Pinnacle West Capital Corporation · NYSE:PNW
Pinnacle West Capital — Investor Day (October 2002)
161 slides from Pinnacle West Capital's investor day presentation, Oct 18, 2002
Slide 1: Forward-Looking Statements
Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking staternents based on current expectations and the company assumes no obligation to update these staternents, except as required by applicable laws. Because actual results may differ materially from expectations, the company cautio
Slide 2: Financial Overview
Financial Overview © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 3: Pinnacle West Financial Focus
Pinnacle West Financial Focus = Manage business strategies for superior long-term shareholder value creation = Continue superior long-term combined earnings and dividend growth = Improve balance sheet strength = Ensure adequate liquidity © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 4: Economic Outlook
Economic Outlook © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 5: Arizona Vs. U.S. Population Growth
Arizona Vs. U.S. Population Growth Percentage Change 4 ‘O7 "98 "99 ‘00 "01 02 03 04 Projected DArizona BU.S. © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 6: Phoenix Single-Family Building Permits
Phoenix Single-Family Building Permits Thousands 35 33 31 29 27 25 ‘97 ‘98 "99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 —— Projected ——— © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 7: Maricopa County Real Non-Residential Investment Activity
Maricopa County Real Non-Residential Investment Activity YIY Change 150% 100% 50% 0% ——_.—__f}-_—_— -50Y “ 50% 1998. 1999. 2000 2001 +++ Office Buildings —Total * Year-to-date March 2002 @ 2002 Pinnade West Capit
Slide 8: Arizona vs. U.S. Wage and Salary Employment Growth
Arizona vs. U.S. Wage and Salary Employment Growth Percentage Change 5 ‘97 ‘98 "99 ‘00 "01 "02 ‘03 ‘04 —— Projected ——— Arizona gU.S. @ 2002 Pinnade West Capit
Slide 9: Superior APS Retail Customer Growth
Superior APS Retail Customer Growth Percent 5.0 HE 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Projected ° ° ° ° GAPS — Industry Average @ 2002 Pinnade West Capit illic
Slide 10: Pinnacle West Earnings Drivers 2002 vs. 2001 (Regulated)
Pinnacle West Earnings Drivers * 2002 vs. 2001 (After-tax) = Regulated « Customer sales growth (RNF) $32M « Fuel, purchased power, reliability and outages 80M « Off system sales (68M) « Severance costs (22M) « Pension/OPEB expense (6M) « Depreciation and other (10M) * Estimated change in income befo
Slide 11: Pinnacle West Earnings Drivers 2002 vs. 2001 (Unregulated)
Pinnacle West Earnings Drivers * 2002 vs. 2001 (After-tax) = Other Unregulated « Marketing and Trading $(62M) « Unregulated generation (11M) « Holding company costs (7M) « APS Energy Services 20M « SunCor/El Dorado (1M) “ Estimated © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 12: Pinnacle West Earnings Drivers 2003 vs. 2002 (Regulated)
Pinnacle West Earnings Drivers * 2003 vs. 2002 (After-tax) = Regulated « Customer sales growth (RNF) $44M « No severance costs 22M « O&M target reductions 18M « Pension/OPEB expense (13M) « Higher gas and power costs (59M) « Depreciation and other (13M) “ Estimated © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corpor
Slide 13: Pinnacle West Earnings Drivers 2003 vs. 2002 (Unregulated)
Pinnacle West Earnings Drivers * 2003 vs. 2002 (After-tax) = Unregulated « Marketing and Trading - « Unregulated generation - « Holding company costs - « SunCor & El Dorado + Neutral “ Estimated © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 14: Power Marketing and Trading Results
Pinnacle West Power Marketing and Trading Results Estimated Gross Margin Realized MTM Gains* $317M $64M $28M $29M | 1 Ae es 98 99 0001 TME 02 03 04 058 6/30/02 thereafter Net change in mark-to-market * Based on accumulated mark-to- Realized gain market gains as of 6/30/02 © 2002 Pinnade West Capital
Slide 15: Limited capital devoted to Power Marketing and Trading business
Limited capital devoted to Power Marketing and Trading business © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation 14
Slide 16: Accounting Topics
Accounting Topics Asset Retirement Obligation - FAS 143 Stock Options - FAS 123 @ 202 Fi a Effective 1/2003; Expect no material impact to earnings ua Elected to adopt July 1, 2002 = Applied ona prospective basis = Estimated earnings effect of under $0.5M in 2002; normalized level of $1.5M innsiiedie
Slide 17: Final Accounting Guidance - Trading Contracts (EITF 02-3)
Final Accounting Guidance - Trading Contracts (EITF 02-3) = Applies to previously recorded gross revenues and purchased power costs for electricity trading under EITF 98-10 m= New guidance adopted July 2002 requires trading contracts to be recorded on net basis in revenues = Gross margins are not im
Slide 18: Pension Contributions
Pension Contributions = Company contributions 3" in recent years were optional 60 = Cash contributions will likely be required in 2003 ° 20 "99 '00 «01 «©'02 ='03* * Estimated range 7
Slide 19: Other Benefit Cost Impacts
Other Benefit Cost Impacts = Pension Lower investment returns are expected to impact other comprehensive income with a $60 - $100 million charge to equity = Pension and OPEB expense Estimated incremental after-tax pension and OPEB effects of approximately $5 million in 2002 and between $10-$15 milli
Slide 20: El Dorado Investment Company
EI Dorado Investment Company Projected assets as of 12/31/02 $33 million Other High Tech Venture Investments Capital Partnership & Assets 19 @ 2002 Pinnade West Capit
Slide 21: NAC International
NAC International = Spent nuclear fuel storage and transportation business - Recapitalization and consolidation to PNW in 3Q 2002 « Recovery plan designed to mitigate ongoing financial support © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation 20
Slide 22: Current Financing Plans With Regulatory Shift
Current Financing Plans With Regulatory Shift = Financing application - PWEC dedicated generation assets - APS balance sheet strength = Access capital markets within 90 days of approval of financing application ua Preserves flexibility to seek appropriate regulatory treatment an © 2002 Pinnade West
Slide 23: Financial Benchmarks
Financial Benchmarks © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 24: Balancing Growth and Financial Strength
Pinnacle West Balancing Growth and Financial Strength Capital Expenditures Consolidated Debt Ratio* $ Millions 9) 1,200 a 2005 Target of < 55% 900 —— 50% 600 | 300 | 40% o+ rt 1 30% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2000 2001 6/3002 2005 TME Other Generation Expansion * Includes Palo Verde salelleaseback CIExisti
Slide 25: Pinnacle West versus Industry: Cash Flow Per Share
Pinnacle West versus Industry Cash Flow Per Share $ per Share 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 6/30/02 TME O Pinnacle West WS&P 500 Electric Index Average 24 © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 26: Pinnacle West versus Industry: EBITDA Interest Coverage
Pinnacle West versus Industry * EBITDA Interest Coverage Times 3 Pinnacle West
Slide 27: Pinnacle West versus Industry: Total Debt to EBITDA
Pinnacle West versus Industry * Total Debt to EBITDA Times Pinnacle West 26
Slide 28: Pinnacle West versus Industry: Annual Dividend Growth
Pinnacle West versus Industry Annual Dividend Growth Percent 15 9.8 8.9 10 8.2 15 76 5 3.8 0.2 0! -1.4 -1.2 (5) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 OPinnacle West WS&P 500 Electric Index Average @ 2002 Pinnade West Capit illic
Slide 29: Pinnacle West versus Industry: Dividend Payout
Pinnacle West versus Industry Dividend Payout Percent 146 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 OPinnacle West wS&P 500 Electric Index Average 28 © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 30: Pinnacle West versus Industry: Dividend Growth CAGR
Pinnacle West versus Industry * Dividend Growth - 5 Year CAGR Percent " 10 Pinnacle West * Reflects S&P 500 Electric Index companies with positive CAGR from 1996 - 2001 @ 2002 Pinnade West Capit illic 29
Slide 31: Pinnacle West versus Industry: Dividend Yield
Pinnacle West versus Industry * Dividend Yield Percent 7 50) = Pinnacle West 40 30 20 10 * Reflects S&P 500 Electric Index companies with declared dividends 12 months ended 6/30/02; stock price as of 10/8/02 © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation 30
Slide 32: Financial Summary
Financial Summary = Commitment to strong dividend growth policy = Solid cash flow results = Focused on core business = Maximize long-term asset values = Active management of financial and business risks un
Slide 33: Financing Plans
Financing Plans DQ, oop PINNACLEWEST @ 2002 Pimade West Capital Corporation tania € .
Slide 34: PNW Consolidated Long-Term Debt at 9/30/02
PNW Consolidated Long-Term Debt at 9/30/02 Type Amount % of Total FMB’s $ 251M T% Unsecured 2,232M 66% Tax-exempt* 656M 19% Total B/S Debt 3,139M 92% SLOB Debt 285M 8% Total LT Debt $3,424M 100% Weighted Average Interest Rate 5.6% Weighted Average Years to Maturity 9.6 * $179M of tax-exempt debt bac
Slide 35: PNW Long-Term Debt by Subsidiary at 9/30/02
PNW Long-Term Debt by Subsidiary at 9/30/02 Type APS PNW_ _ SunCor Total FMB’s $ 251M $ = $ - $ 251M Unsecured 1,301M 791M 140M 2,232M Tax-exempt* 656M - - 656M Total B/S Debt 2,208M 791M 140M 3,139M SLOB Debt 285M - : 285M Total LT Debt = $2,493M $791M $140M $3,424M Weighted Average Interest Rate 6
Slide 36: Short-term Debt
Short-term Debt Balance at 9/30/02 Capacity PNW Commercial Paper $206M Uncommitted Bank Lines $ 35M i S260M $300M Bank Loan $ 45M $300M APS Commercial Paper $ 25M $250M © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 37: Pinnacle West - Bridge Debt
Pinnacle West - Bridge Debt Size at Issued Issuance Rate Maturity 8/8/01 $ 250M Libor +98 8/1/03 2/8/02 $ 215M 4.5% 2/9/04 7/31/02 $ 300M Libor +85 7/30/03 Total $ 765M * Expect to draw entire $300M by July 2003 unless refinanced early © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 38: Activity Since June 30, 02
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation Activity Since June 30, 2002 Description | $300 million bank facility Term 364 day due 7/30/03 Rate Libor +85 Purpose Fund 2002 & 2003 generation expansion and general corporate purposes © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 39: Pinnacle West Bridge Debt Repayment
Pinnacle West Bridge Debt Repayment = ACC financing application + APS $500M inter-company loan and/or guarantee = SunCor dividends © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 40: Maturity Profile of Long-Term Debt
Maturity Profile of Long-Term Debt $ Millions 500 Weighted average life of 9.6 years 400 200 100 | 0 of, SP PS PK » Ws a &
Slide 41: Long-Term Debt Mandatory Redemptions
Long-Term Debt Mandatory Redemptions $ Millions 500 400 300 200 100 0 p Z 2003 2004 2005 2006 OAPS mPNW © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 42: APS Mortgage
APS Mortgage Security Amount Callable 8.0% FMB due 2025 $ 33M 2103 7.25% FMB due 2023 54M 8/03 5.5% Tax-exempt FMB 25M 8/03 5.875% Tax-exempt FMB 154M 8/03 6.625% FMB due 2004 80M Matures 3/04 6.75% Fall-away bonds due 2006 84M - Total $430M © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation 10
Slide 43: 2003 & 2004 Financing Needs - Capital Markets
2003 & 2004 Financing Needs - Capital Markets = PNW « Bridge debt refinancing + $550M around August 1, 2003 + $215M in February 2004 + $25M private placement note in December 2003 - Current debt shelf capacity - $200M = APS « $125M unsecured note mandatory redemption in February 2004 « $80M FMB mand
Slide 44: 2003 & 2004 Financing Needs - Bank Markets
2003 & 2004 Financing Needs - Bank Markets = PNW commercial paper backup + $125M 364-day revolver renewal each November + $125M 3-year revolver renewal in November 2004 = APS « $250M revolver renewal in June 2003 (commercial paper backup) + Tax-exempt PC Bonds + $208M LOC renewals in 2003 « $127M an
Slide 45: PNW Bank Group
PNW Bank Group = Financially sound = Adiverse group of lenders + Size + Type « Services provided + Countries of origin = Strong bank relationships © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation 13
Slide 46: Bank Agreements - Other Terms & Conditions
Bank Agreements - Other Terms & Conditions = Covenants + Debt to capital test + Cash interest coverage test = Material adverse change (MAC) clauses = Noratings triggers = Off-balance sheet financing limited to 1986 Palo Verde 2 sale/leaseback © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation 14
Slide 47: Financing Focus
Financing Focus = Investment grade ratings = Continued access to capital and bank markets = Strong cash flow and coverages 15
Slide 48: Western Market Overview & Regulated Retail Business Update
Western Market Overview & Regulated Retail Business Update Jack Davis Analyst Conference October 18, 2002 & ¥3> PINNACLE WEST
Slide 49: Western Market Overview
Western Market Overview Transmission Paths & Constraints Market Manipulation Investigations Contract Restructuring Renegotiations Delays Federal Wholesale Regulatory Risks Developments. Power Plant Construction © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 50: Wholesale Electricity Prices
Wholesale Electricity Prices Palo Verde On-Peak & Off-Peak simwh 300 FERG Price Caps 250 4 Implemente: 200 150 FERC Price Caps to Increase 0+7c77 TT 2001 2002 2003 2004 — On-Peak Actuals - - - On-Peak Forwards Off-Peak Actual Off-Peak Forwards © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 51: Wholesale Gas Prices
Wholesale Gas Prices Permian Basin $immBTU 10 8 6 2001 2002 2003 2004 — Actuals - - - Forwards © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 52: Western Power Markets Spark Spreads
Western Power Markets Spark Spreads SiMWh 250 200 150 100 50 2001 2002 2003 2004 — On-Peak Actual - + - On-Peak Forwards Assumptions: Palo Verde electricity, Permian Basis natural gas, 7000 BTUIMWh heat rate © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 53: Major WECC Trading Hubs
Major WECC Trading Hubs
Slide 54: APS Load
APS Load Navajo Mead ATC Palo Verde Desert Basin Saguaro ATC = Available Transfer Capability (MW) © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 55: Market Manipulation Issues
Market Manipulation Issues a Pinnacle West/APS + Did not participate in manipulative practices + $5 million in net refunds due to PNW/APS in California as calculated by ISO and PX m= Pending issues + FERC gas methodology change vis-a-vis electricity prices + FERC judge’s order regarding El Paso’s ma
Slide 56: Western Market Overview
Western Market Overview Transmission Paths & Constraints Market Manipulation Investigations Contract Restructuring Renegotiations Delays Federal Wholesale Regulatory Risks Developments. Power Plant Construction © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 57: Regulated Retail Business Objectives
Regulated Retail Business Objectives Capitalize on Superior Customer Growth 10
Slide 58: Superior APS Retail Customer Growth
Superior APS Retail Customer Growth Percent 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 ALL 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Projected 0.0 + G@j_APS — Industry Average @ 2002 Pinnade West Capit illic
Slide 59: Regulated Retail Business Objectives
Regulated Retail Business Objectives Capitalize on Superior Customer Growth Maintain High, Customer Satisfaction @ 2002 Pinnade West Capit
Slide 60: Top-Tier Retail Customer Satisfaction
Top-Tier Retail Customer Satisfaction a! £2 =3 a4 a5 56 é 7 8 29 40 Overall Power Company Price Billing Customer Customer Quality & Image & & Service Satisfaction Reliability Value Payment Based on J.D. Power comparisons © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 61: Regulated Retail Business Objectives
Regulated Retail Business Objectives Capitalize on Superior Customer Growth Maintain High Customer Satisfaction @ 2002 Pinnade West Capit
Slide 62: Delivery Capital Expenditures
Delivery Capital Expenditures Support Reliability and Growth $ Millions 400 wii 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 ——Projected—— 15 © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 63: Regulated Retail Business Objectives
Regulated Retail Business Objectives Capitalize on Superior Customer Growth Maintain High Customer Satisfaction Achieve Constructive Regulatory Structure © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 64: Western Markets & Regulated Business - Overview Summary
Western Markets & Regulated Business - Overview Summary m= Superior retail customer growth continues m= Western market conditions provide challenges and opportunities = Achieving constructive regulatory structure remains a top priority 7 © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 65: Generation Strategies & Expansion
Generation Strategies & Expansion A Long Term View © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 66: Agenda
Agenda = Power plant development in the West = Generation strategies - along term view «+ Redhawk + Silverhawk = Pinnacle West competitiveness © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 67: New Generation Outlook
New Generation Outlook Mw [_JAnnouncea: 112,000 120,000 Hj pnw estimated Actual: 33,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 oO AZ S.Nevada S. West N. West Total WECC © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation _
Slide 68: Superior Growth in SW Continues
Superior Growth in SW Continues Peak Load Growth 2002 Per Year Arizona 14,180 MW 610 MW Southern Nevada 5,200 MW 180 MW Southwest 53,500 MW 1,720 MW Northwest 77,100 MW 1,760 MW WECC 130,600 MW 3,480 MW © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 69: Arizona & Nevada Plants
Arizona & Nevada Plants On Hold or Delayed Planned Construction On Hold Arizona 5,900 MW 2,800 MW Nevada 2,900 MW 1,200 MW © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 70: Declining Southwest Reserve Margin
Declining Southwest Reserve Margin No Build After 2004 25% 20% 15% | 10% _ ! 0%+ — 2 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Slide 71: Lows & Highs of Wholesale Market Price
Lows & Highs of Wholesale Market Price S/MWh Dry Hydro & Under Supply Wet Hydro & Pe Over Su| _-—— = ee Conservation =. — — upely. 1 LRMC Effect of Delaying 1,000 - 2,000 MW 2002 Year 2007 @ 2002 Pinnade West Capit
Slide 72: Market Conditions Favor More Upside Potential
Market Conditions Favor More Upside Potential Baseline - Normal Condition Assumptions Hot summer Load Gas Price High Gas Volatility One year in 10 Construction Hydro Growth Plan Lifetime IRR © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 73: Pinnacle West Generation Strategic Initiatives
Pinnacle West Generation Strategic Initiatives = Preserve construction flexibility consistent with market conditions = Maintain balanced fuel mix = Sustain operation and construction excellence = Manage risk presented by changing regulatory environment and dynamic market © 2002 Pinnade West Capital
Slide 74: Pinnacle West Profile - Regulated
Pinnacle West Profile - Regulated = APS Generation « Coal 1,712 MW « Gas / Oil 1,189 MW « Nuclear 1,087 MW © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation 10
Slide 75: Pinnacle West Profile - Unregulated
Pinnacle West Profile - Unregulated West Phoenix 4 Redhawk 1 & 2 Saguaro CT3 West Phoenix 5 Silverhawk Redhawk 3 & 4 Capacity In-Service MW. 06/01 112 07/02 1,060 07/02 80 06/03 530 05/04 570 2006-07 600+ © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation “
Slide 76: Power Agreements
Power Agreements a West Phoenix 4, Saguaro 3, Redhawk 1 & 2 contracted to APS through end of year 2002 = Expect to extend APS agreement to middle of 2003 = Silverhawk- 25% output to SNWA = Bid to Nevada loads a Will bid to APS and California loads 12 © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 77: Redhawk Cost Competitive with Area Merchants
Redhawk 1 & 2 Cost Competitive with Area Merchants Redhawk I @ Fuel O Other Cash Costs © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation 13
Slide 78: West Phoenix CC5 (530 MW)
West Phoenix CC5 (530 Mw) = Inservice - June 2003 = Ideally located in Phoenix metro area = Improves system reliability 14 © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation
Slide 79: Silverhawk (570 MW)
Silverhawk (570 Mw) | = Inservice - May 2004 = Strategic timing « Southern Nevada needs 3,700 MW’s « Area new build 2,000 MW’s by 2004 = High growth sub-region = Superior transmission * 16
Slide 80: Silverhawk (cont.)
Silverhawk (cont.) a Growing market = Diverse fuel supply = Available gas line capacity = Transmission access to multiple markets © 2002 Pinnade West Capital Corporation 16
Slide 81: Silverhawk Cost Competitive with Area Merchants
Slide 82: Redhawk 3 & 4 - Gas Turbines
Slide 83: Redhawk 3 & 4 Options
Slide 84: Reduced Capital Expenditures for Generation Expansion
Slide 85: Summary
Slide 86: Pinnacle West Marketing & Trading
Slide 87: Overall Objectives
Slide 88: Department Profile
Slide 89: Power Marketing & Trading Realized Pretax Gross Margin
Slide 90: Infrastructure and Control
Slide 91: Positive MTM Exposure to Thirteen Troubled Energy Counterparties
Slide 92: Market Landscape
Slide 93: Performance Assessment - Managing Fuel & Purchase Power Cost for APS Retail Load
Slide 94: Performance Assessment: Marketing & Trading Pretax Gross Margin
Slide 95: Looking Forward External Drivers
Slide 96: Looking Forward Native Load Hedging Activities
Slide 97: Looking Forward Wholesale Marketing & Trading
Slide 98: Western Power Markets Spark Spreads
Slide 99: Pinnacle West Marketing & Trading Conclusion
Slide 100: APS Energy Services
Slide 101: Overview
Slide 102: APS Energy Services Business Objective
Slide 103: Strategies To Sustain Profitability
Slide 104: Strategies to Maintain Key Arizona Relationships
Slide 105: Strategies to Influence Competitive Market Rules
Slide 106: Increasing Market Opportunities
Slide 107: Challenges
Slide 108: Business Line Highlights
Slide 109: Future Sustainable Earnings Drivers
Slide 110: SunCor Review
Slide 111: SunCor's Approach
Slide 112: Market and SunCor Status 2002
Slide 113: Market & SunCor Status: 2002 SunCor Investment
Slide 114: Market & SunCor Status: Residential Market
Slide 115: 1999 Palm Valley Area
Slide 116: 2002 Palm Valley Area
Slide 117: Market & SunCor Status: Commercial / Retail
Slide 118: Market & SunCor Status: Golf Courses
Slide 119: Market & SunCor Status
Slide 120: SunCor 2003-2006
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