Bank Of Greece Sa · ATHEX:TELL

Bank Of Greece Sa — Technical Presentation (September 2022)

61 slides from Bank Of Greece Sa's technical presentation, Sep 29, 2022

  1. Slide 1: The Rise and Fall of Global Currencies Over Two Centuries

    The Rise and Fall of Global Currencies Over Two Centuries Roger Vicquéry Bank of England1 ESCB Cluster 2 Workshop Bank of Greece September 29, 2022 1 The opinions expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of England and its committees.

  2. Slide 2: A Turning Point in Monetary History?

    Introduction A Turning Point in Monetary History? Roger Vicquéry (Bank of England) The Rise and Fall of Global Currencies ESCB Cluster 2 Workshop 1 / 25

  3. Slide 3: Overview

    Introduction Overview This is a measurement paper, providing an historical perspective on current global dollar dominance and the future of the international monetary system. Follows a growing literature of long-run historical data contributions to international finance (Reinhart and Rogoff, NBER 20

  4. Slide 4: Motivation

    Introduction Motivation Renewed interest in dollar dominance Longstanding debate: Triffin Dilemma, exorbitant privilege. New: DCP, Global Financial Cycle... Newer: USD weaponisation, sanctions... What a transition out of dollar dominance would look like? Winner takes-all vs. Multipolarity. Euro, ren

  5. Slide 5: Contribution

    Introduction Contribution 1 Largest historical dataset of FX at weekly frequency (London market since 1846). 2 A continuous measure - based on FX co-movements - of the relative dominance of global currencies, comparable over time, since 1825. 3 A systematic documentation of previous episodes of glob

  6. Slide 6: Summary of Results

    Introduction Summary of Results Dollar dominance is an historical anomaly, from a two centuries perspective. Size and persistence of its lead vs. competing global currencies. The previous pound sterling hegemon dominance was frequently challenged by close competitors. Rise of the franc in 1850s and

  7. Slide 7: Outline

    Introduction Outline 1 Literature Review 2 Data 3 Empirical Strategy 4 Results Rise and Falls of Global Currencies Overall IMS Architecture 5 Conclusion Roger Vicquéry (Bank of England) The Rise and Fall of Global Currencies ESCB Cluster 2 Workshop 6 / 25

  8. Slide 8: Related Literature (1/2)

    Literature Review Related Literature Related Literature (1/2) Two Views of the International Monetary System: 1 Farhi and Maggiori (QJE 2018), Gopinath and Stein (QJE 2021), Gopinath and Itskhoki (NBER 2021). Strong IMS network externalities, winner-take all equilibrium, empirical evidence from USD

  9. Slide 9: Related Literature (2/2)

    Literature Review Related Literature Related Literature (2/2) 1 Iltzetzki et al. (QJE 2019) 1945-2020, monthly data. Classification algorithm focused on correctly describing countries’ exchange rate arrangements, based on narrative and quantitative data. Winner takes all view of global currencies. 2

  10. Slide 10: Global Reserves Shares from Eichengreen-Mehl-Chitu

    Literature Review Related Literature Global Reserves Shares from Eichengreen-Mehl-Chitu Roger Vicquéry (Bank of England) The Rise and Fall of Global Currencies ESCB Cluster 2 Workshop 9 / 25

  11. Slide 11: New Foreign-Exchange Data

    Data New Foreign-Exchange Data Extensive work (hundreds of hours...) of manual digitisation of London FX market prices from original printed sources. 1 1825-1914: Monthly: Global Financial Data or own digitization of selected currencies, until available at weekly frequency. Weekly: Own data digitise

  12. Slide 12: Sample Coverage

    Data Sample Coverage Roger Vicquéry (Bank of England) The Rise and Fall of Global Currencies ESCB Cluster 2 Workshop 11 / 25

  13. Slide 13: G10 FX Volatility Over Two Centuries

    Data G10 FX Volatility Over Two Centuries Roger Vicquéry (Bank of England) The Rise and Fall of Global Currencies ESCB Cluster 2 Workshop 12 / 25

  14. Slide 14: FX Factor Model

    Empirical Strategy FX Co-Movements and Global Currencies FX Factor Model Factor models of FX-returns introduced by Haldane and Hall (EJ 1991) and Frankel-Wei (NBER 1997). Recent work in the context of the global currency literature by Ito and McCauley (JIMF 2020) and Fratzscher and Mehl (EJ 2014). X

  15. Slide 15: Summary

    Empirical Strategy FX Co-Movements and Global Currencies Summary High frequency rolling FX co-movements models: 1 Numéraire Baseline model: Silver Ounce quoted in London. Robustness: NLG (1825-1914); HKD (1918-1939); CHF (1950-2020). 2 Global Currency Factors 1825-1914: GBP, FRF, DEM (Hamburg Banco

  16. Slide 16: Yearly Global Currency Weights Algorithm

    Empirical Strategy FX Co-Movements and Global Currencies Yearly Global Currency Weights Algorithm Bottom-up approach (McCauley and Ito, JIMF 2020), run the factor model for each polity and then aggregate up following three steps. 1 Weekly coefficient: Factor-models estimated in rolling windows for e

  17. Slide 17: Share of IMS Dominance

    Results Global Results The Rise and Fall of Global Currencies over Two Centuries 1 .8 Share of IMS Dominance .2 .4 0 .6 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2020 Not Assigned Japanese Yen US Dollar German Mark (Euro) French Franc British Pound Roger Vicquéry (Bank of England) The Rise and Fall o

  18. Slide 18: Global Currency Weights and Actual Global Reserve Share

    Results Global Results Global Currency Weights and Actual Global Reserve Share British Pound US Dollar 0 .25.5 .75 1 0 .25 .5 .75 1 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 Deutsche Mark / Euro French Franc 0 .25.5.75 1 0 .25.5.75 1 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 195

  19. Slide 19: 1825-1914: A Challenged British Hegemony

    Results 1825-1914 1825-1914: A Challenged British Hegemony Maps 1848 Fanco-Prussian War (1871) 1 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 Latin Union (1865) Classical GS (1880-...) Share of IMS Dominance 0 1825 1835 1845 1855 1865 1875 1885 1895 1905 1915 GBP GBP 95% C.I. FFR FFR 95% C.I. DEM DEM 95% C.I. Roger V

  20. Slide 20: 1918-1939: Global Currency Collapses and Fortune Reversals

    Results 1918-1939 1918-1939: Global Currency Collapses and Fortune Reversals Maps FED Tightening (1927) Britain off-Gold (1931) France Off-Gold (1936) 1 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 US Off-Gold (1933) Share of IMS Dominance Great Crash (1929) 0 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 GBP GBP 95% C.I. FFR FFR 95% C.I

  21. Slide 21: 1950-2020: Dollar Dominance

    Results 1950-2020 1950-2020: Dollar Dominance Maps Suez (1956) Nixon Shock EMS Crisis (1992) EZ Crisis (2011) 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 Share of IMS Dominance EMS Creation (1978) Euro (1999) Giscard's Exhorbitant Privilege Speech (1964) Plaza Accord (1985) GFC (2008) 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20

  22. Slide 22: Robustness Checks and Further Results

    Results 1950-2020 Robustness Checks and Further Results Regional View Pooled Regressions Alternative Numéraire and Weights GBP FFR DEM USD JPY Individual Polity Maps 1825-1914 1918-1939 1950-2020 Roger Vicquéry (Bank of England) The Rise and Fall of Global Currencies ESCB Cluster 2 Workshop 21 / 2

  23. Slide 23: The Overall IMS Architecture over Two Centuries

    Results The Structure of the IMS over Two Centuries The Overall IMS Architecture over Two Centuries Competition Structure Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of competition intensity computed from the yearly world GDP-weighted average weight for each global currency. Leader-”runner up” distance, computed as

  24. Slide 24: The Structure of IMS Competition Over Two Centuries

    Results The Structure of the IMS over Two Centuries The Structure of IMS Competition Over Two Centuries 1 .9 .8 .7 .6 .5 .4 .3 .2 .1 0 1825 1840 1855 1870 1885 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Leader-Runner Up Range Roger Vicquéry (Bank of England) The Rise an

  25. Slide 25: IMS Multipolarity (HH Index)

    Results The Structure of the IMS over Two Centuries IMS Competition and Financial Stability .7 IMS Multipolarity (HH Index) 1842 19721958 1971 1841 19541961 1953 1973 1970 1843 1955 1956 1962 18401963 1964 1957 1952 .6 1968 1950 1839 19511969 1838 1967 1837 1959 1965 1960 1825 1966 1997 1929 .5 1996

  26. Slide 26: Conclusion

    Conclusion Conclusion Current levels of one-currency leadership are an historical anomaly, in terms of persistence and magnitude of USD lead: A benign interpretation: structural shift consistent with DCP paradigm, high USD vs. EUR distance is evidence of stable outlook looking at the model by Farhi

  27. Slide 27: A Regional View over Two Centuries

    Summary A Regional View over Two Centuries Western Europe Scandinavia 0 .2.4.6.8 1 0 .2.4.6.8 1 Share of Regional Dominance 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 Eastern Europe Asia 0 .2.4.6.8 1 0 .2.4.6.8 1 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 1825 1850

  28. Slide 28: Global GDP-Weighted Aggregation of Explained Variance

    Summary Global GDP-Weighted Aggregation of Explained Variance 1 .9 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 GDP-Weigthed Average .2 .1 0 1825 1845 1865 1885 1905 1925 1945 1965 1985 2005 Baseline R2 Weighted Average Baseline 95% C.I. Roger Vicquéry (Bank of England) The Rise and Fall of Global Currencies ESCB Cluster 2 W

  29. Slide 29: Tentative Summary of Major Discontinuities (1/2)

    Summary Tentative Summary of Major Discontinuities (1/2) Rises... GBP, 1830s, banking crisis in France, BoE Effective LOR. FFR, 1850s-1860s, rising external surplus, regional integration, proactive internationalisation policy. DEM, 1870s, military victory against France, regional integration (unific

  30. Slide 30: Tentative Summary of Major Discontinuities (2/2)

    Summary Tentative Summary of Major Discontinuities (2/2) ...and Falls FFR, 1836, banking crisis. GBP, 1866, banking crisis. DEM, 1873, banking crisis. USD, 1928, monetary policy tightening (?). GBP, 1929-1931, BoP crisis., banking crisis, devaluation. USD, 1933, banking crisis, devaluation. FFR, 193

  31. Slide 31: 1830: A Bipolary System post-Vienna Congress

    Map Chronology 1830: A Bipolary System post-Vienna Congress 1830 British Pound (0.9-1) British Pound (0.75-0.89) British Pound (0.5-0.74) British Pound (0.1-0.49) French Franc (0.9-1) French Franc (0.75-0.89) French Franc (0.5-0.74) France (0.1-0.49) Hamburg Silver Mark (0.9-1) Hamburg Silver Mark (

  32. Slide 32: 1840: Large GBP Gains in Dominance in the 1830s

    Map Chronology 1840: Large GBP Gains in Dominance in the 1830s 1840 British Pound (0.9-1) British Pound (0.75-0.89) British Pound (0.5-0.74) British Pound (0.1-0.49) French Franc (0.9-1) French Franc (0.75-0.89) French Franc (0.5-0.74) France (0.1-0.49) Hamburg Silver Mark (0.9-1) Hamburg Silver Mar

  33. Slide 33: 1848: GBP Dominance Unscathed by the People's Spring

    Map Chronology 1848: GBP Dominance Unscathed by the People’s Spring 1848 British Pound (0.9-1) British Pound (0.75-0.89) British Pound (0.5-0.74) British Pound (0.1-0.49) French Franc (0.9-1) French Franc (0.75-0.89) French Franc (0.5-0.74) France (0.1-0.49) Hamburg Silver Mark (0.9-1) Hamburg Silve

  34. Slide 34: 1858: Rise in FFR Dominance with the Second Empire

    Map Chronology 1858: Rise in FFR Dominance with the Second Empire 1858 British Pound (0.9-1) British Pound (0.75-0.89) British Pound (0.5-0.74) British Pound (0.1-0.49) French Franc (0.9-1) French Franc (0.75-0.89) French Franc (0.5-0.74) France (0.1-0.49) Hamburg Silver Mark (0.9-1) Hamburg Silver

  35. Slide 35: 1866: Peak of FFR Dominance

    Map Chronology 1866: Peak of FFR Dominance as Paris Hosts the 1st International Monetary Conference 1866 British Pound (0.9-1) British Pound (0.75-0.89) British Pound (0.5-0.74) British Pound (0.1-0.49) French Franc (0.9-1) French Franc (0.75-0.89) French Franc (0.5-0.74) France (0.1-0.49) Hamburg S

  36. Slide 36: 1873: Major IMS Discontinuity with German Unification

    Map Chronology 1873: Major International Monetary System Discontinuity with the German Unification 1873 British Pound (0.9-1) British Pound (0.75-0.89) British Pound (0.5-0.74) British Pound (0.1-0.49) French Franc (0.9-1) French Franc (0.75-0.89) French Franc (0.5-0.74) France (0.1-0.49) Hamburg Si

  37. Slide 37: 1885: A Tripolar Classical Gold Standard (I)

    Map Chronology 1885: A Tripolar Classical Gold Standard (I) 1885 British Pound (0.9-1) British Pound (0.75-0.89) British Pound (0.5-0.74) British Pound (0.1-0.49) French Franc (0.9-1) French Franc (0.75-0.89) French Franc (0.5-0.74) France (0.1-0.49) German Mark (0.9-1) German Mark(0.75-0.89) German

  38. Slide 38: 1895: A Tripolar Classical Gold Standard (II)

    Map Chronology 1895: A Tripolar Classical Gold Standard (II) 1895 British Pound (0.9-1) British Pound (0.75-0.89) British Pound (0.5-0.74) British Pound (0.1-0.49) French Franc (0.9-1) French Franc (0.75-0.89) French Franc (0.5-0.74) France (0.1-0.49) German Mark (0.9-1) German Mark(0.75-0.89) Germa

  39. Slide 39: 1913: A Tripolar Classical Gold Standard (III)

    Map Chronology 1913: A Tripolar Classical Gold Standard (III) 1913 British Pound (0.9-1) British Pound (0.75-0.89) British Pound (0.5-0.74) British Pound (0.1-0.49) French Franc (0.9-1) French Franc (0.75-0.89) French Franc (0.5-0.74) France (0.1-0.49) German Mark (0.9-1) German Mark(0.75-0.89) Germ

  40. Slide 40: 1922: Rise of the USD after WW1

    Map Chronology 1922: Rise of the USD after WW1 1922 British Pound (0.9-1) British Pound (0.75-0.89) British Pound (0.5-0.74) British Pound (0.1-0.49) French Franc (0.9-1) French Franc (0.75-0.89) French Franc (0.5-0.74) France (0.1-0.49) US Dollar (0.9-1) US Dollar(0.75-0.89) US Dollar (0.5-0.74) US

  41. Slide 41: 1927: Peak of USD Dominance in the Interwar

    Map Chronology 1927: Peak of USD Dominance in the Interwar 1927 British Pound (0.9-1) British Pound (0.75-0.89) British Pound (0.5-0.74) British Pound (0.1-0.49) French Franc (0.9-1) French Franc (0.75-0.89) French Franc (0.5-0.74) France (0.1-0.49) US Dollar (0.9-1) US Dollar(0.75-0.89) US Dollar (

  42. Slide 42: 1929: A Shortlived Comeback of the GBP in 1929

    Map Chronology 1929: A Shortlived Comeback of the GBP in 1929 1929 British Pound (0.9-1) British Pound (0.75-0.89) British Pound (0.5-0.74) British Pound (0.1-0.49) French Franc (0.9-1) French Franc (0.75-0.89) French Franc (0.5-0.74) France (0.1-0.49) US Dollar (0.9-1) US Dollar(0.75-0.89) US Dolla

  43. Slide 43: 1931: The FFR Steps into the Instability of the GBP and the USD

    Map Chronology 1931: The FFR Steps into the Instability of the GBP and the USD 1931 British Pound (0.9-1) British Pound (0.75-0.89) British Pound (0.5-0.74) British Pound (0.1-0.49) French Franc (0.9-1) French Franc (0.75-0.89) French Franc (0.5-0.74) France (0.1-0.49) US Dollar (0.9-1) US Dollar(0.

  44. Slide 44: 1936: FFR Dominance Before the 1936 French Election

    Map Chronology 1936: FFR Dominance Before the 1936 French Election 1936 British Pound (0.9-1) British Pound (0.75-0.89) British Pound (0.5-0.74) British Pound (0.1-0.49) French Franc (0.9-1) French Franc (0.75-0.89) French Franc (0.5-0.74) France (0.1-0.49) US Dollar (0.9-1) US Dollar(0.75-0.89) US

  45. Slide 45: 1939: GBP and USD Bipolarity at the Eve of WWII

    Map Chronology 1939: GBP and USD Bipolarity at the Eve of WWII 1939 British Pound (0.9-1) British Pound (0.75-0.89) British Pound (0.5-0.74) British Pound (0.1-0.49) French Franc (0.9-1) French Franc (0.75-0.89) French Franc (0.5-0.74) France (0.1-0.49) US Dollar (0.9-1) US Dollar(0.75-0.89) US Doll

  46. Slide 46: 1950: USD Dominance after WWII

    Map Chronology 1950: USD Dominance after WWII 1950 Japanese Yen (0.9-1) Japanese Yen (0.75-0.89) Japanese Yen (0.5-0.74) Japanese Yen (0.1-0.49) British Pound (0.9-1) British Pound (0.75-0.89) British Pound (0.5-0.74) British Pound (0.1-0.49) Deutsche Mark (0.9-1) Deutsche Mark (0.75-0.89) Deutsche

  47. Slide 47: 1964: Privilège Exhorbitant

    Map Chronology 1964: ”Privilège Exhorbitant” 1964 Japanese Yen (0.9-1) Japanese Yen (0.75-0.89) Japanese Yen (0.5-0.74) Japanese Yen (0.1-0.49) British Pound (0.9-1) British Pound (0.75-0.89) British Pound (0.5-0.74) British Pound (0.1-0.49) Deutsche Mark (0.9-1) Deutsche Mark (0.75-0.89) Deutsche

  48. Slide 48: 1974: The Beginnings of a DEM Zone

    Map Chronology 1974: The Beginnings of a DEM Zone 1974 Japanese Yen (0.9-1) Japanese Yen (0.75-0.89) Japanese Yen (0.5-0.74) Japanese Yen (0.1-0.49) British Pound (0.9-1) British Pound (0.75-0.89) British Pound (0.5-0.74) British Pound (0.1-0.49) Deutsche Mark (0.9-1) Deutsche Mark (0.75-0.89) Deuts

  49. Slide 49: 1988: German Dominance Hypothesis

    Map Chronology 1988: ”German Dominance Hypothesis” 1988 Japanese Yen (0.9-1) Japanese Yen (0.75-0.89) Japanese Yen (0.5-0.74) Japanese Yen (0.1-0.49) British Pound (0.9-1) British Pound (0.75-0.89) British Pound (0.5-0.74) British Pound (0.1-0.49) Deutsche Mark (0.9-1) Deutsche Mark (0.75-0.89) Deut

  50. Slide 50: 1996: Limited Fall of DEM Influence after the EMS Crisis

    Map Chronology 1996: Limited Fall of DEM Influence after the EMS Crisis 1996 Japanese Yen (0.9-1) Japanese Yen (0.75-0.89) Japanese Yen (0.5-0.74) Japanese Yen (0.1-0.49) British Pound (0.9-1) British Pound (0.75-0.89) British Pound (0.5-0.74) British Pound (0.1-0.49) Deutsche Mark (0.9-1) Deutsche

  51. Slide 51: 2002: The EUR Builds on the DEM Legacy

    Map Chronology 2002: The EUR Builds on the DEM Legacy 2002 Japanese Yen (0.9-1) Japanese Yen (0.75-0.89) Japanese Yen (0.5-0.74) Japanese Yen (0.1-0.49) British Pound (0.9-1) British Pound (0.75-0.89) British Pound (0.5-0.74) British Pound (0.1-0.49) Deutsche Mark (0.9-1) Deutsche Mark (0.75-0.89) D

  52. Slide 52: 2012: EUR Influence Resists Despite the Crisis

    Map Chronology 2012: EUR Influence Resists Despite the Crisis 2012 Japanese Yen (0.9-1) Japanese Yen (0.75-0.89) Japanese Yen (0.5-0.74) Japanese Yen (0.1-0.49) British Pound (0.9-1) British Pound (0.75-0.89) British Pound (0.5-0.74) British Pound (0.1-0.49) Deutsche Mark (0.9-1) Deutsche Mark (0.75

  53. Slide 53: 2020: USD Dominance Persists

    Map Chronology 2020: USD Dominance Persists 2019 Japanese Yen (0.9-1) Japanese Yen (0.75-0.89) Japanese Yen (0.5-0.74) Japanese Yen (0.1-0.49) British Pound (0.9-1) British Pound (0.75-0.89) British Pound (0.5-0.74) British Pound (0.1-0.49) Deutsche Mark (0.9-1) Deutsche Mark (0.75-0.89) Deutsche Ma

  54. Slide 54: Pooled Regressions - 1820-1914

    Pooled Regressions Pooled Regressions - 1820-1914 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) GBP 0.608*** 0.589*** 0.738*** 0.678*** 0.673*** 0.477*** (0.0623) (0.0609) (0.0815) (0.0382) (0.0384) (0.0570) FFR 0.271*** 0.304*** 0.331*** 0.0573** 0.0604** 0.0208 (0.0620) (0.0631) (0.0884) (0.0257) (0.0269) (0.0341) DEM

  55. Slide 55: Pooled Regressions - 1918-1939

    Pooled Regressions Pooled Regressions - 1918-1939 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) GBP 0.685*** 0.685*** 0.637*** 0.499*** 0.498*** 0.479*** (0.0275) (0.0276) (0.0293) (0.0226) (0.0226) (0.0232) FFR 0.0467*** 0.0471*** 0.0492*** 0.269*** 0.266*** 0.320*** (0.00752) (0.00757) (0.00745) (0.0163) (0.0164) (0.01

  56. Slide 56: Pooled Regressions - 1950-2020

    Pooled Regressions Pooled Regressions - 1950-2020 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) GBP 0.327*** 0.329*** 0.333*** 0.0556*** 0.0517*** 0.0684*** (0.0150) (0.0150) (0.0160) (0.00423) (0.00424) (0.00418) DEM -0.00276 -0.00304 -0.000934 0.404*** 0.401*** 0.411*** (0.00690) (0.00695) (0.00834) (0.00445) (0.00444)

  57. Slide 57: GBP - Baseline and Alternative Weights

    Baseline and Alternative Weights GBP - Baseline and Alternative Weights 1 .9 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 Share of IMS Dominance .1 0 1825 1845 1865 1885 1905 1925 1945 1965 1985 2005 Baseline Baseline 95% C.I. Alternative Numéraire Baseline, Trade-weighted Roger Vicquéry (Bank of England) The Rise and Fal

  58. Slide 58: FFR - Baseline and Alternative Weights

    Baseline and Alternative Weights FFR - Baseline and Alternative Weights 1 .9 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 Share of IMS Dominance .1 0 1825 1845 1865 1885 1905 1925 1945 1965 1985 2005 Baseline Baseline 95% C.I. Alternative Numéraire Baseline, Trade-weighted Roger Vicquéry (Bank of England) The Rise and Fal

  59. Slide 59: DEM - Baseline and Alternative Weights

    Baseline and Alternative Weights DEM - Baseline and Alternative Weights 1 .9 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 Share of IMS Dominance .1 0 1825 1845 1865 1885 1905 1925 1945 1965 1985 2005 Baseline Baseline 95% C.I. Alternative Numéraire Baseline, Trade-weighted Roger Vicquéry (Bank of England) The Rise and Fal

  60. Slide 60: USD - Baseline and Alternative Weights

    Baseline and Alternative Weights USD - Baseline and Alternative Weights 1 .9 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 Share of IMS Dominance .1 0 1825 1845 1865 1885 1905 1925 1945 1965 1985 2005 Baseline Baseline 95% C.I. Alternative Numéraire Baseline, Trade-weighted Roger Vicquéry (Bank of England) The Rise and Fal

  61. Slide 61: JPY - Baseline and Alternative Weights

    Baseline and Alternative Weights JPY - Baseline and Alternative Weights 1 .9 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 Share of IMS Dominance .1 0 1825 1845 1865 1885 1905 1925 1945 1965 1985 2005 Baseline Baseline 95% C.I. Alternative Numéraire Baseline, Trade-weighted Roger Vicquéry (Bank of England) The Rise and Fal

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