Slide 1: Third Quarter 2021 Results
November 5, 2021 Third Quarter 2021 R E S U LT S
Slide 2: Safe Harbor Statements
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENTS Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements The information presented herein includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations, esti
Slide 3: Safe Harbor Statements (Cont'd)
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENTS (CONT’D) About Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Items Affecting Comparability “Adjusted EBITDA” (EBITDA as adjusted for unrealized gains or losses from hedging activities, tax receivable agreement impacts, reorganization items, and certain other items described from time to tim
Slide 4: Agenda
AGENDA I Welcome and Safe Harbor Molly Sorg, SVP Investor Relations and Chief Purpose and Sustainability Officer II Highlights Curt Morgan, Chief Executive Officer III Financial Results Jim Burke, President and Chief Financial Officer Vi s tra Inv es tor Pres en t a ti o n / Q3 2021 4
Slide 5: Highlights
Highlights Curt Morgan Chief Executive Officer Vi s tra Inv es tor Pres en t a ti o n / Q3 2021
Slide 6: Q3 2021 Financial Results
Q3 2021 FINANCIAL RESULTS Vistra executed well during the third quarter and has a clear line of sight to achieving 100% of its $500 million self-help target for the year; securitization has been approved by the PUCT and an estimate is included in 2021 Adjusted EBITDA guidance Q3 2021 Financial Resul
Slide 7: Initiating 2022 Guidance
INITIATING 2022 GUIDANCE Vistra’s view of Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted FCFbG for 2022 and beyond remains robust as power prices have moved more in-line with Vistra’s point of view Initiating 2022 Guidance Ongoing Operations ($ millions) 2022 Guidance Illustrative 2022 Guidance2 Adjusted EBITDA1 $2,8
Slide 8: Strategic Priorities
STRATEGIC PRIORITIES Vistra’s strategic and capital allocation review identified four key strategic imperatives Driving long-term, sustainable value through Vistra's integrated business 1 model, strengthened following Uri through investment and improved risk management practices Returning significan
Slide 9: Long-Term Capital Allocation Plan
LONG-TERM CAPITAL ALLOCATION PLAN Vistra’s long-term capital allocation plan reflects a return of capital of at least $7.5 billion to its common stockholders through YE 2026, an average annual ~15% cash yield on its current stock price; this plan will continue as long as the company believes its sto
Slide 10: Long-Term Capital Allocation Plan cont'd.
LONG-TERM CAPITAL ALLOCATION PLAN cont’d. CASH AVAILABLE FOR ALLOCATION $ in billions (2022 - 2026) Corporate Capital for Vistra Zero: $0.5B Corporate Debt Repayment: up to $3.0B 0.5 1.0 Preferred Dividends: $0.5B TOTAL 10.0 11.5 CAFA Common Dividends: $1.5B $11.5B3 Share Repurchases: $6.0B VST Base
Slide 11: Financial Results
Financial Results Jim Burke President and Chief Financial Officer Vi s tra Inv es tor Pres en t a ti o n / Q3 2021
Slide 12: Q3 2021 Financial Results
Q3 2021 FINANCIAL RESULTS Vistra’s integrated operations continued to execute well through the mild summer months, delivering quarterly results that were in-line with the prior period ONGOING OPERATIONS ADJUSTED EBITDA1 HIGHLIGHTS ($ millions) $2,963 Q3 2021 Ongoing Ops Adj. EBITDA1: $1,177 $2,811 m
Slide 13: Commodities Update
COMMODITIES UPDATE Forward curves are moving higher in 2022 and beyond, reflective of higher gas prices and spark spreads, materially closing the gap between market curves and Vistra’s point of view, benefitting Vistra’s diversified fleet ERCOT 7x24 Spark Spreads1 PJM 7x24 Spark Spreads1 ($/MWh) ($/
Slide 14: Initiating 2022 Guidance
INITIATING 2022 GUIDANCE 2022E Guidance 2022 Guidance Illustrative 2022 Guidance1 ($ millions) Core Generation2 $2,120 - $2,380 $2,120 - $2,380 Sunset Generation3 $90 - $130 $90 - $130 Retail $600 - $800 $840 - $1,040 Ongoing Operations Adjusted $2,810 - $3,310 $3,050 - $3,550 EBITDA4 Asset Closure
Slide 15: Corporate Debt Profile
CORPORATE DEBT PROFILE A strong balance sheet is core to Vistra’s strategy. Vistra believes it can maintain financial strength with leverage in the range of ~3 -3.5x net debt to Adj. EBITDA in the near-term as we approach less than 3x ($ millions) Q3 2021 YE 2021E Term Loan B and Funded Revolver $2,
Slide 16: Appendix
Appendix Vi s tra Inv es tor Pres en t a ti o n / Q3 2021
Slide 17: Sustainability: Environmental Stewardship
SUSTAINABILITY: ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP Vistra is targeting net-zero by 2050 and is advancing its transformation via planned retirements of coal plants and investments in solar and batteries EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS PORTFOLIO TRANSFORMATION 60% by ~4,000 MW1 Scope 1 and Scope 2 GHG Emissions (in MMtCO
Slide 18: Sustainability: Social Responsibility & Governance
SUSTAINABILITY: SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY & GOVERNANCE Vistra’s Purpose: Lighting up people’s lives, powering a better way forward PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES GOVERNANCE Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion • Vistra CEO, Curt Morgan, joins Disability:IN to further advance • Oversight of Vistra’s ESG initiatives
Slide 19: Select Debt Balances
SELECT DEBT BALANCES FUNDED DEBT TRANCHES As of September 30, 20211 ($ millions) Issuer Series Principal Outstanding Secured Debt Vistra Operations Senior Secured Term Loan B-3 due December 2025 $2,550 Vistra Operations 3.550% Senior Secured Notes due July 2024 1,500 Vistra Operations 3.700% Senior
Slide 20: Capital Expenditures
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES PROJECTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURES1 ($ millions) 2021E 2022E Nuclear & Fossil Maintenance2,3 $565 $570 Nuclear Fuel 41 117 Non-Recurring4 29 72 Solar & Energy Storage Development5 450 TBD Other Growth6 10 53 Total Capital Expenditures $1,095 $812 Non-Recurring4 (29) (72) Solar & Ene
Slide 21: Third Quarter Retail Metrics
THIRD QUARTER RETAIL METRICS Q3 2021 RETAIL HIGHLIGHTS RETAIL VOLUME All markets (electric volumes in TWh) ✓ Grew residential customer counts year-over-year and 27.7 27.8 quarter-over-quarter in Texas through our multi-brand and 4.8 3.4 channel strategy ✓ Successfully launched two innovative product
Slide 22: Third Quarter Generation Metrics
THIRD QUARTER GENERATION METRICS TOTAL GENERATION CAPACITY FACTOR (CCGT) TWhs Q3 2020 Q3 2021 YTD 2020 YTD 2021 % Q3 2020 Q3 2021 YTD 2020 YTD 2021 TEXAS 23.4 22.9 61.2 58.2 TEXAS 59% 53% 51% 43% EAST 16.2 14.8 41.7 40.8 EAST 66% 61% 58% 57% WEST 1.3 1.6 3.7 4.0 WEST 60% 73% 56% 60% SUNSET 9.5 11.5
Slide 23: Hedge Profile & Portfolio Sensitivities
HEDGE PROFILE & PORTFOLIO SENSITIVITIES Effective: 9/30/2021 Balance of 2021 2022 TEXAS WEST EAST SUNSET TOTAL TEXAS WEST EAST SUNSET TOTAL Nuclear/Renewable/Coal Gen Position Expected Generation (TWh) 11 - - 11 22 48 - - 34 81 % Hedged 97% - - 100% 98% 85% - - 93% 88% Net Position 0 - - 0 0 7 - - 2
Slide 24: Market Pricing
MARKET PRICING Effective: 9/30/2021 NOTE: Spark Spreads calculated using an assumed heat rate of 7.2 mmbtu/MWh with $2.50 variable O&M (VOM) costs (market power price – (7.2 x gas price + VOM)). Vi s tra Inv es tor Pres en t a ti o n / Q3 2021 24
Slide 25: Capacity Positions
CAPACITY POSITIONS Effective: 9/30/2021 MW Average MW Average Segment Market Tenor Segment Market Tenor Position Price Position Price PJM $/mw-day CAISO RTO 2020/20211 3,429 $75.44 WEST 2021 1,188 2021/2022 3,466 $136.91 2022 1,420 2022/2023 3,066 $50.70 PJM $/mw-day ComEd 2020/2021 1,451 $192.75 RT
Slide 26: Asset Fleet Details
ASSET FLEET DETAILS Net Capacity Ownership Asset Location ISO Technology Primary Fuel (MW)1 Interest2 Ennis Ennis, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 366 100% Forney Forney, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,912 100 Hays San Marcos, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,047 100 Lamar Paris, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,076 100 Midlothian Midlothian, TX ERC
Slide 27: Asset Fleet Details (Cont'd)
ASSET FLEET DETAILS (CONT’D) Net Capacity Ownership Asset Location ISO Technology Primary Fuel (MW)1 Interest2 Independence Oswego, NY NYISO CCGT Gas 1,212 100% Bellingham Bellingham, MA ISO-NE CCGT Gas 566 100 Blackstone Blackstone, MA ISO-NE CCGT Gas 544 100 Casco Bay Veazie, ME ISO-NE CCGT Gas 54
Slide 28: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Q3 2021 Adjusted EBITDA
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS – Q3 2021 ADJUSTED EBITDA VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS THREE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2021 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Eliminations / Ongoing Asset Vistra Retail Texas East West Sunset Corp. and Operations Closure Consolidated Other Consolidated Net Income
Slide 29: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Q3 2021 Adjusted EBITDA
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS – Q3 2021 ADJUSTED EBITDA VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS THREE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2021 FOOTNOTES (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) (a) Includes $13 million of unrealized mark-to-market net gains on interest rate swaps. (b) Includes nuclear fuel amortization
Slide 30: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Q3 2020 Adjusted EBITDA
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS – Q3 2020 ADJUSTED EBITDA VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS THREE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2020 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Eliminations / Ongoing Asset Vistra Retail Texas East West Sunset Corp. and Operations Closure Consolidated Other Consolidated Net Income
Slide 31: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – YTD 2021 Adjusted EBITDA
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS – YTD 2021 ADJUSTED EBITDA VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS NINE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2021 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Eliminations / Ongoing Asset Vistra Retail Texas East West Sunset Corp. and Operations Closure Consolidated Other Consolidated Net Income
Slide 32: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – YTD 2021 Adjusted EBITDA
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS – YTD 2021 ADJUSTED EBITDA VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS NINE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2021 FOOTNOTES (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) (a) Includes $92 million of unrealized mark-to-market net gains on interest rate swaps. (b) Includes nuclear fuel amortization
Slide 33: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – YTD 2020 Adjusted EBITDA
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS – YTD 2020 ADJUSTED EBITDA VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS NINE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2020 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Eliminations / Ongoing Asset Vistra Retail Texas East West Sunset Corp. and Operations Closure Consolidated Other Consolidated Net Income
Slide 34: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2021 Guidance
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS – 2021 GUIDANCE VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS 2021 GUIDANCE1 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Operations Asset Closure Vistra Consolidated Low High Low High Low High Net Income (loss) (1,918) (1,764) (67) (47) (1,985) (1,811) Income tax benefit (509) (463)
Slide 35: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2021 Guidance
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS – 2021 GUIDANCE VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS 2021 GUIDANCE1 FOOTNOTES (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) 1 Regulation G Table for 2021 Guidance prepared as of November 5, 2021. (a) Includes unrealized (gain) / loss on interest rate swaps of ($105) million. (b) Incl
Slide 36: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2022 Guidance
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS – 2022 GUIDANCE VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS 2022 GUIDANCE1 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Operations Asset Closure Vistra Consolidated Low High Low High Low High Net Income (loss) 1,027 1,401 (140) (40) 887 1,361 Income tax expense 301 427 - - 301 427
Slide 37: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2022 Guidance
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS – 2022 GUIDANCE VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS 2022 GUIDANCE1 FOOTNOTES (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) 1 Regulation G Table for 2021 Guidance prepared as of November 5, 2021. (a) Includes unrealized (gain) / loss on interest rate swaps of ($50) million. (b) Inclu
Slide 38: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2022 Illustrative Guidance
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS – 2022 ILLUSTRATIVE GUIDANCE VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS 2022 ILLUSTRATIVE GUIDANCE1 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Operations Asset Closure Vistra Consolidated Low High Low High Low High Net Income (loss) 1,027 1,401 (140) (40) 887 1,361 Income tax ex
Slide 39: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2022 Illustrative Guidance
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS – 2022 ILLUSTRATIVE GUIDANCE VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS 2022 ILLUSTRATIVE GUIDANCE1 FOOTNOTES (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) 1 Regulation G Table for 2021 Guidance prepared as of November 5, 2021. 2022 Illustrative Guidance excludes ~$185 million impact from
Slide 40: End Slide
END SLIDE Vi s tra Inv es tor Pres en t a ti o n / Q3 2021