Cms Energy Corporation · NYSE:CMS
Cms Energy — Goldman Sachs Power & Utility Conference 2015
33 slides from Cms Energy's conference presentation, Aug 11, 2015
Slide 1: Goldman Sachs Power & Utility Conference
Goldman Sachs Power & Utility Conference August 11, 2015 Ludington Pumped Storage Ray Compressor Station Cross Winds Energy Park Fourth largest in the world #1 LDC in gas storage #2 in renewable sales in the Great Lakes area
Slide 2: Forward-looking statements and non-GAAP disclaimer
This presentation is made as of the date hereof and contains “forward-looking statements” as defined in Rule 3b-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, Rule 175 of the Securities Act of 1933, and relevant legal decisions. The forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. All f
Slide 3: Why Invest in CMS Energy?
Why Invest in CMS Energy? Our Growth Engine Supported By (2015-2024 Capex) ● UPSIDES create headroom (Investment, Sales, Cost, & DIG) ● PARTNERS in progress $15.5 Billion (Customers, Regulators, & Policy Makers) a 5% - 7% EPS growth ● PASSION to improve for customers AND owners (Value, Reliability,
Slide 4: Simple, Perhaps Unique CMS Growth Model
Simple, Perhaps Unique CMS Growth Model . . . . Plan Capital investment (drives EPS growth) 5% - 7% - O&M cost reductions -2 pts - Sales growth - ½ - No “block” equity dilution -1 - Surcharges and other -1½ Investment self-funded -5 pts Rate increase at or below inflation <2 % . . . . drives sustain
Slide 5: Investment "Catch-up"
Investment “Catch-up” . . . . Capex (bils) $1.8 One of first with a ten year plan > $1.5 per year “Catch-up” Capex as a Percent of Market Cap a 2005 - 2014 2015 - 2024 CMS Energy CMS 10% 16% Peers Peers 11 15 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Slide 6: Rate Base Growth
Rate Base Growth . . . . 10 Years of Growth Investment Rate Base 2015 - 2024 (bils) Amount $ 20 +6% /year (bils) Gas Infrastructure $ 5.8 18 & Maintenance 16 Electric Reliability 2.3 14 Smart Energy 0.4 12 10 Environmental 0.9 8 New Generation 1.1 6 Depreciation 4 Electric Maintenance 5.0 02 Plan In
Slide 7: Capex Up 45%
Capex Up 45% . . . . 2005-2014 2015-2024 Opportunity $10.7 bil $15.5 bil $20 + bil Opportunity +45% +30% Gas Infrastructure Electric Gas Electric 27% Maintenance Infrastructure Maintenance 37% Electric Environ. Reliability Smart Energy New Generation New Infra Generation Smart Electric Percent of En
Slide 8: Growing the Gas Business
Growing the Gas Business . . . . Capital Investment Gas Service Territory Capex Gas service area (bils) Transmission line Compressor stations $6 $5.8 Freedom Pipeline +100% New Customers Storage fields Replacement Interconnects • 6.3 miles • $185 million capex Infrastructure 4 Pipeline Integrity $2.
Slide 9: O&M Cost Reductions
O&M Cost Reductions . . . . 2006 2014 2018 Down 7% Down 10% or 2%/yr $1.1 bil $1.0 bil $0.9 bil Inflation Inflation ≈2% ≈2% • Coal to Gas Switching (Zeeland) • Coal to Gas Switching (Jackson) • Smarter benefit plans • “Pole Top” Hardening • Productivity/Attrition • Productivity/Smart Energy . . . .
Slide 10: O&M Cost Performance
O&M Cost Performance . . . . Electric Annual Growth O&M Cost Savings (2014 over 2006) 2014 2014 & 2015 2018 (mils) (mils) • Attrition $ - 35 $ - 75 • Productivity (Coal Gas) - 35 - 50 • “Pole Top” Hardening - 30 - 30 • Smart Meters - 5 - 25 Peer Average >5% • Eliminate Waste (UA’s) - 15 - 20 • Morta
Slide 11: Sales Growth
Sales Growth . . . . Our Service Territory Outperforms Annual Electric Sales c a Industrial Total Grand Rapids Michigan U.S 6% Building Permits b +28% +14% +13% GDP 15 11 8 2010 2013 Conservative Population 3 0 2 2011 2014 2% 1% Unemployment 3.7 5.5 5.3 ½% (6/15) 2010-2014 2015 - 2019 Post-Recession
Slide 12: Economic Growth
Economic Growth . . . . Examples of New Business Industries Electric Gas Combination MW Auto 50 Announcement Bayer CropScience Food 15 • One of the world’s leading crop science companies Manufacturing 25 • Secures 70 jobs • $50 million investment Metal 20 Dicastal Durolast Roofing Petroleum 19 Conti
Slide 13: No "Block Equity" Dilution
No “Block Equity” Dilution . . . . Typical utility Model w/o NOLs CMS Model w/ NOLs 6% 6% < 6% < 5% -1% 0 Rate Base Dilution EPS Growth Rate Base Dilution EPS Growth Growth Growth . . . . under CMS growth model. 12
Slide 14: Simple, Perhaps Unique CMS Growth Model
Simple, Perhaps Unique CMS Growth Model . . . . Plan Opportunity Capital investment (drives EPS growth) 5% - 7% 6% - 8% - O&M cost reductions -2 pts Short-term - Sales growth - ½ ROA return - No “block” equity dilution -1 and/or - Surcharges and other -1½ Long-term Investment self-funded -5 pts Repl
Slide 15: PPAs (2,000 MW) Create Unique Opportunity
PPAs (2,000 MW) Create Unique Opportunity for . . . . PPA vs Owned Capacity Opportunity 2,000 MW 30% $2 Bil Investment Amount (mils) PPAs $(650) New Gas Build 650 Annual Customer Impact zero 10% 5% Peers CMS Today CMS Future . . . . more capacity investment, without increasing bills. 14
Slide 16: ROA (800 MW) Creates Unique Opportunity
ROA (800 MW) Creates Unique Opportunity for . . . . Potential Return Opportunity 800 MW • $150 million subsidy “One-Way Door” Decision • 0.02% of customers on ROA (~300 customers) Build • Could lower rates 4% for Decision everyone if all returned • Build new generation capacity, funded by return Tod
Slide 17: Capacity & Energy Price Increases
Capacity & Energy Price Increases . . . . Was Now Future Scenarios (mils) (mils) (mils) New Business + $25 – $50 $65 •Long-term Energy Energy more • 250 MW at $4.00 per kWm (6/14) $55 • 250 MW ≈ $5.75 per kWm (4/15) Capacity $40 •Recent Capacity • Long-term > $3.30 $35 • Near-term ≈ $4.50 $15 Upside
Slide 18: Rate Cases
Rate Cases . . . . Gas (mils) Electric Track Record $21 $85 Date Step Amount (mils) May 2013 Settlement $ 89 $64 2014 Stay out -- June 2015 Self-implement 110 Dec. 2015 Order expected 2½ years Investment Cost of Capital, Filed 7/17 since last order! Upgrades, & Other . . . . fair and timely. 17
Slide 19: Electric Customer Prices
Electric Customer Prices . . . . Residential Bills Industrial Rates 20 % 30 % 26% 20 Rates & Worse 10 Worse Fuel 10 Rates & 4% Act 169 National Avg Midwest Avg 0 0 Flat Residential bills well below U.S. average -10 Policy could (8)% Better -10 (13)% (13)% Better eliminate gap Rates Rates & -20 Rates
Slide 20: Customer Satisfaction
Customer Satisfaction . . . . Electric Gas #3 1st Quartile #4 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 2nd Quartile #9 #6 3rd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile 4th Quartile Present Present 2010 2012 2014 Rank 2016 2010 2012 2014 Rank 2016 Residential Business Residential Business . . . . continues to improve rapi
Slide 21: CMS Energy consistent growth
CMS Energy . . . . +5% to +7% /year 7% CAGR Recession Recession Help Hurt 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Future We work Cold Mild Hot Warm Mild Cold Summer- Hot Hot Warm Mild Polar Cold with anyone winter summer summer winter summer winter “less” summer summer winte
Slide 22: Michigan Energy Law
Michigan Energy Law . . . . Sen. Nofs Gov. Snyder Rep. Nesbitt Keep “cap” Keep “cap” End “ROA” “Retail Open 3-year capacity 5-year capacity Access” requirement, requirement Fully regulated “one way door” “Fair choice” No subsidy No subsidy 1%/yr waste reduction Eliminate 15% Repeal present Efficienc
Slide 23: Constructive Regulation
Constructive Regulation . . . . Commission Tier 1 State Ranking John Quackenbush (R), Chairman 1 6 Michigan Term Ends: July 2, 2017 ranked #1 2 8 Sally Talberg (I) Term Ends: July 2, 2019 3 20 4 9 Norm Saari (R) Term Ends: July 2, 2021 5 6 Newly appointed! Barclays Research, 2015 state rankings . .
Slide 24: CMS Energy Consistent Growth
CMS Energy Consistent Growth . . . . Future Shines Bright Sustainable Future Growth a EPS a +5% to +7% / Past Next 5 $2.50 year Performance Years Investment (bils) $6.4 $7.6 (2010-2014) Capacity Op! +7% /year O&M Reductions (10)% (7)% (2006-2014) Conservative Sales Growth +1% +½ % (2010-2014) Conser
Slide 25: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 26: Clean Power Plan
Clean Power Plan . . . . Lbs CO2 (per MWh) (Preliminary -- Emission Rate) 2500 2300 Consumers Energy 2005 Baseline 2100 1900 1700 Retire 950 MW 1500 coal State of Michigan Target 1300 1100 900 Projected outlook with 20% renewables -- 700 investment not yet in Plan 5000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Slide 27: Capacity Diversity
Capacity Diversity . . . . Nuclear Oil 8% 6% Renewables 9% Coal 34% Pumped Storage 2014 11% Nuclear Gas Nuclear Oil 6% 32% 8% 8% Oil 6% Renewables Purchases 3% 3% Coal 24% Pumped Coal Renewables Storage 41% 10% 11% 2005 2017 Pumped Gas Storage Gas 31% 12% 37% . . . . evolving to cleaner generation w
Slide 28: MISO Zone 7 Capacity
MISO Zone 7 Capacity . . . . 2016 Forecasted Shortfall (MW) Impact Annual MISO Survey June June • New capacity to meet 2014 2015 shortfall not assumed • More upside to $15.5 billion capex plan CMS & DTE Purchase IPPs -1,300 New Build • Creates upside pressure Lower in capacity prices -- Demand DIG o
Slide 29: Generation Strategy: New Supply Sources
Generation Strategy: New Supply Sources . . . . Levelized cost of new build (¢/kWh) New Build 25 Consumers Energy Sources 22¢ 20 15¢ 15 12¢ 11¢ Back 10¢ 10 -up 8¢ 7¢ 6¢ Back 7¢ 6¢ -up 6¢ 9¢ 5.5¢ 5¢ 5¢ 5 Cross Winds 6¢ Big 5 Palisades Zeeland 0 Combined Cycle Gas Plant Wind Coal Nuclear Residential
Slide 30: Operating Cash Flow Growth
Operating Cash Flow Growth . . . . Amount Up $0.6 Billion (bils) Gross operating cash flowa up $0.1 billion per year $2.6 $ 2.6 $2.5 $2.3 $2.2 $2.1 Interest, working 2.1 $1.9 $1.8 capital and taxes 1.6 $1.55 1.1 0.6 Investment 0.1 (0.4) Cash flow before dividend _____ a Non-GAAP (0.9) 2014 2015 2016
Slide 31: O&M "Reinvestment" Helps Customers
O&M “Reinvestment” Helps CUSTOMERS . . . . Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP) 2015 O&M 2016 Reinvestment Savings (mils) (mils) DIG outage $ (8) $10 2014 Forestry (5) 5 17¢ Donations & other (5) 5 Total $(18) $20 13¢ Weather 12¢ Natural Offsets (4) 2015 Cost & Other 5 Flex Items • O&M choices Total 13¢ • Alt. f
Slide 32: GAAP Reconciliation
GAAP Reconciliation
Slide 33: Reconciliation of Gross Operating Cash Flow to GAAP Operating Activities
CMS Energy Reconciliation of Gross Operating Cash Flow to GAAP Operating Activities (unaudited) (mils) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Consumers Operating Income + Depreciation & Amortization $ 1,813 $ 1,920 $ 2,027 $ 2,145 $ 2,266 $ 2,401 $ 2,515 Enterprises Project Cash Flows 20 20 40 58 62 67
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