Elia Group Sa/nv · EURONEXT:ELI
Elia Group Sa/nv — Investor Presentation (September 2018)
45 slides from Elia Group Sa/nv's investor presentation, Sep 10, 2018
Slide 1: Working Group Balancing
Working Group Balancing Monday 10th September 2018
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda 1. Approval of the MoM of previous WG Balancing 2. LFC Block Agreement – feedback consultation 3. Dossier Volume 4. Storm Risk 5. Daily auctions for FCR cooperation 6. aFRR/FCR procurement future evolution 7. AOB • aFRR new design • new MVAR design • publication design note R3 Down • Implemen
Slide 3: 1. Approval of the MoM of previous WG Balancing
1. Approval of the MoM of previous WG Balancing
Slide 4: Received comments
Received comments • Febeliec proposed textual improvements to the MoM The MoM were amended accordingly • Teamwise proposes a clarification to the question whether assets PGM C and PGM D need to bid in individually and what the requirements are for PGM B units. The MoM are clarified and amended a
Slide 5: 2. LFC - Block Agreement 3. Dossier Volume
2. LFC - Block Agreement 3. Dossier Volume by Kristof de Vos
Slide 6: LFC - Block Agreement and Dossier Volume
LFC - Block Agreement and Dossier Volume Link towards presentation: 6 WG BALANCING 10/09/2018
Slide 7: 4. Offshore integration
4. Offshore integration
Slide 8: Agenda
Agenda 1. Context 2. Storm forecast tool – key requirements 3. Standard procedure 4. Fall back procedure 5. Next steps 8 WG BALANCING 10/09/2018
Slide 9: Context
Context
Slide 10: Context – storm risk in North Sea
Context – storm risk in North Sea By 2020, 2300 MW offshore production is expected to be installed; Windparks are located in same geographical area and therefore subject to weather phenomenon at same moment; Among those phenomenon, ELIA is concerned about storm events. Storm event – power loss
Slide 11: Next steps
Next steps today WG Workshop on forecast Start test phase WG Balancing models (storm forecasts Balancing models) 10.09 11.10 31.10 28.11 End Sep. 31.10 06.12 5 weeks Send design document (WG bal. Discussion feedback Design freeze 4 weeks members) design Deadline feedback Publication design note desi
Slide 12: Storm forecast tools – key requirements
Storm forecast tools – key requirements
Slide 13: Executive summary of storm forecast model requirements
Executive summary of storm forecast model requirements Input from external suppliers Publications 2 separate storm forecast suppliers (complementary models) Aggregated information (offshore area) published on Hourly updates (forecasts on the next 48 hours) ELIA’s website; Forecasts (MW storm
Slide 14: Offshore integration Standard procedure
Offshore integration Standard procedure
Slide 15: Standard procedure
Standard procedure Applicable from the moment a storm is detected (being thanks to forecasts or in real time based on measurements of offshore production) Operational procedure based on BRP’s responsibility. ELIA do not impose timing or specific mitigation measures. In each step, expected acti
Slide 16: Steps before storm event
Step 1 to 3 – before storm event Storm characteristics Step 1 Step 2a Step 2b Step 3 Storm Storm preparation Risk assessment Close to real time Expected timing: Expected timing: from 09:00 til 12:00 from 16:00 til 21:00 detection BRP’s MW 6 Residual Expected Residual 0 impact: 2300 risk (MW) Actio
Slide 17: Step 4 – during storm event
Step 4 – during storm event No real time activation of balancing means required Real time activation of balancing means required Mitigation measure introduced No mitigation measure (or not respected) and respected 1 while storm effectively cuts out the wind parks Forecast error – storm starts later
Slide 18: Step 5 – cut in consecutive to storm event
Step 5 – cut in consecutive to storm event No real time activation of balancing means required Real time activation of balancing means required MW MW IDPCR IDPCR time time Initial cut-in Updated cut-in forecast Updated cut-in forecast Initial cut-in forecast (storm lasts later) (storm ends earlier)
Slide 19: Fall-back procedure
Fall-back procedure
Slide 20: Criteria’s to trigger the activation of ex ante actions
Criteria’s to trigger the activation of ex ante actions ELIA will compare the residual risk calculated automatically from the storm forecasts to the balancing means expected to be available during storm forecasted cut-out Calculation of residual risk Decision to trigger ex-ante action? 8 1 1 0 Activ
Slide 21: Fall-back procedure
Fall-back procedure Procedure to be used in last resort; only for situations with extreme risk (risk > available balancing means) and for which no actions from responsible BRPs are foreseen. Decision to start ex ante actions taken at last possible timing to consider most recent updates (info from BR
Slide 22: In what consist these ex-ante actions?
In what consist these ex-ante actions? MW Decremental action Cut-out phase Cut-in phase Volume determined during the risk analysis (e.g: 500 MW) 2300 Decremental bid on offshore park(s) for which BRP’s 1 5 have not introduced (and have no intention to do so) 1800 mitigation measures ( 1 ); 3 150
Slide 23: Settlement process of fall-back procedure
Settlement process of fall-back procedure Based on MW offshore measurements and wind speed measures ; ELIA can determine ex-post if the storm effectively happened or if the forecasts were wrong. Reminder: ELIA will test the forecasts accuracy during test period In case storm Storm happened Storm for
Slide 24: Next steps
Next steps
Slide 25: Next steps
Next steps today WG Workshop on forecast Start test phase WG Balancing models (storm forecasts Balancing models) 10.09 11.10 31.10 28.11 End Sep. 31.10 06.12 5 weeks Send design document (WG bal. Discussion feedback Design freeze 4 weeks members) design Deadline feedback Publication design note desi
Slide 26: 5. Daily auctions for FCR Cooperation
5. Daily auctions for FCR Cooperation
Slide 27: Possible postponement of daily auctions for FCR Cooperation
Possible postponement of daily auctions for FCR Cooperation TSOs have filed a proposal towards NRAs with the following content: 26 November 2018 1 July 2019 1 July 2020 • Daily auctions with daily • Marginal pricing for BSPs • Daily auctions with 4h products products (working days) (all days) • Allo
Slide 28: 6. aFRR/FCR procurement future evolution
6. aFRR/FCR procurement future evolution
Slide 29: Evolutions of the FCR/aFRR procurement
Evolutions of the FCR/aFRR procurement • Important feedback of the study on “separated procurement of FCR and aFRR products: – Not desirable that there are many implementation steps which require at the stakeholders side significant changes – Elia believes for the sake of efficiency and clarity that
Slide 30: New aFRR design
New aFRR design • For the opening of the aFRR capacity market: a daily procurement with blocks of 4 hours – Crucial for demand response, RES and decentralized production – Confirmed by the “R2 non-CIPU pilot project” and the study on “the delivery of downward aFRR by wind farms” – The evolution to a
Slide 31: Timings FCR cooperation
Timings FCR cooperation • Set on regional level and have an important impact on the timings of the FCR/aFRR procurement • Foreseen timings for FCR Cooperation between July 2019 and July 2020. Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday FCR cooperation: GCT 15:00 Delivery D Wednesday Thursday Friday Sat
Slide 32: Impact of FCR Cooperation timings on timings aFRR/FCR procurement
Impact of FCR Cooperation timings on timings aFRR/FCR procurement • Important remark: FCR volume of Elia to be sourced via FCR cooperation has to be known 24 hours beforehand • Foreseen timings for combined FCR/aFRR procurement between go-live new aFRR design and July 2020 • Foreseen timings for com
Slide 33: Asymmetric bidding in the combined FCR/aFRR procurement
Asymmetric bidding in the combined FCR/aFRR procurement • Today: – offer mostly symmetrical volumes for aFRR – Bidding for symmetrical volumes with the same volume in the up and down direction – No bidding obligations for asymmetrical flexibility • Opening aFRR market: – asymmetrical volumes will be
Slide 34: Way forward
Way forward Suboptimal daily tendering regarding the timing aspect Asymmetric bidding instructions in case of combined aFRR/FCR are impractical from an operation point of view number of bids to be submitted will increase exponentially. Elia proposes to have a separated procurement of FCR and aFRR
Slide 35: Separated procurement of aFRR and FCR: impact on aFRR
Separated procurement of aFRR and FCR: impact on aFRR • Timings of the aFRR procurement will become independent of the timings of the local and regional FCR procurement • Possibility to have logical and reasonable bidding obligations on the two aFRR directions • Enables reduction of maximum step siz
Slide 36: Way forward for FCR
Way forward for FCR • 2 options: – Option 1: “one step” option o Go-live of new aFRR design is aligned with the shift to full regional FCR procurement. – Option 2: “two step” option 1. Splitting the joint procurement of FCR and aFRR when the new aFRR design goes live 2. Merge to the regional procure
Slide 37: Way forward proposed options: impact on FCR
Way forward proposed options: impact on FCR • Option 1: “one step” option – Go-live of new aFRR design is aligned with the shift to full regional FCR procurement. • Procurement scheme for FCR and aFRR between the go-live of the new aFRR design and July 2020 in the “one step” option • Delivery D Mond
Slide 38: Way forward proposed options: impact on FCR
Way forward proposed options: impact on FCR • Option 2: “two step” option 1. Splitting the joint procurement of FCR and aFRR when the new aFRR design goes live 2. Merge to the regional procurement is assumed to take in any case place if a daily procurement lead time with blocks of 4 hours is in plac
Slide 39: Conclusion
Conclusion Taking into account the current estimate that the new design of the aFRR may go live in the beginning of 2020: • Considering the expected increase of different technologies/providers delivering 200mHz R1 in nearby future • Considering that the asymmetric FCR products are being used less a
Slide 40: 7. AOB
7. AOB • aFRR new design • new MVAR design • publication design note R3 Down & R3 2018 • Implementation of ToE w.r.t. R3 2018 • EBGL implementation
Slide 41: new aFRR design: public consultation launched
new aFRR design: public consultation launched • New aFRR design study: – facilitate the opening of the aFRR market to all technologies independent of the voltage level they are connected (TSO/DSO) and independent of the type of aFRR provider (BRP/BSP) – First part: Future design of the aFRR product.
Slide 42: new MVAR design: public consultation launched
new MVAR design: public consultation launched • Drivers MVAR design study: – facilitate the opening of the MVAR service to all technologies independent of the voltage level they are connected (TSO/DSO) and independent of the type provider – EU benchmark – Efficiency current tendering procedure – Imp
Slide 43: Publication design notes R3 2018 & R3 Down
Publication design notes R3 2018 & R3 Down Website WG Balancing http://www.elia.be/en/users-group/Working-Group_Balancing/Projects-and-Publications/R3-mFRR 43 WG BALANCING 10/09/2018
Slide 44: Planning ToE and go-live for R3 2018
Planning ToE and go-live for R3 2018 Go live TOE R3 1/12/2018 2018 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Today 14/9/2018 14/11/2018 Public consultation ARP-contract Submission ARP contract proposal to ARP contract approved by CREG & VREG CREG/VREG Public cons. TOE Rules 28/6/2018 - 18/7/2018 30/7/2018 14
Slide 45: AOB: Development at EU level regarding EBGL proposals
AOB: Development at EU level regarding EBGL proposals Pricing proposal (Article 30(1) & (3)) and activation purpose proposal (Article 29(3)) • Consultation expected to start this week, for 2 months: https://consultations.entsoe.eu/ • Stakeholders’ workshop on October 16th at ENTSO-E Imbalance settle