Thai Oil Public Co. Ltd. · SET:TOP
Thai Oil Public — Investor Presentation (June 2022)
85 slides from Thai Oil Public's investor presentation, Jun 17, 2022
Slide 1: Presentation to Investors June 2022
Thai Oil Public Company Limited Presentation to Investors June 2022
Slide 2: Disclaimer
-2- Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it. Some statements mad
Slide 3: Presentation Agenda
-3- Presentation Agenda TOP GROUP BUSINESS OVERVIEW KEY HIGHLIGHTS FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS STRATEGIC INVESTMENT PLANS OUTLOOK FINAL REMARKS
Slide 4: TOP Group Business Overview
-4- TOP GROUP BUSINESS OVERVIEW
Slide 5: Strategic Relationship and Operational Integration with PTT
-5- -5- Strategic Relationship and Operational Integration with PTT Thai Oil’s strong shareholder base • Benefits from PTT’s dual role as our major shareholder 10.23% and key business partner • All transactions take place at arm’s length and in * 48.03% 27.71% adherence with strong corporate governa
Slide 6: TOP Group Synergy & Strategic Role in PTT Group Value Chain
6- --6- TOP Group Synergy & Strategic Role in PTT Group Value Chain Upstream Intermediate Downstream Solvent Pentane Hexane Toluene Diversifying to a broad SOLVENTS Mixed-Xylene range of downstream products to enjoy higher Paraxylene The majority of Mixed-Xylene refined petroleum profit margins and
Slide 7: Key Milestones: 60 Years, A Long Track Record of Success
7- --7- Key Milestones: 60 Years, A Long Track Record of Success 1961 – 1997 2004 – 2011 Today Capacity expansion and initial stage of business Listing, expansion and A leading integrated refining and diversification diversification petrochemical group in Asia Pacific 1961 1970 2004 • 275 kbd refine
Slide 8: Thai Oil Group Business Structure
8- Thai Oil Group Business Structure --8- 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Thai Paraxylene Thai Lube Base Thaioil Ethanol Thaioil Treasury Center Thaioil (TOP) TOP SPP (TPX) (TLB) (TET) (TTC) Capacity : Aromatics Capacity: Lube Base Oil Sells Electricity/Steam to 50.0% Enhance financial efficiency
Slide 9: Process Linkage: Beauty of Integration
9- --9- Process Linkage: Beauty of Integration PROCESS FLOWCHART Thai Paraxylene ADIP FUEL GAS Thai Oil ISOM LPG 20,000 MX HDT-1 MX 40,000 HDT-2 HDT-3 CCR-1 CCR-2 ULG95 85,000 CCR CDU-1 50,000 ULG91 45,000 KMT-1 CDU-2 KMT-2 JET 50,000 CDU-3 180,00 KEROSENE 0 HVU-1 HVU-2 FCCU 10,40 HDS-2 HVU-3 HVU-3
Slide 10: One of Region's Leading Refineries
-10- -10- One of Region’s Leading Refineries Total Thailand crude refining capacity 1,244.5 kbd (1) Market shares for refined petroleum product (3) Fang (2.5 kbpd) Thai Oil 22% Share Nameplate Capacity 28% 30% market market Thai Oil (275 kbpd) shares shares PTT’s Principal Refiner BCP (120 kbpd) Ess
Slide 11: Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets
11- --11- Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets Access to Indochina markets through deep Close proximity to the key domestic markets water ports and trucks Our strategic location provide us with 1. Close proximity with the key LAOS domestic markets and Indochina Ban
Slide 12: Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance
Crude & Production -12- Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance Thai Oil is able to diversify its type of crude intake and product outputs to maximize demand and margin Crude Assays based on Sources of Product Reference Domestic demand for TOP configuration* Crude output Price petroleum
Slide 13: Refinery: High & Reliable Utilization to Capture Strong Product Margins
-13- Refinery: High & Reliable Utilization to Capture Strong Product Margins TOP/ Domestic Refinery Utilization Rate Domestic Oil Demand Unit: % Utilization Rate Mar’22 Mogas Jet/Kero Gasoil Total 150% (YoY) -17.9% +42.6% +5.5% +0.3% 109% 109% 107% 100% 98% 101% 100% 92% KBD Q1/21 Q1/22 100% 800 +9.
Slide 14: Key Highlights
-14- KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Slide 15: 2022 – Recovering Fundamental on Return of Petroleum Demand
-15- 2022 – Recovering Fundamental on Return of Petroleum Demand amid Concern over Geopolitical Tension 2022 Key Market Highlight Impact to Oil Price & GRM • Prolonged Russian – Ukraine Conflict Surging Crude Oil Prices on potential supply disruption >> Potential oil & gas supply disruption $/BBL Du
Slide 16: Key Actions to Capitalize on Improving Market Condition
-16- Key Actions to Capitalize on Improving Market Condition Key Business Highlight Operational Commercial Financial • Crude optimization to fulfill strong domestic • Maximize domestic & expand Indochina market • Emphasize financial discipline & prioritize demand 6% 4% investment 25% 1% 11% 8% Other
Slide 17: Extraordinary Effort: 3Vs Strategy
-17- Extraordinary Effort : 3Vs Strategy • Restructure TOP Solvent to be “TOP Next” 1 Value • Integrate & expand sales & marketing and Maximization captures market share in targeted countries Integrated Crude to Chemical 3 Value Diversification CFP • Project ONE: Continue on 4 areas • Progress 82%*
Slide 18: Towards Net Zero
-18- Towards Net Zero Environmental Social Enhance Environment Engage Society Communities & Societies Carbon Net Zero GHG • CSR program supported medical staffs and communities 2050 2060 with hygiene equipment Neutral Emissions Health care • Sustainable energy for health care (solar roof for hospita
Slide 19: On Track to Execute Recapitalization Plan
-19- On Track to Execute Recapitalization Plan BoD Approval for AGM Approval GPSC Share Sale Equity Offering Recapitalization Plan Execution Execution 99.86% for GPSC share sale • GPSC Share Sale GPSC Share Sale Process Public Offering Process 99.99% for capital increase • Equity Offering Q2/2
Slide 20: Financial Highlights
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Tharoll -20-
Slide 21: Q1/22 Key Performance Highlight
-21- Q1/22 Key Performance Highlight Market Highlight Contribution ($/bbl) QoQ Dubai rose from $73.2/bbl to $110.9/bbl Dubai ($/bbl) (ending price) YoY Dubai rose from $64.4/bbl to $110.9/bbl 110.9 • Oil demand recovery on easing concern over COVID-19 boosting economic activities 73.2 64.4 Crude • L
Slide 22: Q1/22 TOP Group Net Profit
-22- Q1/22 TOP Group Net Profit TOP Group Net Profit Net Profit Contributions* Q1/21 Q4/21 Q1/22 Unit : Million Baht (MB) 3,360 MB 5,033 MB 7,183 MB 13% Q4/21 59% 28% 10% 14,472 8% Q1/22 82% 15% 109 Stock g/l 574 34% 4,656 2,709 Q1/21 25% 4,177 Net operating profit 963 2,064 (314) 27% (2,368) (2,609
Slide 23: Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost
-23- Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost Gross Refining Margin Refinery’s Cash Cost (Unit: US$/bbl) (Unit: US$/bbl) Market GRM Accounting GRM (Market GRM + Stock G/L) Operating Cost Interest Expense (net) 22.6 (excl. one-time non-operating item) 8.3 6.9 6.9 6.4 4.7 4.3 5.4 3.3 3.6 2.3 2.4 2.6
Slide 24: Financial Performance
-24- Financial Performance Sales Revenue EBITDA Unit: Million THB Unit: Million THB EBITDA (excl stk G/L) EBITDA (incl stk G/L) 389,344 362,179 335,827 28,142 242,840 22,867 20,239 13,079 114,506 13,214 13,833 13,034 104,298 8,272 73,449 5,343 6,082 3,616 3,373 (2,056) (1,438) 2018 2019 2020 2021 Q1
Slide 25: Q1/22 TOP Group Financial Position & Financial Ratios
-25- Q1/22 TOP Group Financial Position & Financial Ratios Statements of Financial Position Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 31 Mar 22 (Unit: million THB) Total IBD Net Debt 362,144 398,583 188,059 million THB 154,804 million THB Cash & ST 33,255 Trade Payable investment 30,024 80,953 (US$ 5,620 mi
Slide 26: Dividend Payment
-26- Dividend Payment Dividend Policy : Not less than 25% of consolidated net profit after deducting reserves, subject to cash flow and investment plan Unit : THB/share EPSR 2H dividend 1H dividend Year Dividend 12.18 10.40 9.19 9.40 8.66 7.82 7.28 5.91 6.04 5.97 6.17 4.57 4.97 4.39 2.75 3.00 3.75 3
Slide 27: TOP Group Strategic Investment Plan
-27- -27- TOP Group Strategic Investment Plan CAPEX Plan (Unit US$ million) Updated as of April 2022 Estimated Budgeting for Actual Investment Plan Project Q1/22 2022 - 2025 CFP project * 173 1,102 Total Ongoing CAPEX 11 167 Reliability, Efficiency and Flexibility Improvement 2 53 Infrastructure Imp
Slide 28: Strategic Investment Plans
-28- STRATEGIC INVESTMENT PLANS
Slide 29: Thaioil's 2021 Strategic Direction: Building on Our Strong Foundation
-29- Thaioil’s 2021 Strategic Direction : Building on Our Strong Foundation Vision Empowering Human Life through Sustainable Energy and Chemicals To be a competitive Energy & Chemicals company that Strategic Objective delivers sustainable returns & better quality of life to all stakeholders Measurem
Slide 30: 3-Pronged Strategy (3V)
-30- 3-Pronged Strategy (3V) Value Maximization : Value Enhancement : Value Diversification Integrated Crude to Chemicals Integrated Value Chain Management “Know your customers & “Stable Earnings & New S-Curve” “Build on our strong foundation” knowledge-based” • Strengthen core through CFP project •
Slide 31: CFP Rationale & Timeline
-31- CFP Rationale & Timeline Project Rationale • Risk of losing competitiveness to others regional refineries as more new refineries with higher capacity and more advanced technologies are on stream. • Adjust product portfolio by producing high demand and clean product to serve customer needs and c
Slide 32: Scope of CFP & Technical Aspect
-32- Scope of CFP & Technical Aspect LPG Tops ISOM SRU Sulfur 5 HDT-3 Naphtha PX/BZ CCR-1/2 Platformate TPX HDT-4 Hy. Naph CDU-3 4 180 kbd Crude LPG LPG Kerosene Tops KMT-1/2 Lt.Naph 400 kbd Isomerate Gasoline New HDS-2/3 CDU-4 Diesel Jet/Kero 220 kbd HDS-4 Diesel 4 HMU-1/2&PSA-1/3 2 Fuel Oil HCU-1/
Slide 33: CFP Competitiveness
-33- CFP Competitiveness Without CFP With CFP CDU Capacity CDU Capacity 275,000 bbl per day 400,000 bbl per day Upgrading Ratio 28 % Upgrading Ratio 50% (upgrading capacity(1) over CDU capacity) (upgrading capacity(2) over CDU capacity) Power Plant 250 MW Remark : (1) including HCU 1/2, FCCU, TCU (2
Slide 34: CFP Value Proposition
-34- CFP Value Proposition Flexibility of crude intake Product Upgrading Light Distillate 25% (LPG, Light naphtha, Heavy naphtha, Light Crude Gasoline) 40% - 50% (API > 31) 23% 5% - 15% Medium Crude Middle Distillate (25 < API < 31) 62% (Jet , Gasoil) 100% 53% 40% - 50% Heavy Crude (API < 25) 17% Ot
Slide 35: Clean Fuel Project: Re-accelerate the Progress
-35- Clean Fuel Project : Re-accelerate the Progress Overall Project Progress Going Forward in 2022-2023 Project Progress Budget Utilization • Focus on construction at site i.e. 2018 – Q1/22 2018 – Q1/22 equipment and module installation works amid COVID-19 control measures in 2022 • Commence pre-co
Slide 36: Olefins Investment
-36- Olefins Investment Transaction Summary Key Investment Highlight #1 15.38% stake in CAP The Largest & Dominant Indonesia Integrated Petrochemical CAP Strategic Fit A Strategic Producer in Indonesia A Premier Operator Market Investment US$ 1,183 mn • 1st Tranche US$ 913 mn 15.0% • 2nd Tranche US$
Slide 37: Achieving TOP's Strategic Objectives: Integrated Crude to Chemicals
-37- Achieving TOP’s Strategic Objectives: Integrated Crude to Chemicals TOP’s Strategic Direction Strategic Objectives Achieved A jumpstart into Olefins value chain Value Maximization Minimum investment in existing facilities & growth plan Further extend Hydro-Carbon value chain to Olefins PetChem,
Slide 38: CAP2 Expansion is a Transformative Project for CAP
-38- CAP2 Expansion is a Transformative Project for CAP CAP2 Project Overview CAP2 Will Double The Capacity of CAP Approx. USD 5 bn (+/- 30%) new plant to double CAP’s Unit ’000 tons Petrochemical Capacity Flexible Feedstock Configuration Total Capacity +91% From CAP2 8,090 Synergy with Existing Pla
Slide 39: Details of Investment
-39- Details of Investment Use of Proceeds All primary proceeds to CAP will be used for the development and 100% construction of CAP2 Project TOP Investment Barito Pacific SCG Chemicals Free float Indonesia Group Condition Precedents 15.38% 44.58% to 46.29% 30.57% 7.76% to 9.47% All necessary appr
Slide 40: Key Partnership Arrangements
-40- Key Partnership Arrangements LPG, Naphtha Feedstock Commercial Products • PT. Tirta Surya Raya (TSR), Est. 2019 Polymer Products: • TOP’s solvent and chemical distributor PE, PP company in indonesia • TOP holds 77.7% in TSR through TOP Solvent Liquid Products: Thailand Benzene, Toluene, Xylene,
Slide 41: Expected Financial Benefits From the Transaction
-41- Expected Financial Benefits From the Transaction Share of Profit from CAP to Enhance TOP’s Performance Annual Net Income from 2016 to 2020 Quarterly Net Income from Unit: USD mm 2Q2020 to 1Q2021 Higher income stability from more diversified income source n.m. 320 185 Secured Demand 71 84 51
Slide 42: Funding Plan for the Transaction
-42- Funding Plan for the Transaction Uses of Fund Sources of Fund Additional Facility • Strong Support from PTT 15.38% to support TOP long term competitiveness Bridging Loans Recapitalization stake in CAP • Shareholder loan • Extended Trade Credit (ETC) Bank Extended USD Equity Trade Credit 1.183 b
Slide 43: Long-Term Recapitalization Plan and Short-term Liquidity Support
Long-Term Recapitalization Plan and Short-term Liquidity Support Objectives Recapitalization Short-term Liquidity Support Return Optimal Capital Structure With Net D/E ~ 1.0x (1) Sale of up to Maintain Investment Grade 10.8% GPSC Shares(3) Credit Rating in Short-term 90-Day Extended and Credit Ratin
Slide 44: Recapitalization Plan
-44- Recapitalization Plan Recapitalization plan for CAP investment funded by bridging loan, will consist of: 1. GPSC Share Sale at 10.78% or 304,098,630 shares to PTT and/or Siam Management Holdings Company Transaction Limited (“SMH”) (100% subsidiary of PTT) 2. Equity Offering of up to 239.2 mm sh
Slide 45: Recapitalization Plan
-45- Recapitalization Plan Equity Offering GPSC Share Sale Offering Structure Transaction Details 1. Structure • TOP sells GPSC shares 10.78% or 304.1 million shares to PTT and /or 1. Existing shareholders tranche Greenshoe up to 35.9 mm 3 Greenshoe SMH (100% subsidiary of PTT) to eligible domestic
Slide 46: Key Benefits of Recapitalization Plan
-46- Key Benefits of Recapitalization Plan Stronger Financial Position • Maintain optimal capital structure with expected net debt/equity of less than or equal to 1.0x post recapitalization • Maintain investment grade of company credit rating Stronger Financial Position Support Credit Ratings Net De
Slide 47: New S-Curve: Discover New S-Curve and Green Trend
-47- New S-Curve “Discover New S-Curve and Green Trend” ASPIRATION To generate more than 10% of TOP Group net profit in 2030 Strategic Direction Step-out TOP Ventures Green driven New Quick win • Discover new trend via investing in VC and startup • Supporting Core Business , Green • To diversify bus
Slide 48: 2H/22 Outlook
-48- 2H/22 OUTLOOK • Crude Oil • Refinery • Petrochemical • Base Oil & Bitumen
Slide 49: Crude Market Remains Uncertain on Russian Oil Sanction
49-- --49 Crude Market Remains Uncertain on Russian Oil Sanction A Less Short Term Impact on Russian Oil, but Uncertainties Ahead B Potential Supply Replacement from SPR and OPEC/Non-OPEC MBD Russian Crude Oil Export EU Buyers are reluctant 11. SPR Release : totaling 240 MBBL or 1.0-1.3 MBD over A
Slide 50: More Supply from SPR Release and OPEC+ with Limited Spare Capacity
50-- --50 More Supply from SPR Release and OPEC+ with Limited Spare Capacity to Fulfil Higher Demand A Other Supply Can Fill the Gap in case of Russian Supply Disruption B Limited Spare Capacity to Support Price at High Level Russian supply disruption vs. Replacement supply (vs Apr’22) MBD Global Sp
Slide 51: Market Highlight: Low Product Inventory on Strong Demand
51-- --51 Market Highlight : Low Product Inventory on Strong Demand and Lower Supply from Russia and China A Solid Demand Growth to Above 2019 B Limited Supply on Refinery Closure C Less Product Export from China D Russia Concerns & Low Global Stock and Low Refinery Run Global Oil Demand Growth Glob
Slide 52: Unprecedented High Refinery Margin On Tight Supply Across All Barrels
52-- --52 Unprecedented High Refinery Margin On Tight Supply Across All Barrels Singapore Cracking GRM ($/BBL) Avg. 2017: $7.1/BBL Avg. 2018: $5.9/BBL Avg. 2019: $3.7/BBL Avg. 2020: $0.4/BBL Avg. 2021: $3.4/BBL 19.8 8.2 7.1 7.0 8.0 6.4 6.4 7.2 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.1 5.9 3.7 3.8 4.3 3.2 3.5 3.4 1.7 1.2 1.2
Slide 53: Strong Gasoline and Firm Jet/Kero Market
53-- --53 Strong Gasoline from Demand Recovery and Low Stock Firm Jet/Kero Market from Tight Supply and Very Low Inventory Gasoline Market Jet/Kero Market 11. Asian and U.S. Gasoline Demand Continued Recovery 11. Jet Demand Recovery Accelerating Due to Increasing Number of Flights Global Commercial
Slide 54: Firm Gasoil and Fuel Oil Markets
-54- -54- Firm Gasoil Market from Tight Supply and Low Inventory Firm Fuel Oil Market Led by Higher Demand and Limited Supply
Slide 55: Demand Growth to Outpace Refining Capacity Addition
Demand Growth to Outpace Refining Capacity Addition in 2022 & -55- -55- Medium Term Asia Pacific and Middle East Effective CDU Addition VS Additional Demand AP & ME Demand Growth Middle East China Japan India Vietnam Key Projects : New Addition Thailand Philippines New Zealand Country Company CDU (K
Slide 56: Recovering Domestic Demand in 2H/22 on Re-opening Policy
-56- -56- Recovering Domestic Demand in 2H/22 on Re-opening Policy, But Capped by High Oil Price from Russia-Ukraine Situation A Higher Gasoline Demand in 2H/22 B Higher Jet Demand in 2H/22 Gasoline Demand Jet Demand MML/Day Factors +7.9% 2H/22 vs 1H/22: Factors MML/Day 40 YoY +4.1% • Easing entry •
Slide 57: Improving Demand Growth to Limit Further Downside in Aromatics Market
-57- -57- Improving Demand Growth to Limit Further Downside in Aromatics Market A More New Capacity Partially Offset by Run Cut from B Improving Improved Demand market in 2021following Easing due to Less Lockdowns Capacity Addition Existing Players during Lockdowns and Resuming Global Economic Activ
Slide 58: More Olefins Capacity Addition amid Firm Demand Growth
-58- -58- More Olefins Capacity Addition amid Firm Demand Growth A ShortCapacity More Term Support by SM Addition Run from Rate New andStart-up Plant Lower BZ Stock esp. China B Improved More market Capacity in 2021 Addition dueNew from to Less Capacity Plant Start-upAddition esp. China AP/ME HDPE C
Slide 59: Softer Base Oil Market from Higher Refinery Run Rate
-59- -59- Softer Base Oil Market from Higher Refinery Run Rate amid Gr.1 Plant Closure in Asia A Increasing Feedstock Supply from Higher Refinery Run in Asia B Plant Gr.1 Closure in 2H/22 Percent Asian Refinery Run Rate Mil TON AP Base Oil Effective Capacity Addition Hainan Handi 90% (Gr.2, 0.3 MTA)
Slide 60: 2H/2022 Outlook Conclusion
-60- -60- 2H/2022 Outlook Conclusion (vs. 1H/2022) Crude Oil More Supply from SPR Release and OPEC+ with Limited Spare Capacity to Fulfil Higher Demand Refinery Promising Refinery Margin on Strong Demand amid Low Product Inventory, Less Supply from Russia and China Aromatics Improving Demand Growth
Slide 61: Final Remark
-61- FINAL REMARK
Slide 62: Looking Forward
-62- Looking Forward Key Global Market Outlook What’s the Experts say… : Crude Oil Refinery Petrochemical • Oil price boom may peak around 2022-2024 New Golden Age of Refinery (2024-30) • Chemicals players are streamlining their portfolio, due to crude oil supply tightness • Limited supply due to la
Slide 63: Thaioil's Roadmap 2022 - 2030
-63- Thaioil’s Roadmap 2022 - 2030 2022 – 2025 2026– 2030 Building on Our Strong Foundation : IC2C Post CFP : New Round of Growth • Realize strong earnings growth from COVID-19 • Capitalize on/Maximize petroleum profitability industry up-cycle • Ensure CAP2 COD & deliver performance • Ensure CFP COD
Slide 64: Appendix
-64- APPENDIX • Financial Performance • Optimised & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance • World GRM / Inventories • Thailand petroleum demand by products
Slide 65: Refinery: Strong Mkt GRM on Improving Petroleum Demand
Financial Performance -65- Refinery: Strong Mkt GRM on Improving Petroleum Demand Dubai Crude Price & Key Petroleum Product Spreads Refinery Utilization 2021 2022 2021 Q1/21 Q4/21 Q1/22 $/bbl Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2TD* FY 100% 109% 109% DUBAI (DB) 60.0 66.9 71.7 78.3 95.6 104.8 69.2 % MB Intake/ MB-DB ($/
Slide 66: Aromatic: Softening Contribution from Weakening BZ Margin
Financial Performance -66- Aromatic: Softening Contribution from Weakening BZ Margin Aromatic Spreads and Margins Aromatics Production 2021 2022 2021 Q1/21 Q4/21 Q1/22 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2TD* FY 80% 81% 73% PX-ULG95 195 206 212 96 124 46 177 Q1/22 Market Highlight BZ-ULG95 182 313 287 148 110 15
Slide 67: Base Oil: Softening Contribution Pressured by Lower Lube Spread
Financial Performance -67- Base Oil: Softening Contribution Pressured by Lower Lube Spread Base Oil & Bitumen Spreads & Margins Base oil Production 2021 2022 2021 Q1/21 Q4/21 Q1/22 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2TD* FY 93% 88% 89% 500SN-HSFO 783 1,037 896 673 523 544 847 BITUMEN-HSFO 23 7 (43) (29) (81) (17
Slide 68: Power Sector: Lower Contribution to the Group
Financial Performance -68- Power Sector : Lower Contribution to the Group Power Business Sector Equity holding in SPP (4) (5) 74% 100% Power & Steam Sales Electricity(1) 2,544 2,491 2,455 (4) Thaioil Power(TP) completely transferred whole business to be under TOP in Feb’21 (GWh) 1,656 FY/18 FY/19 FY
Slide 69: Olefins Business: Softening Petrochemical Contribution
Financial Performance -69- Olefins Business : Softening Petrochemical Contribution Olefin Product Spreads TOP Investment Indonesia (TII) Performance Polymer Spreads Monomer Spreads Net Profit (million USD) HDPE CFR SEA - NaphJ ($/TON) SM - NaphJ ($/TON) (2.8) (2.1) (2.0) 536 2021 Q4/21 Q1/22 500 588
Slide 70: Q1/22 Performance Breakdown
Financial Performance -70- Q1/22 Performance Breakdown (1) Others & Consolidated Petroleum & Lube Base Petrochemical Power (2) New Business (3) Net Profit Q1/21 1,695 634 594 349 3,360 Q4/21 4,347 (32) 525 246 5,033 Q1/22 6,655 (4) 288 362 7,183 Petroleum Aromatics & LAB TOP SPP Solvent Higher contr
Slide 71: Q1/22 TOP Group Consolidated P&L
Financial Performance -71- Q1/22 TOP Group Consolidated P&L (Unit : million baht) Q4/21 Q1/22 QoQ+/(-) Q1/21 YoY+/(-) (A) Sales Revenue 104,298 114,506 10,208 73,449 41,057 (C) Net Realized G/(L) on Financial Instrument (1,807) (5,727) (3,920) (119) (5,608) (B) (D) EBITDA 6,082 13,034 6,952 8,272 4,
Slide 72: Q1/22 Consolidated Cash Flow
Financial Performance -72- Q1/22 Consolidated Cash Flow (Unit: MB) Q1’21 Q1’22 Represent Operating Cash Flow (CFO) (3,364) 6,260 Q1’21 Q1’22 Net income 3,882 9,004 Investing Cash Flow (CFI) (4,727) (7,156) Depreciation & NRV 1,814 1,833 Dividend income 7 8 Other adj. 2,024 2,095 Sell / (Invest) in a
Slide 73: Q1/22 - Financial Performance
Financial Performance -73- Q1/22 - Financial Performance TOP Group Net Profit Gross Refining Margin - GRM Unit : Million Baht (MB) $/bbl Q1/21 Q4/21 Q1/22 Q1/21 Q4/21 Q1/22 Market GRM 0.7 5.4 6.4 3,360 MB 5,033 MB 7,183 MB 167 Stock 6.2 2.9 16.2 F/X g/l on foreign Gain/(Loss) currency assets & liabi
Slide 74: Asian Margin Vs. US-EU Margin
World GRM -74- -74- Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin $/BBL $/BBL SINGAPORE GRM EU – US Margins 30 70 SING CRACK SING HYDRO BRENT CRACK BRENT HYDRO WTI CRACK 25 60 20 50 15 40 10 30 5 20 0 -5 10 -10 0 -15 -10 MBD U.S. Crude Refinery Input MBD EU 16 Crude Refinery Input Japan Crude Refinery Input Source
Slide 75: Global Crude Oil Inventories
Inventories -75- -75- Global Crude Oil Inventories MBBL U.S. Crude Stocks (excl. SPR) MBBL Crude Oil, Cushing, Oklahoma 600 Source : EIA 80 Source : EIA 550 70 500 60 50 450 40 400 30 350 20 300 10 250 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021
Slide 76: Global Gasoline Inventories
Inventories -76- -76- Global Gasoline Inventories U.S. Gasoline Stocks Singapore Gasoline Stocks MBBL Source : EIA MBBL 280 Source : IE Singapore 260 17 240 220 200 180 7 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021 2022 avg 17-21 5yr-range 2019 20
Slide 77: Global Middle Distillate Inventories
Inventories -77- -77- Global Middle Distillate Inventories U.S. Diesel Stocks Singapore Middle Distillate Stocks MBBL MBBL 200 Source : EIA 20 Source : IE Singapore 180 160 140 10 120 100 80 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021 2022 avg 1
Slide 78: Global Fuel Oil Inventories
Inventories -78- -78- Global Fuel Oil Inventories U.S. Residual Fuel Oil Stocks Singapore Residual Fuel Oil Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : IE Singapore Source : EIA 50 30 40 20 30 20 10 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021 2022 avg 17-21 5yr-ran
Slide 79: China's Refined Product Exports
Inventories -79- -79- China’s Refined Product Exports China’s Gasoline Exports China’s Gasoil Exports KBD KBD Source : China Custom Source : China Custom 600 800 500 700 600 400 500 300 400 200 300 200 100 100 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 2019 2
Slide 80: Domestic LPG Demand
Thailand Petroleum Demand by Products -80- Domestic LPG Demand Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand Highlight KT/Day 2022 2021 2020 2019 • In 2M’22, LPG demand increased by 7.7% YoY mainly following the increase in automobile and petrochemical sectors. LPG 20 demand in the automobile and petrochemical sec
Slide 81: Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand
Thailand Petroleum Demand by Products -81- Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand Thailand Gasoline/Gasohol Demand GASOLINE/GASOHOL Demand Highlight MML/Day • In 3M’22, Gasoline demand was decreased by 5.7% YoY to an 2022 2021 2020 2019 average of 29.3 MML/day and Gasohol demand also 36 decreased by 5.4%
Slide 82: Domestic Jet Demand
Thailand Petroleum Demand by Products -82- Domestic Jet Demand Thailand JET Demand JET Demand Highlight MML/Day 2022 2021 2020 2019 • In 3M’22, Jet consumption increased by 54.7% YoY. The demand 24 was recovered from easing traveling and resuming on Test and Go program since 1 Feb’22, which allowed
Slide 83: Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand
Thailand Petroleum Demand by Products -83- Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand Thailand Gasoil Demand Gasoil Demand Highlight MML/Day 2022 2021 2020 2019 • In 3M’22, Gasoil demand increased by 13.6% YoY. The demand was 80 77.8 supported by the improve of economic activities in Jan’22 and 75.4 74.4 75 Feb
Slide 84: Domestic Fuel Oil Demand
Thailand Petroleum Demand by Products -84- Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Thailand Fuel Oil Demand 2022 2021 2020 2019 Fuel Oil Demand Highlight MML/Day • In 3M’22, Fuel Oil consumption rose by 18.4% YoY, as the 8 6.7 demand in the transportation sector, which accounted for 52.4% 6.3 6.1 of total Fuel Oil
Slide 85: Thank You
-85- -85- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: ir@thaioilgroup.com Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976
Thai Oil Public Company — Investor Presentation (June 2022) on 6ix