ASML Holding NV · EURONEXT:ASML
ASML Holding NV — Investor Day (September 2021)
24 slides from ASML Holding NV's investor day presentation, Sep 29, 2021
Slide 1: Business Model and Capital Allocation Strategy
Business Model and Capital Allocation Strategy Roger Dassen Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Public
Slide 2: Business model and capital allocation strategy: key messages
Business model and capital allocation strategy Key messages Slide 2 29 Sept. 2021 Our continued investments in technology leadership have created significant shareholder value Growth in semiconductor end markets and increasing lithography intensity on future nodes fuel demand for our products and se
Slide 3: Historical shareholder value creation
Slide 3 29 Sept. 2021 • Historical shareholder value creation Continuing growth Continued shareholder value creation Public
Slide 4: ASML's technology leadership comes from strategic investments
ASML’s technology leadership comes from strategic investments that enable cost-effective innovations for our customers Slide 4 29 Sept. 2021 Berliner Glas acquisition (0.3B€) Carl Zeiss SMT Holding 3.2 acquisition 24.9% interest (1.0B€) 2.9 1.0 Cymer acquisition HMI acquisition 2.2 0.9 (3.1B€) (2.8B
Slide 5: ASML's EPS has grown at a CAGR of 14%
ASML’s EPS has grown at a CAGR of 14% driven by system and installed base revenue with improved margins Slide 5 29 Sept. 2021 • Systems revenue grew at a 10% EPS/ GM/ Revenue CAGR since 2010 • Installed Base Management* grew at a 20% CAGR since 2010 driven by upgrades and service of growing installe
Slide 6: ASML created significant shareholder value over the past 10 years
ASML created significant shareholder value over the past 10 years Slide 6 29 Sept. 2021 Total Shareholder Return ASML (Nasdaq) Total Shareholder Return annualized compounded We could show until end TSR 29% versus 2020, like prior graphs, to address Roger’s concern Nasdaq at 18% on 2021 explosion Sou
Slide 7: Continuing growth
Slide 7 29 Sept. 2021 Historical shareholder value creation • Continuing growth Continued shareholder value creation Public
Slide 8: Model scenarios
Model scenarios Process Slide 8 29 Sept. 2021 End markets Start with end markets Convert to wafer demand: 2025 Wafer demand Low - High scenarios scenarios: Translate to ww units, convert - High Litho spend to ASML share - Low Installed Base Estimate growth of our business Installed Base business Pub
Slide 9: Semi end markets expected to grow 7% longer-term
Semi end markets expected to grow 7% longer-term Slide 9 29 Sept. 2021 Smartphone (B$) Consumer electronics (B$) Personal computing (B$) +6.7% +7.8% +2.6% 161 120 119 155 155 160 70 115 144 64 69 66 67 102 100 109 110 113 108 106 116 43 48 43 48 83 78 93 86 76 87 36 35 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Slide 10: Translating to growth of wafer demand in all segments
Translating to growth of wafer demand in all segments Slide 10 29 Sept. 2021 2015 2020 2025 CAGR 1.7 Logic & MPU 1.1 +9.9% 0.5 (≤ 28 nm) 1.8 1.4 1.2 +5.2% DRAM 2.1 1.5 1.6 +5.7% NAND million wafer starts/month PCs and laptops Smartphones and tablets Servers Automotive Consumer incl. wearables Other
Slide 11: Lithography spend increasing on future nodes
Lithography spend increasing on future nodes Slide 11 29 Sept. 2021 Logic / MPU DRAM NAND Performance memory Storage memory 45K wafers/month 100K wafers/month 120K wafers/month ~30% NoN1 >20% NoN1 >10% NoN1 High NA EUV ArFi Dry 1 NoN: Node on Node Public
Slide 12: Installed Base Management: growing installed base provides growth opportunity
Installed Base Management*: growing installed base provides opportunity for growth in service and upgrades Slide 12 29 Sept. 2021 Growth drivers: Installed Base Management: Services and upgrades Revenues B€ • Growing installed base 8 7 • Service: move to value- ~12% CAGR Installed Base revenue (B€)
Slide 13: Model assumptions 2025
Model assumptions 2025 Slide 13 29 Sept. 2021 Logic / MPU Performance memory Storage memory Market share assumptions: EUV 100%, ArFi 90%, Dry 65% • EUV High-NA high volume from 2025 • EUV High-NA from D0a onwards • Storage class memory remains General • 2 year cadence a niche • 3D NAND: stack of sta
Slide 14: Key challenges we face in our industry
Key challenges* we face in our industry Slide 14 29 Sept. 2021 Geo(political) landscape General ASML • Technological sovereignty • End-market growth dynamic • Managing execution of leading to new fabs in more • War for talent technology roadmap regions • Increasing focus on • Managing ramp in produc
Slide 15: Our updated model goes beyond our high-market scenario from 2018
Our updated model goes beyond our high-market scenario from 2018 Slide 15 29 Sept. 2021 ASML modeled Sales in 2025 (in B€) 2018 high market scenario Market demand EUV insertion based on mid EUV insertion based on moderate market Worldwide units Sales Worldwide units Sales High-NA 9 Systems 17.9 High
Slide 16: Simulation model 2025 supports sales between ~24 and ~30 B€
Our simulation model 2025 supports total sales between ~24 B€ (Low market) – ~30 B€ (High market) Slide 16 29 Sept. 2021 ASML modeled sales in 2025 (in B€) Worldwide litho units Sales High-NA 5 Systems (Litho and M&I) 23.0 EUV 70 Installed Base Management 7.0 ArFi 87 High market Dry 290 Total 452 To
Slide 17: Higher sales across product portfolio in 2025 modeled scenario
Higher sales across product portfolio translates to increase in 2025 modeled scenario Slide 17 29 Sept. 2021 ASML 2025 modeled sales (mid point of range) Modeled sales (B€) *Non EUV = DUV, Metrology and Inspection **IBM = Installed Base Management Public
Slide 18: ASML updated financial model
ASML updated financial model Slide 18 29 Sept. 2021 2020 2025 2025 (Actuals) (CMD 2018 Ranges) (Low - High market) Total sales 14.0B€ ~15 - 24B€ ~24.0 - 30.0B€ Installed base 3.7B€ ~5 - 6B€ ~6.0 - 7.0B€ Management System sales 10.3B€ ~10 - 18B€ ~18.0 - 23.0B€ Gross margin 48.6% >>50% ~54 - 56% R&D 1
Slide 19: Market opportunities support another 10 years of growth
Market opportunities support another 10 years of growth Slide 19 29 Sept. 2021 Drivers 2020 2025 2030 CAGR Systems: New and existing technology nodes Litho, in all segments will continue to be the Metrology & ~11%* main driver for our system revenue for Inspection litho and metrology & inspection ~1
Slide 20: Continued shareholder value creation
Slide 20 29 Sept. 2021 Historical shareholder value creation Continuing growth • Continued shareholder value creation Public
Slide 21: ASML's capital allocation policy
ASML’s capital allocation policy Slide 21 29 Sept. 2021 Focused investment in our business through R&D, CapEx Excess cash distribution Combination of growing dividends and share Berliner Glas acquisition buybacks (0.3B€)* Carl Zeiss SMT Holding acquisition 24.9% interest 16.00 (1.0B€)* 14.0 14.00 HM
Slide 22: Business model and capital allocation strategy: key messages
Business model and capital allocation strategy Key messages Slide 22 29 Sept. 2021 Our continued investments in technology leadership have created significant shareholder value Growth in semiconductor end markets and increasing lithography intensity on future nodes fuel demand for our products and s
Slide 23: Forward Looking Statements
Forward Looking Statements Slide 23 29 Sept. 2021 This presentation contains statements that are forward-looking, including statements with respect to expected industry and business environment trends including expected growth, outlook and expected financial results, including expected net sales, gr
Slide 24: Investor Day
Investor Day Virtual Slide 24 29 Sept. 2021