Blue Bird Corporation · NASDAQ:BLBD
Blue Bird — FY2022 Earnings Presentation
30 slides from Blue Bird's earnings presentation, Dec 12, 2022
Slide 1: Fiscal 2022 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results
BLUE BIRD CORPORATION (NASDAQ: BLBD) Fiscal 2022 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results Earnings Conference Call December 12, 2022
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda Introductions & Mark Benfield Forward-Looking Statements Executive Director, Investor Relations Results and Highlights Matthew Stevenson President & CEO Financial Results Razvan Radulescu CFO Outlook Matthew Stevenson President & CEO Q&A Group This presentation includes forward-looking statem
Slide 3: Important Disclaimers
Important Disclaimers Forward Looking Statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the “safe harbor” provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements relate to expectations for future financial performance,
Slide 4: Important Disclaimers: Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Important Disclaimers Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation may include the following non-GAAP financial measures: “Adjusted EBITDA,” "Adjusted EBITDA Margin," “Adjusted Net Income,” “Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share,” “Free Cash Flow” and “Adjusted Free Cash Flow.” Additional information
Slide 5: Results and Highlights
RESULTS AND HIGHLIGHTS Matthew Stevenson President & CEO 5
Slide 6: Key Takeaways for the Fiscal Year 2022
Key Takeaways for the Fiscal Year 2022 Strong Market Demand & Backlog Continued Leadership in EV & Alternative Fuels Increased Pricing on Backlog & New Orders Aggressively Drove Cost Out of the Business Improved Parts Availability, Throughput and Quality Fundamentals and the outlook of the business
Slide 7: FY2022 Financial Results and Ongoing Business Highlights
FY2022 Financial Results and Ongoing Business Highlights FY2022 Full Year Results Record year-end Phase 1 of EPA Funding Winners ~$600M FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS Announced for Backlog of 5k UNITS NET Units1 $965 SOLD SALES 6,822 $801M Alt. Power sales mix ~$100M of EV’s in 2% vs.’21 1
Slide 8: Reminder Key Focus Areas FY2022
Reminder Key Focus Areas FY2022 Our People Lean Transformation Expanding Our TAM Scaling EV 8
Slide 9: Progress in Our Key Focus Areas
Progress in Our Key Focus Areas Our People Lean Transformation Scaling EV Expanding Our TAM 9
Slide 10: Financial Results
FINANCIAL RESULTS Razvan Radulescu CFO 10
Slide 11: FY2022 Q4 and Full Year Financial Results
FY2022 Q4 and Full Year Financial Results FY2022 Q4 Results FY2022 Full Year Results FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS UNITS NET UNITS NET SOLD SALES SOLD SALES 2,016 $258M 6,822 $801M 105 vs.’21 $66M vs.’21 143 vs.’21 $117M vs.’21 Adjusted Adjusted Adjusted Adjusted EBITDA FCF EBITDA FCF $(
Slide 12: FY22 Income Statement
FY22 Income Statement ($ Millions) FY2022 FY2021 B/(W) Unit Volume 6,822 6,679 143 Unit Backlog 5,016 4,236 780 Net Revenue $800.6 $684.0 $116.6 Bus Rev./Unit ($000's) $106.1 $93.6 $12.5 Gross Margin 4.6% 10.5% (590) bps Adj. Net Income1 $(36.0) $8.7 $(44.7) Adj. EBITDA1 $(14.7) $34.1 $(48.8) Adj. E
Slide 13: Normalized result at ~$45M shows ~$11M improvement vs. 2021
Normalized result at ~$45M shows ~$11M improvement vs. 2021, excl. the supply chain constraints and Q4 inventory adjustment Unit Volume ($ Millions) FY2021 6,679 FY2022 6,822 Variance 143 $45.0 excl. Q4 Supply chain Inv. Adjustment disruptions and Strong parts higher inbound volume and freight costs
Slide 14: FY22 Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Summary
FY22 Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Summary ($ Millions) FY2022 FY2021 B/(W) Cash $10.5 $11.7 $(1.2) Debt $170.2 $209.4 $39.2 Operating Cash Flow $(24.4) $(54.2) $29.8 Adj. Free Cash Flow1 $(22.8) $(62.0) $39.2 Trade Working Capital* $14.7 $(56.9) $71.7 Adjusted FCF improved by $39M vs prior year, and
Slide 15: Inventory back to normal levels during FY22-Q4
Inventory back to normal levels during FY22-Q4 ▪ Q3 Production ramp-up was constrained $M Inventory 212 ▪ Production ramp-up initiated in February for Q3 WIP ▪ Ukraine war / China COVID lockdowns created new shortages RAW 60 150 ▪ Inbound Inventory accumulated throughout Q3 154 138 141 36 ▪ Q4 Opera
Slide 16: Softening Steel prices will start to pay off during 2023
Softening Steel prices will start to pay off during 2023, with a lag US Steel Prices, USD/ST, Jan ‘21– Apr ‘23 HR HR Fut. CR HDG Scrap Scrap Fut. Spot Prices* Futures 2,500 4/21 12/1 2,000 1,870 1,850 1,500 1,471 1,000 880 800 500 679 658 720 735 745 290 362 375 379 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug S
Slide 17: Old backlog units still impact profitability in FY23-Q1
Old backlog units still impact profitability in FY23-Q1 by ~$(10)M Production Quarter 20% 28% 27% 66% FY23 Orders to go 74% 76% 43% FY23 Backlog (+25% pricing) 100% 100% FY22 Newer Backlog (11-15% pricing) 62% FY21 Old Backlog (0-5% pricing) 72% 25% 34% 15% 26% 11% 12% 9% FY22-Q1 FY22-Q2 FY22-Q3 FY2
Slide 18: Key Success Factors Already in Place for FY23
Key Success Factors Already in Place for FY23 Rev. $200 - $220 $220 - $240 $230 - $260 $250 - $280 $900 - $1,000 $M 40 ➢ Very strong backlog with locked higher pricing 35.0 – 45.0 Adj. EBITDA ➢ Softening raw material prices (i.e. Steel) ➢ Stable proven leadership team, improving operations ~4% 20 Ol
Slide 19: FY23 Guidance: Return to profitability in FY23 with strong H2
FY23 Guidance: Return to profitability in FY23 with strong H2 $ Millions FY2022 FY2023 B/(W) ▪ FY23-Q1 with headwinds from old Actuals Guidance Vs. Prior Year backlog pricing, and seasonal low number of productions days Net Revenue $800 $900 – $1,000 $100 - $200 ▪ Improved volumes expected during Q2
Slide 20: Long-term Outlook Driven by EV growth and Lean Transformation
Long-term Outlook Driven by EV growth and Lean Transformation Units Revenues $M Diesel Gas Propane CNG EV Outlook Rev. $M 11,646 12,000 12,000 11,317 11,017 11,000 3,000 10,500 10,000 8,878 9,500 2,500 8,000 2,000 8,000 6,679 6,822 1,750 2,000 6,000 1,500 1,500 1,250 4,000 1,019 879 1,000 1,000 991
Slide 21: Outlook
OUTLOOK Matthew Stevenson President & CEO 21
Slide 22: Positioned for Strong Recovery in FY2023 & Beyond
Positioned for Strong Recovery in FY2023 & Beyond 45,000 NA School Bus Industry Bookings 17%+ = 8,000+ units CL 6-7* 39.6k 40,000 38.7k 36.8k 36.6k 35.8k 36.1k 35,000 33.5k Revenue 19%+ = ~$950 Million 29.6k 30,000 27.4k 26.4k 25.7k 25,000 Parts Revenue 10%+ = $84+ Million 20,000 ~10% CAGR 15,000 EB
Slide 23: EPA Clean School Bus Rebate Program
EPA Clean School Bus Rebate Program Program Overview 2022 Lottery Results $5B funding over 5 years Blue Bird Corporate and Dealers Other OEMs ~300 Loyal BB Customers and ~$1B released in 2022 690 200- Channel Partners 400 2,468 Buses awarded at 391 School Districts ~1,200 Unallocated winnings Short-
Slide 24: Strong Outlook Ahead for Blue Bird / Investment Highlights
Strong Outlook Ahead for Blue Bird / Investment Highlights Countercyclical Strong industry growth ahead with a backdrop of healthy funding and an aging school bus fleet National Commitment Beneficiary of $5B US Government’s commitment to the electrification of school buses The Leader Leading market
Slide 25: Q&A
Q&A 25
Slide 26: Appendix
APPENDIX 26
Slide 27: Adj. EBITDA Reconciliation
Adj. EBITDA Reconciliation Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted EBITDA Three Months Ended Fiscal Year Ended (in thousands of dollars) October 1, 2022 October 2, 2021 October 1, 2022 October 2, 2021 Net loss $ (23,095) $ (2,388) $ (45,759) $ (289) Adjustments: Interest expense, net (1) 5,277 2,68
Slide 28: Free Cash Flow Reconciliation
Free Cash Flow Reconciliation Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow to Adjusted Free Cash Flow Three Months Ended Fiscal Year Ended (in thousands of dollars) October 1, 2022 October 2, 2021 October 1, 2022 October 2, 2021 Net cash used in operating activities $ 30,014 $ (40,003) $ (24,437) $ (54,241) Cas
Slide 29: Adjusted EPS Reconciliation
Adjusted EPS Reconciliation Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted Net Income and of Diluted EPS to Adjusted Diluted EPS Three Months Ended Fiscal Year Ended (in thousands of dollars) October 1, 2022 October 2, 2021 October 1, 2022 October 2, 2021 Net loss $ (23,095) $ (2,388) $ (45,759) $ (289) A
Slide 30: End
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