Slide 1: Q3 2024 Results Presentation
Q3 2024 Results Presentation November 6, 2024
Slide 2: Forward Looking Statements
Forward Looking Statements Forward Looking Statements Certain statements and other information included in this presentation, including under the sections "Financial Guidance" and "Market Outlook", constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looki
Slide 3: Forward Looking Statements (continued)
Forward Looking Statements Forward Looking Statements (continued) Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control and are difficult to predict, which could cause actual results or events to differ materially from results or events e
Slide 4: Financial Highlights
Financial Highlights Q3 2024 YTD vs Q3 2023 YTD Q3 2024 YTD Results Highlights $0.6B Net Earnings • Retail adjusted EBITDA increased, supported by higher product margins in North America. $4.3B Adjusted EBITDA1 • Potash adjusted EBITDA decreased due to lower net selling prices, partially offset by r
Slide 5: Strategic Focus
Strategic Focus Advancing high-return downstream Retail growth opportunities Increased proprietary crop nutrients gross margins in the first nine months of 2024 Delivering upstream fertilizer sales volume growth Raised full-year 2024 Potash sales volume guidance to 13.5 to 13.9Mmt Taking a focused a
Slide 6: Retail Results – Q3 2024
Retail Results – Q3 2024 Gross Margin US$ Millions Variance Highlights Lower Crop Nutrients • Reduced field activity in North America that contributed to lower sales volumes $895 • Lower international per-tonne margins $859 Higher Crop Protection Products • Timing of supplier programs • Sell through
Slide 7: Retail Results – Q3 2024 YTD
Retail Results – Q3 2024 YTD Gross Margin US$ Millions Variance Highlights Higher Crop Nutrients • Higher per-tonne margins including proprietary crop nutritional/biostimulants $3,635 Higher Crop Protection Products $3,441 • Timing of supplier programs • Sell through of higher cost inventory in ‘23
Slide 8: Potash Results – Q3 2024
Potash Results – Q3 2024 Gross Margin US$ Millions Variance Highlights Lower average net selling price • Decline in benchmark prices $583 Higher sales volumes $462 • Supported by low channel inventories • Strong potash affordability in North America and key offshore markets Q3'23 Average Net Sales C
Slide 9: Potash Results – Q3 2024 YTD
Potash Results – Q3 2024 YTD Gross Margin US$ Millions Variance Highlights Lower average net selling price • Decline in benchmark prices $1,936 Higher sales volumes • Supported by low channel inventories $1,314 • Strong potash affordability in North America and key offshore markets Q3'23 YTD Average
Slide 10: Nitrogen Results – Q3 2024
Nitrogen Results – Q3 2024 Gross Margin US$ Millions Variance Highlights Higher average net selling price • Stronger ammonia benchmark prices $212 Higher sales volumes • Higher production $154 • Strong demand for solutions, nitrates, and sulfates Higher COGS • Higher natural gas costs in Trinidad, Q
Slide 11: Nitrogen Results – Q3 2024 YTD
Nitrogen Results – Q3 2024 YTD Gross Margin US$ Millions Variance Highlights Lower average net selling price • Weaker benchmark prices in the first half $1,094 of 2024 $897 Lower COGS • Lower natural gas costs across all operating regions Q3'23 YTD Average Net Sales COGS Other Nitrogen & Q3'24 YTD S
Slide 12: Financial Guidance
N Financial Guidance d »
Slide 13: Financial and Operational Guidance
Financial and Operational Guidance 2024 Annual Guidance1 Ranges as of November 6, 2024 August 7, 2024 (billions of US dollars, except as otherwise noted) Low High Low High Retail adjusted EBITDA 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.7 Potash sales volumes (million tonnes)2 13.5 13.9 13.2 13.8 2 Nitrogen sales volumes (mill
Slide 14: Retail Adjusted EBITDA, Market Outlook and Assumptions
Retail Adjusted EBITDA, Market Outlook and Assumptions Retail Adjusted EBITDA US$ Billions $2.29 Market Outlook and Assumptions • Favorable growing conditions in the US have supported expectations for $1.94 record US corn and soybean yields and significant soil nutrient removal in 2024. $1.60 $1.43
Slide 15: Potash Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions
Potash Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions 2024 Potash Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity1 US$ Billions 4.0 Market Outlook and Assumptions Sensitivity Range 3.5 • We raised 2024 global potash shipment forecast to 70 to 72Mmt primarily driven by stronger expected demand in Brazil and Southeast Asia.
Slide 16: Nitrogen Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions
Nitrogen Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions 2024 Nitrogen Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity1 US$ Billions 3.5 Market Outlook and Assumptions Sensitivity Range 3.0 • Global ammonia prices have been supported by supply outages, project delays and higher European natural gas values. 2.5 • Chinese ur
Slide 17: Phosphate Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions
Phosphate Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions 2024 Phosphate Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity1 US$ Billions 0.7 Market Outlook and Assumptions Sensitivity Range • Global phosphate markets remain tight supported by Chinese export 0.6 restrictions and production outages in the US. 0.5 • We anticipa
Slide 18: Disciplined Approach to Capital Expenditures
Disciplined Approach to Capital Expenditures Capital Expenditures US$ Billions Investing Capital Priorities • Retail: high value proprietary products $2.7B categories, network optimization and digital $2.2B - $2.3B capabilities $2.0B - $2.1B • Potash: mine automation projects that enhance productivi
Slide 19: Market Outlook
Market Outlook 19
Slide 20: Global grain ending stocks remain below historical average levels
Global grain ending stocks remain below historical average levels Global Grains Ending Stocks & Stocks/Use Ratio1 Ending Stocks (Mmt) Stocks/Use Ratio (%) 400 Grain Ending Stocks for RoW US Grain Ending Stocks Global Stocks/Use Ratio 20% 350 300 15% 250 200 10% 150 100 5% 50 0 0% 2016/17 2017/18 201
Slide 21: Prices of key global crops remain strong, while US crop prices are similar to historical average
Prices of key global crops remain strong, while US crop prices are similar to historical average US Corn Avg. Realized Price1,2 US Soybean Avg. Realized Price1,2 US Wheat Avg. Realized Price1,2 US$/bushel US$/bushel US$/bushel $10.80 $6.16 $10.56 $10.35 $5.77 $5.70 $4.41 $4.28 $4.10 10-year Avg. 202
Slide 22: Crop input costs have declined supporting grower affordability and prospective cash margins
Crop input costs have declined supporting grower affordability and prospective cash margins Key Crop Grower Cash Margins1,2,5 US Corn Cash Selling Price & Costs1,3,4 USD/acre, CAD/acre, BRL/Ha US$/bushel US Corn US Soybeans US Wheat US Cotton CAN Canola BRZ Soybeans $7.00 460 4,500 $6.00 360 3,600 $
Slide 23: Nitrogen and potash affordability is at favorable levels supporting demand
Nitrogen and potash affordability is at favorable levels supporting demand US Corn/Nitrogen Ratio US Corn/Phosphate Ratio US Corn/Potash Ratio bu/acre Corn to purchase 1 acre of Nitrogen application bu/acre Corn to purchase 1 acre of Phosphate application bu/acre Corn to purchase 1 acre of Potash ap
Slide 24: Raised global potash shipment forecast range to 70 to 72 million tonnes in 2024
Raised global potash shipment forecast range to 70 to 72 million tonnes in 2024 and expect further demand growth in 2025 Potash Demand Millions of Tonnes KCl 20 15 10 5 0 21 22 23 24F 25F 21 22 23 24F 25F 21 22 23 24F 25F 21 22 23 24F 25F 21 22 23 24F 25F 21 22 23 24F 25F India Other Asia North Amer
Slide 25: Increased demand in 2024 to be met from Canada, Russia, and Belarus
We anticipate increased demand in 2024 to be met from producers in Canada, Russia, and Belarus Potash Production in Selected Regions Millions of Tonnes KCl 25 2022 2023 2024F 20 15 10 5 0 1 Canada Russia Belarus Europe Middle East China Other 1. Includes production from Latin America, Laos, the US,
Slide 26: Estimated global marginal cost of potash supply is rising and Nutrien is well positioned
Estimated global marginal cost of potash supply is rising and Nutrien is well positioned Delivered Cash Cost of Potash to Brazil1,2 US$ per Tonne Marginal Cost Drivers $600 Short-Run Marginal Costs Long-Run Marginal Costs • The short-run marginal cost of potash supply is increasing due to inflation
Slide 27: North American natural gas prices remain advantaged compared to Europe and Asia
North American natural gas prices remain advantaged compared to Europe and Asia 2024 Key Global Natural Gas Prices1 2024 Global Urea Production Cost Curve2 US$/MMBtu US$/tonne FOB $12 $450 Canada China Coal $400 $10 US Other $350 $8 $300 $250 $6 $200 $4 $150 $100 $2 $50 $0 $0 Canada US Europe Asia L
Slide 28: US nitrogen inventory estimated well below average levels
US nitrogen inventory estimated well below average levels US Nitrogen Inventory Levels (September 30 Ending1) Millions of Tonnes Product 1.6 Ammonia Urea UAN 2019-2023 Avg. 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 1.
Slide 29: Expect lower Chinese fertilizer exports compared to historical average
Expect lower Chinese fertilizer exports compared to historical average China DAP/MAP Exports China Urea Exports Millions of Tonnes Millions of Tonnes 12 6 10 8 4 6 4 2 2 0 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 29 Source: CRU, Argus, Nutrien
Slide 30: Thank You!
Thank You! For more information, please visit: www.nutrien.com facebook.com/nutrienltd linkedin.com/company/nutrien youtube.com/nutrien @nutrienltd