Slide 1: Fuel Cell Buses in Europe: Perspective and Outlook
FUEL CELL BUSES IN EUROPE PERSPECTIVE AND OUTLOOK PAUL JENNE Coordinator EU Fuel Cell Bus Projects
Slide 2: Content
CONTENT 1. Why Fuel Cells in Transit Buses ? 2. Transit Bus Markets in EU 3. Fuel Cell Bus Fleets (2004-2016) 4. Perspective and Outlook 1. EU Funding Programs 2. Zero Emission Alternatives 3. Challenges and Game Changers 4. Opportunities
Slide 3: Why Fuel Cells in Transit Buses?
WHY FUEL CELLS IN TRANSIT BUSES ?
Slide 4: Limits of the Environment
LIMITS OF THE ENVIRONMENT Global Warming Seal level is predicted to rise 3 ft or 1 m by the end of this century ! Large portions of the lower lands (Flanders, Netherlands, UK) will disappear Congestion and Harmful Emissions Low Commercial Speed and long idling times Noise, vibration, pollution are n
Slide 5: Air pollution causes substantial environment and health impacts (2013)
Air pollution causes substantial environment and health impacts (2013) : • € 330-940bn of which € 4bn healthcare costs • 40m EU citizens are still exposed to PM10 levels above the EU limits ! • Transportation accounts for approx. 25% of GHG emissions
Slide 6: Limits of Diesel Technology
LIMITS OF DIESEL TECHNOLOGY Injection Technologies • High Pressure • Common Rail Systems Cooling Technologies • Low Flow Cooling (LFC) • Air Injection • EGR (Exhaust Gas Recirculation) • NT Cooling (Niedertermperatur) Aftertreatment Technologies • CRT (Continuous Generation Trap) • DOC (Denox Oxydat
Slide 7: Emission Savings in the Real World
EMISSION SAVINGS IN THE REAL WORLD 1099 Diesel bus Emissions (tons) Euro 5 engines, 800k Km SORT1 Urban bus duty cycle 10.4 5.5 3.4 Nox NO2 PM CO2 Transit buses emit approx. 1.3 kg of CO2/bus/km ! Total EU bus fleet (200,000) emits about 136mln TONS of CO2 over 15 years or 25,000 tons/day
Slide 8: Electrification Options for Transit
ELECTRIFICATION OPTIONS FOR TRANSIT
Slide 9: Transit Buses Are an Ideal Application for Fuel Cells
TRANSIT BUSES ARE AN IDEAL APPLICATION FOR FUEL CELLS • Public Markets • Controlled Operational Conditions • No need for fueling network The Tier 2 bus OEM’s (Van Hool, Solaris, VDL, New Flyer etc) are the most effective way to market entry : - Flexibility – Integrators vs. full scale design - Indep
Slide 10: Commitment and Cooperation
COMMITMENT AND COOPERATION On November 12, 2014, 5 of the largest EU bus OEM’s (Mercedes, MAN, Van Hool, Solaris and VDL) signed an MOU expressing their joint commitment to develop fuel cell bus technology. The MOU was handed over to Mr. Olaf Scholz, First Mayor of the City of Hamburg and to Mr. Kit
Slide 11: Transit Bus Markets in EU
TRANSIT BUS MARKETS IN EU
Slide 12: 10 Year Bus History
10 YEAR BUS HISTORY (+ 8.5 tons) Total Total/yr Countries 10 yr (<2012) Average/year Transit ** France 49306 4903 2700 Germany 46980 4698 2600 UK/Ireland 39547 3947 2200 Spain/Portugal 30800 3080 1700 Italy 31398 3140 1730 Scandinavia* 19839 1983 1100 Switzerland/Austria 11478 1147 630 Benelux 18316
Slide 13: Market Segments/Propulsion
MARKET SEGMENTS/PROPULSION Total Transit Market (16 countries) : 14000 Bus Type Total Nr. % Survey expects strong growth of midi and Midibus 1600 11.4 articulated buses Standard 12m 7900 56.4 Artic 18m 3700 26.5 Other 800 5.7 Source : UITP Survey 3iBS 2013 Propulsion (Percentage of fleet) Diesel Bio
Slide 14: Fuel Cell Bus Fleets
FUEL CELL BUS FLEETS = oe
Slide 15: Current Fuel Cell Bus Fleets
CURRENT FUEL CELL BUS FLEETS > 83 fuel cell buses in operation or about to start operation Current EU-funded fuel cell bus projects @cnic Bolzano — 5 FC buses Aargau — 5 FC buses London —8 FC buses Milan —3 FC buses Oslo — 5 FC buses Cologne* — 4 FC buses Hamburg* — 6 FC buses Qk WAKA © High V.LO-Ci
Slide 16: HighVLOCity and Related Projects
2 HIGHVLOCITY Antwerp (Belgium) San Remo (Italy) Buses 5 5 4 FC Module >12,000 operating hours Warranty = 1,000 hours Hy/ian ara + Part of the Aberdeen Hydrogen Bus Project — together with High V.LO-City da + Operation of 6 FCBs (+4 from High V.LO-City) + Use of hydrogen storage as a means of managi
Slide 17: Perspective and Outlook: EU Funding Programs
PERSPECTIVE AND OUTLOOK EU FUNDING PROGRAMS
Slide 18: EU Funding Programs (FCH2 JU 2014-2020)
• FCH2 JU (2014-2020) – Overall Investment : 1.33 bln € • Integrating Programs : Infrastructure and Rolling Stock • EIB/EIF : European Investment Bank/European Investment Fund • EFSI : European Fund for Strategic Investments • Coalition (Supply and Demand) increase volume >< lower the cost • Roland
Slide 19: Perspective and Outlook: Zero Emission Alternatives
PERSPECTIVE AND OUTLOOK ZERO EMISSION ALTERNATIVES
Slide 20: Zero Emission Technologies
ZERO EMISSION TECHNOLOGIES Electric Trolleybus Inductively charged Van Hool-Vossloh Kiepe Midibus TRL 9 Van Hool-Bombardier TRL 4 > 5 Conductively Overhead Charged artic bus Hybrid Fuel Cell Hess-TOSA Geneva Electric Bus TRL 4 > 5 Van Hool-Ballard TRL 7 > 8 Conductively Overhead Charged 12m bus Volv
Slide 21: Perspective and Outlook: Challenges and Opportunities
PERSPECTIVE AND OUTLOOK CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
Slide 22: Challenges
CHALLENGES Cost Challenges : - Bus price - Maintenance cost - Energy cost !! Zero Emission Competition : e-bus battery and opportunity charging - Energy cost vs. high Infrastructure cost Political Game Changers : - Climate Change Agendas and Priorities - Sustained Incentives and Taxation - Regulator
Slide 23: Bus Cost Development - Heavy Duty Scenario
BUS COST DEVELOPMENT - HEAVY DUTY SCENARIO (source : RB Consultants) FC bus purchase price until 2015 Purchase price projections : Niche (<1000/2020) + Scale (8-10,000/2025) + Best case (10-20,000/2030) Scenario -76% 700-730 FC bus 700 Hybrid diesel 570-600 Diesel 600 500 420-450 400-450 400 331 329
Slide 24: Perspective and Outlook: Opportunities
PERSPECTIVE AND OUTLOOK OPPORTUNITIES
Slide 25: Opportunities: Distinct Advantages and Action Plan
OPPORTUNITIES DISTINCT ADVANTAGES : - TRL Level (Time Advantage !) - Operational Flexibility - Less infrastructure - Renewable Energy Options ACTION PLAN : 1. Prepare for the FCH JU 2016 call ! 2. Link different funding programs 3. Elaborate Innovative Financing Schemes 4. Develop Technical/Marketin
Slide 26: Thank you for your attention
Thank you for your attention