Thai Oil Public Co. Ltd. · SET:TOP

Thai Oil Public — Investor Presentation (February 2016)

84 slides from Thai Oil Public's investor presentation, Feb 17, 2016

  1. Slide 1: Presentation to Investors February 2016

    Thai Oil Public Company Limited Presentation to Investors February2016

  2. Slide 2: Disclaimer

    -2- Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it. Some statements mad

  3. Slide 3: Corporate Vision, Mission and Values

    -3- Corporate Vision, Mission and Values A LEADING FULLY INTEGRATED REFINING & PETROCHEMICAL VISION COMPANY IN ASIA PACIFIC • To be in top quartile on performance and return on investment • To create a high-performance organization that promotes MISSION teamwork, innovation and trust for sustainabil

  4. Slide 4: Corporate Governance Policy

    -4- Corporate Governance Policy Roles and Responsibilities for Corporate Governance Policy Stakeholders The board of directors, management • Truthfully report company’s situation and and all staff shall commit to moral future trends to all stakeholders equally principles, equitable treatment to all

  5. Slide 5: Thaioil Group Sustainable Development

    -5- Thaioil Group Sustainable Development 3 consecutive years for • Member of DJSI Emerging Markets • Highest Ranked Level in RobecoSAM Gold Class of Global Oil & Gas Companies & 2 consecutive years for • No.1 in ENERGY industry around the WORLD (Industry Group Leader) • No.1 in Oil & Gas Producers

  6. Slide 6: Presentation Agenda

    -6- Presentation Agenda TOP GROUP BUSINESS OVERVIEW KEY FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS STRATEGIC INVESTMENT PLANS MARKET OUTLOOK APPENDIX

  7. Slide 7: TOP Group Business Overview

    -7- TOP Group Business Overview

  8. Slide 8: Strategic Relationship and Operational Integration with PTT

    -8- Strategic Relationship and Operational Integration with PTT Thai Oil’s strong shareholder base 7.5% • Benefits from PTT’s dual role as our major 20.4% shareholder and key 49.1% business partner • All transactions take place at arm’s length 23.0% and in adherence with PTT strong corporate 49.1% g

  9. Slide 9: TOP Group Synergy & Strategic Role in PTT Group Value Chain

    -9- TOP Group Synergy & Strategic Role in PTT Group Value Chain Upstream Intermediate Downstream Solvent Pentane Diversifying to a broad Hexane range of downstream Toluene SOLVENTS The majority of Mixed-Xylene products to enjoy higher refined petroleum profit margins and Paraxylene products are sold

  10. Slide 10: Key Milestones: 54 Years, A Long Track Record of Success

    -10- Key Milestones: 54 Years, A Long Track Record of Success 1961 – 1997 2004 – 2011 Today Capacity expansion and initial stage of Listing, expansion and A leading integrated refining and business diversification diversification petrochemical group in Asia Pacific 1961 1970 2004 • 275 kbd refinery

  11. Slide 11: Thai Oil Group Business Structure

    -11- Thai Oil Group Business Structure 100.0% 100.0% 74.0% PTT 26.0% 100.0% 100.0% Thai Paraxylene Thai Lube Base Thaioil Power Thaioil Marine Thaioil Ethanol Thaioil (TOP) (TPX) (TLB) (TP) (TM) (TET) Aromatics Capacity: Lube Base Oil Sells Electricity/Steam to • 4 Oil & Chemical Tankers Mitr Phol 3

  12. Slide 12: Process Linkage: Beauty of Integration

    -12- Process Linkage: Beauty of Integration PROCESS FLOWCHART Thai Paraxylene ADIP FUELGAS Thai Oil ISOM LPG 20,000 MX HDT-1 MX 40,000 HDT-2 HDT-3 CCR-1 ULG95 85,000 CCR-2 CDU-1 50,000 ULG91 45,000 KMT-1 CDU-2 JET KMT-2 50,000 CDU-3 165,000 KEROSENE HVU-1 Thai Lube Base HVU-2 HVU-3 FCCU HDS-2 10,400

  13. Slide 13: One of Region's Leading Refineries

    -13- One of Region’s Leading Refineries Total Thailand crude refining capacity 1,252 kbd Market shares for refined petroleum product3 Thai Oil 22% Share 30% 31% Nameplate Capacity market market Fang (3 kbpd) shares shares Thai Oil (275 kbpd) PTT’s Principal Refiner Q4/15 FY/15 BCP (120 kbpd) Esso (1

  14. Slide 14: Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets

    -14- Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets Close proximity to the key domestic markets Access to Indochina markets through deep water ports Our strategic location provide us with LAOS 1. Close proximity with the key domestic markets and VIETNAM Indochina Bangkok Sri

  15. Slide 15: Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance

    -15- Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance Crude Assays based on Sources of Product Spread over Domestic demand for TOP configuration* Crude output Dubai (US$/bbl) petroleum products** 1 0% LPG % S = 1.43 % S = 2.52 % S = 0.78 % S = 1.97 Others *** 5% -5.7 API = 32.0 API = 31.2 API =

  16. Slide 16: Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance

    -16- Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance Crude Assays based on Sources of Product Spread over Domestic demand for TOP configuration* Crude output Dubai (US$/bbl) petroleum products** 1 % S = 1.43 % S = 2.52 % S = 0.78 % S = 1.97 Others *** 2% 5% -14.9 LPG API = 32.0 API = 31.2 API =

  17. Slide 17: Strong Domestic Sales despite Flatten Local Demand

    -17- Strong Domestic Sales despite Flatten Local Demand Domestic Oil Demand / Domestic Refinery Intake Domestic Oil Demand *including TOP intake (Excluding TOP = 70%) Utilization = 108% KBD 2014 KBD 95% 1,200 93% 89%92%92% 90%94% 95% 94% 92% 94% 100% 1,000 2015 1.6% 85%83%83% 85% 1,000 80% 800 800 6

  18. Slide 18: Competitive Performance Benchmarking

    -18- Competitive Performance Benchmarking Solomon Associates is the independent 3rd party who applies Comparative Performance Analysis methodology to industry peers in the area of reliability, equipment, utilization, operating expense, gross margin and overall performance range and come up with comp

  19. Slide 19: TOP Group Key Highlights

    -19- TOP Group Key Highlights Thailand’s largest and Diversified earnings 2 one of the region’s through integration 1 most advanced and with, and significant competitive refineries contribution from, our subsidiaries Strategic relationship Strategic location with Industry with high 3 4 5 and operati

  20. Slide 20: Key Financial Highlights

    -20- Key Financial Highlights

  21. Slide 21: 2015 Key Market Drivers Highlights

    Key Highlights -21- 2015 Key Market Drivers Highlights Refinery Implication  Robust refining margins supported by higher gasoline Highest Yearly Mkt GRM cracks from better demand during low oil price, soften since listed 2004 (7.8 vs 5.7 in 2014) crude premium and lower F&L  $26/bbl drop in Dubai

  22. Slide 22: 2015 Key Events / Achievements

    Key Highlights -22- 2015 Key Events / Achievements Key Events / Achievements 2015 TOP Group Net Profit Unit : million THB (MB)  High Refinery run at 108% to capture strong Mkt GRM & optimized run for Net Operating Profit (before tax) Stock G/(L) (before tax) Aromatic & Lube Base Reversal of NRV/(NR

  23. Slide 23: Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost

    Financial -23- Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost Gross Refining Margin Refinery’s Cash Cost (Unit: US$/bbl) (Unit: US$/bbl) Market GRM Accounting GRM (Market GRM + Stock G/L) Operating Cost Interest Expense (net) (excl. one-time non- operating item) 7.8 8.5 5.7 5.9 5.2 5.3 4.5 4.3 5.1 2.1 2.

  24. Slide 24: Financial Performance

    Financial -24- Financial Performance Sales Revenue EBITDA Unit: Million THB Unit: Million THB 447,432 EBITDA (excl stk G/L & NRV) EBITDA (incl stk G/L & NRV) 446,241 399,125 414,575 390,090 31,099 318,391 28,760 293,569 22,808 22,337 25,492 284,123 22,897 23,868 21,393 20,350 17,381 19,713 19,541 14

  25. Slide 25: 2015 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios

    Financial -25- 2015 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios Statements of Financial Position Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 31 Dec 15 1) (Unit: million THB) Total Long-Term Debt Net Debt 193,607 192,166 75,093 million THB 22,377 million THB Cash & ST Trade Payable (US$ 2,072 millio

  26. Slide 26: 2015 Dividend Payment

    Financial -26- 2015 Dividend Payment Dividend Policy : Not less than 25% of consolidated net profit after deducting reserves, subject to cash flow and investment plan Unit : THB/Share EPS 2H dividend 9.40 9.19 1H dividend Year Dividend 7.82 8.13 7.28 5.91 6.04 5.97 4.88 4.39 2.75 2.00 2.00 1.00 3.50

  27. Slide 27: Strategic Investment Plans

    -27- Strategic Investment Plans

  28. Slide 28: Broadening Growth, Capturing Step Out, Pursuing Sustainability

    -28- Broadening Growth, Capturing Step Out ,Pursuing Sustainability Vision A Leading fully integrated refining and petrochemical company in Asia Pacific END Vision Top quartile Top Qrt ROIC & DJSI Measurement performer NP Growth (Sustainability) by 2021 • Operational excellence • Organic growth i.e.

  29. Slide 29: Thaioil Group Investment Matrix

    -29- Thaioil Group Investment Matrix New Geography Myanmar, Vietnam, Indonesia  Integrated Downstream (B2B, B2C/retail, logistics, trading) New Business AEC (Technology driven)  Specialties Core Business Growth Integrated Refinery Solvent, Marine, Power, Ethanol Thailand Refinery Downstream

  30. Slide 30: Strategic Investment Plan

    Updated CAPEX plan -30- Strategic Investment Plan CAPEX Plan (Unit US$ million) Remaining capital investment Our CAPEX Projects COD Total Project Cost investments will 2015 2016 2017 2018 cover improvements Refinery upgrading 2014 137 in plants reliability, efficiency & Reliability, efficiency and f

  31. Slide 31: Key Project Progress Update: LAB

    Ongoing Project Update -31- Key Project Progress Update : LAB Project Detail Progress • TPX JV with Mitsui (75% : 25%) 100%* • Upgrade existing Benzene and Kerosene into higher Linear Alkyl valued product; LAB which is an intermediate feedstock Benzene in production of surfactant (detergent) (LAB) •

  32. Slide 32: LABIX Commercial Sales Plan

    Ongoing Project Update -32- LABIX Commercial Sales Plan “In 2016 Thailand LAB Demand is estimated at 79 Kton/Yr (100% Import) and after starts up LABIX targets domestic market share at 70-80% ” Thailand LAB Demand & LABIX Target Domestic Market Share LABIX Planned Domestic vs Export Sale (%) Other S

  33. Slide 33: Key Project Progress Update: 2 SPPs

    Ongoing Project Update -33- Key Project Progress Update : 2 SPPs Project Detail Progress • Low risk power business enhance income stability 99%* • Support reliability of electricity & steam supply for TOP Group TOP SPP • Develop 2 new SPP power plants; (2 blocks of SPP) • Total power capacity 239 MW

  34. Slide 34: Key Project Progress Update: 2 SPPs Business Model

    Ongoing Project Update -34- Key Project Progress Update : 2 SPPs Business Model 90 MW 90 MW Block 1 * Capacity : 124 MW 8 MW COD : April 2016 Natural Gas 28 MW Block 2 Capacity : 115 MW * 6 MW COD : June 2016 Steam 498 T/H * Internally-used electricity for 2 blocks = 6 MW Steam Expected EBITDA Elect

  35. Slide 35: 2016 Key Margin Improvement Projects

    Other Key Margin Improvement Projects in 2016 -35- 2016 Key Margin Improvement Projects “Besides LAB & TOP SPP, other 2016 Key margins improvement projects from current Business Units will help further enhance Group Margins / EBITDA / Net Profit” Project Category Example of Sub-Activities Benefits C

  36. Slide 36: Study Project: Clean Fuel Project (CFP)

    Project Update -36- Study Project : Clean Fuel Project (CFP) Main objectives of CFP  Enhance competitive advantage of the refinery and maintain 1st quartile performer  Enhance capability to upgrade lower value product into higher value product and ability to process heavier (cheaper) crude oil CFP

  37. Slide 37: 1H16 & 2016 Market Outlook

    -37- 1H16 & 2016 MARKET OUTLOOK • Crude Oil • Petroleum Products • Aromatics • Base Oil & Bitumen • LAB

  38. Slide 38: Crude Oil

    & ~ Group CRUDE OIL -38-

  39. Slide 39: 2016 Global GDP Growth by IMF

    Macroeconomics & Crude Prices -39- 2016 Global GDP Growth by IMF IMF estimated the 2016’s Global GDP growth at 3.4% 2014 2015 2016 Growth (%YoY) China US EU World Jan-16(1) Oct-15(2) Jan-16(1) Oct-15(2) Jan-16(1) 12% USA 2.4% 2.6% 2.5% 2.8% 2.6% 9% EU 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 6% China 7.3% 6.9% 6.9%

  40. Slide 40: Global Oil Demand Growth Projection

    Refinery -40- Global Oil Demand Growth Projection IEA forecasted 2016’s global oil demand to increase by 1.2 MBD mainly from Asia Demand Growth IEA (MBD) (MBD) 9 . .9 5 9 .5 .7 The global oil demand will grow by 1.2 MBD in 2016 95.7 . Source: IEA, Oil Market Report Jan 2016

  41. Slide 41: Non-OPEC Supply Growth Projection

    Refinery -41- Non-OPEC Supply Growth Projection IEA estimated 2016’s Non-OPEC oil supply growth to contract by 600 KBD Remarks: Regional Non-OPEC Supply excl. Biofuels/Processing G/(L) ≈ 0.1 Non OPEC Growth IEA Supply (MBD) (MBD) As lower prices and reduced spending take their toll, non-OPEC 5 .3 .

  42. Slide 42: Crude Oil Market: Oil Market Rebalance is Still at Risk

    Refinery -42- Crude Oil Market: Oil Market Rebalance is Still at Risk Dubai Price Movement $/BBL Shale Oil Declining US Greek Debt China’s Stock OPEC failed to Iran’s Nuclear Discussions to Boom Oil Rigs Default Market Crash agree on an Sanction Lifted Stabilize Oil 100 output ceiling Prices 80 60 4

  43. Slide 43: OPEC to Maintain High Production

    Refinery -43- 1 OPEC to Maintain High Production A OPEC to Retain Market Share B Iran to Add 300-500 KBD of Exports by 1H-16 Record-High OPEC Production Iran’s Crude Exports by Destination MBD MBD Indonesia 2.5 34 rejoined OPEC U.S. and EU Sanctions +300-500 2.0 KBD 33 OPEC failed to agree on quota

  44. Slide 44: Resilient Non-OPEC Production in Short Term

    Refinery -44- 2 Resilient Non-OPEC Production in Short Term A No Sign of Significant Production Shutdown B New Project Delays Due to Low Oil Prices Operating Cash Cost Curve Break-Even Production Cost Curve $/BBL $/BBL >$80/BBL U.S. Stripper Wells 120 120 >$40/BBL $65-80/BBL Canadian Oil Sands, 100

  45. Slide 45: Decelerated Global Oil Demand Growth

    Refinery -45- 3 Decelerated Global Oil Demand Growth A Global Oil Demand to Slow Down B Lower Crude Oil Surplus in 2H-16 Global Oil Demand Growth (YoY) MBD Oil Market Balance MBD MBD 2.0 + 1.2 MBD YoY 98 2016 in 2016 Demand: + 1.2 MBD YoY Supply: + 0.7 MBD YoY 3.0 96 1.5 94 2.0 1.0 92 1.0 0.5 90 88

  46. Slide 46: Petroleum Products

    & ~ Group PETROLEUM PRODUCTS -46-

  47. Slide 47: Moderate Refinery Margin in 2016 on Low Oil Prices

    Refinery -47- Moderate Refinery Margin in 2016 on Low Oil Prices Singapore Cracking GRM ($/BBL) 9.2 8.5 7.9 8.0 7.6 5.8 6.3 5.8 6.1 4.8 5.3 Y2014 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Y2015 1Q16TD 2016 Actual Forecast Sources: Reuters, TOP’s estimate ($/BBL) Q4-15 2015 Q1TD16* 2016(F)** Key Highli

  48. Slide 48: Still High Gasoline Cracks Due to Solid Demand Growth on Low Oil Prices

    Refinery -48- Still High Gasoline Cracks Due to Solid Demand 1 Growth on Low Oil Prices A Temporarily Soft Gasoline from High Stock C Low Oil Prices Continue to Support Demand US Gasoline Stocks Asia Pacific Gasoline Demand MBBL MBD Y2016 : +358 KBD 280 7.0 260 Heavy snow impacted more than 50 Ramad

  49. Slide 49: Late Winter and Refinery Maintenance to Support Jet/Kero in 1H-16

    Refinery -49- Late Winter and Refinery Maintenance to Support 2 Jet/Kero in 1H-16 A Sharp Drop in Temperatures Boosts Demand C Tight Global Market Refinery during Q2-16 on Refinery Maintenance MTA* (MBD) Temperatures in North Asia Global Refinery Maintenance (ºC) 5 MBD 0 7 -5 1H-16 Refinery MTA : +4

  50. Slide 50: Softer Gasoil on Oversupply, but Expect to Recover in Late March

    Refinery -50- Softer Gasoil on Oversupply, but Expect to Recover 3 in Late March on Seasonal Demand and Refinery MTA A Ample Gasoil Stocks on High Refinery Run B Supply floods Asia on Warm Winter in EU US/ARA/Singapore Gasoil Stock Saudi Arabia and India Gasoil Export MBBL KBD 220 High Run since Dec

  51. Slide 51: Demand Growth Outpacing Supply Due to Refinery Closures

    Refinery -51- Demand Growth Outpacing Supply Due to Refinery Closures CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME Middle East China Australia Japan India Vietnam Other AP Net Addition AP & ME Demand KBD 1200 1000 800 624 600 454 503 445 400 246 200 135 0 -200 -400 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Note:

  52. Slide 52: Thailand Petroleum Demand Growth

    Thailand’s Oil Demand -52- Thailand’s Oil Demand in 2016 Thailand Petroleum Demand Growth Year on Year Y 2014 Y 2015 Y 2016(B) Mogas (A) +3.8% +13.3% +4.0% Jet/Kero -1.0% +9.7% +2.6% Diesel (A) +0.9% +4.0% +2.2% Fuel Oil -3.9% -1.4% -0.7% Total +1.0% +6.6% +2.6% GDP +0.9% +2.8%(C) +3.5%(C) Thailand’

  53. Slide 53: Aromatics

    & ~ Group AROMATICS -53-

  54. Slide 54: Stable Aromatics Market on Reduced Run Rate and Improved Demand

    Aromatics -54- Stable Aromatics Market on Reduced Run Rate and Improved Demand Aromatics Market PX-ULG95 ($/TON) BZ-ULG95 ($/TON) 371 327 279 273 288 268 285 252 255 246 233 256 254 220 207 98 115 101 97 74 Y2014 Y2015 4Q14 3Q15 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 1Q15 2Q15 4Q15 2016 2016 Y2014 Y2015 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14

  55. Slide 55: Stable PX Market on PX Run Cuts and Firm U.S. Demand

    Aromatics -55- 1 Stable PX Market on PX Run Cuts and Firm U.S. Demand A Reduced Run Rate Support PX and Gasoline Market B AP Nameplate PX Capacity Turnaround Utilization Mil TON AP/ME PX Demand and Capacity Mil TON 50 90% 5.0 40 46.9 4.0 44.1 41.1 37.6 80% 30 33.3 34.4 3.0 Unplanned Shutdown in 31.0

  56. Slide 56: Stable BZ Market on Rising Chinese and U.S. Imports

    Aromatics -56- 2 Stable BZ Market on Rising Chinese and U.S. Imports A Improved BZ Demand Supports Operating Rate B AP Nameplate BZ Capacity Turnaround Mil TON Utilization Mil TON AP/ME BZ Demand and Capacity 3.0 50 80% 40 37.7 38.7 39.6 2.0 30 34.4 36.8 Unplanned Shutdown 26.6 27.6 70% in China and

  57. Slide 57: Base Oil & Bitumen

    & ~ Group BASE OIL & BITUMEN -57-

  58. Slide 58: Stable Base Oil Spread in 2016

    Base Oil & Bitumen -58- Stable Base Oil Spread in 2016 on Gr.I Plant Closure and Low Fuel Oil Price Base Oil Market Base Oil Benchmark Spread ($/TON) 495 486 501 500 493 506 450 431 369 399 4Q15 Y2014 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 Y2015 Y2016 500SN-HSFO (Actual) Forecast Key Highlights in 2016

  59. Slide 59: Stable Base Oil Spread in 2016

    Base Oil & Bitumen -59- Stable Base Oil Spread in 2016 on Gr.I Plant Closure and Low Fuel Oil Price Capacity Growth Mil TON 4.7 Group 3 1.1 Group 2 1.1 -0.2 Group 1 Net Capacity 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sources: Argus 2016 and TOP Estimate 500SN Group I vs HSFO Price Pressure from crude tumbling and new

  60. Slide 60: Lower Bitumen Spread in 2016 on Softer Chinese Demand

    Base Oil & Bitumen -60- Lower Bitumen Spread in 2016 on Softer Chinese Demand Bitumen Benchmark Spread ($/TON) A Import Volume of Major Asian Players 98 KTON/MONTH Growth rate: 28% CAGR in 2013-2015 85 82 56 23 20 567 461 346 -32 -69 -77 -66 Y2014 Y2015 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 2016 2

  61. Slide 61: Conclusion

    & ~ Group CONCLUSION -61-

  62. Slide 62: 2016 Market Outlook Conclusion

    Conclusion -62- 2016 Market Outlook Conclusion Moderate margins as demand outpaces refinery Refinery additions Stable Aromatics market on reduced production Aromatics and firm demand in China and U.S. Stable Base oil spread on low Fuel Oil price and Gr.I plant closures, despite new Gr.II capacity Lu

  63. Slide 63: Appendix

    -63- APPENDIX • Q4&2015 Performance analysis • World GRM / Inventories • Thailand petroleum demand by products

  64. Slide 64: Q4&2015 Performance Analysis

    -64- Q4&2015 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS

  65. Slide 65: Thailand Leading Refinery: Superior Utilization/Commercial

    Refining -65- Thailand Leading Refinery : Superior Utilization/ Commercial Total Thailand Crude Refining Capacity 1,252 kbd1 TOP’s Refinery Utilization vs. Industry4 Thai Oil 22% Share Fang Nameplate Capacity TOP Refinery Overall Industry (Thailand) (3 kbd) Thai Oil (275 kbd) 108% 110% 107% 108% PTT

  66. Slide 66: Q4/15: Healthy Mkt GRM Driven by Recovered Middle Distillate Spread

    Refining -66- Q4/15: Healthy Mkt GRM Driven by Recovered Middle Distillate Spread Dubai Crude Price & Key Petroleum Product Spreads Refinery Utilization 2014 2015 2014 2014 Q4/15 2015 $/bbl Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY15 FY14 98% 110% 108% DUBAI (DB) 104.4 106.1 101.5 74.4 51.9 61.3 49.7 40.7 50.9 96.

  67. Slide 67: Q4/15: Higher Aromatics Margins Supported by High Seasonal Demand

    Aromatics -67- Q4/15: Higher Aromatics Margins Supported by High Seasonal Demand Aromatics Spreads and Margins Aromatics Production 2014 2015 2014 2014 Q4/15 2015 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY15 FY14 82% 85% 81% PX*-ULG95 273 220 371 252 255 246 233 288 256 279 Market Highlight BZ-ULG95 285 254 3

  68. Slide 68: Q4/15: Lube/Bitumen Stay Firm on Low Oil Price

    Lube Base Oil -68- Q4/15: Lube/Bitumen Stay Firm on Low Oil Price Base Oil & Bitumen Spreads & Margins Base oil Production 2014 2015 2014 2014 Q4/15 2015 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY15 FY14 92% 90% 86% 500SN-HSFO 486 501 500 493 369 399 506 450 431 495 Market Highlight BITUMEN-HSFO (69) (77) (66

  69. Slide 69: Beauty of Integration…Sustainable GIM

    Performance Breakdown -69- Beauty of Integration…Sustainable GIM (Unit: US$/bbl) 8.2 8.7 9.9 7.1 12.2 8.2 4.8 2.9 1.4 6.1 Product to Feed Q1/14 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/15 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/15 FY/14 8.2 8.8 7.4 6.6 8.5 7.8 5.1 4.4 4.6 5.7 Crude Marketing GRM (excluded stock gain / loss) Q1/14 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/15 Q2 Q3 Q4 F

  70. Slide 70: Q4 & 2015: Performance Breakdown

    Performance Breakdown -70- Q4 & 2015: Performance Breakdown Utilization/Production (%) & Net Profit (million THB) Key Points • TOP: max run to capture decent GRM & no major maintenance ***74% holding • TPX/TLB: improved contribution from higher P2F & lower energy cost (tracking lower crude price) •

  71. Slide 71: 2015 TOP Group Consolidated P&L

    Financial -71- 2015 TOP Group Consolidated P&L (million THB) Q4/15 Q3/15 QoQ+/(-) Q4/14R YoY+/(-) 2015 2014R YoY+/(-) Sales Revenue 68,446 74,721 (6,275) 88,545 (20,099) 293,569 390,090 (96,521) Hedging Gain 1,053 547 506 328 725 1,489 2,218 (729) EBITDA 6,348 2,931 3,417 (5,373) 11,721 25,492 2,651

  72. Slide 72: 2015 TOP Group Consolidated Cash Flow

    Financial -72- 2015 TOP Group Consolidated Cash Flow (Unit: Million THB) (Unit: Million THB) Operating Cash Flow Investments 2015 2014R 2015 2014R Operating Cash Flow 31,708 24,432 Investments 2,530 (20,346) Net income & non-cash adj. 25,453 7,763 + ST investments 12,881 (1,734) CAPEX (PP&E) & other

  73. Slide 73: Appendix

    -73- APPENDIX • World GRM / Inventories • Thailand petroleum demand by products

  74. Slide 74: Asian Margin Vs. US-EU Margin

    World GRM -74- Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin 93.85% 62.96% 65.12% Total Capacity: 17.5 MBD Total Capacity: 17.0 MBD Total Capacity: 4.9 MBD Source: EIA, Norwegian Energy, Thai Oil

  75. Slide 75: Crude Inventory

    Inventories -75- Crude Inventory Source: Norwegian Energy

  76. Slide 76: Global Distillate Inventory

    Inventories -76- Global Distillate Inventory Source: Norwegian Energy

  77. Slide 77: Fuel Oil Inventory

    Inventories -77- Fuel Oil Inventory Source: Norwegian Energy

  78. Slide 78: China's Product Export

    China Export -78- China’s Product Export Source: Norwegian Energy

  79. Slide 79: Domestic LPG Demand

    Domestic demand -79- Domestic LPG Demand Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand Highlight • In 2015, LPG demand fell steeply by 10.0%YoY on account of lower usages in cooking, transportation and petrochemical sectors. Most of the decline came from cooking sector that faced higher retail prices and slowly-th

  80. Slide 80: Domestic Gasoline Demand

    Domestic demand -80- Domestic Gasoline Demand Thailand Gasoline Demand GASOLINE Demand Highlight • In 2015, Mogas demand jumped sharply by 13.3% from the same period last year to an average 26.40 mml/day. This was mainly due to a significant drop in retail prices and low-based last year which had th

  81. Slide 81: Domestic Jet Demand

    Domestic demand -81- Domestic Jet Demand Thailand JET-A1 Demand JET Demand Highlight • In 2015, Jet consumption increased significantly by 9.6% over the corresponding period last year mainly owning to reviving tourism sector. The expansion in tourism sector was a result of the return of Chinese and

  82. Slide 82: Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand

    Domestic demand -82- Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand Thailand Gasoil Demand Diesel Demand Highlight • In 2015, Diesel demand rose gradually by 4.0% YoY as relatively low retail prices boosted the consumption amidst strong agricultural demand from the peaking of harvesting season. Nevertheless, demand

  83. Slide 83: Domestic Fuel Oil Demand

    Domestic demand -83- Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Thailand Fuel Oil Demand FUEL OIL Demand Highlight • In 2015, Fuel Oil consumption dropped moderately by 1.7% from a year earlier as a result of lower amount of maintenance day of natural gas fields from Myanmar comparing to the last year. Consequently,

  84. Slide 84: Thank You

    -84- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: ir@thaioilgroup.com Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976

Thai Oil Public Company — Investor Presentation (February 2016) on 6ix