Baroda BNP Paribas Gold ETF · NSE:BBNPPGOLD
Baroda BNP Paribas Gold ETF — Baroda BNP Paribas Mutual Fund — Investor Presentation (May 2025)
19 slides from Baroda BNP Paribas Gold ETF's investor presentation, May 2025
Slide 1: Monthly Macro-Insights May 2025
MONTHLY MACRO-INSIGHTS MAY- 2025
Slide 2: Global Economy
Global Economy al Bist veer — MUTUAL FUND
Slide 3: What we cover this month?
What we cover this month? ❑ Will dollar continue the strength? US Economy - Signs of Changing UST- USD relationship ❑ India – Liquidity, Growth and Inflation ❑ RBI Rates and Liquidity Outlook! 26/05/2025 3
Slide 4: Key Events in April-May 2025
Key Events in April- May-2025 ❑ RBI reduced the repo rate by cumulatively by 50bps to 6.00% from 6.5% in Feb-25 and April-25 policy. ❑ US tariffs lowered for China, but still remain higher than before. ❑ US Fed meeting delivered a pause after the uncertainty around US inflation and US tariffs. ❑ RBI
Slide 5: Global Trade – Moderated Volumes
Global Trade – Moderated Volumes Global PMI: New Export Orders • Weaker current market conditions combined with rising levels of economic uncertainty and trade volatility had a noticeable impact on business confidence during April. • Sentiment fell to a near five-year low, with weaker outlooks in th
Slide 6: US – US Uncertainty and Global Risk Reversion
US – US Uncertainty and Global Risk Reversion US Economic uncertainity and volatility US tariffs 500 Global financial crisis 70 450 Covid pandemic US dot com bubble 60 400 350 50 300 40 250 30 200 150 20 100 10 50 Euro China crisis 0 0 US Economic Policy Uncertainty Composite Index (LHS) VIX (RHS) •
Slide 7: Dollar decline – A sneak into the past?
Dollar decline – A sneak into the past ? Dollar – Yen Movement The plaza accord 160 300 150 250 140 130 200 120 150 110 100 100 90 50 80 70 0 1-Jun-75 1-Jun-85 1-Jun-02 1-Jun-12 1-Jun-76 1-Jun-77 1-Jun-78 1-Jun-79 1-Jun-80 1-Jun-81 1-Jun-82 1-Jun-83 1-Jun-84 1-Jun-86 1-Jun-87 1-Jun-88 1-Jun-89 1-Jun
Slide 8: Does the dollar depreciation solve US problems?
Does the dollar depreciation solve US problems? US Trade Balance Value billions of dollars 200 0 -200 -400 -600 The plaza accord -800 -1000 Jan-87 Jan-06 Jan-19 Jan-80 Jan-81 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00
Slide 9: The USD depicting cooling US economic strength, UST depicts changing winds
The USD- depicting cooling US economic strength, UST- Depicts changing winds! Changing US Debt Ownership in $ Billions 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Japan United Kingdom China • The USD-UST duo has recently been moving in tandem with the duo rising and falling parallelly. The reasons can be attri
Slide 10: US Yields – A trend of ups and downs
US Yields – A trend of ups and downs US 10 year benchmark yield 5 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4 3.8 3.6 US rates softened as declining Inflation remains a key concern for FED. A 3.4 stickier inflation print in Feb-25, added to inflation and a fed rate cutting 3.2 cycle expectations grew. the concerns on Trumps
Slide 11: Summary of Events and Our View
Summary of Events and Our View ❑ US Inflation to be a key watch, Why? ▪ FOMC rate cutting cycle to proceed cautiously after Trump tariffs and implying spillovers on inflation. ▪ Quantum of rate cut to come down and even the possibility of no cut if inflation heats up further. ▪ The actual impact on
Slide 12: Domestic Economy
Domestic Economy 26/05/2025 12
Slide 13: Liquidity – In spirit of the stance!
Liquidity – In spirit of the stance! LAF and MCLR 3,00,000 9.1 9.0 2,00,000 8.9 INR in lac crore 1,00,000 8.8 8.7 (%) 0 8.6 -1,00,000 8.5 8.4 -2,00,000 8.3 -3,00,000 8.2 LAF (LHS) MCLR rate (RHS) • Banking and durable liquidity are currently comfortable, and financial conditions have significantly e
Slide 14: Lower brent prices seep into basket price!
Lower brent prices seep into basket price! 85 Brent Prices $/bl Crude Oil FOB Price 80 115.00 116.01 105.00 75 95.00 85.00 70 75.00 65.00 63.40 65 55.00 63.81 60 45.00 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24 Jul-24 Jan-25 Apr-21 Oct-21 Apr-22 Oct-22 Apr-23 Oct-23 Apr-24 Oct-24 Apr-25 • On a
Slide 15: Domestic Inflation – Food driven respite!
Domestic Inflation – Food driven respite! CPI Contributors Headline Inflation 3.5 4.5 10 3 9 2.5 4 2 8 1.5 7 3.5 1 6 0.5 3 5 0 4 -0.5 -1 2.5 3 -1.5 2 -2 2 1 Jun-22 Jun-23 Jun-24 Dec-22 Feb-22 Feb-23 Dec-23 Feb-24 Dec-24 Feb-25 Aug-22 Aug-23 Aug-24 Apr-22 Oct-22 Apr-23 Oct-23 Apr-24 Oct-24 Apr-25 0 F
Slide 16: Production activity reflects sluggish growth!
Production activity reflects sluggish growth! Core Industries Production YoY% 15.00% 12% 9% 9% 10.00% 7% 7% 6% 5% 6% 4% 4% 5.00% 3% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0.00% -5.00% -3% -2% -10.00% -15.00% -13% Coal CrudeOil Natural Gas Refinery Fertilizers Steel Cement Electricity Overall Index Products Average Mar-25 • Pr
Slide 17: Decoding Yield Signals
Decoding Yield Signals Economic Variable Our View Impact on yields Economic activity remains a fragile spot as external environment remains Growth volatile. Inflation trajectory looks optimistic with a few bumps, we expect inflation to Inflation average at 4.1% Y/Y in FY26. Recent measures by RBI ha
Slide 18: Fixed Income Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook • Global monetary policy dynamics have started witnessing bumps in their path to recalibrate the monetary rates. • The decline in the dollar index and US growth will be a key watch. • Trumps tariff threats and spillovers on currencies is the existing risk that is driving the mar
Slide 19: Disclaimers
Disclaimers In the preparation of the material contained in this document, Baroda BNP Paribas Asset Management India Ltd. (“AMC”) has used information that is publicly available, including information developed in-house. The AMC, however, does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and/or complete
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