Yara International Asa · OSL:YAR
Yara International Asa — Danske Bank lunch presentation (March 2025)
10 slides from Yara International Asa's conference presentation, Mar 4, 2025
Slide 1: Market update
Market update Dag Tore Mo Head of Market Intelligence Danske Bank Oslo, 4 March 2025
Slide 2: Urea prices fob Egypt, indications around USD450/t, in absence of recent trade
Urea prices fob Egypt, indications around USD450/t, in absence of recent trade 500 450 400 USD/ton 350 300 250 200 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24 Jul-24 Jan-25 Urea inland proxy China Urea fob Egypt(Europe)
Slide 3: Urea export from China – nothing
Urea export from China – nothing 4500 4000 2022 2023 2024 3500 3000 2500 kt product 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Product code: 31021000
Slide 4: Urea production in India – down on last season
Urea production in India – down on last season Kt urea, monthly 3100 2900 2023/24 2700 2024/25 2500 2300 2022/23 2100 1900 2021/22 1700 1500 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Slide 5: Combined with lower imports – strong decline in inventories this season
Combined with lower imports – strong decline in inventories this season Kt urea, accumulated (production + imports - sales) 3000 2023/24 2000 1000 2022/23 0 -1000 2021/22 -2000 -3000 -4000 2024/25 -5000 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Slide 6: US net nitrogen imports
US net nitrogen imports 22/23 23/24 24/25 3500 3000 2500 2000 000 metric tons N 1500 1000 500 0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun -500 TFI product selection
Slide 7: Grain inventories outside China, forecast is a sharp decline for 2024/25
Grain inventories outside China, forecast is a sharp decline for 2024/25 (July–June) Grain stocks – excluding China Days of consumption in stock – excluding China Mill. tonnes Days 360 66 64 350 Jan 62 340 60 330 58 56 320 Feb 54 310 52 300 50 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24E 25F 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Slide 8: Grain markets – views on 2025 production taking center stage
Grain markets – views on 2025 production taking center stage Corn forward price Dec 25 (USc/bu): Wheat forward price Dec 25 (Usc/bu): 8
Slide 9: European natural gas (TTF) – high and volatile
European natural gas (TTF ) – high and volatile
Slide 10: Peak of urea capacity additions is behind us
Peak of urea capacity additions is behind us Global urea capacity additions ex. China 1,2 (mt) India Russia Iran Algeria USA Nigeria Australia Others 6.7 6.2 5.5 4.5 4.9 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.2 1.9% average historical 1.9 consumption 1.7 growth3 1.0 1.2 1.1 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Yara International — Danske Bank lunch presentation (March 2025) on 6ix