Elia Group Sa/nv · EURONEXT:ELI
Elia Group Sa/nv — Investor Presentation (October 2024)
76 slides from Elia Group Sa/nv's investor presentation, Oct 4, 2024
Slide 1: WG Grid
WG Grid 04/10/2024 13:00 – 16:00
Slide 2: 1st WG Grid – reminder about the scope
1st WG Grid – reminder about the scope Grid WG 2
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda _ Domain Agenda topic From - Till Presenter Time (min) 1 General Welcome & intro 13:00 - 13:05 Chairs 5 2 General Approval of MoM & status action points 13:05 - 13:10 Secretary 5 3 EM Next steps in the forward market 13:10 - 13:40 Steve Van Campenhout, Bruno De Wachter 30 4 EM Information abo
Slide 4: Approval of Minutes & Action points
Approval of Minutes & Action points • Approval of the Minutes of WG EMD-SO 04/06/2024 • Status of Action points / Grid WG 4
Slide 5: European Market
lia European Market
Slide 6: Next steps in the forward market
Next steps in the forward market European Market Steve Van Campenhout, Bruno De Wachter
Slide 7: Intro
Intro July 16th, 2024 July 16th, 2026 Jan 16th, 2026 Aug. 1st Sept. 30th The EC conducted a targeted consultation to capture stakeholders views on how to improve the current functioning of the electricity forward markets. Elia Group provided an answer to the targeted consultation. The purpose today
Slide 8: The Forward Markets & Long-Term Transmission Rights
The Forward Markets & Long-Term Transmission Rights • The forward market is a commodity market where market parties trade (financial) products among themselves without involvement of TSOs. • However, the availability of hedging instruments for bidding zone price differences (basis risk) can play an
Slide 9: Elia Group position more pronounced than ENTSO-E’s position wrt removal of LTA inclusion
Elia Group position more pronounced than ENTSO-E’s position wrt removal of LTA inclusion LTTRs objective: providing efficient hedging <> organizing competition among borders The objective of Long -Term Transmission Rights (LTTR) according to the Regulation is to offer efficient hedging opportunities
Slide 10: Elia Group position is more pronounced than ENTSO-E’s position: Volume determination
Elia Group position is more pronounced than ENTSO-E’s position Volume determination (long-term capacity calculation) 1. Take-aways from previous slide • We need a border-by-border approach • There is no reason to apply a scenario-based grid modeling approach - anyhow not compatible with >1y maturity
Slide 11: Key features of the product
Elia Group favors the model 2 developed by ENTSO-E Key features of the product • Market oriented = firm obligation • Options reflect better TSO´s positions in term of congestion income but do not fully match a market actor position to cover basis risk • Obligations allow to feed in liquidity into ex
Slide 12: Financial and regulatory comfort to cover additional costs
Elia Group position in line with ENTSO-E’s position Financial and regulatory comfort to cover for additional costs should be provided to TSOs Revenue adequacy ▪ The transition to a fully firm product including the removal of LTA inclusion impacts how revenue adequacy is achieved. ▪ No compelling nee
Slide 13: Other aspects
Elia Group position in line with ENTSO-E’s position Other aspects Auction frequency ▪ Trade-off: increase based on market participants’ feedback. At the same time the volume issued at each auction should not be too low ▪ The frequency of auction should be thought off together with the splitting betw
Slide 14: Summary of the way “forward”
Summary of the way “forward” 1. Long-Term Transmission Rights (LTTRs) purpose is to offer efficient hedging opportunities to market participants. They are financial products. There should be no link with the physical operation of the short-term electricity markets, implying the removal of the proces
Slide 15: Information about the new Central Europe CCR, and next steps
Information about the new Central Europe CCR, and next steps European Market Cyriac de Villenfagne
Slide 16: Central Europe (CE) CCR - Introduction
Central Europe (CE) CCR - Introduction • Central Europe CCR was established following ACER’s decision No 04/2024 on the amendment to the determination of capacity calculation regions (19/03/24) • Currently: a partial merger only for the DA timeframe • Rationale: do not interfere with implementation
Slide 17: Agenda next MCCG and CCG
Agenda next MCCG and CCG European Market Jean-Michel Reghem, Steve Van Campenhout
Slide 18: Agenda CE + Core Consultative Group Oct 11, Brussels
Agenda CE + Core Consultative Group Oct 11, Brussels 18
Slide 19: Agenda MCCG
Gia 1 10min Welcome, review of the action points logged in the Selim Boussetta, Thomas Van Den 4 11:00-11:30 30min SIDC Intraday Auctions (IDAs) last mectrg Brouck, Pere tion (wo ee a ES ‘Stilwell (SIDC OPSCOM Charis) 2 09:10-10:20 1h10min —_SDAC & SIDC 15min Market Time Unit (MTU) = First months of
Slide 20: System Service Design
ria System Service Design
Slide 21: iCAROS: presentation activities of the TF iCAROS until end of year
iCAROS: presentation activities of the TF iCAROS until end of year System Service Design Viviane Illegems
Slide 22: Business Scope
iCAROS = Integrated Coordination of Assets for Redispatching and Operational Security Outage Planning of Scheduling of Congestion management Business Scope grid users’ assets grid users’ – costly RD provided by assets grid users assets Exchange of operational data [from LT to RT] 22
Slide 23: iCAROS: what is it?
iCAROS : what is it? The Coordination and Congestion Management of system relevant assets of grid users, new way of working : the iCAROS project Ensure an efficient and future proof coordination of system relevant assets and congestion Goal management To expand the coordination of system relevant as
Slide 24: iCAROS Phased Implementation: current focus phase 2
iCAROS Phased Implementation : current focus phase 2 iCAROS Phase 1 December 2017 – 22 May 2024 September 2023- April 2027 iCAROS Phase 2 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Hier steht der Titel der Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 1 2025 -2027 2027 - 22 May 2024 Multiple sprints Multiple sp
Slide 25: Reminder Public consultation iCAROS phase 1: packages group A
Reminder Public consultation iCAROS phase 1 summer 2023 Packages linked to extend coordination and congestion management to European regional design (ROSC) and Local & DSO grid (group A): • Prerequisite 1 : Development of a local coordination and congestion management vision • Package 1 : Extension
Slide 26: Reminder Public consultation iCAROS phase 1: packages group B
Reminder Public consultation iCAROS phase 1 summer 2023 Packages linked to full design OPA (group B) • Package 3 : Full design availability plan for ≥ 25 MW production units all timeframes and adding new features (status reservation & exchange of testing information) • Prerequisite 2 : <25 MW and ≥
Slide 27: Reminder Public consultation iCAROS phase 1: packages group C
Reminder Public consultation iCAROS phase 1 summer 2023 Packages Full design SA (including redispatching) (group C) • Prerequisite 2 : <25 MW and ≥ 1 MW production units + demand facilities : Structural data and appointment of OPA/SA included in connection agreement & automatisation of the linked da
Slide 28: Consideration for the sequence of implementation of iCAROS phase 2 packages
Reminder Public consultation iCAROS phase 1 summer 2023 Consideration for the sequence of the implementation of the different packages of iCAROS implementation phase 2 • The financial consequences for market parties: the implementation of the iCAROS design means getting market parties on board for a
Slide 29: Proposed release scenarios for packages of phase 2
Proposed release scenarios for packages of phase 2 assuming a sequential development based on public consultation summer 2023 in the framework of iCAROS phase 1 • STEP 1 • GROUP A1 (Extension of CRI to local (< 150 kV up to 36/30 kV) and DSO grid )+ Group B (Full design OPA) • RELEASE 1 : Package 3
Slide 30: Coming stakeholder management interactions for step 1 of iCAROS phase 2
Coming stakeholder management interactions in the framework of step 1 of iCAROS phase 2 - Next interactions - 21/10/24 9:30-14:00 : taskforce iCAROS – Launch of iCAROS phase 2 design discussions – Availability Planning extension for large units [release 1] and introduction for small units /Demand fa
Slide 31: Contact persons
Contact persons KAM Energy Josephine Delmote/ François Jadoul/ Nicolas Koelman/ Sybille Mettens 31
Slide 32: GUFlex: status of the process in the workshop and agenda
GUFlex: status of the process in the workshop and agenda System Service Design Antoine Weynants, Philippe Magnant
Slide 33: Timeline until December 2024
Code of Conduct submission to the CREG Timeline until December 2024 Sep 20 Publication of consultation report Workshop on operational principles WG Belgian Grid - EOS/EDS processes and of the Code of Conduct Jun 14 Aug 28 submitted to the CREG on 20/09/2024 Sep 30 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Slide 34: Content of next workshop (10/10/2024) – NH Grand Sablon
Content of next workshop (10/10/2024) – NH Grand Sablon → During this workshop, we will focus on the most commented and impacting topics Agenda 10/10/2024 ❖ Methodology for client connection studies ❖ Operational processes and flexibility activations ❖ Temporary period ❖ Annual / multi-annual Cap ❖
Slide 35: Offshore: conclusion of the work in the TF Princess Elisabeth Zone
Offshore: conclusion of the work in the TF Princess Elisabeth Zone System Service Design Bilal Hahati
Slide 36: Overview of key milestones on stakeholders engagement in Task Force PEZ
Overview of key milestones on stakeholders engagement in Task Force PEZ Elia communication process Elia organized couples of Task Force Princess Elisabeth Zone and ad-hoc workshop to present, 2022-2024 Step 1 - Task Forces TF PEZ and ad-hoc workshops inform and engage stakeholders with call of feedb
Slide 37: TF Princess Elisabeth Zone
TF Princess Elisabeth Zone Status Tender for first offshore wind 700 MW is foreseen to start in Dec 2024 and managed by the AC +0.7 GW offshore wind AC connected by 2029 – phase 1 Belgian authorities Elia organized a public consultation on technical requirements that will be send and on market AC +1
Slide 38: Overview of adaptations on key reactions following public consultation
Adaptation Overview of adaptations on key reactions received following public Clarification/additional info consultation Task Force Princess Elisabeth Zone No change/additional justification Impact/importance for offshore wind tender Connection requirements Flex access Single vs split node operation
Slide 39: Black-Start Service
Black-Start Service System Service Design Carsten Bakker
Slide 40: Purpose of the service
Purpose of the service • Belgium’s economy must be able to rely on swift restoration of the power supply from the grid when a blackout occurs. • As a Transmission System Operator (TSO), Elia has set up a Restoration Plan, which it will execute at the time needed in coordination with crisis teams, ne
Slide 41: Participation to the service
Participation to the service Who can participate to the service? ✓ The Grid User of technical units connected to the Elia grid or CDSO grid ✓ An aggregation of technical units is possible if they are connected to the same connection point Who can become a Restoration Service Provider? ✓ The Grid Use
Slide 42: T&C RSP – Design evolutions in T&C RSP
T&C RSP – Design evolutions in T&C RSP Objectives of the new design ✓ Extending the participation possibilities to the Black-start service ✓ Opening the participation to the service to more potential candidates ✓ Future proof solution considering the evolution of the market Main changes introduced i
Slide 43: Tender timing
Tender timing Indicative timeline 2024 2025 2023 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Q4 Q1 Q2 Today Qualification submission Call for Analysis candidatures Candidates Communication towards tender participants Offer submission Competitive dialogue & final offer Call for Tender Analysis offer & cr
Slide 44: Mvar: start of implementation for new evolutions
Mvar: start of implementation for new evolutions System Service Design Carsten Bakker
Slide 45: Purpose of the service
Purpose of the service • Elia is responsible to stabilize the voltage in the event of an incident and maintain it within limits ensuring grid security • To maintain grid voltages at a suitable and stable level, Elia relies on reactive power supplied by grid-connected units via the service provided b
Slide 46: Participation to the service
Participation to the service Who is obliged to participate to the Regulatory changes service? ✓ Delivery period is 2 years instead of 1 year ✓ The Grid User of technical units connected to the ✓ The tender will span both 2025 and 2026 Elia grid as defined in the applicable legislation ✓ Following te
Slide 47: Tender Process: Process & timings in 2024
Tender Process: Process & timings in 2024 May 15 - June 15 Call for Candidates June 15 - June 25 Candidature Evaluation June 26 - August 14 Call for Tender August 14 – Sept 4 Checks on the offers Sept 2 – Sept 30 Creation & Review VSP CREG report Sept 30- Nov 15 Offer evaluation & non-public consult
Slide 48: Voltage service – Implementation of design changes
Voltage service – Implementation of design changes System Service Design Carsten Bakker
Slide 49: Introduction
Introduction Context and goals of the incentive • Following entry into force of the new design in 2020, some return of experience is available • This study intends to analyze further possible design improvements for the voltage and reactive power control service in order to: • Optimize the efficienc
Slide 50: MVAr service incentive – Review and recommendations for design optimisations
MVAr service incentive – Review and recommendations for design optimisations 1. Continuous activation control for manual and automatic activation 5. Price setting during the tendering process 1. Introduce the possibility of offering a formula 2. Penalties need to be in line with the continuous inste
Slide 51: Implementation plan - description
The timings presented here are Implementation plan - description estimations and subject to change Implementation plan in the incentive: • Implementation of modifications to the MVAr T&C mid Q3 2024 – mid Q2 2025 • Implementation and testing of the communication protocol for the MVAr service Q1 2025
Slide 52: Operations
lia Operations
Slide 53: Summer review with a focus on incompressibility
Summer review with a focus on incompressibility Operations Silvio Ferreira
Slide 54: Action plan: Incompressibility summer 2024
Action plan: Incompressibility summer 2024 short recap 54
Slide 55: Incompressibility Risk – What are the different types of RES flex?
Incompressibility Risk – What are the different types of RES flex? Solar PV (10297MWp) Wind onshore (3177MW) & offshore (2262MW) ✓ Large PV site: Flexible ✓ Offshore Wind: Flexible ✓ Residential PV: Not flexible & Not Exposed to price signal ✓ Onshore Wind: (Technically) Flexible but should be more
Slide 56: Incompressibility Risk – Executive Summary
Incompressibility Risk – Executive Summary The concern about incompressibility follows a combination of two separate challenges: A. Ability of the market to manage well ‘predicted’ situations of high renewable generation. It is related to the ability of market parties to maintain a balanced portfoli
Slide 57: Incompressibility Risk - Needs
Incompressibility Risk - Needs Challenge A High Renewables generation – Challenge B Forecasting Error – Export Need Balancing Flexibility Need P75 Real-Time Vs Day-Ahead Forecast Or unexpected outage like Nemo Link Ltd in export Summer Outlook On the 7/4 event 1 out of 4 week-end (P75), Belgium woul
Slide 58: Incompressibility Risk: Where is Technical Flexibility Process located?
Incompressibility Risk : Where is Technical Flexibility Process located? • Optimized outage planning • Additional export capacity via Dynamic Line rating Elia • Additional export capacity via PST range in case of extreme situations • Efficient price signal 0. Communication to Market Party • Via Exte
Slide 59: Solar, Wind, Total Load, DA Open Position…
Solar, Wind, Total Load, DA Open Position…
Slide 60: Solar production
Solar production From April till September 21st – Power factor(*) distribution lower than previous years – Due to bad weather from April to July – Approximately same distribution in WE & holidays – Power factor 60%-70% – Expected 14% >< Realized 1,20% of days Solar production during summer was, rela
Slide 61: Solar production: weekends & holidays
Solar production Weekends & holidays from April till September 21st # Days with Stat. expected 2024 production… (2019-2023) > P0 (all) 55 55 > P25 42 37 > P50 28 19 > P75 19 4 > P85 8.3 1 > P90 5.5 0 ...with, especially during weekends, far less sunny (>P75) days than statistically expected Percenti
Slide 62: Wind production
Wind production From April till September 21st Wind production in line with previous summers, also during weekends Historic percentiles are based on the summers of 2015 until 2023 62
Slide 63: Total Load
Total Load Total load still below values before energy crisis but… we identify an increase compared to summer 2023 which means up to 500 MW more. 63
Slide 64: Global DA BRP Open Position
Global DA BRP Open Position 2023 vs 2024 2024 vs 2024 when D-1 high Risk of Incompressibility is triggered The more negative, the more, BRPs have a short position. Large different behavior between 2023 and 2024 in terms of Global DA BRP Open Position and this effect is even stronger when a D-1 high
Slide 65: Nuclear Production
Nuclear Production FO Reduction FO 4.100,000 3.900,000 3.700,000 MW 3.500,000 3.300,000 Nuclear 3.100,000 2.900,000 2.700,000 Maintenance 2.500,000 June July August 65
Slide 66: Day-ahead market analysis
-€ elia Day-ahead market analysis
Slide 67: Analysis of hours with negative Day-Ahead market prices in Belgium
Analysis of the number of hours concerned by Negative Day-Ahead market prices in Belgium The number of hours with DA negative price is significantly higher in 2024 compared to the previous years during the same summer period. 67
Slide 68: Evolution of Day-Ahead market prices during the summer period
Analysis of the evolution of the Day-Ahead market prices during the summer period For this analysis, the dataset contains only the days that falls above a P75 solar production factor based on the Summer periods (April-August) from 2019 to 2023. Lower DA prices were obtained for 2024 compared to the
Slide 69: Evolution of Day-Ahead Net Position during the summer period
Analysis of the evolution of the Day-Ahead Net Position during the summer period For this analysis, the dataset contains only the days that falls above a P75 solar production factor based on the Summer periods (April-September) from 2019 to 2023. During the solar production peak, Belgium was exporti
Slide 70: System Imbalance
System Imbalance Summer 2024
Slide 71: System Imbalance & ACE
System Imbalance & ACE Significant improvement/changes of the largest contributors in case of positive balance The 7th of April + In combination with the Elia awareness plan, the weather conditions, the larger DA open position, the Total Load Increase Note: More used of International support by othe
Slide 72: Take Aways
-€ elia Take Aways Summer 2024
Slide 73: Take-aways
Take-aways – Summer 2024 was a statistical advantageous scenario compared to period 2019-2023 with – Very few (very) sunny days, especially on weekend days & holidays – Wind production at par – Slight increase of the total load – More often & larger short open position – … giving market parties and
Slide 74: Workshop on shaping the future of Elia forecasting tools
Workshop on shaping the future of Elia forecasting tools 13/11 from 9h until 13h at Elia bd de l’Empereur, room 0.20 (physical + online) Agenda - Presentation from Elia – What is behind our published forecasts of load, solar & wind generation? – KPIs and feedback loops towards providers. – Ongoing e
Slide 75: AOB
AOB • Workshop GUFlex on October 10 • Workshop TF iCAROS on October 21 • Workshop on shaping the future of Elia forecasting tools on November 13 • Next Grid WG on December 12 Grid WG 75
Slide 76: ANNEX
lia ANNEX