Mol Hungarian Oil & Gas Plc Class A · BET:MOL
Mol Hungarian Oil & Gas Plc Class A — MOL Group — Investor Day (March 2024)
39 slides from Mol Hungarian Oil & Gas Plc Class A's investor day presentation, March 2024
Slide 1: Shape Tomorrow Strategy Review - Capital Market Update
SHAPE TOMORROW STRATEGY REVIEW CAPITAL MARKET UPDATE March 2024
Slide 2: Disclaimer
DISCLAIMER "THIS PRESENTATION AND THE ASSOCIATED SLIDES AND DISCUSSION CONTAIN FORWARD -LOOKING STATEMENTS. THESE STATEMENTS ARE NATURALLY SUBJECT TO UNCERTAINTY AND CHANGES IN CIRCUMSTANCES. THOSE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS MAY INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO, THOSE REGARDING CAPITAL EMPLOYED, CAPI
Slide 3: MOL 2030+: Transformation to Shape Tomorrow
MOL 2030+: TRANSFORMATION TO SHAPE TOMORROW KEY DIRECTIONS UNCHANGED WITH REFINED TRANSITION PATH 2016 2021 2024 MOL 2030 Enter Tomorrow Shape Tomorrow 2030+ Shape Tomorrow Key long-term challenges of the Updated strategy with additional More refined view on key industry correctly identified focus o
Slide 4: On Path to Deliver Our Targets
ON PATH TO DELIVER OUR TARGETS INTERIM TARGETS STATUS SIMPLIFIED FREE CASH FLOW: AT E&P LEAST USD 1.8 BN IN 2021-2025 USD 3.7 BN SFCF DELIVERED IN 2021-2023* MANAGE DECLINE IN CEE CEE YOY BASELINE DECLINE KEPT AT 1% P.A. IN 2021-2023 OPPORTUNISTIC AND ACTIVE HIGHGRADING THE INTERNATIONAL PORTFOLIO W
Slide 5: Key Messages
KEY MESSAGES SHAPE > TOMORROW MOL Group Strategy
Slide 6: Navigating the Complexities of the Energy Transition
NAVIGATING THE COMPLEXITIES OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN A SHIFTING LANDSCAPE AFFORDABILITY Sustainability regulations: ambitious goals, but high uncertainty regarding markets & technologies Geopolitical tensions: need for supply diversification & improved European compet
Slide 7: Answers to Short and Long-Term Challenges of the Industry
ANSWERS TO SHORT AND LONG-TERM CHALLENGES OF THE INDUSTRY KEY FOCUS AREAS OF 2021 STRATEGY REMAIN, EXTRA EMPHASIS ON SUPPLY SECURITY AND GREEN TRANSFORMATION INVEST MAINTAINING INTO TRANSFORMATION SECURITY OF SUPPLY Petchem E&P Focus of further development shifted from large-scale Maintain a healthy
Slide 8: MOL Group's Transformation Is Underpinned by Healthy Fundamentals
MOL GROUP’S TRANSFORMATION IS UNDERPINNED BY HEALTHY FUNDAMENTALS
Slide 9: MOL Is the Dominant O&G Player of the CEE Region
MOL IS THE DOMINANT O&G PLAYER OF THE CEE REGION 9
Slide 10: Transition Path Based on Resilient MOL Growth Model
TRANSITION PATH BASED ON RESILIENT MOL GROWTH MODEL HIGH-GROWTH AND PROFITABLE CEE CORE OPERATIONS AND INTERNATIONAL E&P ENABLE SMOOTH DIVERSIFICATION AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS E&P UPSTREAM CEE ESG LOW CARBON CIRCULAR Partly satisfies the HC need for E&P Already started low-carbon circular projects Dow
Slide 11: Higher Investment to Shape a Sustainable Tomorrow
HIGHER INVESTMENT TO SHAPE A SUSTAINABLE TOMORROW LOW-CARBON CAPEX TO ACCELERATE AND MOVE BETWEEN 30-40% OF TOTAL CAPEX TO REALISE TRANSITION IN NEXT DECADES 2018-23 Organic CAPEX distribution 2025-30 Organic CAPEX distribution (Since Shape Tomorrow Strategy) (yearly avg., real 2024) (yearly avg., r
Slide 12: 2030 Emission Reduction Target Raised
2030 EMISSION REDUCTION TARGET RAISED LIKE-FOR-LIKE SCOPE 1&2 GHG EMISSION REDUCTION EXPECTATION INCREASED TO 30-35% FROM PREVIOUS TARGET OF 30%; GHG EMISSION TO DECREASE BY 25% IN ABSOLUTE TERMS SCOPE 1&2 GHG EMISSION (Mt) REDUCTION AMBITION HIGHER Like-for-like1 Absolute2 MOL committed to achieve
Slide 13: MOL Group's ESG Targets
MOL GROUP’S ESG TARGETS CLIMATE/GHG TARGETS OTHER Reducing Group-level Scope 1+2 GHG emission by 25% by 2030 Renewable energy consumption to reach 2,500 (from 2019) GWh per year by 2030 CLIMATE & ENVIRONMENT Scope 3 is expected to decrease by 5-10% (from Ambition to reach net carbon neutrality by 20
Slide 14: Downstream
DONWSTREAM b> MOLGROUP
Slide 15: 2050 Vision: Highly Efficient, Sustainable, Chemical-Focused
2050 VISION: HIGHLY EFFICIENT, SUSTAINABLE, CHEMICAL-FOCUSED KEY DIRECTIONS ARE STILL VALID WE HAVE A LONG-TERM VISION TO BECOME A SUSTAINABLE CHEMICALS COMPANY AND POWERING MOBILITY WITH AN AMBITION TO REDUCE CARBON FOOTPRINT AND STRIVING TO REACH NET ZERO EMISSION SUSTAINABLE CHEMICALS WE ARE THE
Slide 16: Key Pillars of Our Strategy Until 2030
KEY PILLARS OF OUR STRATEGY UNTIL 2030 BALANCED FOCUS ON SUPPLY SECURITY AND DIVERSIFICATION FROM FOSSIL • Keep up market share & profitability • Delivering Polyol, our flagship • Speed-up biogas and H2 value-chain • Ensure supply security & harvest project development eastern market potential • Val
Slide 17: Maximising Synergies with Waste Management
MAXIMISING SYNERGIES WITH WASTE MANAGEMENT DOWNSTREAM INCREASINGLY RELIES ON CIRCULAR SOLUTIONS BUT MARKET-BASED SOLUTIONS STILL NEEDED Bio- methane ENERGY RECOVERY Crude ENERGY Biofuel Copro feed Green H2 Waste oil BASE recovery CHEMICAL POLYOLEFIN WASTE/ REFINERY PRODUCTS MOHU PRODUCER PRODUCER Re
Slide 18: Organic Capex Allocation 2025-2030 (Downstream)
ORGANIC CAPEX ALLOCATION 2025-2030 TOTAL ORGANIC CAPEX OF USD 5.3 BN INCLUDING USD 2.5 BN (~ 400 MMUSD/Y) SUSTAIN & LTE1 IN ADDITION TO STRATEGIC CAPEX OF USD 2.8 BN Supply security & flexibility • Crude diversity projects to replace R ussian crude • Logistic investments Waste & chemicals USD 2.8 •
Slide 19: Renewables
RENEWABLES SHAPE TOMORROW > MOLGROUP
Slide 20: Share of Renewables to Grow in MOL Group's Electricity Consumption
SHARE OF RENEWABLES TO GROW IN MOL GROUP'S ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTIONS A mix of own production and market-based solutions needed to maximize EBITDA potential and deploy synergies with MOL Group’s operation Electricity demand of decarbonization of Downstream • Current operation of 44 MW solar production
Slide 21: Waste Management
WASTE MANAGEMENT MOLGROUP
Slide 22: The Concession Covers ~4.5 M Tons of Waste
THE CONCESSION COVERS ~4.5 M TONS OF WASTE MAINLY MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE COMPOSITION OF WASTE BY EU TARGETS FOR RECYCLING TASKS OF THE CONCESSION TO SOURCE AND LANDFILLING BY 2035 IMPROVE EFFICIENCY Making waste collection and transportation 4% 3% tasks more efficient 13% Optimizing the utilization o
Slide 23: Main Success and Development Areas of Waste Management
MAIN SUCCESS AND DEVELOPMENT AREAS OF WASTE MANAGEMENT FOCUSING ON THE START OF THE CONCESSION AND THE MILESTONES AHEAD SETUP SUCCESSFUL CHALLENGES AHEAD The transition to the new system was successfully completed, and it is operating as Stabilizing supply chain operation CONCESSION intended The col
Slide 24: Up to 1.5 Mn Tons of Feedstock for Energy Industry by 2030
UP TO 1.5 MN TONS OF FEEDSTOCK FOR ENERGY INDUSTRY BY 2030 WASTE MANAGEMENT TO BECOME AN ENABLER OF FUTURE GROWTH Used Cooking Oil Collection Plastic Recycling UCOME feedstock to produce biodiesel from used Petchem feedstock from plastic cooking oil recycling recycling Rubber Bitumen Rubber compound
Slide 25: Main Development Projects of Waste Management
MAIN DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS OF WASTE MANAGEMENT ORGANIC INVESTMENTS BETWEEN 2025-2030 Deposit Refund System Waste to Energy plant Waste yards, transfer stations, sorting plants USD 0.9 BN Selective waste bins, containers & RFID system, mobile waste yards Waste collection renewal Low-carbon CAPEX 80+%
Slide 26: Consumer Services
MAA CONSUMER SERVICES
Slide 27: Become a Digitally-Driven Consumer Goods Retailer and Mobility Provider by 2030
BECOME A DIGITALLY-DRIVEN CONSUMER GOODS RETAILER AND INTEGRATED, COMPLEX MOBILITY SERVICE PROVIDER BY 2030 DIRECTIONS SET IN 2021 STRATEGY STILL VALID Regional leader in fuel Continuous improvement Diversification of and convenience retailing of operational efficiency sales channels Expansion and o
Slide 28: CEE Market Leader in Fuel & Convenience Retailing
CEE MARKET LEADER IN FUEL & CONVENIENCE RETAILING EBITDA OF USD 1,000 MN TO BE DELIVERED BY 2030 2025 original goals 2025 revised goals 2030 goals mn EBITDA USD ~700 USD ~730 USD 1,000 mn FCF IN 5 YEARS USD~1,800 USD~2,000 USD~2,900 CONVENIENCE SALES INCREASE 63% 92% 183% FUEL VOLUME INCREASE 42% 40
Slide 29: Organic Capex Allocation 2025-2030 (Consumer Services)
ORGANIC CAPEX ALLOCATION 2025-2030 RETAIL Develop network further to keep ALTERNATIVE FUEL & MOBILITY and improve competitive position Expansion in EV-chargers, fleet and car-sharing Integrate SeSs acquired in 2022-2023 services in line with market growth Continue rollout of Fresh Corner concept USD
Slide 30: Exploration & Production
Peer A A > Tomorrow bMoLeRoUP
Slide 31: Competitive Operation, Diverse Portfolio & Launching of Low Carbon
COMPETITIVE OPERATION, DIVERSE PORTFOLIO & LAUNCHING OF LOW CARBON GUIDANCE FOR 2025-2030 E&PE&P 20302030 PILLARS PILLARS ≥ 90 MBOEPD CEE Optimization & Production guidance Synergies USD~6-8/BOE Unit direct production cost International USD 2bn Organic CAPEX1,2 ≥ 20 USD/BOE Unit Simplified Free Cash
Slide 32: Three Key Pillars of Revised 2030 Strategy
THREE KEY PILLARS OF REVISED 2030 STRATEGY 1 2 3 CEE OPTIMIZATION & INTERNATIONAL LOW CARBON SYNERGIES E&P to support energy E&P to strengthen its E&P to contribute to MOL supply security in the CEE international portfolio: Group decarbonization region by optimization and strategy: ▪ Sustain & devel
Slide 33: E&P Capex Allocation for 2025-2030
E&P CAPEX1 ALLOCATION FOR 2025-2030 CEE OPTIMIZATION & SYNERGIES Maximize the value in operating mature fields Focus on Production Optimization and INTERNATIONAL Enhanced Oil/Gas Recovery programs Maximize the value of existing fields with Cost efficiency and realize synergies in CEE USD stable prof
Slide 34: Low Carbon Focus Areas
LOW CARBON FOCUS AREAS GEOTHERMAL LITHIUM Material electricity generation Lithium extraction pilot Production to support MOL project to be launched in facilities directly or 2024 in Pusztaföldvár contribute to Upstream's hedge function indirectly Examination of novel Direct Lithium Extraction Produc
Slide 35: Financials
FINANCIALS | > SS SHAPE TOMORROW MOLGROUP
Slide 36: Total Organic Capex to Rise to USD ~12 bn in 2025-2030
TOTAL ORGANIC CAPEX TO RISE TO USD ~12 BN IN 2025-2030 HIGH SHARE OF STRATEGIC INVESTMENTS WITHIN THE TOTAL BUDGET ORGANIC CAPEX (2025-30) ORGANIC CAPEX DISTRIBUTION (2025-30) Other1 Sustain Strategic 1.4 E&P 2.0 Waste 0.9 USD 5.1 Renewables 0.7 USD 6.5 11.6 bn 11.6 bn Consumer 1.4 Services 5.3 Down
Slide 37: Fully Funded Transformation and Base Dividends in 2025-30
FULLY FUNDED TRANSFORMATION AND BASE DIVIDENDS IN 2025-30 EVEN AT CONSERVATIVE MACRO ASSUMPTIONS FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK ASSUMING CASH FLOW BREAKEVEN COMMENTS (2025-30, USD BN)1,2 Viable path towards full 16.9 execution of organic investment plan on strategic horizon 6.5 EBITDA to cover must-pay 10.4 ca
Slide 38: Base Dividend Increased by 50% in One Step in 2023
BASE DIVIDEND INCREASED BY 50% IN ONE STEP IN 2023 FOLLOWING SIZEABLE SPECIAL PAYOUTS IN 2018, 19, 22, 23 DIVIDEND PER SHARE1 (HUF) 3.0% 2.9% 4.6% 3.8% 5.5% Dividend 3.5% 3.0% +1.5% +7.7% +7.3% +1.5% yield2 Special dividend Regular dividend 202 202 48 43 152 85 95 95 100 71 78 0 2016 2017 2018 2019
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