Vistra Corp. · NYSE:VST
Vistra — Q1 2024 Earnings Presentation
32 slides from Vistra's earnings presentation, May 8, 2024
Slide 1: First Quarter 2024 Results
First Quarter 2024 Results May 8, 2024 RESULTS
Slide 2: Safe Harbor Statements
Safe Harbor Statements Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements The information presented herein includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations, esti
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda I. Welcome and Safe Harbor Eric Micek, Vice President of Investor Relations II. Q1 2024 Highlights Jim Burke, President & Chief Executive Officer III. Q1 2024 Finance Update Kris Moldovan, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Vistra Investor Presentation / Q1 2024 3
Slide 4: Q1 2024 Highlights
Q1 2024 Highlights Jim Burke President & Chief Executive Officer VISTRA CORP. 04 Vistra Investor Presentation / Q1 2024 4
Slide 5: Continued Execution Against our Four Strategic Priorities
Continued Execution Against our Four Strategic Priorities Long-Term, Attractive Earnings Significant and Consistent Profile through Integrated Business Shareholder Return of Capital Model Higher expected out-year earnings potential from increased Consistent execution of capital return program with ~
Slide 6: Q1 2024 Results and 2024 Expectations
Q1 2024 Results and 2024 Expectations Q1 2024 Financial Results Initiating Combined 2024 Guidance Ongoing Operations ($ millions) Ongoing Operations ($ millions) Adj. EBITDA1 $813 Adj. EBITDA1 $4,550 - $5,050 Adj. FCFbG1 $2,200 - $2,700 Solid Execution in the First Quarter ✓ Warmest winter on record
Slide 7: New Demand Paradigm in Power Markets
New Demand Paradigm in Power Markets Multiple demand drivers for accelerating load growth projections in the geographic regions we serve US Data Centers1 (GW) Actual and Projected Peak Demand3 (GW) 1 0.9% CAGR ~1.8% CAGR +35 GW PJM 2024 (1.8%) 1 PJM 2023 (0.9%) 1 1 ERCOT Apr. 2024 E 1 Update (50% Re
Slide 8: Higher Earnings Power from Improving Market Dynamics
Higher Earnings Power from Improving Market Dynamics Significant earnings and free cash flow in outer years supported by higher power price forward curves ( h) Ongoing Operations Adj. EBITDA1 ($ millions) 11 ( h) 11 Market power price weighted as TEXAS: 90% North Hub, 10% West Hub; EAST: 50% AD Hub,
Slide 9: Q1 2024 Finance Update
Q1 2024 Finance Update Kris Moldovan Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer VISTRA CORP. 04 Vistra Investor Presentation / Q1 2024 9
Slide 10: Q1 2024 Financial Results
Q1 2024 Financial Results Commercial optimization and fleet flexibility drove strong year-over-year Adj. EBITDA1 improvement Ongoing Operations Adj. EBITDA1,2 Generation2 ($ millions) Q1 2024 is $259 million favorable as compared to Q1 2023, primarily driven by: ✓ Excellent operations leading to str
Slide 11: Raising Energy Harbor Expectations
Raising Energy Harbor Expectations Focused execution as One Team already delivering results ✓ Implementing fleetwide operations with unified approach under the Vistra name Potential annual Adj. EBITDA contribution from Energy Expecting to achieve $150 million recurring annual synergies by YE 2026, ✓
Slide 12: Capital Allocation Update
Capital Allocation Update1 Share • Executed ~$3.9 billion from Nov. 2021 through May 3rd, 2024 Repurchase • Expect to utilize at least $2.25 billion for share repurchases over 2024 and 2025 Program • Share count of ~347.5 million as of May 3, 2024; ~28% reduction since program was announced in Nov.
Slide 13: Appendix
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Slide 14: Corporate Debt Profile
Corporate Debt Profile A strong balance sheet is core to Vistra’s strategy. Accordingly, Vistra remains committed to a long-term net leverage target (excluding non-recourse debt at Vistra Zero) of less than 3x ($ millions) Q1 2024 Funded Revolving Credit Facilities $500 Vistra Operations Term Loan B
Slide 15: Select Debt Balances
Select Debt Balances Funded Debt Tranches As of Mar. 31, 2024 ($ millions) Issuer Series Principal Outstanding Vistra Operations Secured Debt Vistra Operations Senior Secured Term Loan B-3 due December 2030 $2,494 Vistra Operations 4.875% Senior Secured Notes due May 2024 342 Vistra Operations 3.550
Slide 16: Q1 2024 Retail Metrics
Q1 2024 Retail Metrics Highlights Retail Volume All markets (electric volumes in TWh) ✓ Closed the Energy Harbor transaction on March 1, further 26.4 diversifying the Vistra Retail portfolio and bolstering our footprint in 2.9 targeted Ex-ERCOT regions 20.9 2.0 - 1.5 ✓ Continued strong financial per
Slide 17: Q1 2024 Generation Metrics
Q1 2024 Generation Metrics Total Generation Capacity Factor (CCGT) TWhs Q1 2023 Q1 2024 YTD 2023 YTD 2024 % Q1 2023 Q1 2024 YTD 2023 YTD 2024 TEXAS 16.6 18.1 16.6 18.1 TEXAS 35% 44% 35% 44% EAST 14.6 17.1 14.6 17.1 EAST 62% 62% 62% 62% WEST 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.2 WEST 70% 55% 70% 55% SUNSET 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.6
Slide 18: Capital Expenditures
Capital Expenditures Capital Expenditures1 ($ millions) 2023A 2024E 2025E Nuclear & Fossil Maintenance2,3 $730 $822 ~$850 Nuclear Fuel 206 302 ~325 Non-Recurring4 8 - - Solar & Energy Storage Development5 550 745 ~550 Other Growth6 120 74 ~25 Total Capital Expenditures $1,614 $1,943 ~$1,750 Non-Recu
Slide 19: Hedge Profile & Portfolio Sensitivities
Hedge Profile & Portfolio Sensitivities Effective: Mar. 31, 2024 2024 2025 TEXAS WEST EAST SUNSET TOTAL TEXAS WEST EAST SUNSET TOTAL Nuclear/Renewable/Coal Gen Position Expected Generation (TWh) 38 25 20 83 49 32 27 108 % Hedged1 100% 74% 97% 91% 100% 39% 66% 73% Net Position 0 7 1 7 0 20 9 29 Sensi
Slide 20: Market Pricing Effective: Mar. 31, 2024
Market Pricing Effective: Mar. 31, 2024 Apr- Apr- 2025 2026 2025 2026 Dec'24 Dec'24 Power (ATC, $/MWh) Spark Spreads ($/MWh) ERCOT North Hub $50.56 $51.01 $49.53 Approx. Contribution ERCOT West Hub $54.89 $55.76 $53.63 TEXAS PJM AD Hub $38.43 $46.51 $50.05 ERCOT North Hub-Houston Ship Channel 90% $3
Slide 21: Capacity Positions Effective: Mar. 31, 2024
Capacity Positions Effective: Mar. 31, 2024 Segment Market Tenor MW Position Average Price Segment Market Tenor MW Position Average Price PJM1 $/mw-day CAISO RTO 2023/2024 3,585 $35.46 2024 1,790 2024/2025 5,076 $34.29 WEST 2025 1,820 2025/2026 400 $70.40 2026 1,392 ComEd 2023/2024 1,200 $34.63 2027
Slide 22: Asset Fleet Details
Asset Fleet Details Net Capacity Asset Location ISO Technology Primary Fuel (MW)1 Ennis Ennis, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 366 Forney Forney, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,912 Hays San Marcos, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,047 Lamar Paris, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,076 Midlothian Midlothian, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,596 Odessa Odessa, TX E
Slide 23: Asset Fleet Details (continued)
Asset Fleet Details ( ’ ) Net Capacity Asset Location ISO Technology Primary Fuel (MW)1 Independence Oswego, NY NYISO CCGT Gas 1,212 Bellingham Bellingham, MA ISO-NE CCGT Gas 566 Blackstone Blackstone, MA ISO-NE CCGT Gas 544 Casco Bay Veazie, ME ISO-NE CCGT Gas 543 Lake Road Dayville, CT ISO-NE CCGT
Slide 24: Vistra Zero & Sustainability Goals
Vistra Zero & Sustainability Goals VISTRA CORP. 04 Vistra Investor Presentation / Q1 2024 24
Slide 25: Leveraging our existing sites – Vistra Zero Portfolio
Leveraging our existing sites – Vistra Zero Portfolio Disciplined growth of our clean energy portfolio, Vistra Zero, with a focus on diversified generation sources, markets and revenue sources. DeCordova Energy Moss Landing Storage Facility Energy Storage 260 MW/260 MWh Facility 750 MW/3,000 MWh Bat
Slide 26: Vistra Zero Portfolio
Vistra Zero Portfolio Asset Location ISO Capacity (MW)1 Status In-Service Year 2 NUCLEAR 6,448 MW Beaver Valley I & II Shippingport, PA PJM 1,872 Online 1976 / 1987 Davis-Besse Oak Harbor, Ohio PJM 908 Online 1978 Perry Perry, Ohio PJM 1,268 Online 1986 Comanche Peak I & II Glen Rose, TX ERCOT 2,400
Slide 27: Sustainability: Environmental Stewardship
Sustainability: Environmental Stewardship Vistra’s GHG targets emphasize its sustainability transition that balances reliability and affordability of power EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS1 PORTFOLIO TRANSFORMATION2 Scope 1 and Scope 2 GHG Emissions SO2 Emissions ~15,150 MW Zero Carbon Capacity MW (Million mtCO
Slide 28: Sustainability: Social Responsibility & Governance
Sustainability: Social Responsibility & Governance Vistra’s Purpose: Lighting up lives, powering a better way forward PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES GOVERNANCE Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion • Oversight of Vistra’s ESG initiatives is governed by the full Vistra board, with oversight of subject matter-spec
Slide 29: Non-GAAP Reconciliations
Non-GAAP Reconciliations VISTRA CORP. 04 Vistra Investor Presentation / Q1 2024 29
Slide 30: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 1Q 2024 Adjusted EBITDA
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 1Q 2024 Adjusted EBITDA VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS THREE MONTHS ENDED MARCH 31, 2024 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Eliminations Ongoing / Corp and Operations Asset Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Sunset Other Consolidated Closure Consolidated Net incom
Slide 31: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 1Q 2023 Adjusted EBITDA
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 1Q 2023 Adjusted EBITDA VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS THREE MONTHS ENDED MARCH 31, 2023 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Eliminations Ongoing / Corp and Operations Asset Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Sunset Other Consolidated Closure Consolidated Net incom
Slide 32: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2024 Guidance
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2024 Guidance VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS 2024 GUIDANCE1 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Operations Asset Closure Vistra Corp. Consolidated Low High Low High Low High Net Income (loss) $2,030 $2,430 $(90) $(90) $1,940 $2,340 Income tax expense 550 650