Slide 1: Q1 2025 Results Presentation
Q1 2025 Results Presentation May 7, 2025
Slide 2: Forward looking statements
Forward looking statements Forward Looking Statements Certain statements and other information included in this presentation, including under the sections "Financial Guidance" and "Market Outlook", constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looki
Slide 3: Forward Looking Statements (continued)
Forward looking statements Forward Looking Statements (continued) and prices; the supply and demand and price levels for our products; governmental and regulatory requirements and actions by governmental authorities, including changes in government policy (including general or retaliatory tariffs, t
Slide 4: Financial highlights
Financial highlights Q1 2025 Results Q1 2025 Highlights $19M Net Earnings • Weather-related delays impacted Retail sales and margins in the US and Australia. $852M Adjusted EBITDA1 $46M Retail Adjusted EBITDA • Delivered strong potash sales volumes, similar to record in Q1 2024. $446M Potash Adjuste
Slide 5: Strategic focus
Strategic focus Advancing high-return downstream Retail growth opportunities In Q1 2025, we completed two acquisitions in the US, adding high quality assets with a strong strategic fit within our network. Delivering upstream fertilizer sales volume growth Maintained 2025 full-year guidance ranges an
Slide 6: Retail results – Q1 2025
Retail results – Q1 2025 Adjusted EBITDA ($ millions) Variance Highlights Lower Crop Nutrients • Impacted by strategic actions in South America and cold and wet weather in $77 the US $46 Lower Crop Protection Products • Hot and dry conditions in Australia Q1'24 Crop Nutrients Crop Protection Seed Ot
Slide 7: Potash results – Q1 2025
Potash results – Q1 2025 Adjusted EBITDA ($ millions) Variance Highlights $530 Lower Average Net Selling Price • Decline in North American benchmark $446 prices • Partially offset by higher benchmark prices in Brazil and lower Offshore logistics costs Q1'24 Average Net Sales COGS 1 Expenses Q1'25 Se
Slide 8: Nitrogen results – Q1 2025
Nitrogen results – Q1 2025 Adjusted EBITDA ($ millions) Variance Highlights Higher Average Net Selling Price $464 • Stronger benchmark prices $408 Lower Sales Volumes • Lower availability of nitrogen solutions products • Timing of demand for ammonia Q1'24 Average Net Sales COGS 1 Expenses Q1'25 Sell
Slide 9: Financial Guidance
Financial Guidance 9
Slide 10: Financial and Operational Guidance
Financial and Operational Guidance 2025 Annual Guidance1 Ranges as of Ranges as of May 7, 2025 February 19, 2025 (billions of US dollars, except as otherwise noted) Low High Low High Retail adjusted EBITDA 1.65 1.85 1.65 1.85 Potash sales volumes (million tonnes)2 13.6 14.4 13.6 14.4 Nitrogen sales
Slide 11: Retail Adjusted EBITDA, Market Outlook and Assumptions
Retail Adjusted EBITDA, Market Outlook and Assumptions Retail Adjusted EBITDA ($ billions) $2.3 Market Outlook and Assumptions • We expect US crop input demand will be supported by acreage shifts in $1.9 $1.85 2025, with corn planted area expected to increase to ~95M acres and $1.7 soybean plantings
Slide 12: Potash Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions
Potash Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions 2025 Potash Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity1 ($ billions) 4.0 Market Outlook and Assumptions Sensitivity Range 3.5 • Global potash demand remained strong in 2025 and tight supply has supported potash price increases in all key spot markets. 3.0 2.5 • We
Slide 13: Nitrogen Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions
Nitrogen Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions 2025 Nitrogen Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity1 ($ billions) 3.5 Market Outlook and Assumptions Sensitivity Range 3.0 • Global urea supply and demand has tightened in 2025 driven by strong seasonal demand in North America and Europe, combined with Chin
Slide 14: Phosphate Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions
Phosphate Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions 2025 Phosphate Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity1 ($ billions) 0.6 Market Outlook and Assumptions Sensitivity Range • Phosphate markets continue to be tight due to limited supply, including 0.5 ongoing Chinese export restrictions. 0.4 • We anticipate t
Slide 15: Disciplined approach to capital expenditures
Disciplined approach to capital expenditures Capital Expenditures ($ billions) Investing Capital Priorities • Retail: high value proprietary products categories, network $2.6B optimization and digital capabilities $2.2B $2.0B - $2.1B • Potash: mine automation projects that enhance productivity and s
Slide 16: Market Outlook
Market Outlook 16
Slide 17: Global grains stocks/use ratios are historically low
Global grains stocks/use ratios are historically low, providing a supportive environment for ag commodity prices in 2025 Global Grains Ending Stocks & Stocks/Use Ratio1 (ending stocks Mmt) (stocks/use ratio %) 400 Grain Ending Stocks for RoW US Grain Ending Stocks Global Stocks/Use Ratio 20% 350 300
Slide 18: We expect US crop input demand will be supported by acreage shifts in 2025
We expect US crop input demand will be supported by acreage shifts in 2025 Key North American Planted Acreage (millions acres) US Corn US Soybeans US Wheat US Cotton CAN Canola 100 ~95 ~83 80 60 ~45.4 40 ~21.5 20 ~9.9 0 21 22 23 24 25F 21 22 23 24 25F 21 22 23 24 25F 21 22 23 24 25F 21 22 23 24 25F
Slide 19: Prospective 2025 grower margins are in-line with historical average
Prospective 2025 grower margins are in-line with historical average levels and higher than 2024 levels Key Crop Grower Cash Margins1,2,3,4 US Corn Cash Selling Price & Costs1,4,5 (USD/acre, CAD/acre, BRL/hectare) (US$/bushel) US Corn US Soybeans US Wheat US Cotton CAN Canola BRZ Soybeans $7.00 460 4
Slide 20: We expect global potash shipments between 71 and 75 million tonnes in 2025
We expect global potash shipments between 71 and 75 million tonnes in 2025 Potash Demand (millions tonnes KCl) 20 17.5-18.5 16.5-18.0 15 13.0-14.0 9.5-10.5 10.0-10.5 10 5 3.5-4.5 0 21 22 23 24 25F 21 22 23 24 25F 21 22 23 24 25F 21 22 23 24 25F 21 22 23 24 25F 21 22 23 24 25F India Other Asia North
Slide 21: We anticipate limited global capacity additions
We anticipate limited global capacity additions and the potential for supply tightness in 2025 Potash Production in Selected Regions (millions tonnes KCl) 2023 2024E 2025F 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Canada Russia Belarus Europe Middle East China Other 1 1. Includes production from Latin Am
Slide 22: The US nitrogen trade balance has been tight
The US nitrogen trade balance has been tight during the spring application season due to the slow pace of imports Nine-Months Fertilizer Year (Jul-Mar) US Nitrogen Trade Balance (imports less exports)1 (millions of tonnes product) +9% 2.5 2.0 1.5 -56% 1.0 -89% 0.5 0.0 5-year Avg. 2024/25 5-year Avg.
Slide 23: US nitrogen producer inventories were well below average
US nitrogen producer inventories at the end of Q1 2025 were well below average levels US Nitrogen Producer Inventory Levels (March 31 Ending) (millions of tonnes1) 1.6 Ammonia Urea UAN 2020-2024 Avg. 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025E 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025E 2021 2022 2023 2
Slide 24: We expect Chinese fertilizer exports to be lower
We expect Chinese fertilizer exports to be lower compared to the historical average China DAP/MAP Exports China Urea Exports (million tonnes) (million tonnes) 12 6 Urea Annual Exports 11 DAP/MAP Annual Exports 10 5 Urea Q1 Exports DAP/MAP Q1 Exports 9 8 4 7 6 3 5 4 2 3 2 1 1 0 0 2021 2022 2023 2024
Slide 25: Thank You!
Thank You! For more information, please visit: www.nutrien.com facebook.com/nutrienltd linkedin.com/company/nutrien youtube.com/nutrien @nutrienltd