilized significantly – This stabilization was primarily driven by new business production in U.S. public finance and non-U.S. public finance – This will help stabilize our future earn
Slide 35: U.S. Public Finance
U.S. Public Finance Net Par Outstanding U.S. Public Finance As of March 31, 2024 ($ in billions) • U.S. public finance net par outstanding is $190 billion and makes up 77% of our total General obligation insured portfolio as of March 31, 2024 $74.9 • U.S. public finance portfolio generally Other Pub
Slide 36: Puerto Rico Exposure
Public Finance Puerto Rico Exposure Exposure to Puerto Rico As of March 31, 2024 ($ in millions) Net Par Outstanding Total Net Par Gross Par AGM AGC AG Re Eliminations1 Outstanding Outstanding Defaulted Puerto Rico Exposures Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) $377 $67 $180 $— $624 $633 Tot
Slide 37: Puerto Rico Exposure: Scheduled Net Par Amortization
Public Finance Puerto Rico Exposure Scheduled Net Par Amortization of Exposure to Puerto Rico As of March 31, 2024 2024 2024 2024 2034 - 2039 - ($ in millions) (Q2) (Q3) (Q4) 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2038 2041 Total Defaulted Puerto Rico Exposures PREPA $ — $ 93 $ — $ 68 $ 105 $
Slide 38: Puerto Rico Exposure: Scheduled Net Debt Service Amortization
Public Finance Puerto Rico Exposure Scheduled Net Debt Service Amortization of Exposure to Puerto Rico As of March 31, 2024 2024 2024 2024 2034 - 2039 - ($ in millions) (Q2) (Q3) (Q4) 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2038 2041 Total Defaulted Puerto Rico Exposures PREPA $ 3 $ 105 $ 3 $ 9
Slide 39: Non-U.S. Public Finance Exposure
Non-U.S. Public Finance Exposure Net Par Outstanding By Type As of March 31, 2024($ in billions) Infrastructure • Non-U.S. public finance net par outstanding is finance $48 billion and makes up 19% of our total $15.0 Sovereign and insured portfolio as of March 31, 2024 sub-sovereign 31% $9.7 — Direc
Slide 40: Global Structured Finance Exposures
Global Structured Finance Exposures Net Par Outstanding By Type As of March 31, 2024 ($ in billions) U.S. RMBS $1.7 • Assured Guaranty’s total structured Insurance Securitizations Global Pooled finance exposure of $10.0 billion, as of $4.6 21% 17% Corporate March 31, 2024, reflects a $164.6 billion
Slide 41: CLO Exposures
CLO Exposures Exposure in Three Distinct Areas Non-CLO Exposure $247.5 1. $676 million of insured exposure • Eight transactions Insured Portfolio • All of the exposure is investment grade Net Par Outstanding As of Mar 31, 2024 • Average credit enhancement is approximately 41% ($ in billions) • The C
Slide 42: Below Investment Grade Exposures
Below Investment Grade Exposures Net Par Outstanding by BIG Category1 Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives Surveillance Categories • As of March 31, 2024, approximately $2.4 ($ millions) March 31, 2024 December 31, 2023 billion (46%) of the aggregate BIG BIG Category 1 exposure was Ca
Slide 43: BIG Financial Guaranty Exposure Decline
BIG Financial Guaranty Exposure Decline • Since the fourth quarter of 2013, BIG net par outstanding has declined by $17.3 billion • The largest components of our BIG exposure are Healthcare at 21%, Puerto Rico at 19%, and U.S. RMBS at 17% BIG Net Par Outstanding Changes in BIG Net Par Outstanding ($
Slide 44: BIG Exposures > $250 Million
BIG Exposures > $250 Million BIG Exposures Greater Than $250 Million As of March 31, 2024 ($ in millions) Net Par Internal Type1 Name or Description Outstanding Rating2 PF ProMedica Healthcare Obligated Group, Ohio $820 BB- PF Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority 624 CCC PF Coventry & Rugby Hospital
Slide 45: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 46: Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures The Company discloses both: (i) financial measures determined in accordance with GAAP; and (ii) financial measures not determined in accordance with GAAP (non-GAAP financial measures). Financial measures identified as non-GAAP should not be conside
Slide 47: Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont'd)
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont’d) The following paragraphs define each non-GAAP financial measure disclosed by the Company and describe why it is useful. To the extent there is a directly comparable GAAP financial measure, a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure
Slide 48: Adjusted Operating Shareholders' Equity and Adjusted Book Value
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont’d) Adjusted Operating Shareholders’ Equity and Adjusted Book Value: Management believes that adjusted operating shareholders’ equity is a useful measure because it excludes the fair value adjustments on investments, credit derivatives and CCS
Slide 49: Adjusted Operating Return on Equity
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont’d) Adjusted Operating Return on Equity (Adjusted Operating ROE): Adjusted Operating ROE represents adjusted operating income for a specified period divided by the average of adjusted operating shareholders’ equity at the beginning and the end
Slide 50: Reconciliation of Gross Written Premiums to PVP
Appendix AGL Consolidated Reconciliation of Gross Written Premiums (GWP) to PVP Three Months Ended Reconciliation of GWP to PVP March 31, Year Ended December 31, (dollars in millions) 2024 2023 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 Total GWP $61 $86 $357 $360 $377 $454 $677 $612 $307 1 Less: Installmen
Slide 51: Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted Operating Income
Appendix Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Operating Income1 Three Months Ended Adjusted Operating Income Reconciliation March 31 (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) 2024 2023 Per Per Diluted Diluted Total Share Total Share Net income (loss) attributable
Slide 52: Adjusted Operating Income Reconciliation (2012-2023)
Appendix Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Operating Income1 (2012-2023) Adjusted Operating Income1 Reconciliation Year Ended December 31, (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 Total Per Share Total Per Share Total Per Share T
Slide 53: Adjusted Operating Income Reconciliation (2004-2011)
Appendix Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Operating Income1 (2004-2011) Adjusted Operating Income1 Reconciliation Year Ended December 31, (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 Total Per Share Total Per Share Total Per Share T
Slide 54: Reconciliation of Shareholders' Equity to Adjusted Book Value
Appendix Reconciliation of AGL Shareholders’ Equity to Adjusted Book Value1 Adjusted book value1 reconciliation As of (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) Mar 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Mar 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Per Per Per Total Share Total Share Total Per Share Total Share Reconciliation of
Slide 55: Adjusted Book Value Reconciliation (2017-2021)
Appendix Reconciliation of AGL Shareholders’ Equity to Adjusted Book Value1 (2017-2021) Adjusted book value1 reconciliation As of December 31, (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 Per Per Per Per Per Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Reco
Slide 56: Adjusted Book Value Reconciliation (2012-2016)
Appendix Reconciliation of AGL Shareholders’ Equity to Adjusted Book Value1 (2012-2016) Adjusted book value1 reconciliation As of December 31, (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 Per Per Per Per Per Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Reco
Slide 57: Adjusted Book Value Reconciliation (2007-2011)
Appendix Reconciliation of AGL Shareholders’ Equity to Adjusted Book Value1 (2007-2011) Adjusted book value1 reconciliation As of December 31, (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Per Per Per Per Per Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Reco
Slide 58: Adjusted Book Value Reconciliation (2004-2006)
Appendix Reconciliation of AGL Shareholders’ Equity to Adjusted Book Value1 (2004-2006) Adjusted book value1 reconciliation As of December 31, (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) 2006 2005 2004 2004 Q2 Per Per Per Per Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Reconciliation of shar
Slide 59: Calculation of Adjusted Operating Portfolio Leverage
Appendix Calculation of Adjusted Operating Portfolio Leverage Adjusted Operating Leverage As of December 31, (dollars in millions, except leverage) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Insured net par outstanding $640,194 $616,686 $556,830 $518,772 $459,107 $403,729 $358,571 Adjusted operating shareho
Slide 60: Reconciliation of GAAP ROE to Adjusted Operating ROE
Appendix Reconciliation of AGL GAAP ROE1 to Adjusted Operating ROE1,2 ROE Reconciliation (dollars in millions) Three Months Ended March 31, 2024 2023 Net income (loss) attributable to AGL $109 $81 2 Adjusted operating income 113 68 Average shareholders' equity attributable to AGL $5,671 $5,142 2 Ave
Slide 61: Assured Guaranty Contacts
Assured Guaranty Contacts: Robert Tucker Senior Managing Director Investor Relations and Corporate Communications Direct: 212.339.0861 rtucker@agltd.com Andre Thomas Managing Director Equity Investor Relations Direct: 212.339.3551 athomas@agltd.com Glenn Alterman Vice President Investor Relations Di