Slide 1: Nutrien Q2 2021 Results Presentation
Nutrien Q2 2021 Results Presentation August 9, 2021 1 Source
Slide 2: Forward Looking Statements
Forward Looking Statements 2 Certain statements and other information included in this presentation, including within “Outlook and Guidance” constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looking statements") under applicable securities laws (such st
Slide 3: Nutrien's Strong Track Record of Executing
Nutrien’s Strong Track Record of Executing 3 Nutrien is taking decisive actions to grow and deliver results, and leverage our integrated & advantaged business model Growing Delivering Results • Leveraging a flexible low-cost potash • Strong asset utilization and marketing • Raised FY 2021 adjusted E
Slide 4: Financial and Strategic Highlights
Financial and Strategic Highlights 4 Adjusted EBITDA ($B) Adjusted Net EPS Free Cash Flow ($B) Current Annualized Q2’21 1H’21 Q2’21 1H’21 1H’21 Dividend per Share $ 22 . $ 30 . 2 08 $2 37 $ . . $ 19 . $1 84 . Nutrien’s Dividend Has +29% +36% +43% +80% +40% Been Increased Three Times Since 2018 “The
Slide 5: Executing On Our Operational Targets
Executing On Our Operational Targets 5 2019 2020 Q2 2021 YTD 2023 Actual Results Actual Results Actual Results Targets Retail Business Targets - Rolling four quarters Total Retail Adjusted EBITDA Margin 9.3% 9.7% 10.5% >10.5% US Retail Adjusted EBITDA Margin1 9.7% 10.6% 11.5% - Adjusted Average Work
Slide 6: Nutrien Adjusted EBITDA
Nutrien Adjusted EBITDA 6 Nutrien showcased its unique competitive advantages, strong operating performance and the significant leverage to higher fertilizer prices as we focused on our purpose to help growers meet the ever-growing demand for increased food production in a sustainable manner Second
Slide 7: Retail Q2'21 Results
7 Gross margin increased in Q2’21 and 1H’21 primarily from to higher crop nutrient prices, supported in part by strategic procurement in a rising price environment, as well as record first half crop nutrient sales volumes Retail +11% Revenues Q2’21 Results -% Crop Nutrients Sales Volumes Proportion
Slide 8: Retail Continues to Deliver Growth
Retail Continues to Deliver Growth 8 Strong organic growth, accretive acquisitions and cost efficiency initiatives have grown Retail Adjusted EBITDA 2019 2020 Q1’21 Q2’21 1 US Retail Adjusted EBITDA Margin2 9.7% 10.6% 11.2% 11.5% $1.6B-$1.7B 11% Total Retail Adjusted EBITDA Margin3 9.3% 9.7% 10.1% 1
Slide 9: Retail Performance Highlights
Retail Performance Highlights 9 Continued expansion in the adoption and utilization of our digital platform combined with strong organic growth & operational improvements Digital Platform Results Proportion of Sales1,2 Sales1 Percent US$ Millions 25% 19% 18% Retail Adjusted $1,570 Average Working 12
Slide 10: Potash Results: Q2 2021
Potash Results: Q2 2021 10 Gross Margin US$ Millions $500 Higher North American and Offshore net realized selling prices drove the increase in gross margin year-over- $278 year, supported by high crop prices and good potash affordability 1 Q2'20 Net Selling Price Volumes COGS D&A in Q2'21 Gross Marg
Slide 11: Potash Results: 1H 2021
Potash Results: 1H 2021 11 Gross Margin US$ Millions Strong global demand supported higher $820 net realized selling prices in both North American and Offshore markets and record total sales volumes $530 1 1H'20 Net Selling Price Volumes COGS D&A in 1H'21 Gross Margin excl. D&A COGS Gross Margin Adj
Slide 12: Nutrien's Leading Potash Network Stepping Up in 2021
Nutrien’s Leading Potash Network Stepping Up in 2021 12 Nutrien expects to increase potash production by 1Mmt to backfill supply interruptions and service the strong global demand in support of our grower customers around the world Potash Industry Scale & Growth Optionality Potash Shipment Growth Nu
Slide 13: Nitrogen Results: Q2 2021
Nitrogen Results: Q2 2021 13 Gross Margin • Strong global agriculture US$ Millions markets and a recovery in industrial demand drove higher net realized selling prices $416 • COGS/mt increased due to higher natural gas costs, a stronger Canadian dollar, and lower nitrogen production $208 1 Q2'20 Net
Slide 14: Nitrogen Results: 1H 2021
Nitrogen Results: 1H 2021 14 Gross Margin • Strong global agriculture US$ Millions markets and a recovery in industrial demand drove higher net realized selling prices $566 • COGS/mt increased due to higher natural gas costs, a stronger Canadian dollar, and lower nitrogen production $305 1 1H'20 Net
Slide 15: Outlook & Guidance
Nutrien Feeding the Future~
Slide 16: Crop Prices Trends
Crop Prices Trends 16 Historically low global stocks-to-use ratios driven by strong Chinese demand and tight supply availability have driven crop prices higher US Corn US Soybean US Wheat US Cotton Palm Oil Brazil Soybean (US$/Bushel) (US$/Bushel) (US$/Bushel) (US$/lb) (MYR/Tonne) (Real/60kg bag) +5
Slide 17: Historically High Prospective Margins
Historically High Prospective Margins 17 Futures prices point to the highest corn and soybean margins since the 2011-2013 crop years. Rising fertilizer prices have little impact on overall per bushel margins versus crop prices US Corn Grower Cash Selling Price & Cost US Soybean Grower Cash Selling P
Slide 18: Crop Input Expenditures
Crop Input Expenditures 18 Significant increases in crop input expenditures are expected in key markets in the 2021/2022 crop year supported by increased US acreage, improved soil moisture in Australia and recoup of Brazilian FX losses from 2020 US W Canada 7%-9% Robust crop input 4% 4%-6% expenditu
Slide 19: US Crop Conditions
US Crop Conditions 19 US corn & soybean conditions are slightly below average, while spring wheat conditions are the lowest in >20 years which may limit yield potential US Crop Condition Indices Index1 Corn Soybeans Spring Wheat 100% 100% 100% Maximum Maximum Maximum 90% 90% 90% 80% 80% 80% 70% 70%
Slide 20: US Corn & Soybean Export Sales
US Corn & Soybean Export Sales 20 US corn and soybean new crop export sales are well above average as Chinese demand has remained historically strong US Corn Export Sales1 for the Next Marketing Year US Soybean Export Sales1 for the Next Marketing Year Million Tonnes Million Tonnes 20 35 2018/19 201
Slide 21: North American Drought Conditions
North American Drought Conditions 21 Drought remains a concern this growing season impacting crop conditions in the US West, US Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies but favorable in US South and US East regions Canada Drought Monitor As of July 31, 2021 August 9, 2021 Source: USDA, NDMC, NOAA, US D
Slide 22: US Crop Stocks-to-Use Ratios
US Crop Stocks-to-Use Ratios 22 US corn and soybean supply has tightened significantly, resulting in the lowest stocks-to-use ratios in over 7 years for 2020/2021E. Supply & demand fundamentals are fragile, and are expected to be tight into the next marketing year US Corn Ending Stocks & Stock/Use R
Slide 23: Brazil Ag Fundamentals
Brazil Ag Fundamentals 23 Record soybean and corn prices are expected to support increased soybean acreage in the 2021 planting season (late Q3); Safrinha corn yield potential in 2021 has declined due to drought and frost Mato Grosso Cash Soybean & Corn Prices Brazilian Soybean and Corn Area and Pro
Slide 24: Australian Growers are Expanding Area in 2021
Australian Growers are Expanding Area in 2021 24 Australian winter crop area is forecast to increase to record levels in 2021, while production will fall slightly due to some regions lacking moisture. The 3-month rainfall forecast is generally supportive for 2021’s winter crop production Australia W
Slide 25: Structural Changes in Chinese Demand
Structural Changes in Chinese Demand 25 The rebuild of China’s hog herd combined with structural shift in feed rations and corn production shortages has resulted in record import demand China’s Grain Production Surplus/Deficit China Soybean & Corn Price Million Tonnes US$/Bushel 22 40 44 41 20 16 ~9
Slide 26: Global Fertilizer Prices
Global Fertilizer Prices 26 Fertilizer prices have continued to increase in recent months on tightened supply and robust demand in key spot markets Selected Fertilizer Prices Change Since July 2020 US$ per Unit US$ per Unit 700 600 Brazil CFR (US$/mt) +$445 K 500 400 300 200 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul
Slide 27: Global Potash Deliveries by Region
Global Potash Deliveries by Region 27 We raise our global potash demand forecast to 69 to 71 million tonnes in 2021, supported by favorable crop economics and high affordability levels for farmers around the world and limited inventory build from higher-than-expected 2020 shipments Million Tonnes KC
Slide 28: Constructive Potash Market Outlook
Constructive Potash Market Outlook 28 Potential to shift production higher in a strong demand environment to maintain market balance Global Potash Utilization of Operational Capability (excludes NTR)1 Percent 100% High Demand and/or Supply Disruption Global Potash Utilization Sensitivity Deploying +
Slide 29: Chinese Potash Fundamentals
Chinese Potash Fundamentals 29 China potash port inventory has continued to decline while domestic consumption has continued to rise. The Chinese government has put more emphasis on food security, driving future expected total demand for fertilizer China Potash Inventory China Fertilizer Consumption
Slide 30: Global Nitrogen Projects
Global Nitrogen Projects 30 The pace of nitrogen capacity additions has been slow and is projected to be below demand growth over the medium-term. Urea project delays contributed to a tighter than expected S/D balance in 1H’21 which could continue Global Net Ammonia Supply Additions Global Urea Supp
Slide 31: US Imports of UAN by Source
US Imports of UAN by Source 31 UAN countervailing and antidumping petition was launched against Russia and Trinidad who account for approximately 80 percent of US UAN imports in the last few years US UAN Imports Share (%), Calendar Year Russia Trinidad Netherlands Canada Other 100% 3.5 80% 60% 40% 2
Slide 32: China and India Dynamics Remain Crucial to Urea Market
China and India Dynamics Remain Crucial to Urea Market 32 Chinese urea producers are profitable despite increased coal costs, but strong domestic demand has constrained exports; Export controls to prioritize domestic supply could support international prices and constrain Indian imports China Urea E
Slide 33: Global Natural Gas and Coal Prices
Global Natural Gas and Coal Prices 33 Continued increases in European natural gas and Chinese coal prices are supportive of the cost-based floor however, in the current demand-driven market, prices are above marginal costs which is supportive for Nutrien’s business Energy Feedstock Prices US$/MMBtu
Slide 34: Nutrien 2021 Annual Guidance
Nutrien 2021 Annual Guidance 34 2021 Guidance Ranges 1,2 Low High (annual guidance except where noted) Adjusted net earnings per share1 $4.60 $5.10 Adjusted EBITDA (billions) $6.0 $6.4 Adjusted Retail EBITDA (billions) $1.6 $1.7 Adjusted Potash EBITDA (billions) $2.4 $2.6 Adjusted Nitrogen EBITDA (b
Slide 35: Thank You!
Thank You! For more information, visit: www.nutrien.com twitter.com/nutrienltd facebook.com/nutrienltd linkedin.com/company/nutrien youtube.com/nutrien @nutrienltd