Baroda BNP Paribas Gold ETF · NSE:BBNPPGOLD
Baroda BNP Paribas Gold ETF — Baroda BNP Paribas Mutual Fund — Investor Presentation (August 2025)
21 slides from Baroda BNP Paribas Gold ETF's investor presentation, August 2025
Slide 1: Monthly Macro-Insights August 2025
MONTHLY MACRO-INSIGHTS AUGUST- 2025
Slide 2: Global Economy
Global Economy * B ae io Together for more 2510812025 2 MUTUAL FUND
Slide 3: What we cover this month?
What we cover this month? ❑ Global Monetary Policies - Snapshot ❑ US Inflation – A key watch! Global Yields – Navigating different tides ❑ India – Liquidity, Growth and Inflation ❑ RBI Rates and Liquidity Outlook! 25/08/2025 3
Slide 4: Key Events July-August 2025
Key Events July- August 2025… ❑ RBI in its August Policy held the rates steady and reduced inflation expectation from 3.7% to 3.1% for FY 26. ❑ RBI MPC to have a data dependent policy response as it continues to monitor global trade and domestic growth developments. ❑ RBI in June-25 policy reduced t
Slide 5: Global Monetary Policies – Snapshot
Global Monetary Policies – Snapshot Bank of Japan US FOMC Summary of opinions from the BoJ’s July meeting FOMC continued with another pause. points to a growing impetus for a rate hike. The policy tone was slightly hawkish with At its July meeting, the central bank raised its concerns on tariff rela
Slide 6: Global yields – What's priced in?
Global yields – What’s priced in ? Global Yields 7.5 3 7 6.497 2.5 6.5 2 6 1.782 5.5 1.5 1.604 5 1 4.5 0.5 4 4.2907 0 3.5 3 -0.5 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 US 10 Year Yield (LHS) India 10 Year Yield (LHS) China 10 Year Yield (RHS) Japan
Slide 7: US Tariff update and Impact
US Tariff update and Impact • President Trump announced an additional bilateral tariff of 50% on India as penalty for importing crude oil from Russia. • Effective August 27th, the cumulative bilateral tariff on India will rise to 50%, which is currently the highest globally (along with Brazil). • Co
Slide 8: US producer prices see uptick, CPI stagnant
US producer prices see uptick, CPI stagnant US Producer Price Index YoY% ❑U.S. producer prices 5 increased July-25 amid a 4 3 surge in the costs of 2 goods and services, 1 suggesting a broad 0 -1 pickup in inflation was -2 imminent. ❑The expectations of Energy Goods Less Foods And Energy Services Co
Slide 9: Summary of Events and Our View
Summary of Events and Our View ❑ US Inflation to be a key watch, Why? ▪ FOMC rate cutting cycle to proceed cautiously after Trump tariffs and implying spillovers on inflation. ▪ The actual impact on growth and inflation is yet to pan out and will be a key watch. ▪ Recent political discussions around
Slide 10: Domestic Economy
Domestic Economy 25/08/2025 10
Slide 11: Improving Liquidity – In spirit of the stance!
Improving Liquidity – In spirit of the stance! LAF and MCLR 4,00,000 9.1 3,00,000 9.0 8.9 INR in lac crore 2,00,000 8.8 1,00,000 8.7 (%) 0 8.6 8.5 -1,00,000 8.4 -2,00,000 8.3 -3,00,000 8.2 LAF (LHS) MCLR rate (RHS) • Banking and durable liquidity are currently comfortable, and financial conditions h
Slide 12: RBI MPC August 2025 – A long pause, until growth falters
RBI MPC August 2025 – A long pause, until growth falters RBI FY26 August-25 June -25 Change Estimates in % Policy Policy in bps Key Policy Highlights – • RBI maintained its GDP forecast at 6.5% reflecting CPI - Inflation 3.1 3.7 -0.6 RBI’s confidence on domestic growth. • MPC is cautious and watchfu
Slide 13: Rationalization of GST rates – Looking inward
Rationalization of GST rates – Looking inward GST Collections each fiscal 25.0 22.1 20.2 20.0 18.1 14.9 Rs. in trillion 15.0 12.2 11.4 10.0 8.2 5.0 0.0 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FYTD'26 ▪ We expect gross fiscal impact to be expected at INR 1.2trn (30bps of GDP) on a full year basis. ▪ The monthl
Slide 14: India's Fiscal Picture
India’s Fiscal Picture Central Govt. Tax revenue growth • Centre’s gross tax collections growth remained weak. Gross tax revenue growth was tepid at ~5%. • The moderation was led by weaker direct tax collections. • Indirect tax collections remained robust and grew at 11% y/y in Q1 FY26 supporting ce
Slide 15: India FX reserves - Building on the resilience
India FX reserves - Building on the resilience FX Reserves and INR Trade tariffs and Geopolitical situation 750 brought back the volatility, 90 but reserves remained 88 Onset of Russia resilient. 700 Ukraine war, 86 Pandemic driven volatility currency but RBI focused on depreciation. 84 increasing t
Slide 16: Domestic Inflation – 8 year low!
Domestic Inflation – 8 year low! Headline Inflation 5 4.5 4.3 4 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3 2.8 2.5 2.1 2 1.6 1.5 1 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 • Headline CPI hits 8-year low at 1.6% y/y in July-25, second instance of sub-2% print since the base change in 2011. • The domestic inflation tr
Slide 17: Growth Indicators – A preview
Growth Indicators – A preview Diesel Consumption – A proxy for Industrial activity Steel Consumption – Capex Supported, Relatively better Monsoon season rainfall trending 2% above normal – Positive for Credit Card Transaction – Slowing Consumption rural outlook Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies, Data as
Slide 18: Decoding Yield Signals
Decoding Yield Signals Economic Variable Our View Impact on yields Economic activity remains a fragile spot as external environment remains Growth volatile. Inflation trajectory looks optimistic with a few bumps; we expect inflation to Inflation average at 3.1% Y/Y in FY26. Recent measures by RBI ha
Slide 19: Fixed Income Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook • The impact of uncertainty on US inflation and growth will be a key watch on global front. • Changing geopolitical alliances and trade policies add uncertainty to the external outlook. • On the domestic front, evolving growth dynamics have taken center stage. • Additionally, ce
Slide 20: Fixed Income Outlook – Our View
Fixed Income Outlook Our View We see value in the fixed income market in light of; a) Positive real rates of ~200 bps, post RBI rate cut of 100 bps. b) Benign inflation forecast of 3.1%, below RBI threshold of 4% . c) Maintaining GDP forecast at 6.5% indicates a continuity of pro-growth-oriented pol
Slide 21: Disclaimers
Disclaimers In the preparation of the material contained in this document, Baroda BNP Paribas Asset Management India Ltd. (“AMC”) has used information that is publicly available, including information developed in-house. The AMC, however, does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and/or complete
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