Slide 1: TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2021
TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2021
Slide 2: Two demand scenarios to 2050
TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2021 Two demand scenarios to 2050 Momentum Rupture A forward-looking scenario A back-casting approach Based upon decarbonization strategies of Net-Zero 2050 (NZ 2050) Achievement of Paris agreement well-below 2°C target based on countries, with China on-track to achieve
Slide 3: What's new in our 2021 scenarios?
What’s new in our 2021 scenarios? Momentum: market trends acceleration & NZ 2050 countries’ commitments Ban on new ICE* sales in NZ 2050 countries in 2035 spurring a revolution in transport: - Electrification of light vehicles - Increased adoption of H2, H2-based fuels** and bioenergies in other tra
Slide 4: Meeting the energy needs of a growing population
Meeting the energy needs of a growing population Necessity of a just transition World total energy demand in Momentum World energy demand per capita in 2019 PJ/d MJ/d/capita 2 000 World 400 800 (+0.5%) OECD Non-OECD World (+1.1%) Non-OECD 1 000 OECD (-0.7%) (CAGR* 2019/50) 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2
Slide 5: How to curb emissions?
How to curb emissions? A collective engagement, from suppliers to consumers Global anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2018 GtCO2e 55 Other* 50 Res&Com Energy-related CO2 Power & 33 Gt CO2 Heat Industry 25 Transport Methane from the oil & gas industry Methane from coal, bioenergy Methane from agriculture
Slide 6: More energy & less emissions
More energy & less emissions Energy transition pathway Carbon sinks (CCS*, NBS**) key for the Net Zero journey More energy in all scenarios H2 increased penetration in industry and transportation Oil plateaus before 2030 and declines thereafter Renewables decarbonizing the power sector Gas enabler o
Slide 7: Key drivers for energy transition in each sector
Key drivers for energy transition in each sector How to decarbonize Driver Industry Transport Residential & Commercial Power Energy efficiency ⚫⚫⚫ ⚫⚫ ⚫⚫⚫ ⚫ Behavior ⚫ ⚫⚫ ⚫ Electrification ⚫⚫ ⚫⚫⚫ ⚫⚫⚫ Switch Coal/Oil-to-Gas ⚫⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫⚫⚫ Solar & Wind / Storage ⚫ ⚫ ⚫⚫⚫ Biofuels / Biogas ⚫ ⚫⚫ ⚫ Hydrogen ⚫⚫
Slide 8: Key modeling drivers of our scenarios
Key modeling drivers of our scenarios Sector-based assumptions 2019 Momentum 2050 Rupture 2050 Strong electrification of end-use ~20% of final demand ~30% ~40% solar+wind: ~110 GW/yr Pace x3.5 Pace x6 Deep decarbonization of power supply capacity additions since 2010 (380 GW/yr) (620 GW/yr) Gas goin
Slide 9: Momentum
Momentum Key energy transition levers: • Electrification and energy mix diversification in transport • Increased penetration of clean H2 • Massive growth in power demand Momentum wrap-up Zoom on NZ 2050 countries 9 September 2021 - TotalEnergies Energy Outlook
Slide 10: Electrification in Light Vehicles
Electrification in Light Vehicles 2035 ICE sales ban in NZ 2050 countries to accelerate LV fleet electrification Light Duty Vehicles* final consumption (Momentum) Light Vehicles fleet (Momentum) PJ/d Billion 150 2 H2-based** Electricity + 100 Hydrogen Electricity Biofuels & biogas 1 Natural gas 50 O
Slide 11: Mix diversification in Heavy Duty Vehicles
Mix diversification in Heavy Duty Vehicles Electricity and hydrogen to allow for decarbonization of trucking Heavy Duty Vehicles* final consumption (Momentum) HDV zero emissions share in traffic in 2050 (Momentum) PJ/d H2-based** 50% 100% 100 Electricity Biofuels Urban vehicles Biogas (~30% of HDV t
Slide 12: Multiple decarbonization paths in Aviation & Marine
Multiple decarbonization paths in Aviation & Marine Bioenergies and H2-based fuels to decarbonize these hard-to-abate sectors Aviation final consumption (Momentum) Marine final consumption (Momentum) PJ/d PJ/d 50 50 H2-based** Electricity Biofuels H2-based** Electricity 25 25 Biofuels Oil Biogas LNG
Slide 13: Increased penetration of clean hydrogen
Increased penetration of clean hydrogen A new driver of electricity demand Clean H2 balance (Momentum) Power demand by sector (Momentum) MtH2 TWh ~300 Other 60 000 Res. & Com. Elec for H2 Power ~2/3 ~7 500 TWh Transport 200 Industry Green H2 elec for H2 30 000 100 Transport ~1/3 ~500 Bcm Blue H2 gas
Slide 14: Massive growth in power generation
Massive growth in power generation Led by solar & wind Power generation (Momentum) Solar & Wind capacities (Momentum) TWh GW 5 000 10 000 60 000 Other non-carbon (nuclear, hydro…) 2019 30 000 Solar & Wind 2030 Natural gas Oil 2050 Coal of which for H2 production 2019 2030 2050 • Generation more than
Slide 15: Momentum: World Total Final Consumption
Momentum: World Total Final Consumption Electricity becomes the #1 source of end-user energy in the early 2040s Total final consumption CO2 emissions by sector PJ/d Gt 10 Other renewables H2-based* Heat Transport 1 000 Electricity Industry Biofuels Biomass 5 Biogas 500 Natural gas Oil Res&Com Coal 2
Slide 16: Momentum: World Oil & Natural Gas
Momentum: World Oil & Natural Gas Natural gas key for energy transition, while oil starts decreasing after 2030 Natural gas demand by sector Oil demand by sector Bcm Mb/d 100 -1.9% p.a. 5 000 Other transf. Gas for H2 Transport Res&Com Industry 50 2 500 Transport Industry Power Gen Res&Com 2019 2030
Slide 17: Momentum: World energy demand and CO2 emissions
Momentum: World energy demand and CO2 emissions Net-Zero pledges instrumental but insufficient to meet global targets Total primary energy demand CO2 emissions PJ/d Gt 2 000 Other renewables Solar & Wind Bioenergy* 30 Hydro Nuclear 1 000 Natural gas 15 Oil Coal 2019 2030 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 204
Slide 18: A closer look at Net Zero 2050 countries
A closer look at Net Zero 2050 countries Paving the way to carbon neutrality Population GDP Energy demand CO2 emissions Billion people 2010=100 PJ/d GtCO2 10 400 2 000 40 5 200 1 000 20 28% 34% 22% 30% 3% 14% 12% 41% 2019 2050 2019 2050 2019 2050 Mom. 2019 2050 Mom. 18 September 2021 - TotalEnergies
Slide 19: Net Zero by 2050 countries
Net Zero by 2050 countries At the forefront of the energy transition NZ 2050 countries Primary energy demand Total primary energy demand PJ/d PJ/d 600 2 000 Momentum Other renewables Solar & Wind 300 1 000 Bioenergy* Hydro Nuclear NZ 2050 countries Natural gas Oil Coal 2019 2030 2050 2000 2010 2020
Slide 20: Net Zero by 2050 countries
Net Zero by 2050 countries Amplification of transport revolution NZ 2050 countries Transport energy mix Electricity and H2-based fuels in Transport demand PJ/d % 100% NZ 2050 countries 100 50% Momentum 50 H2-based* Electricity Biofuels Oil 2019 2030 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 • Collapse in O
Slide 21: Net Zero by 2050 countries
Net Zero by 2050 countries Deep electrification across the board, reaching 45% NZ 2050 countries Power demand Share of electricity in total final consumption TWh % 20 000 NZ 2050 countries Other transf. 40% Elec for H2 Transport 10 000 Momentum Industry 20% Res&Com 2019 2030 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030
Slide 22: Net Zero by 2050 countries
Net Zero by 2050 countries Thorough decarbonization of power generation NZ 2050 countries Power generation Share of Renewables** in Power generation TWh % NZ 2050 countries 20 000 80% Other renewables Bioenergy* Momentum 10 000 Solar & Wind 40% Hydro Nuclear Natural gas + CCS Coal 2019 2030 2050 200
Slide 23: Net Zero by 2050 countries
Net Zero by 2050 countries Natural gas + CCS and green gases to play a pivotal role NZ 2050 countries Gases demand by sector Share of Green Gases in total gases demand Bcm* % (Biomethane, Clean H2, etc.) 2 000 NZ 2050 countries Gas for H2 40% Energy transf. Green gases 1 000 Transport Res&Com 20% Mo
Slide 24: Net Zero by 2050 countries
Net Zero by 2050 countries Leading the net-zero emissions pathway NZ 2050 countries CO2 emissions and CCS World CO2 emissions Gt Gt 40 10 End USERS Momentum CCS ~0.5Gt 20 5 Non-NZ 2050 SUPPLIERS countries (Momentum) CCS ~2Gt DAC*, NZ 2050 NBS countries 2019 2030 2050 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20
Slide 25: Rupture
Rupture 25 September 2021 - TotalEnergies Energy Outlook
Slide 26: Rupture: World Total Final Consumption
Rupture: World Total Final Consumption Even more radical transformations in end-user energy consumption Total final consumption CO2 emissions by sector PJ/d Gt 10 Momentum Rupture Other renewables H2-based* Heat 1 000 Transport Electricity 5 Industry 500 Biofuels Biomass Biogas Natural gas Oil Res&C
Slide 27: Rupture: World Power demand
Rupture: World Power demand Electrification becomes a key lever for decarbonization in all sectors Power demand by sector Renewable and battery capacities in 2050 TWh GW 5 000 10 000 80 000 2019 2050 Batteries Other transf. Elec for H2 2019 Offshore Transport 2050 wind 40 000 Industry 2019 Onshore 2
Slide 28: Rupture: World Power generation
Rupture: World Power generation Accelerated penetration of renewables decarbonizing electricity Power generation Average power emission factor TWh gCO2/kWh 600 80 000 Other renewables Bioenergy* 40 000 Solar & Wind 300 Momentum Hydro Nuclear Natural gas Coal Rupture 2019 2050 2050 Momentum Rupture 2
Slide 29: Rupture: World Clean Hydrogen
Rupture: World Clean Hydrogen Emerging as a promising contributor to Net-Zero Clean H2 balance in 2050 MtH2 >400 400 ~2/3 2 900 GW 11 600 TWh ~300 Green H2 electrolysers elec for H2 17% of world power in 2050 Other Res&Com 2.5 x current China + EU29 current 200 Power world Wind & power demand Indust
Slide 30: Rupture: World demand in Transport
Rupture: World demand in Transport Expansion of transport revolution to emerging markets Transport total final consumption Share of electricity and fuel cells in 2050 PJ/d % 50% 100% 400 LV fleet H2-based* HDV traffic 200 Electricity Non-fossil fuels share of energy demand in 2050 Biofuels Biogas %
Slide 31: Rupture: World demand in Industry
Rupture: World demand in Industry Mobilizing all levers to decarbonize industry Industry total final consumption Oil demand for petrochemicals PJ/d Mb/d 600 Momentum Rupture Other renewables H2-based* Heat 20 Electricity SUP** ban NZ countries + China SUP** ban World 300 Biomass Recycling Recycling
Slide 32: Rupture: World demand in Res&Com
Rupture: World demand in Res&Com Urbanization is a catalyst for power demand Residential & Commercial total final consumption World urbanization and Res&Com electrification rates PJ/d 80% 400 2050 Other renewables Rupture H2-based* 63% Heat Res & com electrification rate 52% 2019 Momentum 200 Electr
Slide 33: Rupture: World Gases demand
Rupture: World Gases demand Gases becoming predominantly low-carbon Gases demand by sector Gases demand by type Bcm* Bcm* 6 000 6 000 Gas for blue H2 Clean Energy transf. Hydrogen Transport Biomethane Res&Com 3 000 3 000 CCS-abated Industry Natural Gas** Natural Gas Power Gen 2019 2050 2050 2019 205
Slide 34: Rupture: World Liquids demand
Rupture: World Liquids demand Oil demand to plateau before 2030 Liquids demand by sector Sustainable liquid fuels demand in transport Mb/d Mb/d 20 100 Marine 50 Biofuels 10 and other SLF Aviation Transport Industry Road Res&Com 2019 2050 2050 2019 2050 2050 Momentum Rupture Momentum Rupture • Oil de
Slide 35: Rupture: World Primary Energy Demand
Rupture: World Primary Energy Demand Greening the energy system will enable sustainable growth for all Total primary energy demand Total primary energy demand PJ/d PJ/d Momentum Rupture 2 000 2 000 +0.5%/yr +0.3%/yr Other renewables Solar & Wind NZ 2050 RoW NZ 2050 RoW Bioenergy* countries countries
Slide 36: Rupture: World CO2 emissions
Rupture: World CO2 emissions CCS and NBS both needed to reach Net Zero Energy-related CO2 emissions Energy-related CO2 emissions abatements Gt Gt 30 End USERS 30 NZ countries CCS ~3Gt commitments Momentum China India 15 SUPPLIERS 15 Other Asia CCS ~7Gt RoW DAC*, NBS… Rupture 2019 2050 2050 Momentum
Slide 37: From well-below 2°C to 1.5°C
From well-below 2°C to 1.5°C Rupture+ sensitivity CO2 emissions Gt Rupture+: how to reach 1.5°C • Sensitivity to remove ~2 Gt CO2 : 30 A worldwide ICE sales ban in 2035 Momentum Reducing oil demand by 14 Mb/d in 2050 • Rupture+ also assumes 8 Gt CO2 of CCS 15 Rupture • CO2 emissions fall below 5 Gt
Slide 38: From well-below 2°C to 1.5°C
From well-below 2°C to 1.5°C Selected impacts of Rupture+ sensitivity Total primary energy demand Oil demand PJ/d Mb/d 2 000 100 +0.3% +0.3% -0.4% CAGR 2019/50 Other renewables Solar & Wind 1 000 50 Rupture Bioenergy* Hydro Rupture+ Nuclear Natural gas IEA NZE Oil Coal 2050 2050 2050 Rupture Rupture
Slide 39: Appendix
Appendix 39 September 2021 - TotalEnergies Energy Outlook
Slide 40: World primary energy demand and power generation
World primary energy demand and power generation World primary energy demand (PJ/d) MOMENTUM RUPTURE 2019 2030 2040 2050 CAGR 19/50 2030 2040 2050 CAGR 19/50 Coal 434 388 361 322 -1,0% 305 177 96 -4,8% Oil 523 495 392 334 -1,4% 465 313 214 -2,8% Natural Gas 383 433 479 508 0,9% 431 438 418 0,3% Nucl
Slide 41: “TotalEnergies”, “TotalEnergies company” and “Company” used in this document are generic and used for
The entities in which TotalEnergies SE directly or indirectly owns a shareholding are separate and independent legal entities. The terms These adjustment items include: “TotalEnergies”, “TotalEnergies company” and “Company” used in this document are generic and used for convenience to designate Tota
Slide 42: For more information go to
Corporate Communications TOTAL SE 2, place Jean-Millier 92400 Courbevoie, France Tel.: +33 (0)1 47 44 45 46 Share capital: €6,601,073,322.50 Registered in Nanterre: RCS 542 051 180 For more information go to