Mol Hungarian Oil & Gas Plc Class A · BET:MOL
Mol Hungarian Oil & Gas Plc Class A — MOL Group — Q1 2024 Earnings Presentation
43 slides from Mol Hungarian Oil & Gas Plc Class A's earnings presentation, May 10, 2024
Slide 1: First Quarter 2024 Results
FIRST QUARTER 2024 RESULTS 10 MAY 2024
Slide 2: Disclaimer
DISCLAIMER "THIS PRESENTATION AND THE ASSOCIATED SLIDES AND DISCUSSION CONTAIN FORWARD -LOOKING STATEMENTS. THESE STATEMENTS ARE NATURALLY SUBJECT TO UNCERTAINTY AND CHANGES IN CIRCUMSTANCES. THOSE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS MAY INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO, THOSE REGARDING CAPITAL EMPLOYED, CAPI
Slide 3: Highlights of the Quarter
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE QUARTER
Slide 4: 2024 Guidance Reiterated
2024 GUIDANCE REITERATED Q1 2023 Q1 2024 2024 RESULTS RESULTS GUIDANCE GROUP PROFIT BEFORE USD 541 MN USD 382 MN ~USD 1.6 BN TAX GROUP CLEAN CCS USD 714 MN USD 718 MN ~USD 3.0 BN EBITDA OIL & GAS 95.9 MBOEPD 92.3 MBOEPD ~90 MBOEPD PRODUCTION1 CRUDE PROCESSING2 2.90 MT 2.82 MT ~12 MT GROUP CAPEX USD
Slide 5: Q1 2024 Clean CCS EBITDA 28% Lower Q-o-Q
Q1 2024 CLEAN CCS EBITDA 28% LOWER Q-O-Q TURNAROUNDS IN DOWNSTREAM AND CONTINUED GOVERNMENT LEVIES WEIGHED ON RESULTS FINANCIALS MOL Group Profit before tax reached USD 382 mn in Q1 2024, 18% and 29% lower Q-o-Q and Y-o-Y, respectively Clean CCS EBITDA increased by 1% Y-o-Y and decreased by 28% Q-o-
Slide 6: Q1 TRIR 7% Above Guidance
Q1 TRIR 7% ABOVE GUIDANCE ECOVADIS SCORES SHOW IMPROVEMENT IN KEY AREAS TOTAL RECORDABLE INJURY RATE (TRIR) TRIR RESULTS Slightly increased number of smaller injuries (+7 cases compared +6% to Q1 2023), mainly in case of contractors, due to extensive 21% maintenance and additional contracted activit
Slide 7: Key Group Quarterly Financials
KEY GROUP QUARTERLY FINANCIALS
Slide 8: Q1 2024 Clean CCS EBITDA Flat Year-on-Year
Q1 2024 CLEAN CCS EBITDA FLAT YEAR-ON-YEAR SEGMENT LEVEL BREAKDOWN IS ALSO SIMILAR TO Q1 2023 SEGMENT CLEAN CCS EBITDA (USD mn) COMMENTS Upstream +1% -28% 1,075 993 Gas price weakness weighed on results with healthy volumes above 976 90 mboepd guidance Downstream 714 375 718 Despite higher margins i
Slide 9: Capex Low at Start of the Year but Up Year-on-Year
CAPEX LOW AT START OF THE YEAR BUT UP YEAR-ON-YEAR USD 1.7BN GUIDANCE REITERATED TOTAL GROUP CAPEX (USD mn) TOTAL GROUP CAPEX (USD mn) 1,014 1,014 +62% -47% +62% -47% 614 605 614 605 0 0 113 337 350 350 320 320 282 422 14 486 3 3 197 72 197 1 1 197 267 232 78 4 82 185 1 78 15 19 162 134 21 108 19 23
Slide 10: Q1 Profit Before Tax on Track to Reach 1.6bn 2024 Target
Q1 PROFIT BEFORE TAX ON TRACK TO REACH 1.6BN 2024 TARGET Q1 2024 EARNINGS (USD mn) – BELOW THE EBITDA LINE ITEMS 718 Other 7 0 20 Consumer Services 144 291 Downstream 293 43 5 711 103 14 420 382 Upstream 262 265 Clean CCS CCS EBITDA excl. Special items DD&A and Profit from Total finance Income from
Slide 11: Net Financial Loss of USD 43mn Due to HUF Weakening
NET FINANCIAL LOSS OF USD 43MN DUE TO HUF WEAKENING CCS effect, gain / loss (USD mn) Comments -120% 37 CCS modification not material due to relatively stable -7 -100 crude prices Q1 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 DD&A (USD mn) +9% -42% Y-o-Y growth in DD&A in line with higher asset base 499 268 291 Q1 2023 Q4
Slide 12: Income Tax Lower on the Back of Lower Deferred Expense
INCOME TAX LOWER ON THE BACK OF LOWER DEFERRED EXPENSE Income tax expenses (USD mn) Comments Deferred -30 27 -4 tax: 2% -24% Income tax lower q-o-q due to lower deferred tax expenses 101 136 103 Q1 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Intersegment EBITDA (USD mn) -1 EBITDA elimination at low negative level in Q1 -1
Slide 13: Operating Cash Flow Below Investments
OPERATING CASH FLOW BELOW INVESTMENTS WORKING CAPITAL BUILD SEASONALLY HIGH, WEIGHING ON OPERATING CASH FLOW OPERATING CASH FLOW FOR TOTAL OPERATION IN Q1 2024 (USD mn) 629 114 67 291 Discontinued Operation (UK) 349 384 2 317 280 Continuing operation 382 Profit Before Tax DD&A Income tax paid Other
Slide 14: Net Debt to EBITDA Slightly Up to 0.64x
NET DEBT TO EBITDA SLIGHTLY UP TO 0.64X INDEBTEDNESS SAFELY BELOW TOLERANCE THRESHOLD NET DEBT TO EBITDA (x) GEARING (%) 2.0 30 27.3 25.2 1.61 25 1.5 20.6 1.31 19.6 20 18.6 18.1 17.5 0.97 14.0 14.2 1.0 15 0.82 12.0 0.74 11.4 0.65 0.65 0.64 0.59 10 0.5 0.41 0.30 5 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Slide 15: Downstream Q1 2024 Results
DOWNSTREAM Q1 2024 RESULTS
Slide 16: Flat Downstream EBITDA YoY in Q1 2024
FLAT DOWNSTREAM EBITDA YOY IN Q1 2024 DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOWER VOLUMES, HIGHER MARGINS AND CHANGE IN GOVERNMENT TAKE QUARTERLY CLEAN CCS EBITDA (USD mn) TOTAL CRUDE PROCESSED (kt)1 TOTAL PRODUCT SALES (kt) -2% -36% +2% -13% 469 456 5,382 -3% -6% 4,601 4,752 4,762 384 299 4,061 277 4,123 293 3,1
Slide 17: Refining Margin Bounced Back in Q1 2024
REFINING MARGIN BOUNCED BACK IN Q1 2024 PETCHEM MARGIN RECOVERY SLOW BUT ONGOING REFINING MARGIN (USD/bbl) COMMENTS Brent-based MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) (Ex-Ural) refining margins bounced back in Q1 2024 due to lower energy Brent-based Complex refinery margin (MOL+Slovnaft) (USD/bbl) and
Slide 18: DS Contribution Remained Flat YoY
DS CONTRIBUTION REMAINED FLAT YOY HEALTHY FUNDAMENTALS PARTIALLY SPOILED BY GOVERNMENT TAKE EFFECTS DOWNSTREAM CLEAN CCS EBITDA YoY, Q1 2023 VS. Q1 2024 (USD mn) COMMENTS 299 R&M price & margin effect negative Y-o-Y due a 25 293 combination of a lower B-U spread, lower B-U tax and 59 higher Brent-ba
Slide 19: Consumer Services Q1 2024 Results
CONSUMER SERVICES Q1 2024 RESULTS
Slide 20: CS Q1 EBITDA Marked 13% Growth Y-o-Y
CS Q1 EBITDA MARKED 13% GROWTH Y-O-Y GAIN ON REMEDY SALES OF FUEL STATIONS SUPPORTED RESULTS QUARTERLY EBITDA (USD mn) EBITDA YoY, Q1 2024 VS. Q1 2023 (USD mn) 13% +14% 144 144 21 0 30 19 127 8 250 175 127 144 144 89 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 KEY FINANCIALS (USD mn) USD mn Q4 2
Slide 21: Q1 2024 Fuel Sales Volume Increased by 6% Y-o-Y
Q1 2024 FUEL SALES VOLUME INCREASED BY 6% Y-O-Y UNIT FUEL MARGIN DROPPED YEAR-OVER-YEAR TOTAL VOLUMES SOLD (mn litres) FUEL THROUGHPUT/SITE1 (mn litres) 5% +6% 4Y CAGR: +4.22% 0.79 0.83 2 306 0.79 1 991 0.70 1 969 0.65 1 810 1 706 1 817 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q1 2020 Q1 2021
Slide 22: Non-Fuel Margin Dynamics Continues to Be Strong
NON-FUEL MARGIN DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO BE STRONG NON-FUEL MARGIN SHARE INCREASED FROM ALREADY HIGH BASE TO 36.9% NON-FUEL MARGIN (USD MN – CONST. FX) TOTAL NON-FUEL TURNOVER (USD MN – CONST. FX) +21% +16% 158.8 546.1 122.8 128.2 436.3 455.7 444.8 118.8 382.2 97.0 98.0 357.9 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3
Slide 23: Upstream Q1 2024 Results
UPSTREAM Q1 2024 RESULTS
Slide 24: E&P EBITDA Reached USD 262 mn in Q1 2024
E&P EBITDA REACHED USD 262 MN IN Q1 2024 WEAKER GAS PRICE AND EXTRA TAX INCIDENCE WEIGHED ON RESULTS QUARTERLY EBITDA (excl. special items) (USD mn) OIL PRICES 140 134.0 120 107.5 113.9 100.8 -8% -30% 100 79.8 97.1 102.488.9 81.2 86.8 84.3 83.2 80 103.9 77.8 61.1 81.8 74.4 78.1 76.3 75.1 76.0 81.4 6
Slide 25: Unit Free Cash Flow at 24 USD/boe in Q1 2024
UNIT FREE CASH FLOW AT 24 USD/BBL IN Q1 2024 RESULTING IN A QUARTERLY USD 190 MN SFCF GENERATION QUARTERLY PRICE REALIZATION, EBITDA, SFCF (USD/boe) 110 102 100 90 87 84 81 83 78 80 89 70 68 60 62 78 Brent 50 62 67 49 40 67 Realised HC price 36 34 30 28 20 44 Unit EBITDA 15 33 25 24 10 15 Unit FCF*
Slide 26: Gas Price and Change in Regulation Drove Results
GAS PRICE AND CHANGE IN REGULATION DROVE RESULTS UPSTREAM EBITDA QoQ, Q4 2023 VS. Q1 2024 (USD mn) COMMENTS 1 Lower gas prices and royalty reversal effect in -101 Q4 2023 weighed on price component q-o-q +2 -4 +5 -15 -1 Production slightly higher q-o-q 374 375 Other item driven by revenue-based extr
Slide 27: Production Above 2024 Guidance of 90 mboepd
PRODUCTION ABOVE 2024 GUIDANCE OF 90 MBOEPD THANKS TO HIGHER INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION IN KRI AND KAZAKHSTAN PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY (mboepd) COMMENTS 95.9 90.9 91.5 92.3 90.8 Associated 10.8 87.3 86.8 companies* 9.1 9.6 11.4 2.2 9.2 Production totalling 92.3 mboepd in Q1 2024, up 0.8 Other 2.2 4.6 10.
Slide 28: Marginal Increase in Group Unit Opex YoY
MARGINAL INCREASE IN GROUP UNIT OPEX YOY CAPEX DOWN MAINLY DUE TO LOWER EXPENDITURE IN KURDISTAN UNIT OPEX (USD/boe) UNIT OPEX YTD (USD/boe) GROUP FULLY CONSOLIDATED 7.5 +2% (INCL. JVS/ASSOC.) SUBS. -1% 7.0 7.2 +2% 6.5 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.7 6.0 5.9 5.8 6.3 6.2 5.5 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.1 5.5 5
Slide 29: Circular Economy Services Q1 2024 Results
CIRCULAR ECONOMY SERVICES Q1 2024 RESULTS
Slide 30: Circular Economy Services – The New Segment of MOL Group
CIRCULAR ECONOMY SERVICES – THE NEW SEGMENT OF MOL GROUP 2024 CAPEX PROJECTS AIMING INTENSIFICATION OF SELECTIVE WASTE COLLECTION QUARTERLY EBITDA1 (USD mn) COMMENTS Q1 EBITDA down at USD 10 mn loss due to one-off accounting of USD 30mn driven by lower than expected EPR revenue realization since inc
Slide 31: Supporting Slides
SUPPORTING SLIDES
Slide 32: SFCF 22% Lower Y-o-Y Due to Continued Normalization
SFCF 22% LOWER Y-O-Y DUE TO CONTINUED NORMALIZATION SIMPLIFIED FCF* (USD mn) -22% +4% 639 518 520 387 206 402 262 190 221 107 174 134 121 106 62 75 79 33 -29 -90 -142 -65 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 US CS GM 32 *Simplified Free Cash Flow = Clean CCS EBITDA – total organic CAPEX D
Slide 33: Working Interest Based Production Slightly Increased QoQ
WORKING INTEREST BASED PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY INCREASED QOQ QUARTERLY WORKING INTEREST PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY* (mboepd) 129.3 130.4 117.4 117.5 122.0 122.9 Associated 15.5 17.2 15.7 17.0 16.0 17.3 companies* Other 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.3 0.1 3.8 4.1 KRI 7.8 5.9 2.8 4.8 8.6 6.4 Pakistan 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.1 34.9
Slide 34: Upstream: Operational Update (1)
UPSTREAM: OPERATIONAL UPDATE (1) Hungary Croatia EXPLORATION EXPLORATION Vecsés-1 well was drilled and completed, evaluation is in progress Block Sava-07: acquisition of 40% of non-operated Working interest from FIELD DEVELOPMENT Vermilion; 2 wells have been drilled and 1 well drilling started in Ma
Slide 35: Upstream: Operational Update (2)
UPSTREAM: OPERATIONAL UPDATE (2) Pakistan Russia EXPLORATION 2024 well workover program: 5 workovers performed TAL block (Operated): Razgir-1 well drilling is in progress Construction work program: modernization of oil treatment plant is in progress FIELD DEVELOPMENT Makori East Secondary Compressio
Slide 36: Upstream Capex by Region and by Type in Q1 2024
UPSTREAM CAPEX BY REGION AND BY TYPE IN Q1 2024 ORGANIC CAPEX BY REGION AND BY TYPE (USD mn) HUN CRO KRI PAK AZE OTHER Total – Q1 2024 Total – Q1 2023 EXP 5.0 4.6 0.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 10.7 12.4 DEV 10.2 4.6 -0.2 2.0 32.0 2.7 51.2 59.4 Other 1.0 8.0 0.6 0.0 0.8 0.0 10.4 5.8 Total – Q1 2024 16.2 17.1 0.3 2
Slide 37: Gas Midstream: Key Financials
GAS MIDSTREAM: KEY FINANCIALS EBITDA (USD mn) CAPEX (USD mn) 0% +52% 19 79 79 74 61 60 13 52 7 5 4 1 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 KEY FINANCIALS (USD mn) COMMENTS Q1 2024 Q1 2023 YoYCh % EBITDA remained stable on YoY basis exceeding
Slide 38: Sustainability Indicators
SUSTAINABILITY INDICATORS CO2 under ETS (mn t) HC Spill above 1bbl (m3) Tier1 PSE -100% 0% 4 2.0 -90% 4 1.47 1.52 200 3 1.40 1.41 1.40 159.2 1.5 3 1.0 71.8 2 1 1 0.5 50 22.6 16.4 1 13.3 0 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023
Slide 39: Macro Indicators
MACRO INDICATORS BRENT (USD/bbl) MOL REFINERY MARGIN* (USD/bbl) HUF/USD (Q avg.) 120 20 450 Brent-based MOL Group 100 15 400 Brent-based Complex (MOL+Slovnaft) 80 350 10 60 300 40 5 250 20 0 200 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
Slide 40: Consolidated Statement of Profit or Loss
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF PROFIT OR LOSS YoY Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q1 2023 Income Statement (HUF mn) FY 2023 Ch % 2,333,273 2,046,208 2,046,546 0 Net sales 8,908,499 18,914 29,003 17,773 63 Other operating income 57,537 2,352,187 2,075,211 2,064,319 1 Total operating income 8,966,036 1,792,360 1,636,375 1
Slide 41: Consolidated Statement of Financial Position
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION Balance Sheet (HUF mn) 31 Mar 2024 31 Dec 2023 Ch % Balance Sheet (HUF mn) 31 Mar 2024 31 Dec 2023 Ch % Assets Equity and Liabilities Non-current assets Equity Property, plant and equipment 4,128,805 3,997,801 3 Share capital 79,416 79,192 0 Investment pr
Slide 42: Consolidated Statement of Cash Flow
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CASH FLOW YoY Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q1 2023 Cash Flow (HUF mn) FY 2023 Ch % 169,950 137,911 196,330 (30) Profit / (loss) before tax for continuing operation 691,418 (2,740) 674 771 (13) Profit / (loss) before tax for discontinued operation (449) 167,210 138,585 197,101 (30) Profi
Slide 43: External Parameters
EXTERNAL PARAMETERS YoY Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q1 2023 Macro figures (average) FY 2023 Ch % 84.3 83.2 81.2 2 Brent dated (USD/bbl) 82.6 (9.8) (12.9) (32.5) (60) Urals-Brent spread (USD/bbl, Europe quotation) (19.2) (4.3) (3.7) (17.6) (79) Urals-Brent spread (USD/bbl, DAP India Urals quotation) (10.0) 43.0