Slide 1: Cairn Homes plc Preliminary Results
Cairn Homes plc Preliminary Results 29 February 2016 1 © CAIRN HOMES PLC 2016. WWW.CAIRNHOMES.COM
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation document (hereinafter “this document” has been prepared by Cairn Homes Plc (the “Company”). This document has been prepared in good faith, but the information contained in in it has not been subject to a verification exercise. No representation or warranty, express or im
Slide 3: Contents
Contents 1. Strategic Developments 2. Market Opportunity 3. Financial Results 4. Q&A 3 © CAIRN HOMES PLC 2016. WWW.CAIRNHOMES.COM
Slide 4: Strategic Developments
1. Strategic Developments 4 © CAIRN HOMES PLC 2016. WWW.CAIRNHOMES.COM
Slide 5: Key highlights
Key highlights Deployed €554m1 of capital in 9 months since IPO Acquisition of 9 separate sites post IPO (2 sites in 2016) plus Ulster Bank residential land loan portfolio Continued strategic focus on the Greater Dublin Area (“GDA”) (89% of landbank) Total core landbank of 252 sites and 11,2
Slide 6: Geographic overview of core sites
Geographic overview of core sites Note: Project Clear sites represent the collateral security underlying the loans acquired by the Group Note: Project Clear sites represent the collateral security underlying the loans acquired by the Group 6 © CAIRN HOMES PLC 2016. WWW.CAIRNHOMES.COM
Slide 7: Core land bank composition
Core land bank composition (1) Dublin-centric landbank Predominantly new houses (Breakdown by homes) (Breakdown by homes) 11% 26% 16% 1% 74% 71% Dublin Suburbs Dublin City Centre Houses Apartments Dublin Commuter Belt Other Established a balanced land bank with a good mix of immediate, medium and
Slide 8: Current core landbank
Current core landbank Potential Average unit Sites (1) Acres homes (2) site cost (3) Live within the next 7 288 2,945 €69k 12 months (4) Commencement 11 161 2,190 €63k 2017/2018 Medium term target of 1,000 completions per annum Commencement 7 485 6,094 €21k 2019+ Total 25 934 11,229 €42k Notes: 1. I
Slide 9: Live sites within the next 12 months
Live sites within the next 12 months Active Within 12 months Parkside Killiney Rathgar Adamstown Kildare Wicklow Hanover Quay Homes (2) 433 20 238 1,195 483 443 133 1 Parkside Phase 1 is now well advanced – 52 agreed house sales and 22 completed / legally closed Killiney is nearing completio
Slide 10: Case study / Clonburris, Dublin 24
Case study / Clonburris, Dublin 24 Scheme No. of Homes 1 3,500-4,500 Start Date Early 2019 South Dublin Local Authority 10 Year Population Growth 2 43,000 23,500 10 Year Minimum Housing Requirement 3 homes Illustrative Estimates and Targets 4 3-4 Bedroom Houses and 1-3 Bedroom Apartments
Slide 11: Case study / Hanover Quay, Dublin 2
Case study / Hanover Quay, Dublin 2 Scheme No. of Homes 1 120 - 140 Start Date Late 2016 Dublin City Council Local Authority 10 Year Population Growth 2 38,700 30,700 10 Year Minimum Housing Requirement 3 homes Illustrative Estimates and Targets 4 1-3 Bedroom Apartments Assumes 0% HPI an
Slide 12: Case study / Adamstown, Co. Dublin
Case study / Adamstown, Co. Dublin Scheme No. of Homes 1 1,195 Start Date Late 2016 South Dublin Local Authority 10 Year Population Growth 2 43,000 23,500 10 Year Minimum Housing Requirement 3 homes Illustrative Estimates and Targets 4 Mostly 3-4 Bedroom Houses and some 1-3 Bedroom Apartme
Slide 13: Ulster Bank residential land loan portfolio
Ulster Bank residential land loan portfolio Acquired the Ulster Bank residential land loan portfolio in conjunction with Lone Star - One of the largest residential land banks in Ireland Overview - 91% of the portfolio located in Dublin and the GDA - Accounts for c. 20% of the available residential
Slide 14: Capital deployment
Capital deployment Capital raising and deployment timeline (In €m) 2015 2016 15 51 93 150 22 383 429 124 40 4 50 5 74 4 Net IPO proceeds 2015 site Repayment of Debt raise Net placing Other 1 UB residential 2 2016 site 3 Other Remaining funds acquisitions pre-IPO loan and proceeds land loan acquisiti
Slide 15: Parkside update
Parkside update Planning consent for 147 houses with a further 286 houses master-planned 147 houses in construction, 110 houses at or nearing completion Phase 1 launched in September 2015 52 house sales agreed to date 22 legally closed Achieved initial stage completion targets 15 © CAIRN
Slide 16: Market Opportunity
2. Market Opportunity 16 © CAIRN HOMES PLC 2016. WWW.CAIRNHOMES.COM
Slide 17: Helpful Government initiatives
Helpful Government initiatives Measures introduced in November 2015 in an effort to tackle housing crisis Rent certainty In addition to other measures, the legislation will require 24 months between all rent reviews measures This is expected to assist buyers in saving for mortgage deposits R
Slide 18: Market opportunity summary
Market opportunity summary Strong Macro economic trends… …Underpin housing market recovery Ireland continues to be the fastest growing economy in the EU Highly supportive housing demand fundamentals Worsening supply / demand imbalance leading to Domestic demand is key driver of economic growth
Slide 19: Supportive demand side fundamentals
Supportive demand side fundamentals Continued improvement in market Population growth accelerating in our core fundamentals geographic regions 25 20 Market demand fundamentals have improved since IPO GDA & Rest of Ireland (000’s) 20 15 Population growth in Dublin rose by 2.2% in Q3 15 – the 15 S
Slide 20: Demand continues to significantly exceed supply
Demand continues to significantly exceed supply Supply / demand imbalance persists Under-supply driving rental price growth 160 The supply-demand imbalance persists in the Irish Daft.ie National Rental Index housing market 140 Supply Under-supply of housing has resulted in significant Shortfall
Slide 21: Mortgage market environment
Mortgage market environment Mortgage payments as a % of post-tax income Macro-prudential rules are below historic levels 35% Central Bank of Ireland (“CBI”) implemented new macro- Payments/disposable inc. (%) 30% prudential rules in February 2015 25% 20% - Maximum LTV ratios 15% - Loan-to-income c
Slide 22: Residential pricing recovery continues
Residential pricing recovery continues Residential sale prices are growing across the country but remain well below peak …and below other benchmarks 500,000 70% 60% % growth from trough 450,000 50% 40% 30% 400,000 20% 10% (36%) below 0% 350,000 National Dublin "International peak recoveries" - 5 (1)
Slide 23: Financial Results
3. Financial Results 23 © CAIRN HOMES PLC 2016. WWW.CAIRNHOMES.COM
Slide 24: Financial results: Income statement
Financial results: Income statement Profit & Loss statement for the period from 12/11/14 to 31/12/15 Commentary Before exceptional Exceptional Revenue predominantly from the sale of 52 houses on (In €’000, unless otherwise stated) items items Total the Parkside site, of which 11 closed in the peri
Slide 25: Financial results: Cash flow statement
Financial results: Cash flow statement Cash flow statement for the period from 12/11/14 to 31/12/15 Commentary (In €’000, unless otherwise stated) Total Successful IPO on the London Stock Exchange in June Loss for the period (37,208) 2015, raising gross proceeds of in excess of €440m Adjustments f
Slide 26: Financial results: Balance sheet
Financial results: Balance sheet Balance sheet as at 31/12/2015 Commentary (In €’000, unless otherwise stated) Total Inventories represents 7 (1) owned sites that have Property, plant and equipment & intangibles 260 closed as at Balance Sheet date, in addition to working Restricted cash 27,000 cap
Slide 27: Outlook / Conclusion
Outlook / Conclusion €554 million of capital deployed within 9 months of IPO Commence construction on another 5 schemes to add to Parkside and Killiney within 12 months Project Clear loan-to-own strategy Worsening supply / demand imbalance leading to rental growth of 9% Medium-term target
Slide 28: Appendix
Appendix 28 © CAIRN HOMES PLC 2016. WWW.CAIRNHOMES.COM
Slide 29: Supportive macroeconomic trends
Supportive macroeconomic trends Ireland continues to be the fastest growing Unemployment declining ahead of previous economy in the EU forecasts 2016 2017 18.0% 4% 16.0% 3% 14.0% GDP growth (%) 12.0% 2% 10.0% Unemployment (%) 1% 8.0% 0% 6.0% -1% 4.0% Hungary Germany Portugal Sweden Cyprus Romania Po
Slide 30: The Cairn Homes team
The Cairn Homes team Michael Stanley Eamonn O’Kennedy Alan McIntosh Chief Executive Officer, Group Finance Director Founder, Executive Director Founder and Executive Director Long career in finance and a Strong pedigree in home and qualified chartered accountant Long and successful career as a