BankGuam Holding Co. · OTC:BKGM
BankGuam — 2026 Economic Forum
27 slides from BankGuam's conference presentation, Jan 22, 2026
Slide 1: 2026 Economic Forum: Global Outlook and its Impact on our Local Economy
2026 ECONOMIC FORUM Global Outlook and its Impact on our Local Economy
Slide 2: 2026: Cost Pressure, Capacity, and Company Resilience
2026: Cost Pressure, Capacity, and Company Resilience Melanie Mendiola Director of Investor Education & Guidance, BG Investment Services January 22, 2026
Slide 3: Introduction
Introduction Examine Lagging Indicators Analyze Coincident Indicators Identify Leading Indicators By analyzing a comprehensive set of economic indicators, we can better understand the past, present, and future conditions that shape Guam's economic landscape.
Slide 4: Slide 4
Slide 5: Building a Resilient Enterprise
Building a Resilient Enterprise Your clients & customers Your team Your Company Your Bottom Line Understand how economic Assess the effect of cost Evaluate how rising costs Develop strategies to maintain conditions will impact your pressures on your employees across industries will affect financial
Slide 6: Disclaimers
Disclaimers Educational Purpose Only No Investment Recommendations The BGIS 2026 Investor Education & Guidance The information presented does not constitute a sessions are provided for general educational recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any and informational purposes only and are not security o
Slide 7: CPI
CPI The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key measure of inflation, tracking the changes in the prices of a basket of consumer goods and services over time.
Slide 8: CPI: The Basket
CPI: The Basket 6% 24% 39% 7% 2% 13% 3% 6% Food Education & Communication Other Goods & Services Transportation Medical Care Recreation Housing Apparel and Upkeep
Slide 9: CPI: Guam versus the Mainland
CPI: Guam versus the Mainland Year United States CPI (% change) Guam CPI (% change) 2019 2020 1.40% 1.70% 2021 7% 3.80% 2022 8% 7.90% 2023 4.10% 8.70% 2024 2.90% 6.80% 2025 2.70% 2.50% *https://bsp.guam.gov/wp-bsp-content/uploads/2025/12/Q2-2025-Publication-V2-New.pdf
Slide 10: CPI: Guam versus the Mainland
CPI: Guam versus the Mainland United States CPI (% change) Guam CPI (% change) 10.00% 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Slide 11: Second-Round Effects of Oil Prices on Inflation
Source: The Fed - Second-Round Effects of Oil Prices on Inflation in the Advanced Foreign Economies
Slide 12: CPI & Oil
140.00% 120.00% 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% CPI & Oil 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -20.00% -40.00% United States CPI (% change) Guam CPI (% change) Singapore VLS Change Brent Crude Change
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Slide 14: CPI & Labor: Healthcare
CPI & Labor: Healthcare Healthcare is both a cost driver and Medical professionals and specialty GMH has improved its utilization of labor-market bottleneck physicians are getting more traveling nurses, but not through a expensive at contract renewal time, bigger supply of local nurses, rather if we
Slide 15: CPI: Construction
CPI: Construction * Wood and cement went up by <2% in 2025. * Labor remains tight. * Interest rate may go down in 2026.
Slide 16: Occupations and wages chart
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Slide 17: Wages: Three Industries
Wages: Three Industries Construction: Structural Tourism: Catch-Up + Healthcare: Late but Reset Volatility Sharp Adjustments • Repeated double-digit • 2022-2023 - Large jumps • Nurses, LPNs, pharmacists all increases (30–60%) in: - Chefs - Servers - experienced 29–56% wage • Some occupations seeing
Slide 18: Three Industries Labor 2026
Three Industries Labor 2026 Construction Tourism (Stabilizing, Healthcare (Upward (Anchored, Still Tight) Still Competitive) Bias Persists) • +3% to +6% • +2% to +5% • +4% to +7% • Prevailing wage escalation • Retention vs expansion • Provider shortages • Project continuity • Housing pressure • Immi
Slide 19: A 5% wage increase in 2026 is a reasonable midpoint
Given what we have seen so far, a 5% wage increase in 2026 is not an aggressive assumption - it's a reasonable midpoint.
Slide 20: Permitting 2026
Permitting 2026 FY2025 Permits represented projects FY2023 $238 million (741 projects) just over $400 million (769) Majority of residential permits are FY2024 $368 million (928 projects) renovations/additions/meter work, not new supply The permit data indicates a robust construction pipeline, with a
Slide 21: Permits and Housing 2026
Permits and Housing 2026 WAREHOUSE UTILITY / INFRASTRUCTURE SOLAR SIGNAGE RESIDENTIAL MISCELLANEOUS INSTALLATION GOVERNMENT ELEVATOR DEMOLITION COMMERCIAL CLEARING / GRADING $0.00 $20,000,000.00 $40,000,000.00 $60,000,000.00 $80,000,000.00 $100,000,000.00 $120,000,000.00
Slide 22: Permits and Housing 2026
Permits and Housing 2026 • 275 residential permits in FY2025 • 32 multi-family units The number of residential permits issued in the 2025 (townhomes/apartments/duplexes) fiscal year Estimated number of new multi-family housing units permitted • Known new units (lower bound): 132 • + 1 apartment comp
Slide 23: Education & STEM
Education & STEM • UOG Science & Technology Index • Needs work: Patent activity is minimal, Federal R&D grants • Over $61M in academic R&D remain modest and inconsistent, spending at the University of STEM apprenticeships and Guam since 2019 employer participation are limited, Business formation is
Slide 24: Concluding Thoughts
Concluding Thoughts Top Cost Drivers Labor Sensitivity Oil Price Sensitivity Housing (38%), Medical Care Wages in Construction, Guam experiences delayed and (6%), Food (23.4%), Healthcare, and Tourism have prolonged impact from changes in Transportation (13%) - comprising seen significant increases,
Slide 25: Profit & Loss Word Problem
Profit & Loss Word Problem :-) Salaries & Wages make up 25% of your revenue. You are not directly in tourism, but you support tourism. You survey your workforce and many have the potential to leave you for jobs at the DOD or elsewhere. 3% Annual Merit Increase 5% Increase due to turnover and competi
Slide 26: 2026 is not about certainty - it's about clarity
2026 is not about certainty - it's about clarity. Understanding where pressure accumulates is more valuable than predicting a single number. At BankGuam Holdings, our role is not to tell you what the economy will do. It is to help you navigate the environment, regardless of the market conditions.
Slide 27: Si Yu'us Maase!
Si Yu’us Maase! - ~