Slide 1: Southwestern Public Service Company 2023 New Mexico Integrated Resource Plan
SOUTHWESTERN PUBLIC SERVICE COMPANY 2023 New Mexico Integrated Resource Plan August 29, 2023 © 2023 Xcel Energy 1
Slide 2: IRP Modeling Sensitivities
IRP Modeling Sensitivities © 2023 Xcel Energy 2
Slide 3: Key Modeling Takeaways
Key Modeling Takeaways Sensitivity Analyses • SPS’s sensitivity analyses demonstrates that critical modeling inputs such as transmission network upgrade costs and natural gas & market energy price forecasts can fundamentally change the results of IRP Analyses • The total cost and selected resources
Slide 4: Sensitivity Takeaways: $600/kW Transmission Network Upgrade Costs
Sensitivity Takeaways SPS Sensitivity Analysis – $600/kW Transmission Network Upgrade Costs • Unsurprisingly, the cost of all scenarios increases under a higher transmission network upgrade cost assumption • The increase in costs ranges from $578M to $1.3B, on a PVRR basis • The selected resources f
Slide 5: $600/kW Transmission Network Upgrade Costs: Resources Added 2028-2030
Sensitivity Modeling Takeaways SPS Sensitivity Analysis – $600/kW Transmission Network Upgrade Costs Resources Added 2028-2030 (Nameplate Capacity) PVRR DELTA Dispatchable Variable Energy Resources 2024-2030 2024-2040 2024-2043 Firm NPV $(M) NPV $(M) NPV $(M) Peaking CC Storage Total Wind Solar Tota
Slide 6: $600/kW Transmission Network Upgrade Costs: Resources Added 2028-2040
Sensitivity Modeling Takeaways SPS Sensitivity Analysis – $600/kW Transmission Network Upgrade Costs Resources Added 2028-2040 (Nameplate Capacity) PVRR DELTA Dispatchable Variable Energy Resources 2024-2030 2024-2040 2024-2043 Firm NPV $(M) NPV $(M) NPV $(M) Peaking CC Storage Total Wind Solar Tota
Slide 7: High Natural Gas & Market Energy Prices
Sensitivity Modeling Takeaways SPS Sensitivity Analysis – High Natural Gas & Market Energy Prices • As expected, the cost of all scenarios increases through 2040 • Under the existing technologies case, the total system cost decreases between 2041 and 2043 (compared to the base assumptions), presumab
Slide 8: High Natural Gas & Market Energy Prices: Resources Added 2028-2030
Sensitivity Modeling Takeaways SPS Sensitivity Analysis – High Natural Gas & Market Energy Prices Resources Added 2028-2030 (Nameplate Capacity) PVRR DELTA Dispatchable Variable Energy Resources 2024-2030 2024-2040 2024-2043 Firm NPV $(M) NPV $(M) NPV $(M) Peaking CC Storage Total Wind Solar Total P
Slide 9: High Natural Gas & Market Energy Prices: Resources Added 2028-2040
Sensitivity Modeling Takeaways SPS Sensitivity Analysis – High Natural Gas & Market Energy Prices Resources Added 2028-2040 (Nameplate Capacity) PVRR DELTA Dispatchable Variable Energy Resources 2024-2030 2024-2040 2024-2043 Firm NPV $(M) NPV $(M) NPV $(M) Peaking CC Storage Total Wind Solar Total P
Slide 10: Low Natural Gas & Market Energy Prices
Sensitivity Modeling Takeaways SPS Sensitivity Analysis – Low Natural Gas & Market Energy Prices • As expected, the cost of all scenarios decreases under a low natural gas and market energy price assumption • The decrease in costs ranges from $30M to $378M, on a PVRR basis • Each scenario selects:
Slide 11: Low Natural Gas & Market Energy Prices: Resources Added 2028-2030
Sensitivity Modeling Takeaways SPS Sensitivity Analysis – Low Natural Gas & Market Energy Prices Resources Added 2028-2030 (Nameplate Capacity) PVRR DELTA Dispatchable Variable Energy Resources 2024-2030 2024-2040 2024-2043 Firm NPV $(M) NPV $(M) NPV $(M) Peaking CC Storage Total Wind Solar Total Pl
Slide 12: Low Natural Gas & Market Energy Prices: Resources Added 2028-2040
Sensitivity Modeling Takeaways SPS Sensitivity Analysis – Low Natural Gas & Market Energy Prices Resources Added 2028-2040 (Nameplate Capacity) PVRR DELTA Dispatchable Variable Energy Resources 2024-2030 2024-2040 2024-2043 Firm NPV $(M) NPV $(M) NPV $(M) Peaking CC Storage Total Wind Solar Total Pl
Slide 13: Stakeholder Requests
Stakeholder Requests © 2023 Xcel Energy 13
Slide 14: IRP Stakeholder Requests: Early Compliance
IRP Stakeholder Requests Early Compliance • SPS was requested to evaluate accelerated compliance with the Energy Transition Act including ‘80% carbon‐free resources by 2030 and 95% by 2035 on the pathway to 2040 zero carbon target.’ • SPS was requested to evaluate this case under the ‘long‐duration
Slide 15: IRP Stakeholder Requests: Virtual Power Plant
IRP Stakeholder Requests Virtual Power Plant • SPS evaluated a scenario in which ~5% of SPS’s existing NM residential and small C&I energy sales could be served by 113.3MW of distributed solar and 56.7MW of distributed battery energy storage • As requested, this scenario was compared against the ‘ex
Slide 16: IRP Stakeholder Requests: Dynamic Load Shifting
IRP Stakeholder Requests Dynamic Load Shifting • SPS evaluated a scenario in which ~5% of SPS’s existing NM residential and small C&I can be shifted from ‘net on‐ peak’ to ‘net off‐peak’ • The program was sized at 119.3MW and could be called up once per day, 365 days a year, for a duration of no mor
Slide 17: IRP Stakeholder Requests: Demand Response
IRP Stakeholder Requests Demand Response • SPS evaluated a scenario which included an additional 200MW demand response program • The program was sized at 200MW and could be called upon once per day, 365 days per year, for a duration of no more than 4 hours • The program was evaluated at ‘zero‐cost’
Slide 18: IRP Stakeholder Requests: Increased Hydrogen Blending
IRP Stakeholder Requests Increased Hydrogen Blending • SPS incorporated the following assumptions as part of its own Hydrogen Conversion analysis (conforming with potential EPA requirements): 30% Hydrogen (by volume) by 2032, 96% Hydrogen (by volume) by 2038 • As requested SPS evaluated an increas
Slide 19: Reciprocating Engines – Without Sub-hourly Credit
IRP Stakeholder Requests Reciprocating Engines – Without Sub-hourly Credit • SPS added Reciprocating Engines to the list of resources available for selection • Wartsila provided the cost and technical characteristics for the resources • The program was compared against the ‘Hydrogen Conversion’ case
Slide 20: Reciprocating Engines – With Sub-hourly Credit
IRP Stakeholder Requests Reciprocating Engines – With Sub-hourly Credit • SPS re‐ran the RICE stakeholder request to include a credit for resources with a sub‐hourly start time • The sub‐hourly credit was calculated by Wartsila and was incorporated as a negative fixed cost to BESS, RICE, and CTG A
Slide 21: Questions?
QUESTIONS ? © 2023 Xcel Energy