Slide 1: Q3 2022 Investor Review
Q3 2022 Investor Review November 3, 2022
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer Unless otherwise indicated, all references in this presentation to “GFL”, “we”, “our”, “us”, the “Company” or similar terms refer to GFL Environmental Inc. and its consolidated subsidiaries. Forward-Looking Information This presentation includes certain “forward-looking statements” and “f
Slide 3: Q3 2022 Bridges – Implied Guidance vs Actual
Q3 2022 Bridges – Implied Guidance vs Actual Revenue Bridge Solid & Environmental Excess ES FX Soil Volume Services (“ES”) Sub-contracting Commodities New M&A $20 ($10) Volumes $30 ($5) $7 Solid Price & $50 Surcharges $5 $1,831 $1,735 Implied Q3 2022 Q3 2021 A Solid Price & Solid & ES Excess Commodi
Slide 4: Q3 2022 Solid Waste Adjusted EBITDA Margin Bridge – Year Over Year
Q3 2022 Solid Waste Adjusted EBITDA Margin(1) Bridge – Year Over Year Direct Fuel (90 bps) Indirect Fuel (85 bps) Commodities (85 bps) Price in Excess of Fire All Other Costs (35 bps) M&A (25 bps) 40 bps 31.7% 28.9% Q32021 Q3 2021A Direct Fuel Indirect Fuel Commodities Fire M&A Price in Excess of Q3
Slide 5: Fuel Surcharge Implementation Continued to Accelerate
Fuel Surcharge Implementation Continued to Accelerate Direct & Indirect Fuel Price Impact & Change in Fuel Surcharge by Quarter Significant Incremental Fuel Cost Recovery Opportunity $50 75% 50% 40% Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22 Future State Fuel Price Impact - Direct Fuel Price Impact - Indirect Change in Fuel
Slide 6: Adjusted Free Cash Flow – Fiscal 2022 Full Year Guidance
Fiscal 2022 Full Year Guidance Fiscal 2022 YTD Q3 2022(1) Implied Q4 2022(2) (C$ millions, unless otherwise noted) Guidance(2) Revenue $4,940 $1,660 – $1,710 $6,600 – $6,650 Adjusted EBITDA 1,281 ~430 – 450 1,710 – 1,730 Adjusted EBITDA margin 25.9% ~26.1% ~26.0% Adjusted Free Cash Flow Adjusted Fre
Slide 7: Adjusted EBITDA – Transaction & Acquisition Adjustments
Adjusted EBITDA(1) – Transaction & Acquisition Adjustments Adjusted EBITDA(1) – Fiscal 2018, Fiscal 2020 & YTD 2022 1,281 1,077 479 1,345 409 158 526 83 168 40.7%(2) 72 11.1%(2) 57 4.4%(2) (121) FY2018A FY2020A YTD 2022A Acquisition & Transaction Costs Other Adjustments EBITDA(1) Total Adjustments,
Slide 8: Net Leverage in Constant Currency – Delevering Driven by Growth
Net Leverage(1) in Constant Currency – Delevering Driven by Growth Illustrative Net Leverage(1) Profile at December 31, 2021 FX Rate Subsequent to the initial full year 2022 guidance provided in February 2022: Interest rates increased by 300 to 400 bps Q4 Net Leverage(1) will Depend on FX Inflat
Slide 9: Greater Weighting of Fixed Rate Obligations in Rising Rate Environment
Greater Weighting of Fixed Rate Obligations in Rising Rate Environment Variable vs Fixed Interest Current Debt Maturity Profile 3,482 Anticipate Credit Revolver Rating Upgrades 9% 1,028 Prior to Maturity (~3.8%) TLA Unsecured Notes 5% 2,495 30% 685 2,056 (~4.8%) ~$9.4B TLB ~5.5%(1) 1,310 1,782 19% (
Slide 10: Fiscal 2023 Outlook – Potential Revenue Bridge
Fiscal 2023 Outlook – Potential Revenue Bridge Commodities (~1%) FX ~2% Net M&A Rollover ~3% Organic Growth High Single Digits $7.4B+ Potential Fiscal 2023 Revenue $6.6B+ Fiscal 2022 Guidance Potential for Above Average Adjusted EBITDA Margin Expansion in Fiscal 2023 Note: CAD$, unless otherwise not
Slide 11: Base Business Supports Delevering
Base Business Supports Delevering Illustrative Delevering Profile Every 5% growth in Adjusted EBITDA(1) reduces Net Leverage(1) by ~0.20x – 0.25x Every $500M of FCF reduces Net Leverage(1) by ~0.25x – 0.30x Every $375M of M&A spend(2) increases Net Leverage(1) by ~0.05x Adjusted EBITDA(1) grow
Slide 12: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 13: Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation
Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation (C$ millions, unless otherwise noted) 1. Comparative figures: Comparative figures have been re-presented, refer to Note 18 in our Interim Financial Statements. Three months ended Nine months ended September 30, September 30, 2. Net (loss) income from continuing operati
Slide 14: Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation – Historical Intensity of Adjustments
Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation – Historical Intensity of Adjustments (C$ millions, unless otherwise noted) 1. Loss (gain) on foreign exchange: Consists of (i) non-cash gains and losses on foreign exchange and interest rate swaps entered into in connection with our debt Nine months ended Year ended i
Slide 15: Adjusted Free Cash Flow Reconciliation
Adjusted Free Cash Flow Reconciliation (C$ millions, unless otherwise noted) 1. Operating cash flows from discontinued operations: Consists of operating cash flows from discontinued operations. As at September 30, 2022, GFL’s Infrastructure Three months ended Nine months ended services division was
Slide 16: Adjusted Net Income from Continuing Operations Reconciliation
Adjusted Net Income from Continuing Operations Reconciliation (C$ and shares in millions, unless otherwise noted) 1. Comparative figures: Comparative figures have been re-presented, refer to Note 18 Three months ended Nine months ended in our Interim Financial Statements. September 30, September 30,
Slide 17: Definitions
Definitions “EBITDA” represents, for the applicable period, net income (loss) from continuing operations plus (a) interest and other finance costs, plus (b) depreciation and amortization of property and equipment, landfill assets and intangible assets, less (c) the provision for income taxes, in eac