Stockland · ASX:SGP
Stockland — H1 2019 Earnings Presentation
73 slides from Stockland's earnings presentation, Feb 20, 2019
Slide 1: 1H19 Annexures: Creating Sustainable Communities
For personal use only 1H19 Annexures Creating Sustainable Communities 31 December 2018 1H19 Results Annexure FROG PARK, AURA, QLD
Slide 2: Contents
Contents For personal use only Section Page About Stockland A03 Group Finance A12 Commercial Property A28 Retail Town Centre A34 Workplace and Logistics A39 Communities: A47 Residential A48 Retirement Living A60 Research A63 A2 1H19 Results Annexure
Slide 3: About Stockland
About For personal use only Stockland 1H19 Results Annexure CARDINAL FREEMAN, SYDNEY, NSW
Slide 4: Stockland quick facts
Stockland quick facts For personal use only Trust Corporation Retail Town Centres Workplace Logistics Residential Retirement living STOCKLAND SHELLHARBOUR NSW PICCADILLY COMPLEX SYDNEY WARWICK FARM SYDNEY HIGHLANDS MELBOURNE MERNDA MELBOURNE Create market leading Optimise returns Grow and develop Ma
Slide 5: Strategic mix
Strategic mix For personal use only ASSETS ASSETS OPERATING OPERATING TARGET 31 DECEMBER 2018 31 DECEMBER 2017 PROFIT 1H19 PROFIT 1H18 RECURRING Commercial Property 67% 69% 68% 61% Retirement Living 7% 8% 4% 5% Other and unallocated corporate overheads - - (3%) (3%) Total recurring 70 – 80% 74% 77%
Slide 6: Capital management
Capital management Disciplined capital allocation framework For personal use only Target portfolio allocation Disciplined capital allocation framework Capital strength CAPITAL ALLOCATION MEDIUM TERM TARGET AS DECEMBER 2018 CAPITAL ALLOCATION Targets Target IRR’s COMMUNITIES • Capital partnering 7%+
Slide 7: We are well positioned
We are well positioned With a diverse portfolio1,2 For personal use only ALL STATES CP RESI RL TOTAL NSW CP RESI RL TOTAL Number of Number of 74 59 68 201 33 12 20 65 properties/ projects properties/ projects Book value $10.7b $3.5b $1.6b $15.8b Book value $6.6b $0.5b $0.5b $7.6b SGP portfolio % 67%
Slide 8: Key residential communities - Sydney
Key residential communities Located in connected, population growth corridors1 Sydney For personal use only Average annual growth 2016 – 2021 by LGA (per annum) Greater than 2% 1.5% - 2% 1% - 1.5% 0.5% - 1% Less than 0.5% 1. Source: Location IQ A8 1H19 Results Annexure
Slide 9: Key residential communities - Melbourne
Key residential communities Located in connected, population growth corridors1 - Melbourne For personal use only Melbourne Average annual growth 2016 – 2021 by LGA (per annum) Greater than 2% 1.5% - 2% 1% - 1.5% 0.5% - 1% Less than 0.5% 1. Source: Location IQ A9 1H19 Results Annexure
Slide 10: Key residential communities - Brisbane, Perth
Key residential communities Located in connected, population growth corridors1 - Brisbane (LHS), Perth (RHS) For personal use only Brisbane Perth Greater than 2% 1.5% - 2% 1% - 1.5% 0.5% - 1% Less than 0.5% 1. Source: Location IQ A10 1H19 Results Annexure
Slide 11: Retirement Living: Strong demand drivers
Retirement Living Strong demand drivers For personal use only Compelling demand fundamentals Australian population aged 65+1 growing at significantly faster pace than under 65 population Over 65: 2.7% CAGR over next 15 years 3.5% Under 65: 3.1% 2.9% 1.3% CAGR over next 15 years 2.3% Growth rate 1.3%
Slide 12: Group Finance Annexure
For personal use only Group Finance Annexure 1H19 Results Annexure TRINITI BUSINESS CAMPUS, SYDNEY, NSW
Slide 13: Profit summary
Profit summary For personal use only 1H19 ($M) 1H18($M) Residential Communities EBIT (before interest in COGS) 170 232 Commercial Property EBIT 277 275 Retirement Living EBIT 22 18 Consolidated segment EBIT 469 525 Amortisation of lease incentives and lease fees 39 36 Straight-line rent adjustments
Slide 14: FFO and AFFO reconciliation to PCA guidelines
FFO and AFFO reconciliation to PCA guidelines The table below shows the reconciliation of statutory profit to FFO with reference to the definitions outlined in the Property For personal use only Council of Australia (PCA) white paper “Voluntary best practice guidelines for disclosing FFO and AFFO” P
Slide 15: Net interest gap
Net interest gap For personal use only 1H19 1H18 INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST DEFERRED TOTAL INTEREST DEFERRED TOTAL DEFERRED INTEREST ($M) INTEREST ($M) ($M) INTEREST ($M) ($M) ($M) Interest income (2) – (2) (1) – (1) Interest expense 93 23 116 97 11 108 Non-cash adjustments for unwinding of present v
Slide 16: Return on assets, return on equity
Return on assets, return on equity For personal use only 2018 2017 CASH AVG. CASH RETURN CASH AVG. CASH RETURN COMMENTARY PROFIT ($M) INVESTED (%) PROFIT ($M) INVESTED (%) ($B) ($B) Retail Town Centres 426 5.5 7.8% 408 5.2 7.8% Logistics 155 2.0 7.8% 143 1.9 7.6% Reflects recent disposals and improv
Slide 17: Reconciliation between return on equity table values and accounting results
Reconciliation between return on equity table values and accounting results For personal use only Reconciliation of Group return Reconciliation of capital employed in ROE in ROE calculation to FFO calculation to statutory net assets AVERAGE FOR AVERAGE FOR 2018 ($M) 2017($M) 2018 ($B) 2017 ($B) Cash
Slide 18: Stockland return on equity methodology
Stockland return on equity methodology For personal use only Residential Commercial Retirement Debt (incl. Town homes Property Living Funding & Apartments) EBIT (including cash loss Operating profit before EBIT Cash interest paid less Numerator realised on impaired amortisation of lease interest inc
Slide 19: Cash flow summary
Cash flow summary Cash flow ($m) For personal use only 1H19 1H18 1,400 Operating CF before land acquisitions $186m $570m 1,200 INCLUDES RESIDENTIAL CASH FLOWS 1,000 AS FOLLOWS2 Undrawn 800 Funds (254) Sales and other Revenue $660m $873m 920 587 600 Current Year Stage costs ($122m) ($184m) (329) Undr
Slide 20: Cost Management
Cost Management For personal use only 1H19 ($M) 1H18($M) Residential 92 84 • Diligent approach to managing cost remains embedded across the Group Retirement Living 18 19 • Residential increase driven primarily by the timing of direct project costs Commercial Property 9 8 • Increase in unallocated co
Slide 21: Long dated, diverse debt
Long dated, diverse debt For personal use only Long-dated drawn debt maturity profile (WADM 5.3 years) 1 Committed facilities of $5.0bn Drawn Debt of $4.4bn Bank debt1 $M Bank debt $675m Bank debt EMTNs EMTNs 1000 $1,120m 15% $1,179m $1,179m 24% Commercial paper 24% HKD, 27% HKD 900 6% 6% Commercial
Slide 22: Cost of debt and hedge profile
Cost of debt and hedge profile For personal use only Cost of debt for 1H19 Historically high fixed hedge rates have been reduced in future years to positively impact the Group’s WACD DEBT ($M)1 TOTAL DEBT (%)2 INTEREST RATE (%) $ Forecast Hedge Rate3 3.5 Hedged debt 3,340 75% 3.4% 4.4% 3.0 Floating
Slide 23: Debt summary
Debt summary For personal use only FACILITY FACILITY LIMIT ($M)1 AMOUNT DRAWN ($M)1,2 Bank Debt 1,220 675 Commercial Paper 181 181 Debt Capital Markets Domestic Medium Term Notes 560 560 • A$269m USPP matured in October 18 USPP 1,824 1,824 Euro Medium Term Notes 1,179 1,179 Bank Debt Total Debt 4,96
Slide 24: Debt summary (continued)
Debt summary (continued) For personal use only FACILITY ISSUED DEBT ($M)1 FACILITY MATURITY FACILITY ISSUED DEBT ($M)1 FACILITY MATURITY DOMESTIC MEDIUM TERM NOTE FACILITY (MTN) - USPP 71 Jul 2019 - USPP 90 Jul 2020 - MTN 150 Sep 2019 - USPP 176 Sep 2021 - USPP 28 Jun 2022 - MTN 160 Nov 2020 - USPP
Slide 25: Covenant calculations as at December 2018
Covenant calculations as at 31 December 2018 Going forward the TL/TTA covenant has been replaced with Financial Indebtedness/TTA and the limit increased to 50% For personal use only AS AT STATUTORY GEARING COVENANT ADJUSTMENTS ($M) As at 31 December, gearing covenants limited to 30 JUNE 2018 BALANCE
Slide 26: Balance sheet summary
Balance sheet summary For personal use only 31 DECEMBER 2018 ($M) 30 JUNE 2018 ($M) Cash 178 333 REAL ESTATE RELATED ASSETS - Commercial Property 10,621 10,562 - Residential 3,606 3,432 - Retirement Living 1,495 1,443 - Other 36 37 Retirement Living Gross-Up 2,732 2,724 Intangible assets 192 194 Oth
Slide 27: Stockland corporation income tax reconciliation
Stockland corporation income tax reconciliation For personal use only 1H19 1H18 STATUTORY PROFIT ($M) STATUTORY PROFIT ($M) Net profit before tax 318 610 Less: Trust profit and Intergroup eliminations (271) (395) Corporation profit/(loss) before tax B 47 215 Prima facie tax expense @ 30% (14) (65) T
Slide 28: Commercial Property Annexure
Commercial For personal use only Property Annexure 1H19 Results Annexure STOCKLAND BIRTINYA, QLD
Slide 29: Commercial Property: Portfolio weightings and valuation movements
Commercial Property Portfolio weightings and valuation movements For personal use only Commercial Property assets: $10.5b1 Retail Town Centres Workplace Logistics $7.2b $0.8b $2.5b 37 properties 5 properties 29 properties VIC 19.4% 1,044,958 sqm Qld 25.0% 111,461 sqm 1,422,042 sqm gross lettable net
Slide 30: Commercial Property: Funds from operations
Commercial Property Funds from operations For personal use only RETAIL WORKPLACE LOGISTICS TRADING PROFIT NET OVERHEAD COSTS TOTAL $M 1H19 1H18 1H19 1H18 1H19 1H18 1H19 1H18 1H19 1H18 1H19 1H18 Operating EBIT 197 190 18 19 71 66 - 1 (9) (8) 277 268 Adjust for: Amortisation of fit out 23 20 3 4 3 3 -
Slide 31: Commercial Property Portfolio: Trend in cap rates over time
Commercial Property Portfolio Trend in cap rates over time For personal use only Retail 7.3% 7.4% 7.2% 7.1% 7.0% 6.8% 6.5% 6.1% 5.9% 5.8% 5.9% FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 1H19 Workplace 7.9% 8.0% 7.7% 7.9% 7.9% 7.7% 7.4% 7.0% 6.4% 6.0% 5.9% FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY
Slide 32: Retail Town Centres: Portfolio capitalisation rates
Retail Town Centres Portfolio capitalisation rates For personal use only AS AT 30 JUN 2006 % Allocation AS AT 31 DEC 2018 % Allocation Regional 14% Regional 56% Sub-Regional 78% Sub-Regional 36% Neighbourhood and Other 8% Neighbourhood and Other 8% 8.5% Retail Portfolio Neighbourhood and other 8.0%
Slide 33: Commercial Property: Revaluation and book value
Commercial Property Revaluation and book value For personal use only Commercial Property book values: $10.5b 1 ($b) 11.0 0.3 (0.2) 10.0 86% 9.0 10.5 10.4 of all properties by value were independently 8.0 valued over the past nine months 7.0 30 June 2018 Dev/Capex Disposal 31 December 2018 NET REVALU
Slide 34: Retail Town Centres: Performance
Retail Town Centres Performance For personal use only Retail FFO movements between 1H18 and 1H19 ($M) KEY METRICS 1H19 1H18 (STABLE PORTFOLIO) Occupancy 99.4% 99.5% 13 (6) Specialty occupancy costs1 15.0% 15.4% - Regional 16.2% 17.1% 2 218 - Sub-regional 13.9% 14.0% 209 - Neighbourhood centres 15.0%
Slide 35: Retail Town Centres: Sales growth for stable basket centres
Retail Town Centres Sales growth for stable basket centres For personal use only Stable centres1 represent 84% of book value for this period 12 MONTH 6 MONTH TOTAL MAT SGP TOTAL COMPARABLE COMPARABLE ($M) MAT GROWTH CENTRES CENTRES GROWTH GROWTH Total MAT Growth Comparable MAT Growth 6 Month Compara
Slide 36: Strong sales performance and diversified rental income
Strong sales performance and diversified rental income For personal use only Locations Specialty sales/sqm Stockland average1: $13,255 $12,598 $9,295/sqm $11,927 $10,532 $10,100 $9,781 $9,548 $9,538 $9,516 $9,373 $9,245 $9,127 Nowra Caloundra Bundaberg Gladstone Wetherill Park Merrylands Shellharbou
Slide 37: Retail Town Centres: Significant development pipeline driving growth and returns
Retail Town Centres Significant development pipeline driving growth and returns For personal use only GROWTH TARGET RETURNS COMMUNITY TOWN SUB REGIONAL REGIONAL MAJOR REGIONAL CENTRES 9%+ incremental IRR1 Birtinya 7%+ incremental yield UNDER CONSTRUCTION Baringa (FFO & stabilised) Caloundra Glendale
Slide 38: Retail Town Centres: Development pipeline
Retail Town Centres Development pipeline For personal use only EST. TOTAL EST. COST TO EST. EST. FULLY TOTAL SPECIALTY EST. COST SPENT EST. TOTAL INCREMENTAL COMPLETE COMPLETION LEASED YEAR INCOME INCOME INCREMENTAL TO DATE ($M) RETURN4 (%) COST ($M) ($M) DATE ONE YIELD1 LEASED LEASED2 RETURN3 (%) U
Slide 39: Workplace: Performance
Workplace Performance For personal use only Occupancy and lease expiry – by income FFO movements between 1H18 and 1H19 ($M) Workplace assets by book value 1H19 1H18 $0.7b $0.1b 2 (4) Occupancy 95.5% 91.1% 26 WALE 3.8 yrs 3.3 yrs 24 1H18 FFO Income Growth Disposals 1H19 FFO $0.8b Premium, A Grade B G
Slide 40: Logistics: Performance
Logistics Performance For personal use only Occupancy and lease expiry – by income FFO movements between 1H18 and 1H19 ($M) Logistics assets by book value 1H19 1H18 4 $1.7b $0.8b Occupancy 98% 98.8% 3 81 WALE 5.2 yrs 4.2 yrs 74 1H18 FFO Income Growth Development 1H19 FFO $2.5b Logistics Business Par
Slide 41: Workplace and Logistics: Growing & activating the development pipeline
Workplace and Logistics Growing & activating the development pipeline For personal use only COMPLETED ACTIVE DEVELOPMENT PLANNING UNDERWAY FUTURE WAVE Ingleburn (Stage 3) NSW Yennora (Bldg 1 & 2) Yennora (Bldg 3 & 11) Ingleburn (Stage 2) M - Park M - Park Stage 1 Stage 2-4 KeyWest ( Truganina) Alton
Slide 42: Workplace and Logistics: Development pipeline
Workplace and Logistics Development pipeline For personal use only EST. TOTAL GROSS COST EST. COST EST. EST. FULLY DEVELOPMENT EST. TOTAL INCREMENTAL LETTABLE SPENT TO TO COMPLETE COMPLETION LEASED YEAR EST. RETURN3 TYPE RETURN4 COST ($M) AREA (SQM) DATE ($M) ($M) DATE ONE YIELD2 COMPLETED1 Yennora
Slide 43: Retail Town Centres: Asset values
Retail Town Centres Asset values For personal use only 1H19 BOOK 1H19 BOOK 1H19 1H19 RETAIL PORTFOLIO VAL.INCR/ CHANGE CAP RATE RETAIL PORTFOLIO VALUE VAL.INCR/ CHANGE CAP RATE VALUE ($M) FFO ($M) FFO ($M) (DECR) ($M)1 ($M) (DECR) ($M)1 Stockland Green Hills2 841.0 12.3 1.5% 5.25% 22.9 Stockland Tra
Slide 44: Workplace and Logistics: Asset values
Workplace and Logistics Asset values For personal use only 1H19 1H19 BOOK 1H19 BOOK WORKPLACE PORTFOLIO VAL.INCR/ CHANGE CAP RATE VAL.INCR/ 1H19 VALUE ($M) FFO ($M) LOGISTICS PORTFOLIO VALUE CHANGE CAP RATE (DECR) ($M)1 (DECR) FFO ($M) ($M) ($M)1 Piccadilly Complex (50%)2 287.5 20.3 7.6% 5.63-6.00%
Slide 45: Top tenants by income
Top 20 tenants by income For personal use only RETAIL PORTFOLIO WORKPLACE PORTFOLIO LOGISTICS PORTFOLIO % RANK TENANT TENANT % PORTFOLIO TENANT % PORTFOLIO PORTFOLIO 1 Woolworths Limited 9.9% Jacobs Group 9.8% Optus Administration Pty Ltd 9.5% 2 Wesfarmers Ltd 5.7% IBM Australia Ltd 9.6% Toll Holdin
Slide 46: Commercial Property disposals
Commercial Property disposals For personal use only PROPERTY DISPOSED ASSET CLASS TYPE SETTLEMENT DATE DISPOSAL VALUE1 ($M) Stockland Highlands, Vic Retail Income Producing Jul 2018 47.3 40 Cameron Ave, Belconnen, ACT Workplace Income Producing Jul 2018 23.9 Stockland Bathurst, NSW Retail Income Pro
Slide 47: Communities Annexure
For personal use only Communities Annexure 47 1H19 Results Annexure SIENNA WOOD, PERTH
Slide 48: Residential development pipeline: Major active projects
Residential development pipeline Major active projects For personal use only ANTICIPATED SETTLEMENTS APPROXIMATE LOT APPROX. REMAINING STATE PROJECT STATE PERCENTAGE FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23+ SALES PER ANNUM1 PROJECT LOTS# Aura 560 18,310# North Shore 60 3,590 Qld Newport 260 1,290# All Other Projec
Slide 49: Residential: Twelve projects with first settlements in the next two years
Residential Twelve projects with first settlements in the next two years For personal use only TIMING OF APPROXIMATE PROJECT APPROXIMATE LIFE OF PROJECTS FIRST SETTLEMENTS TOTAL LOTS IN PROJECT# ACT Red Hill FY20 110 3 yrs Bokarina Beach FY19 300# 7 yrs Promenade (Rothwell) FY19 190 2 yrs Kalina (Sp
Slide 50: Residential: Projects completing prior to FY21
Projects completing prior to FY21 Residential For personal use only TIMING OF APPROXIMATE LOTS REMAINING# PROJECT FINAL SETTLEMENTS TOTAL LOTS# (AS AT 31 DEC 2018) NSW McKeachie’s Run FY20 1,060 120 Vale FY19 640 70 Highland Reserve FY20 1,160 30 North Lakes FY20 4,970# 100 North Lakes Business Park
Slide 51: Residential retail sales price
Price per Sqm Residential retail sales price1 For personal use only 1H19 SETTLEMENTS 1H18 SETTLEMENTS AV. SIZE PER AV. PRICE PER AV. SIZE PER AV. PRICE PER STATE NO. LOTS $/SQM NO. LOTS $/SQM LOT SQM LOT $K LOT SQM LOT $K NSW 302 380 429 1,130 642 423 368 871 Qld 510 386 266 689 953 398 261 655 Vic
Slide 52: Residential: Lots settled by location
Lots settled by location Residential For personal use only 3,751 3,364 3,210 3,228 1,123 526 2,853 2,771 705 852 248 2,460 509 778 589 515 524 452 NSW 451 719 348 WA 953 1,015 1,003 1,050 1,094 751 897 Qld 1,107 1,013 1,098 931 830 792 764 Vic 1 1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17 1H18 2H18 1H19 1. BCT included: Se
Slide 53: Net deposits by quarter
Net deposits by quarter1 For personal use only Net deposits by type of buyer 86.1% 86.5% 86.3% 2,301 78.3% 79.1% % Owner 75.6% 76.5% 75.6% 75.2% 74.7% Occupier 571 1,891 1,864 1,792 1,672 1,561 462 1,535 454 438 1,337 1,293 1,295 522 408 338 213 Retail 442 452 280 175 178 Investors 452 464 567 464 4
Slide 54: Residential: Leads and enquiry levels
Leads and enquiry levels Residential For personal use only Lead volumes Majority of our customers are owner occupiers 75% 8,000 Average Monthly Leads Composition of Stockland new leads 6,000 51% 51% 47% 47% 50% 46% 42% 43% 41% 46% First home 43% buyers 4,000 33% 32% 32% 30% 24% 25% 40% 39% Upgraders
Slide 55: Residential: Market Overview
Market Overview Residential For personal use only 1H19 STOCKLAND SUMMARY CALENDAR 2019 MARKET OUTLOOK 1H19 SETTLEMENT VACANT VACANT VOLUMES COMMENTS ON LAND SALES LAND COMMENTS ON STATE (% CHANGE OVER 1H18) OUR SETTLEMENTS IN 1H19 STATE VOLUMES PRICES MARKET OUTLOOK Reduction in NSW is primarily dri
Slide 56: Providing affordable product
Providing affordable product Stockland pricing relative to local median house and unit price For personal use only 840k 835k 762k 739k 568k 567k 573k 589k 529k 525k 551k 522k 510k 507k 485k 475k 459k 445k 451k 425k 405k 401k Stockland H&L entry price1 Median house price2 Elara Willowdale Aura Pallar
Slide 57: Residential: Composition of residential landbank
Composition of residential landbank Residential For personal use only Net funds employed: $2.5b Book value: $3.6b 6% Apartments 5% Workout and disposal ~3,000 lots 10% 7% Aura Aura 10% Active beyond two years 12% Townhomes ~11,000 lots 15% WA 20% WA 20% Active within two years ~13,000 lots 21% Qld 2
Slide 58: Residential: Acquisitions
Residential Acquisitions For personal use only ACQUISITION ACQUISITION VALUE APPROXIMATE PROPERTY ACQUIRED TYPE DATE ($M) NUMBER OF LOTS Wellard Farm consolidation, Perth Masterplanned Community Sep 18 Not disclosed 1,100 ~1,100 lots and dwellings A58 1H19 Results Annexure
Slide 59: Workout contribution and impairment provision balance
Workout contribution and impairment provision balance For personal use only Workout contribution to residential Residential impairment provision utilisation as at 31 December 2018 RESIDENTIAL CORE1 WORKOUT2 TOTAL ($M) Net decrease in impairment – Lots settled 2,205 255 2,460 Utilisation of provision
Slide 60: Retirement Living: Portfolio Statistics
Portfolio Statistics Retirement Living For personal use only PORTFOLIO STATISTICS 1H19 1H18 Net Funds Employed Established villages 65 65 $1,567m $1,469m Established units 9,676 9,653 Goodwill 66 Established units settlements 244 272 168 76 Revaluation Units removed for redevelopment/alternate use 1
Slide 61: Retirement Living: Development pipeline
Development pipeline Retirement Living For personal use only Geographically diverse development pipeline Development pipeline breakup DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE 1H19 Development villages 17 WA SA 10% Total development pipeline units 2,330 2% - Greenfield pipeline units 1,610 - Village renewal pipeline uni
Slide 62: Retirement Living: Strong project pipeline forecast
Strong project pipeline forecast Retirement Living For personal use only CONSTRUCTION TIMEFRAME FUTURE SETTLEMENTS FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23+ Selandra Rise, Melbourne Lightsview, Adelaide Highlands, Melbourne Completed (1H19) Mernda, Melbourne Somerton Park, Adelaide Shine Birtinya, SE Qld Sub-total
Slide 63: Research: Economic overview
For personal use only Research Economic overview 63 1H19 Results Annexure CLOVERTON, MELBOURNE
Slide 64: Australia: Retail drivers
Australia Retail drivers For personal use only Rate of growth in online retail spend 1 falling through 2H18 Consumer Sentiment varying around neutral 2 ABS Retail Spend Growth (RHS) 30% 7% 130 Online Spend Growth (LHS) 25% 6% 120 5% 20% 110 4% 15% 100 3% 10% 90 2% 5% 1% 80 0% 0% 70 2012 2013 2014 20
Slide 65: Population growth continues to underpin dwelling demand
Population growth continues to underpin dwelling demand For personal use only AUS population growth – Annual1,2 QLD and VIC - strong positive interstate migration 1 Annual Rolling Sum (‘000s) 500,000 2.5% 45,000 450,000 Forecast 30,000 Qld 15,000 Vic 400,000 2.0% 0 Annual Growth Rate -15,000 WA 350,
Slide 66: Dwelling commencements maintained at high level historically
Dwelling commencements maintained at high level historically For personal use only Dwelling commencements remain elevated, and still above Dwelling commencements historically strong in NSW and Vic, long term averages on a per capita basis1 still falling in WA1 Dwelling commencements (Annual, ‘000))
Slide 67: National building approvals
National building approvals1 For personal use only NSW house approvals trending down; unit approvals down heavily Vic unit approvals down heavily while house approvals remain strong House: +30% 4,000 4,000 above long term House: average 3,000 +14% 3,000 above long term 2,000 average 2,000 Apartment:
Slide 68: National house and land prices
National house and land prices Largest house price declines occurring in upper end of housing market For personal use only Land Price per sqm1 Capital City House Prices – Rolling Annual Change2 $1,500 40% Sydney 30% $1,000 Melbourne 20% SEQ $500 Perth 10% Brisbane 0% Perth $0 -10% Melbourne 2009 201
Slide 69: Residential Vacancy Rates
Residential Vacancy Rates Rental vacancy rates1 trending up in Sydney and Melbourne, down in Perth and Brisbane For personal use only 6% 5% 4% Sydney 3% Perth Brisbane 2% Melbourne 1% 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1. SQM Research January 2019 A69 1H19 Results Annexure
Slide 70: Vacant land sales volumes down across the country in December quarter
Vacant land sales volumes down across the country in December quarter 1 Quarterly sales For personal use only NSW vacant land sales at lowest level since 2012 Vic vacant land sales at 5-year low 4,000 7,000 6,000 3,000 5,000 4,000 2,000 3,000 1,000 2,000 1,000 0 0 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13
Slide 71: Housing finance
Housing finance First home buyers proportion increasing while owner-occupied housing finance easing For personal use only First Home Buyer lending percentage at six year highs 1 Residential Loan Approvals, weakness concentrated in investor lending 1 30% $m 18 Investor Owner Occupier (ex-refi) 25% 16
Slide 72: Housing affordability trends
Housing affordability trends For personal use only Household Debt-to-Asset ratio stable, Debt-to-Income rising1 Affordability improving in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth as house prices continue to ease, steady in Brisbane as prices hold and wage growth remains weak2 200% Debt to Income Ratio (LHS) 30%
Slide 73: Important Notice
For personal use only Important Notice While every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information, Stockland does not warrant or represent that the information in this presentation is free from errors or omissions or is suitable for your intended use. This presentation contains forward-